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Great Elm Group (GEG)
NASDAQ:GEG

Great Elm Group (GEG) AI Stock Analysis

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GE

Great Elm Group

(NASDAQ:GEG)

Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-12.28%Downside)
Great Elm Group faces significant financial challenges, as evidenced by declining revenues and ongoing net losses. While there is some positive technical momentum, valuation concerns and a negative P/E ratio weigh heavily. The earnings call provides a glimmer of optimism with strategic growth initiatives, but the overall outlook remains cautious.

Great Elm Group (GEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Great Elm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreat Elm Group, Inc. engages in the durable medical equipment and investment management businesses. The company distributes respiratory care equipment, including positive air pressure equipment and supplies, ventilators and oxygen equipment, and replacement parts, as well as provides sleep study services; and rents medical equipment. It also offers investment management services. The company was formerly known as Great Elm Capital Group, Inc. and changed its name to Great Elm Group, Inc. in December 2020. Great Elm Group, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreat Elm Group makes money through a combination of its operating subsidiaries and investment activities. In the healthcare sector, the company generates revenue primarily from its durable medical equipment business, which involves the sale or rental of respiratory-related products and services to patients, insurers, and healthcare providers. In addition, GEG earns income through its investment management division by managing assets for third-party clients and collecting management and performance-based fees. The company's diverse revenue streams are supported by strategic acquisitions and partnerships, which enhance its market position and operational capabilities.

Great Elm Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 18.75%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook for Great Elm Group, highlighted by significant growth in assets under management, increased revenues, and strategic acquisitions. However, the net loss and decrease in adjusted EBITDA due to market volatility present challenges that the company expects to overcome as conditions stabilize.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Growth in Assets Under Management
Fee-paying AUM increased by 15% year-over-year, reaching approximately $565 million, driven by Great Elm Capital Corp.'s equity and debt issuances.
Revenue Increase
Total revenue for the fiscal third quarter grew 15% year-over-year to $3.2 million, primarily due to increased revenues from real estate project management fees and rental income.
Strategic Acquisition and Expansion
Launched Monomoy Construction Services by acquiring Greenfield CRE, enhancing the real estate platform and creating revenue and operational synergies.
Strong Cash Position
Ended the quarter with approximately $32 million in cash, positioning the company well for future growth and investment opportunities.
GECC Performance
GECC generated record total investment income of $12.5 million in Q1 2025, supported by strong cash flows from its CLO JV, and increased base management fees by over 40% year-over-year.
Share Buyback Program
Repurchased approximately 4.8 million shares for $8.7 million at an average cost of $1.84 per share, a 15% discount to the quarter-end book value per share of $2.14.
Negative Updates
Net Loss for the Quarter
Reported a net loss of $4.5 million for the quarter, primarily driven by unrealized losses related to investments in CoreWeave and GECC shares due to broader market volatility.
Decrease in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $0.5 million from $1.2 million in the prior year period.
Company Guidance
During the Great Elm Group's Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Conference Call, significant metrics highlighted included a 15% year-over-year increase in fee-paying assets under management (AUM), reaching approximately $565 million, primarily driven by Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC), which raised about $147 million through equity and debt issuances. The company's total revenue grew by 15% to $3.2 million, and base management fees from GECC increased by over 40% to $1.3 million. The firm reported a net loss of $4.5 million for the quarter, attributed mainly to unrealized losses in investments, yet maintained a strong cash position with approximately $32 million. Furthermore, the company executed a $20 million share buyback program, repurchasing roughly 4.8 million shares at an average cost of $1.84 each, representing a 15% discount to the quarter-end book value per share of $2.14.

Great Elm Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Great Elm Group's financial performance is struggling, with declining revenues and continuous net losses impacting its income statement. Despite a moderate level of stability from reasonable equity levels, the negative returns and cash flow challenges highlight significant profitability issues.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement reveals a struggling performance with declining total revenues in the TTM, down from previous years. Gross Profit Margin stands at a modest 33.5%, signaling some ability to manage costs relative to revenue. However, the Net Profit Margin is negative due to continuous net losses, indicating poor bottom-line profitability. The negative EBIT and EBITDA margins further highlight operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet presents a mixed picture. The Debt-to-Equity ratio is 0.66, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is negative due to net losses, raising concerns about shareholder value creation. However, the Equity Ratio stands at 41.7%, suggesting a reasonable level of equity to support assets, which provides some financial stability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow in the TTM, reflecting challenges in generating cash after capital expenditures. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is negative, indicating cash outflows in operations. However, improvements in free cash flow compared to previous periods suggest some attempts at better cash management.
Breakdown
TTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
19.63M17.83M8.66M67.97M60.85M64.10M
Gross Profit
6.57M977.00K-1.53M4.27M4.61M11.37M
EBIT
-5.33M-7.84M-11.21M-4.11M-3.69M667.00K
EBITDA
2.69M4.60M21.91M-13.15M6.77M2.06M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-1.39M-1.39M27.73M-15.04M-9.33M-13.13M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
31.53M116.50M117.37M73.43M74.92M49.22M
Total Assets
137.19M140.45M135.89M168.09M161.87M195.44M
Total Debt
37.56M61.18M63.44M73.92M29.61M112.26M
Net Debt
6.03M10.67M3.27M50.32M5.23M71.74M
Total Liabilities
71.88M70.25M72.05M125.83M97.96M130.76M
Stockholders Equity
57.23M62.71M63.84M33.50M54.36M60.79M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.29M-15.55M-2.43M22.73M-25.95M4.54M
Operating Cash Flow
-8.19M-15.55M-2.37M29.28M-18.98M13.39M
Investing Cash Flow
6.15M2.27M83.96M-40.05M-15.48M-6.63M
Financing Cash Flow
-4.07M2.84M-47.62M9.98M18.34M21.78M

Great Elm Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.28
Price Trends
50DMA
2.01
Positive
100DMA
1.94
Positive
200DMA
1.89
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Negative
RSI
70.91
Negative
STOCH
85.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.14, above the 50-day MA of 2.01, and above the 200-day MA of 1.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.91 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEG.

Great Elm Group Risk Analysis

Great Elm Group disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Great Elm Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
The replacement of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) may affect the funds we manage and our results of operations and financial results. Q2, 2023

Great Elm Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
64
Neutral
$12.73B9.927.90%78.88%12.06%-7.95%
GEGEG
51
Neutral
$62.31M-2.28%64.34%70.95%
OMOMI
49
Neutral
$571.54M-49.91%2.84%-828.91%
47
Neutral
$19.92M2.37-23.21%
42
Neutral
$72.88M24.14-27.52%-8.63%-202.31%
40
Underperform
$6.92M-27.69%-4.87%94.14%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GEG
Great Elm Group
2.28
0.53
30.29%
RDGT
Ridgetech
1.08
-1.30
-54.62%
OMI
Owens & Minor
7.34
-8.83
-54.61%
ZYXI
Zynex
2.49
-6.25
-71.51%
SNYR
Synergy CHC
2.65
2.53
2108.33%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.