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Great Elm Group
(NASDAQ:GEG)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(14.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/12/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile underlying profitability (including a large TTM net loss) despite improved leverage and a recent cash-flow rebound. Technicals are moderately constructive in the near term, while valuation is pressured by a negative P/E and no stated dividend. The latest earnings call adds support via liquidity, deleveraging/refinancing improvements, and buybacks, but near-term results and AUM declines remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Refinancing / Leverage Reduction
Eliminating near-term maturities and repurchasing funded debt meaningfully reduces refinancing risk and interest-rate pressure over the medium term. This deleveraging improves financial flexibility, supports capital deployment and buybacks, and materially lowers short-term funding and liquidity stress.
Negative Factors
Volatile Profitability
Large, persistent swings from high margins in sporadic periods to deep TTM losses indicate weak earnings quality and unpredictable profitability. This volatility undermines internal capital generation, complicates strategic planning, and raises the risk that losses persist over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Refinancing / Leverage Reduction
Eliminating near-term maturities and repurchasing funded debt meaningfully reduces refinancing risk and interest-rate pressure over the medium term. This deleveraging improves financial flexibility, supports capital deployment and buybacks, and materially lowers short-term funding and liquidity stress.
Read all positive factors
Great Elm Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGreat Elm Group (GEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$67.42M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)86.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth16.30%
EPS Growth-1069.55%
CountryUS
Employees50
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.68
Shares Outstanding31,357,008
10 Day Avg. Volume54,651
30 Day Avg. Volume86,928
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.81
Price to Sales (P/S)3.51
P/FCF Ratio-6.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit114.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.31
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Great Elm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Great Elm Group, Inc., an asset management company, focuses on the credit, real estate, specialty finance, and other alternative strategies businesses. It also engages in business development and investment management activities. The company was f...
How the Company Makes Money
GEG makes money primarily by earning fees tied to managing and advising investment products and strategies (e.g., investment management/advisory fees calculated as a percentage of assets under management and, where applicable, incentive/performanc...
Great Elm Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of strategic progress and near-term challenges. Management highlighted meaningful balance sheet improvements (deleveraging, no debt maturities until 2029), a deliberate shift into higher-quality first-lien secured credit (now ~75%), strong execution in the real estate platform (Monomoy acquisitions and fee growth), continued upside from CoreWeave, a healthy cash position (~$45.5M), and an active share repurchase program (total authorization $40M with ~$24.4M remaining). Offsetting these positives were significant noncash unrealized losses (~$9.8M) related to GECC holdings that contributed to a wider net loss ($13.5M), a negative adjusted EBITDA (−$1.6M), and declines in fee-paying AUM (−7%) and total AUM (−3%). Overall, strategic actions and liquidity position put the company on a constructive path, while sector volatility and mark-to-market impacts pressure near-term reported results.Positive Updates
Strengthened Balance Sheet and Reduced Refinancing Risk
Called and repurchased all near-term funded debt, leaving GECC with no debt maturities until 2029 and substantially delevering the capital structure, reducing near-term refinancing risk.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Mark-to-Market Losses Driving Net Loss
Reported net loss of $13.5 million for the quarter versus a net loss of $4.5 million a year ago, primarily driven by approximately $9.8 million of unrealized losses (including consolidated funds) largely related to holdings in GECC common stock and related SPVs.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strengthened Balance Sheet and Reduced Refinancing Risk
Called and repurchased all near-term funded debt, leaving GECC with no debt maturities until 2029 and substantially delevering the capital structure, reducing near-term refinancing risk.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that its near-term priority is to protect and grow NAV (ahead of income) while scaling fee‑paying AUM and its alternative credit and real estate platforms; key metrics cited include $45.5M of cash and cash equivalents, estimated fee‑paying AUM of $528M (AUM $744M), Q3 revenue of $3.4M (+7% YoY), a Q3 net loss of $13.5M (vs. $4.5M) largely from $9.8M of unrealized losses, adjusted EBITDA of -$1.6M (vs. +$0.5M), and nearly 75% of GECC’s corporate credit in first‑lien positions after calling/repurchasing all near‑term funded debt and leaving GECC with no debt maturities until 2029; other metrics tied to the strategy include the Great Elm Credit Income Fund remaining ~$7M invested after a >20% net return through 3/31/26, Monomoy CRE fees of ~ $1M (+>20% YoY), Monomoy REIT deploying ~$28M across 5 acquisitions, Monomoy Construction Services adding $0.7M revenue, CoreWeave distributions of $6.8M on a $5M investment, and an expanded $40M buyback authorization (repurchased ~1.4M shares this quarter at $2.04 avg; 7.8M repurchased to‑date at $2 avg, $15.6M deployed, ~$24.4M remaining).Great Elm Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.82M | 16.32M | 17.83M | 8.66M | 4.52M | 60.85M |
| Gross Profit | 772.00K | -108.00K | 977.00K | -1.53M | -2.10M | 33.53M |
| EBITDA | -16.62M | 21.04M | 4.60M | 21.91M | -13.15M | 655.00K |
| Net Income | -22.93M | 12.89M | -1.39M | 27.73M | -14.89M | -7.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 111.78M | 153.94M | 140.45M | 135.89M | 168.09M | 161.87M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 83.94M | 109.45M | 116.50M | 117.37M | 72.12M | 74.92M |
| Total Debt | 63.49M | 62.59M | 61.18M | 63.44M | 70.80M | 40.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 71.94M | 73.27M | 70.25M | 72.05M | 125.83M | 106.44M |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.84M | 70.32M | 62.71M | 63.84M | 33.50M | 43.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.46M | -9.01M | -15.55M | -2.43M | 28.45M | -25.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.46M | -9.01M | -15.55M | -2.37M | 29.28M | -18.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 11.54M | -1.34M | 2.27M | 83.96M | -40.02M | -15.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.46M | -8.77M | 2.84M | -47.62M | 9.95M | 18.34M |
Great Elm Group Technical Analysis
Negative
2.18
Price Trends
2.23
Negative
2.14
Positive
2.24
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
46.88
Neutral
17.18
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.18, below the 50-day MA of 2.23, and below the 200-day MA of 2.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEG.
Great Elm Group Risk Analysis
Great Elm Group disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Great Elm Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Great Elm Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
54 Neutral | $67.42M | -3.16 | -38.27% | ― | 16.30% | -1069.55% | |
43 Neutral | $7.92M | -0.07 | 1545.09% | ― | -51.59% | -25.99% | |
40 Underperform | $3.59M | >-0.01 | 41.78% | ― | 10.16% | 98.05% | |
40 Underperform | $2.46M | -0.10 | 91.30% | ― | -17.53% | -221.57% |
* Financial Sector Average
GEG
Great Elm Group
2.15
0.05
2.38%
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0.92
-188.08
-99.52%
SNYR
Synergy CHC
0.17
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WGRX
Wellgistics Health Inc
1.99
-33.36
-94.37%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.