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Taylor Wimpey
(LSE:TW)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
84.00 p
▲(1.47% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/03/26
The score reflects strong financial resilience from a conservative balance sheet and supportive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield), offset by materially weaker profitability/margins and cautious-to-negative near-term earnings call signals (lowered completions guidance, pricing pressure, rising build costs, and reduced distribution policy). Technically, the stock’s weak trend below key moving averages further limits the score.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Taylor Wimpey's very low leverage and sharply reduced absolute debt provide durable financial flexibility. A conservative balance sheet lowers refinancing risk, funds remediation and land activity from internal resources, and supports investment through housing cycles without forced asset disposals.
Negative Factors
Sustained margin compression and earnings decline
Material and persistent margin and profit declines have reduced the earnings base and ROE. Lower profitability limits reinvestment and discretionary spend, constrains recovery levers in weaker markets, and makes long-term return generation more dependent on structural margin repairs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Taylor Wimpey's very low leverage and sharply reduced absolute debt provide durable financial flexibility. A conservative balance sheet lowers refinancing risk, funds remediation and land activity from internal resources, and supports investment through housing cycles without forced asset disposals.
Read all positive factors
Taylor Wimpey (TW) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£2.88B
Dividend Yield9.02%
Average Volume (3M)24.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth9.47%
EPS Growth193.33%
CountryUK
Employees4,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding3,485,856,700
10 Day Avg. Volume23,091,232
30 Day Avg. Volume24,810,876
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.70
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio26.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£85.70Price Target Upside3.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)£3.81B
Taylor Wimpey Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Taylor Wimpey Plc operates as a residential developer. It engages in land acquisition, home and community design, urban regeneration and the development of supporting infrastructure. It operates through the United Kingdom and Housing Spain segment...
How the Company Makes Money
Taylor Wimpey primarily makes money by building and selling newly constructed homes to private buyers. Revenue is recognised from the legal completion of home sales, with pricing driven by local housing demand, product mix, and build costs. A seco...
Taylor Wimpey Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear operational progress — outlet growth, planning momentum, WIP improvements, disciplined procurement and a resilient balance sheet — against notable near-term headwinds: margin and profit declines, pricing weakness, rising build cost inflation, a reduced shareholder distribution policy and a downgraded completions range. Management emphasized disciplined execution and capital efficiency to preserve value and position the business for a medium-term recovery, but near-term financial metrics remain under pressure.Positive Updates
Revenue and Sales Orders
Group revenue increased to GBP 1.68bn in H1 2026 and the order book at 28 June stood at GBP 1.9bn representing 6,882 homes; private average selling price (ASP) rose (private ASP c. GBP 371,000, up from GBP 350,000 year-on-year) and blended U.K. ASP excluding JVs increased 6.7% to GBP 334,000.
Negative Updates
Margin and Profit Declines
Gross profit decreased to GBP 254m, down 10% year-on-year; gross margin fell 200 basis points to 15.1%; adjusted operating profit fell to GBP 130m from GBP 161m (down ~19%), with adjusted operating margin down 200 basis points to 7.7%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Sales Orders
Group revenue increased to GBP 1.68bn in H1 2026 and the order book at 28 June stood at GBP 1.9bn representing 6,882 homes; private average selling price (ASP) rose (private ASP c. GBP 371,000, up from GBP 350,000 year-on-year) and blended U.K. ASP excluding JVs increased 6.7% to GBP 334,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated guidance that U.K. completions are now expected to be 10,600–10,800 homes, with blended U.K. average selling prices ~1% ahead of last year (affordable c.21% of completions) even as underlying pricing runs c.2% below prior year and was c.1.5% down in H1; build cost inflation is now expected to be c.3–4% for the full year (2.5% in H1). H1 financials included group revenue £1.68bn, gross profit £254m (15.1% gross margin, -200bps), adjusted operating profit £130m (7.7% margin, -200bps), and an H1 order book of £1.9bn (6,882 homes). Operational and balance-sheet metrics/guidance include average outlets 219 in H1 (39 openings vs 32 last year), WIP per outlet down 6% to c.£9.3m, net private sales rate 0.75/site/week (vs 0.79, -5%), cancellation rate 14%, H1 cash generation from adjusted operating profit £130m and cash from operations £52m, net cash down to £169m at H1 and expected to reach ~£250m year‑end (assuming ~£100m cladding outflows), JV profit guidance £4m for the year, remediation spend expected ~£100m (H1 £36m), and a revised distribution policy of 4% of NAV (2% ordinary dividend plus 2% buybacks/incrementals) down from 7.5%.Taylor Wimpey Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.87B | 3.84B | 3.40B | 3.51B | 4.42B | 4.28B |
| Gross Profit | 629.80M | 658.40M | 647.60M | 716.50M | 1.13B | 1.03B |
| EBITDA | 389.30M | 427.30M | 360.00M | 511.90M | 866.50M | 720.80M |
| Net Income | 248.90M | 100.40M | 219.60M | 349.00M | 643.60M | 555.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.92B | 6.07B | 6.29B | 6.25B | 6.48B | 6.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 254.80M | 429.60M | 647.40M | 764.90M | 952.30M | 921.00M |
| Total Debt | 126.00M | 124.00M | 121.00M | 126.80M | 115.50M | 111.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.79B | 1.88B | 1.89B | 1.73B | 1.98B | 1.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.12B | 4.19B | 4.41B | 4.52B | 4.50B | 4.31B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 190.00M | 141.00M | 189.60M | 122.70M | 475.40M | 427.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 194.20M | 145.20M | 193.00M | 129.60M | 477.50M | 431.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.30M | -22.50M | 73.90M | 27.40M | 33.60M | -10.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -333.00M | -343.60M | -352.30M | -342.80M | -482.40M | -321.70M |
Taylor Wimpey Technical Analysis
Positive
82.78
Price Trends
80.26
Positive
81.31
Positive
91.50
Negative
Market Momentum
0.83
Negative
56.97
Neutral
87.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.35, above the 50-day MA of 80.26, and below the 200-day MA of 91.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:TW.
Taylor Wimpey Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | £3.23B | 10.65 | 8.79% | ― | -4.15% | -10.17% | |
69 Neutral | £2.36B | 16.20 | 4.43% | 3.64% | 13.29% | 7.12% | |
68 Neutral | £789.30M | 5.86 | 4.20% | ― | -4.38% | 100.09% | |
67 Neutral | £4.39B | 20.39 | 2.73% | 5.80% | 28.95% | 43.50% | |
67 Neutral | £3.67B | 12.24 | 8.05% | 5.42% | 17.38% | 18.92% | |
65 Neutral | £2.88B | 12.03 | 5.99% | 9.21% | 9.47% | 193.33% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GB:TW
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.