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Bellway (GB:BWY)
LSE:BWY

Bellway (BWY) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:BWY

Bellway

(LSE:BWY)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
2,829.00p
▲(5.72% Upside)
Bellway's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, indicating robust growth and strategic capital allocation. However, technical indicators suggest short-term bearish momentum, and valuation metrics imply potential overvaluation. The company's ability to address cash flow challenges and navigate slower trading conditions will be crucial for future performance.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant increase in volume and operating profit indicates robust demand and effective operational execution, supporting long-term growth.
Strong Balance Sheet
A strong balance sheet with low gearing enhances financial stability and provides flexibility for strategic investments and growth initiatives.
Capital Allocation Strategy
The strategic focus on capital efficiency and shareholder returns indicates a commitment to sustainable growth and value creation.
Negative Factors
Slower Trading Environment
The slower trading environment reflects softer market conditions, which could impact revenue growth and profitability in the near term.
Cost Inflation
Persistent cost inflation pressures margins, potentially affecting profitability and necessitating cost management strategies.
Build Safety Provision Increase
Increased provisions for build safety indicate ongoing legacy issues that could impact financial performance and require additional resources.

Bellway (BWY) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Bellway Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBellway p.l.c., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the home building business in the United Kingdom. The company builds and sells homes ranging from one-bedroom apartments to six-bedroom family homes, as well as provides homes to housing associations for social housing. It offers homes under Bellway and Ashberry brands. The company was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyBellway generates revenue primarily through the sale of newly built residential properties. The company earns money by purchasing land, obtaining planning permissions, and developing housing units that are then sold to individual buyers, investors, and housing associations. Key revenue streams include the sale of private homes, affordable housing sales, and partnerships with local authorities for development projects. Additionally, Bellway benefits from the Help to Buy scheme in the UK, which incentivizes first-time buyers and can lead to increased sales. The firm's strategic focus on high-demand areas with strong housing market fundamentals, along with its efficient construction processes, contributes to its profitability.

Bellway Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 14, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a robust performance with significant volume and profit growth, supported by strategic capital allocation and shareholder returns. However, challenges remain due to slower trading conditions and ongoing cost pressures.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Volume Growth and Operating Profit Increase
Volume increased by 14% to 8,749 homes, and operating profit rose to GBP 303 million, indicating strong performance.
Private Output Growth
Private output grew by 20.3% to 6,924 homes, supporting overall volume growth.
Increase in Average Selling Price
The average selling price (ASP) increased by 2.8% to GBP 316,000, aligning with expectations.
Share Buyback Announcement
A GBP 150 million share buyback was announced, reflecting confidence in cash generation and shareholder returns.
Capital Allocation Framework
Introduction of a new capital allocation framework focused on driving asset efficiency and shareholder value.
Improvement in Overhead Recovery
Increased volume output and revenue led to a 50 basis point improvement in overhead recovery.
Strong Order Book
The order book consists of 5,300 homes valued at GBP 1.5 billion, with 65% forward sold for FY '26.
Negative Updates
Slower Trading Environment
Trading since April was slower, with sales rates between 0.5 and 0.6 per outlet, reflecting softer market conditions.
Social Output Decline
Social output decreased by 3.7% to 1,825 homes as the proportion of social completions reduced.
Build Safety Provision Increase
A net increase of GBP 37.4 million in the build safety provision due to higher legacy building works.
Cost Inflation as Margin Headwind
Ongoing low single-digit spot cost inflation and embedded cost inflation in work-in-progress (WIP) are headwinds to margin.
Challenges in Southeast and Southwest Markets
Pricing pressure and incentives are needed in slower Southeast and Southwest markets.
Company Guidance
During the call, Bellway provided guidance on several key metrics for the fiscal year 2026. The company targets a volume of around 9,200 homes, with 20% being social housing. The average selling price (ASP) is expected to be approximately GBP 320,000, driven mainly by mix changes. Operating margin is anticipated to be stable at around 11%, similar to FY '25. The company plans to maintain its dividend cover at 2.5x and has announced a GBP 150 million share buyback program, indicating strong cash generation. Additionally, Bellway is focused on improving its return on capital employed by enhancing capital efficiency and intends to increase the proportion of homes constructed using timber frames to about 30% by FY 2030. The balance sheet remains robust, with net cash at GBP 42 million and low gearing, including land creditors, at 8.3%.

Bellway Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Bellway shows a solid financial position with strong revenue growth and stable profitability. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, but cash flow management needs attention due to recent declines in free cash flow.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Bellway has demonstrated a strong revenue growth rate of 9.71% in the latest year, recovering from previous declines. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have shown resilience, although they are slightly below industry averages. The EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate stable operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, reflecting prudent financial management and low leverage risk. Return on equity is moderate, suggesting reasonable profitability. The equity ratio indicates a strong capital structure with a high proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow situation is mixed, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash from operations to cover its net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.78B2.78B2.38B3.41B3.54B3.12B
Gross Profit456.80M456.80M367.00M687.30M787.00M651.90M
EBITDA251.40M251.40M225.10M510.20M314.70M486.80M
Net Income157.50M157.50M130.50M365.00M242.60M390.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.19B5.19B5.00B5.11B4.99B4.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments171.80M171.80M119.50M362.00M375.30M460.30M
Total Debt220.50M487.70M130.00M513.80M540.60M603.00M
Total Liabilities1.64B1.64B1.53B1.65B1.62B1.39B
Stockholders Equity3.56B3.56B3.47B3.46B3.37B3.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow134.10M134.10M-66.90M243.40M60.70M429.60M
Operating Cash Flow146.00M146.00M-65.50M246.10M61.20M432.90M
Investing Cash Flow-19.70M-19.70M-8.00M-18.20M19.10M5.20M
Financing Cash Flow-74.00M-74.00M-169.00M-241.20M-165.30M-29.20M

Bellway Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2676.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2654.17
Positive
100DMA
2508.73
Positive
200DMA
2525.04
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.97
Positive
RSI
53.13
Neutral
STOCH
70.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BWY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2676 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2680.23, above the 50-day MA of 2654.17, and above the 200-day MA of 2525.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BWY.

Bellway Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£4.24B16.507.44%4.54%16.74%-0.16%
70
Outperform
£3.70B10.5210.27%6.38%-6.44%-0.03%
67
Neutral
£5.26B27.372.80%4.73%33.83%15.11%
65
Neutral
£3.14B20.164.49%2.62%16.91%20.93%
65
Neutral
£3.68B43.401.97%8.95%4.21%-65.57%
63
Neutral
£2.00B-206.12-0.31%-0.57%-104.08%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:BWY
Bellway
2,682.00
354.74
15.24%
GB:BTRW
Barratt Redrow
373.20
-40.17
-9.72%
GB:BKG
The Berkeley Group Holdings
3,882.00
37.61
0.98%
GB:VTY
Vistry Group
626.60
63.60
11.30%
GB:PSN
Persimmon
1,336.00
204.09
18.03%
GB:TW
Taylor Wimpey
104.25
-6.25
-5.66%

Bellway Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Bellway Announces Key Board and Executive Appointments
Neutral
Aug 12, 2025

Bellway p.l.c. has announced the appointment of Gill Barr as an independent Non-Executive Director, effective from 15 September 2025. Barr will join the Audit, Nomination, and Remuneration Committees and will become Chair of the Remuneration Committee in April 2026. Her extensive experience in marketing and management across various industries, including her roles at The Co-operative Group and John Lewis, is expected to bring valuable insights to the board. Additionally, Phil Hope has been appointed as the new Company Secretary, succeeding Simon Scougall. Hope, who has been with Bellway for 15 years, brings significant corporate governance and listed company experience to his new role.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BWY) stock is a Buy with a £3646.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bellway stock, see the GB:BWY Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Bellway Reports Strong Growth in Housing Completions and Revenue for FY25
Positive
Aug 12, 2025

Bellway p.l.c. reported a strong performance for the year ending 31 July 2025, with a 14.3% increase in housing completions and a 17% rise in housing revenue. The company achieved an average selling price of £316,000 and improved its operating margin to nearly 11%. Bellway’s forward order book increased to 5,307 homes, supported by a robust land bank and a disciplined approach to land acquisition. The company is well-positioned for further growth in FY26, with plans to increase volume output to around 9,200 homes. Despite market challenges, Bellway remains confident in its ability to deliver long-term growth and enhanced shareholder returns, supported by recent government planning reforms.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BWY) stock is a Buy with a £3646.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bellway stock, see the GB:BWY Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Bellway Announces Updated Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Aug 1, 2025

Bellway p.l.c. has announced that as of July 31, 2025, its issued share capital consists of 118,991,699 ordinary shares with voting rights, excluding shares held by the Bellway Employee Benefit Trust, which has waived its voting rights. This results in a total of 118,621,602 voting rights for the company, potentially impacting shareholder influence and decision-making processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BWY) stock is a Buy with a £3646.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bellway stock, see the GB:BWY Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Bellway Announces New Director Appointment
Positive
Jul 21, 2025

Bellway PLC has announced a change in the appointments of Sarah Whitney, a non-executive and senior independent director. Sarah Whitney will join Regional REIT Limited as an independent non-executive director starting from August 4, 2025, and will also serve on several key committees. This appointment reflects Bellway’s strategic alignment and the strengthening of its leadership team, potentially impacting its governance and stakeholder relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BWY) stock is a Buy with a £3646.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bellway stock, see the GB:BWY Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Bellway Joins UK Housebuilders in CMA Commitments for Affordable Housing
Neutral
Jul 9, 2025

Bellway p.l.c. has engaged with the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) by offering voluntary commitments, alongside six other UK housebuilders, to address potential concerns in the housebuilding sector. As part of these commitments, Bellway will contribute £13.5 million to government programs supporting affordable housing, without admitting any wrongdoing. The CMA has not determined any competition law infringement, and Bellway is committed to working constructively with the authority.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BWY) stock is a Buy with a £3646.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bellway stock, see the GB:BWY Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Bellway Updates on Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Jul 3, 2025

Bellway p.l.c. announced that as of 30 June 2025, its ordinary issued share capital consists of 118,988,622 ordinary shares with voting rights. The Bellway Employee Benefit Trust holds 370,097 of these shares but has waived its voting rights and dividend entitlements, resulting in a total of 118,618,525 voting rights. This update on voting rights and capital structure provides stakeholders with clarity on the company’s share distribution and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BWY) stock is a Buy with a £3646.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bellway stock, see the GB:BWY Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Bellway Reports Strong Trading Performance and Growth Outlook
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

Bellway p.l.c. reported robust trading performance from February to June 2025, with increased customer confidence and reservation rates. The company expects to deliver between 8,600 and 8,700 homes for the financial year, with an anticipated operating margin of 11%. The forward order book has grown by 7.7%, and the average selling price is expected to rise to £315,000 due to changes in product mix. Bellway’s disciplined approach to land acquisition has resulted in the purchase of 6,759 plots, supporting its long-term growth ambitions. The company is fully sold for the current financial year and aims for a 20% cumulative volume growth by July 2026, focusing on capital efficiency and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BWY) stock is a Buy with a £3646.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bellway stock, see the GB:BWY Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Bellway PLC Announces Current Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Bellway PLC has announced that its ordinary issued share capital consists of 118,985,070 ordinary shares, each with voting rights, as of May 30, 2025. The Bellway Employee Benefit Trust holds 370,097 of these shares but has waived its rights to vote and receive dividends, resulting in a total of 118,614,973 voting rights. This update reflects the company’s current capital structure and its implications for shareholder voting power.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:BWY) stock is a Buy with a £3646.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bellway stock, see the GB:BWY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025