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Great Elm Group (GEG)
NASDAQ:GEG

Great Elm Group (GEG) AI Stock Analysis

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GE

Great Elm Group

(NASDAQ:GEG)

Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼( -3.85% Downside)
Great Elm Group's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial position with continuous net losses and cash flow difficulties. While the earnings call provided a positive outlook with growth in assets under management and strategic initiatives, the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. Technical indicators offer mixed signals, suggesting potential for short-term volatility. Investors should weigh the company's operational challenges against its strategic growth initiatives.

Great Elm Group (GEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Great Elm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreat Elm Group (GEG) is a diversified holding company with operations primarily in the investment management and real estate sectors. The company focuses on acquiring and managing a portfolio of operating businesses and investments, leveraging its expertise to drive growth and deliver value to shareholders. Through its subsidiaries, GEG engages in various activities including asset management, real estate investments, and other strategic business interests.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreat Elm Group generates revenue through a combination of asset management fees, investment income, and real estate operations. In its investment management segment, GEG earns fees based on assets under management and performance incentives from managing investment funds and accounts. The company's real estate segment contributes to revenue through rental income from owned properties and potential capital gains from property sales. Additionally, GEG may invest in strategic business opportunities that can provide further financial returns. Key factors influencing the company's earnings include market conditions, the performance of its investment portfolio, and the operational efficiency of its real estate holdings.

Great Elm Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Great Elm Group shows signs of financial stabilization with improved gross margins and manageable debt levels. However, the company faces challenges in achieving consistent profitability and positive operational cash flows. Strategic improvements may be necessary to enhance financial performance and strengthen cash flow generation.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows fluctuating revenues with a recent decline from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin improved in TTM to 34.3%, indicating better cost management. However, net profit margin remains extremely low at 0.02% in TTM, reflecting minimal profitability. Historical EBIT and EBITDA margins have been inconsistent, demonstrating operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio in TTM is 0.60, indicating manageable debt levels relative to equity. The equity ratio stands at 45.0%, suggesting a solid equity base. However, asset base and equity have shrunk compared to previous years, indicating potential strategic or operational adjustments.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flows show volatility with negative operating cash flow in TTM, raising concerns about operational efficiency. Free cash flow has improved to $1.42M in TTM, indicating some level of cash generation capability. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash conversion issues.
Breakdown
TTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
19.20M17.83M8.66M67.97M60.85M64.10M
Gross Profit
3.15M977.00K-1.53M4.27M4.61M11.37M
EBIT
-2.69M-7.84M-11.21M-4.11M-3.69M667.00K
EBITDA
6.34M4.60M21.91M-13.15M6.77M2.06M
Net Income Common Stockholders
3.00K-1.39M27.73M-15.04M-9.33M-13.13M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
108.68M116.50M117.37M73.43M74.92M49.22M
Total Assets
138.49M140.45M135.89M168.09M161.87M195.44M
Total Debt
63.85M61.18M63.44M73.92M29.61M112.26M
Net Debt
16.99M10.67M3.27M50.32M5.23M71.74M
Total Liabilities
68.43M70.25M72.05M125.83M97.96M130.76M
Stockholders Equity
62.33M62.71M63.84M33.50M54.36M60.79M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.42M-15.55M-2.43M22.73M-25.95M4.54M
Operating Cash Flow
-5.48M-15.55M-2.37M29.28M-18.98M13.39M
Investing Cash Flow
21.19M2.27M83.96M-40.05M-15.48M-6.63M
Financing Cash Flow
-9.53M2.84M-47.62M9.98M18.34M21.78M

Great Elm Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.08
Price Trends
50DMA
1.93
Positive
100DMA
1.88
Positive
200DMA
1.85
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Negative
RSI
69.14
Neutral
STOCH
89.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.95, above the 50-day MA of 1.93, and above the 200-day MA of 1.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEG.

Great Elm Group Risk Analysis

Great Elm Group disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Great Elm Group reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
The replacement of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) may affect the funds we manage and our results of operations and financial results. Q2, 2023

Great Elm Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
64
Neutral
$12.67B9.747.58%17015.08%12.21%-6.96%
GEGEG
50
Neutral
$58.12M-2.28%64.34%70.95%
OMOMI
47
Neutral
$494.16M-49.91%2.84%-828.91%
47
Neutral
$17.67M1.75-23.21%
41
Neutral
$72.27M24.14-27.52%-8.63%-202.31%
40
Underperform
$6.00M-27.69%-4.87%94.14%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GEG
Great Elm Group
2.08
0.28
15.56%
RDGT
Ridgetech
0.97
-1.88
-65.96%
OMI
Owens & Minor
6.45
-10.84
-62.70%
ZYXI
Zynex
2.39
-7.72
-76.36%
SNYR
Synergy CHC
1.96
1.84
1533.33%

Great Elm Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 8.33%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook for Great Elm Group, highlighted by significant growth in assets under management, increased revenues, and strategic acquisitions. However, the net loss and decrease in adjusted EBITDA due to market volatility present challenges that the company expects to overcome as conditions stabilize.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Growth in Assets Under Management
Fee-paying AUM increased by 15% year-over-year, reaching approximately $565 million, driven by Great Elm Capital Corp.'s equity and debt issuances.
Revenue Increase
Total revenue for the fiscal third quarter grew 15% year-over-year to $3.2 million, primarily due to increased revenues from real estate project management fees and rental income.
Strategic Acquisition and Expansion
Launched Monomoy Construction Services by acquiring Greenfield CRE, enhancing the real estate platform and creating revenue and operational synergies.
Strong Cash Position
Ended the quarter with approximately $32 million in cash, positioning the company well for future growth and investment opportunities.
GECC Performance
GECC generated record total investment income of $12.5 million in Q1 2025, supported by strong cash flows from its CLO JV, and increased base management fees by over 40% year-over-year.
Share Buyback Program
Repurchased approximately 4.8 million shares for $8.7 million at an average cost of $1.84 per share, a 15% discount to the quarter-end book value per share of $2.14.
Negative Updates
Net Loss for the Quarter
Reported a net loss of $4.5 million for the quarter, primarily driven by unrealized losses related to investments in CoreWeave and GECC shares due to broader market volatility.
Decrease in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $0.5 million from $1.2 million in the prior year period.
Company Guidance
During the Great Elm Group's Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Conference Call, significant metrics highlighted included a 15% year-over-year increase in fee-paying assets under management (AUM), reaching approximately $565 million, primarily driven by Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC), which raised about $147 million through equity and debt issuances. The company's total revenue grew by 15% to $3.2 million, and base management fees from GECC increased by over 40% to $1.3 million. The firm reported a net loss of $4.5 million for the quarter, attributed mainly to unrealized losses in investments, yet maintained a strong cash position with approximately $32 million. Furthermore, the company executed a $20 million share buyback program, repurchasing roughly 4.8 million shares at an average cost of $1.84 each, representing a 15% discount to the quarter-end book value per share of $2.14.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.