Vaalco Energy (EGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $575.51M
• Dividend Yield: 7.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: -23.00%
• EPS Growth: -68.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 230
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 104,258,255
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,903,753
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,349,599
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.05
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.19
• 1Y Price Target: $7.50
• Price Target Upside: 35.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.36
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $412.60M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(8.70% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is driven mainly by strong cash flow and a solid balance sheet despite a weak TTM earnings picture, alongside constructive technical momentum. Earnings call guidance and operational catalysts support the outlook, while the negative P/E (net losses) and elevated 2026 CapEx/cost pressures temper the rating.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Strong operating cash flow and a positive free cash flow print provide durable internal funding for operations, dividends and reinvestment. Over multiple years adjusted EBITDAX and cash generation support capital programs and reduce reliance on dilutive financing, strengthening long-term financial flexibility.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Moderate leverage, a sizeable equity base, available reserves-based lending and positive cash on hand create a resilient liquidity profile. Low net debt and an under‑utilized RBL reduce refinancing risk and support execution of capital-intensive projects without overly stressing solvency.

Portfolio Expansion & Operated Growth

Gaining operator positions and expanding West Africa activity increases control over drilling schedules, capex allocation and value capture. The Baobab FPSO restart and stepped-up Gabon drilling are structural catalysts expected to lift production and improve reserve optionality into 2027 and beyond.

Negative Factors

Earnings Volatility

Large top-line decline and a TTM net loss highlight earnings cyclicality inherent to E&P and sensitivity to prices, production disruptions, and impairments. Persistent volatility can complicate planning, weaken ROE durability, and limit consistent returns to shareholders during adverse commodity cycles.

Elevated Near-Term CapEx

Substantial 2026 capital spending and higher-than-expected FPSO refurbishment costs increase funding needs and tighten free cash flow headroom near-term. Even with strong cash generation, sustained high capex raises execution and funding risk and could pressure liquidity if production ramps are delayed.

Rising Production Costs

Per‑barrel operating cost increases compress long-term netbacks and reduce resilience to lower price environments. Higher unit costs combined with modest proved reserve declines mean lower margin sustainability per unit of resource, making cash generation more sensitive to downside price scenarios.

Vaalco Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas. The company holds Etame production sharing contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore in the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. It also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa. VAALCO Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Vaalco primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons (mainly crude oil) from its operated and non-operated upstream assets and selling that production into the market. Revenue is largely driven by: (1) production volumes attributable to Vaalco’s working interests (net of royalties and other host-government or contractual burdens where applicable), (2) realized commodity prices for crude oil and natural gas (which can differ from benchmark prices based on oil quality, sales terms, regional differentials, and timing), and (3) the company’s cost structure (lifting/operating costs, transportation and logistics, and development spending) which affects operating netbacks and cash flow. As an E&P company, earnings are influenced by factors such as field performance, successful drilling and development results, downtime and operational reliability, and the ability to manage capital expenditures relative to production and prices. Partnerships and joint venture arrangements (e.g., with national oil companies and other working-interest owners) can affect both revenue and costs through shared ownership, cost recovery mechanisms, and operatorship responsibilities; however, specific partnership details are null.

Vaalco Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Results are mixed: the income statement is weak (TTM revenue down ~28.9% and a swing to a net loss), but the balance sheet is a relative strength (moderate leverage with ~0.29 debt-to-equity) and cash flow is strong (TTM operating cash flow ~$212.7M and positive free cash flow ~$56.7M). The score reflects solid liquidity/cash generation offset by meaningful earnings volatility.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a meaningful deterioration: revenue declined ~28.9% versus the prior year and the company swung to a net loss (net margin about -13.9%) after being profitable in 2021–2024. Profitability has also compressed versus the strong 2022–2024 period (gross margin down from ~36.0% in 2024 to ~31.5% TTM). The primary positive is that operating profitability appears more resilient than the bottom line suggests (EBITDA margin ~29.2% TTM), but overall earnings volatility and the sharp top-line decline weigh heavily on the score.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains a relative strength with moderate leverage: debt-to-equity is ~0.29 in TTM (up from ~0.20 in 2024), and equity is sizeable at ~$443.5M against ~$128.4M of total debt. Total assets are stable (~$913.4M TTM vs ~$955.0M in 2024), suggesting no major balance sheet contraction. The key weakness is the swing to a negative return on equity in TTM, reflecting the current earnings downturn rather than excessive leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong in TTM: operating cash flow of ~$212.7M is solid and improved versus 2024 (~$113.7M), and free cash flow is positive at ~$56.7M with a sharp rebound (free cash flow growth ~154.5%). This is a notable improvement from periods of weaker/negative free cash flow (e.g., 2022). The main caution is that free cash flow is not consistently high year-to-year, and with TTM net losses, cash flow versus accounting earnings can look favorable but may not be as durable if operating conditions weaken.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Mar 2023	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	359.27M	478.99M	455.07M	354.33M	199.07M
Gross Profit	82.20M	172.45M	186.61M	193.52M	96.76M
EBITDA	156.59M	286.56M	276.54M	173.49M	101.03M
Net Income	-41.39M	57.78M	60.35M	51.89M	81.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	913.38M	954.95M	823.22M	855.64M	263.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.90M	82.65M	121.11M	37.20M	48.67M
Total Debt	128.44M	98.17M	90.80M	89.06M	10.23M
Total Liabilities	469.69M	453.37M	344.43M	389.54M	118.79M
Stockholders Equity	443.50M	501.58M	478.78M	466.11M	144.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-43.22M	10.72M	126.37M	-31.05M	11.05M
Operating Cash Flow	212.67M	113.72M	223.60M	128.85M	50.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-255.89M	-102.12M	-97.22M	-123.21M	-39.06M
Financing Cash Flow	12.38M	-43.05M	-56.82M	-17.95M	-57.00K

Vaalco Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.26, above the 50-day MA of 4.80, and above the 200-day MA of 3.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EGY.

Vaalco Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SD	77 Outperform	$621.24M	7.56	14.41%	3.19%	29.52%	41.02%
GPRK	68 Neutral	$500.78M	7.68	16.86%	6.49%	-26.63%	-66.89%
EGY	66 Neutral	$575.51M	-9.15	-8.46%	7.20%	-23.00%	-68.20%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
GFR	63 Neutral	$746.15M	10.14	16.30%	―	-21.67%	251.59%
SJT	61 Neutral	$228.85M	-632.04	-211.83%	―	-99.78%	-103.13%
ANNA	48 Neutral	$215.29M	12.87	-23.43%	―	―	-985.28%

Vaalco Energy Corporate Events

Vaalco Energy Reports 2025 Results, Details Growth Plans

Vaalco Energy reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 12, 2026, showing production and sales volumes above increased guidance but a full-year net loss of $41.4 million and adjusted net loss of $4.0 million. The company generated $173.4 million in adjusted EBITDAX, $212.7 million in operating cash flow, ended 2025 with around $1 million of net debt, booked 43.0 MMBOE of proved reserves with positive revisions, secured a new reserves-based lending facility, and continued reducing Egyptian receivables while returning $26.5 million to shareholders in 2025.

Operationally, Vaalco advanced its Gabon Phase Three drilling program, completed the Etame 15H-ST1 development well that came onstream in January 2026, and used pilot and exploration well results to plan further development and workovers at Etame, SEENT and Ebouri, alongside a 3D seismic survey on the Niosi and Guduma blocks completed in early 2026. In Egypt, a drilling campaign running from December 2024 through late 2025 delivered four Eastern Desert development wells and an exploration success in the H-Field, while continuous workovers supported production and a new Côte d’Ivoire FPSO refurbishment for Baobab was completed in February 2026 with the vessel expected back on location and the field targeted to restart in the second quarter of 2026.

Looking ahead, the company has been confirmed as operator with a 60% working interest in the Kossipo field on the CI-40 Block in Côte d’Ivoire, divested all Canadian properties in February 2026 for $25.5 million, and set a 2026 capital budget of $290 million to $360 million covering Gabon, Baobab Phase 5 drilling, Egypt and completion of the Baobab FPSO project. Management highlighted that Vaalco has transformed over five years from a single-asset producer of about 5,000 barrels per day to a diversified, multi-country operator aiming for 50,000 BOEPD and projecting substantial organic production growth by 2030, positioning the company for continued operational expansion and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (EGY) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vaalco Energy stock, see the EGY Stock Forecast page.

Vaalco Energy Divests Canadian Assets to Refocus Portfolio

On February 4, 2026, Vaalco Energy’s Canadian subsidiary agreed to sell substantially all of its Canadian land assets and related liabilities, acquired in its October 2022 TransGlobe business combination, to Petrus Resources for about C$35 million (US$25.6 million) in cash, with closing expected within 30 days, subject to customary conditions. The divested non-core Canadian properties, effective February 1, 2026 and producing roughly 1,850 BOEPD, had generated C$82 million in operational cash flow since acquisition and are being sold at 2.7 times trailing 12‑month operational cash flow, a move management says will not affect the company’s borrowing base and is intended to sharpen focus and capital allocation on Vaalco’s core, higher‑upside assets for the benefit of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (EGY) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vaalco Energy stock, see the EGY Stock Forecast page.