Bellway (BWY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £3.16B
• Dividend Yield: 2.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 259.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.60
• Revenue Growth: -11.63%
• EPS Growth: -31.81%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 2,659
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.90
• Shares Outstanding: 118,983,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 280,000
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 259,627
• PEG Ratio: 1.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -202.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,765.50
• Price Target Upside: 4.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Bellway's overall stock score reflects its robust balance sheet and positive future guidance, tempered by current operational challenges and high valuation. The strong order book and strategic land position provide a foundation for future growth, but declining income and cash flow require improvements. Technical indicators suggest mixed short-term trends, while the valuation highlights potential overvaluation concerns. The earnings call provides a slightly positive outlook, emphasizing growth potential despite existing challenges.

Positive Factors

Leadership

The new CFO, Shane Doherty, has set improving capital efficiency as a key priority to accelerate the recovery of returns.

Sales Performance

Improvement in sales rates and pricing has been observed in four of its regions.

Negative Factors

Valuation

Shares trade at a 14% discount to the sector on price to book, reflecting a relatively weaker post-tax RoE.

Bellway Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bellway (BWY) is one of the largest residential property developers in the United Kingdom, engaged in the design, construction, and sale of homes across the country. The company primarily operates in the housing and real estate sector, offering a wide range of properties, from affordable housing to luxury homes. Bellway is known for its commitment to quality construction, sustainable development practices, and customer satisfaction, making it a significant player in the UK housing market.

How the Company Makes Money

Bellway makes money primarily through the sale of newly constructed residential properties. The company's revenue model is centered around acquiring land, obtaining necessary planning permissions, and developing these sites into residential communities. Bellway's key revenue streams include the sale of homes, which range from apartments to detached houses, catering to various market segments from first-time buyers to luxury home seekers. The company also generates income from partnerships with housing associations for affordable housing projects, which are often subsidized or supported by government schemes. Additionally, Bellway may engage in joint ventures or strategic partnerships to expand its development capabilities and market reach. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as housing demand, real estate market trends, government policies, and economic conditions.

Bellway Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bellway exhibits a mixed financial performance. While the balance sheet remains strong, demonstrating financial stability and low leverage, the income statement and cash flow statement indicate areas of concern. Declining revenues and profitability, along with negative cash flow trends, suggest the need for strategic initiatives to drive growth and improve operational efficiency. Emphasis on cash flow management and profitability enhancement will be crucial for Bellway's future financial health.

Income Statement

Bellway's income statement reveals a decline in revenue from the previous year, with a substantial decrease in net income. The gross profit margin stands at 15.4% and the net profit margin at 5.5%, both lower than industry expectations. The EBIT margin is 8.9%, showing challenges in maintaining operating efficiency. The revenue growth rate is negative, indicating a contraction compared to the prior year. Overall, the income statement reflects a need for strategic improvements to regain growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Bellway's balance sheet remains strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, indicating prudent financial management and low leverage risk. The return on equity is 3.8%, which suggests moderate effectiveness in using equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is robust at 69.3%, showing a stable financial structure. However, the decline in equity from the previous year warrants attention to sustain this position.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows negative free cash flow growth, indicating challenges in generating cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, suggesting inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. Improvements in cash management strategies are essential to enhance liquidity and financial flexibility.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.54B	2.38B	3.41B	3.54B	3.12B	2.23B
	Gross Profit
397.70M	367.00M	687.30M	787.00M	651.90M	422.20M
	EBIT
237.20M	212.80M	545.10M	653.00M	531.80M	324.80M
	EBITDA
243.40M	223.70M	510.20M	314.70M	486.80M	255.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
146.90M	130.50M	365.00M	242.60M	390.70M	192.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
122.00M	119.50M	362.00M	375.30M	460.30M	51.40M
	Total Assets
5.08B	5.00B	5.11B	4.99B	4.68B	4.08B
	Total Debt
130.00M	130.00M	513.80M	540.60M	603.00M	410.70M
	Net Debt
8.00M	10.50M	151.80M	165.30M	142.70M	359.30M
	Total Liabilities
1.55B	1.53B	1.65B	1.62B	1.39B	1.09B
	Stockholders Equity
3.52B	3.47B	3.46B	3.37B	3.29B	2.99B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-15.90M	-66.90M	243.40M	60.70M	429.60M	-65.90M
	Operating Cash Flow
-9.40M	-65.50M	246.10M	61.20M	432.90M	-57.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
-14.00M	-8.00M	-18.20M	19.10M	5.20M	-18.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-65.60M	-169.00M	-241.20M	-165.30M	-29.20M	-74.10M

Bellway Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2654.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BWY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2654 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2682.83, above the 50-day MA of 2479.99, and above the 200-day MA of 2616.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 54.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BWY.

Bellway Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSN	77 Outperform	£4.23B	15.83	7.71%	4.54%	15.42%	4.45%
TW	77 Outperform	£4.16B	18.95	4.92%	8.04%	-3.22%	-37.21%
BKG	74 Outperform	£4.15B	11.58	11.03%	1.60%	0.39%	-17.64%
VTY	65 Neutral	£1.92B	27.59	2.27%	―	6.04%	-66.96%
BWY	64 Neutral	£3.16B	21.44	4.22%	2.03%	-11.63%	-31.81%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.84B	11.23	3.09%	3.95%	2.66%	-25.23%
BTRW	60 Neutral	£6.54B	43.75	1.81%	3.78%	4.78%	-53.59%

Bellway Corporate Events

Bellway Updates on Share Capital and Voting Rights

Bellway p.l.c. announced that as of April 30, 2025, its issued share capital comprises 118,983,388 ordinary shares with voting rights. The Bellway Employee Benefit Trust holds 370,097 of these shares but has waived its voting rights and dividend entitlements. Consequently, the total number of voting rights in the company is 118,613,291. This update is significant for stakeholders as it clarifies the company’s voting rights structure, potentially impacting shareholder decisions and company governance.

Bellway Enhances Employee Incentive Schemes with Share Purchase

Bellway p.l.c. announced that its Employee Benefit Trust (EBT) purchased 44,983 ordinary shares at £22.075 per share to support its share incentive schemes for employees, including executive directors and other key personnel. This move underscores Bellway’s commitment to employee engagement and retention, while the EBT now holds a total of 370,097 shares, contributing to the company’s strategic human resource initiatives.

Bellway Announces Updated Voting Rights and Share Capital

Bellway p.l.c. has announced that as of March 31, 2025, its ordinary issued share capital consists of 118,983,388 ordinary shares with voting rights, with no shares held in Treasury. The Bellway Employee Benefit Trust holds 325,114 ordinary shares but has waived its voting rights and dividend entitlements, resulting in a total of 118,658,274 voting rights for Bellway p.l.c.

Bellway PLC Reports Strong Interim Results with Growth in Housing Completions

Bellway PLC reported a robust performance for the first half of the financial year ending January 31, 2025, with housing completions rising by 11.9% and revenue increasing by 12.3% compared to the same period last year. The company is on track to deliver at least 8,500 homes for the full year, supported by a strong forward order book and a well-capitalized balance sheet. The increase in private reservation rates and a strategic expansion of its land bank position Bellway well for multi-year growth, despite challenges in the planning system. The interim dividend per share rose by 31.3%, reflecting confidence in future growth prospects.

Bellway Announces Updated Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure

Bellway p.l.c. has announced its current issued share capital, which consists of 118,982,550 ordinary shares with voting rights, as of February 28, 2025. The Bellway Employee Benefit Trust holds 325,114 of these shares but has waived its voting rights and dividend entitlements, resulting in a total of 118,657,436 voting rights. This update is crucial for stakeholders as it clarifies the company’s voting structure and share distribution, potentially impacting shareholder decisions and market perceptions.