Tribal Group plc (TRB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £156.40M
• Dividend Yield: 1.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 193.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: 3.48%
• EPS Growth: 318.89%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 867
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 214,379,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 56,875
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 193,332
• PEG Ratio: 4.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: 79.00p ▲(17.04% Upside)

Tribal Group plc's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive corporate events, which are offset by neutral technical indicators and fair valuation. The company's solid financial base and strategic management incentives position it well for future growth, though operational efficiency and liquidity should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Recurring revenue model & education focus

Tribal's license/subscription and consultancy mix creates recurring, contract-based revenue with high client switching costs in higher education. Institutional maintenance and multi-year deals support predictable cash flows, customer retention and upsell potential, aiding durable top-line stability.

Strong cash generation and improving FCF

An OCF-to-net-income ratio of 2.32 and a return to positive free cash flow in 2024 show robust cash conversion. Sustained cash generation enables reinvestment in product development, funds strategic initiatives and reduces dependence on external capital, supporting medium-term financial resilience.

Low leverage and solid equity base

Low leverage and a ~45% equity ratio provide financial flexibility and cushioning against downturns. With ROE around 10.7%, the capital structure supports measured investment or M&A without materially increasing risk, enhancing long-term solvency and strategic optionality.

Negative Factors

Contracting EBIT margin

A declining EBIT margin to 7.66% suggests operational efficiency headwinds or increased investment costs. Persistent margin compression would limit operating leverage, reduce funds available for reinvestment or shareholder returns, and make profit growth more dependent on cost control than revenue expansion.

Decreased cash reserves / liquidity risk

Despite strong cash generation metrics, falling cash reserves reduce the company's buffer for seasonal working capital, delayed receivables or one-off expenditures. This weaker liquidity position could force short-term financing, constrain strategic moves, or raise refinancing risk during stress periods.

Concentration in education sector

Heavy exposure to higher education and related institutional customers concentrates revenue risk. Public funding cycles, procurement timelines and budget pressures can create revenue cyclicality and slow sales conversion, limiting diversification benefits and amplifying sector-specific downturns over time.

Tribal Group plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tribal Group plc, through its subsidiaries, provides education related systems, solutions, and consultancy services in the United Kingdom, Australia, other Asia Pacific, North America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Student Information Systems (SIS) and Education Services (ES). The SIS segment offers software, and maintenance and support services; and deploys and configures software solutions, asset management, and information managed services for its customers. The ES segment offers inspection and review services that support the assessment of educational delivery, as well as a portfolio of performance improvement tools and services, including analytics. The company serves higher education, further education, vocational institutions, colleges, training providers, employers, and school sectors, as well as government and state bodies. Tribal Group plc was founded in 1999 and is based in Bristol, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Tribal Group generates revenue through the sale of software licenses, subscription services, and consultancy fees. The company's primary revenue streams include the licensing of its software products to educational institutions, which often involves upfront fees as well as recurring maintenance and support charges. Additionally, Tribal offers consultancy services that assist institutions in implementing their software solutions and optimizing their operational processes, generating further income. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with educational organizations and technology firms, which can enhance its market reach and provide additional revenue opportunities through collaborative projects.

Tribal Group plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tribal Group plc exhibits a solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and strong cash flow generation. The company's low leverage and solid equity base contribute to its financial stability. However, slightly declining EBIT margins and reduced cash reserves highlight areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Tribal Group plc has shown a consistent increase in revenue over the past years, with a revenue growth rate of 4.97% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 48.33% for 2024, reflecting effective cost management. The net profit margin improved to 6.10%, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin decreased slightly to 7.66%, suggesting a slight dip in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19 in 2024 signifies a low level of leverage, which is a positive sign of financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is 10.66%, showcasing decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is 45.52%, indicating a solid equity base. However, the decrease in cash and cash equivalents may pose liquidity challenges.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.32, demonstrating robust cash generation relative to profits. The free cash flow growth rate is noteworthy, turning positive in 2024, which signals improved financial health and potential for reinvestment. However, the substantial capital expenditures in previous years could impact future cash flows.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	90.35M	90.01M	85.75M	83.58M	81.15M	72.95M
Gross Profit	43.41M	42.53M	41.39M	31.34M	41.81M	38.63M
EBITDA	15.06M	11.22M	11.24M	4.87M	12.45M	12.93M
Net Income	8.05M	5.49M	5.29M	-510.00K	6.99M	6.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	107.09M	113.07M	113.64M	103.07M	97.35M	85.03M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.16M	5.29M	6.80M	2.89M	5.92M	9.52M
Total Debt	9.11M	9.61M	16.03M	7.73M	2.33M	3.57M
Total Liabilities	52.14M	61.60M	65.16M	58.25M	51.01M	46.81M
Stockholders Equity	54.96M	51.47M	48.48M	44.82M	46.34M	37.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	12.05M	8.01M	-1.35M	-4.98M	3.10M	-2.02M
Operating Cash Flow	12.48M	12.71M	7.51M	6.11M	13.89M	5.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.07M	-4.68M	-8.71M	-12.03M	-16.91M	-9.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.18M	-9.22M	5.35M	2.85M	-406.00K	-3.27M

Tribal Group plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 67.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TRB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.18, above the 50-day MA of 63.74, and above the 200-day MA of 52.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.93 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:TRB.

Tribal Group plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRB	70 Outperform	£156.40M	19.36	15.34%	1.71%	3.48%	318.89%
KNOS	70 Outperform	£1.22B	40.62	23.28%	2.85%	2.15%	-39.26%
SKL	69 Neutral	£66.30M	60.66	17.89%	0.77%	14.64%	916.67%
IDOX	66 Neutral	£323.75M	51.82	8.06%	1.04%	10.93%	12.30%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NET	61 Neutral	£197.76M	47.35	9.59%	0.80%	22.80%	-32.13%
RM	46 Neutral	£110.48M	-74.51	-3.40%	―	-14.23%	97.27%

Tribal Group plc Corporate Events

Tribal Group Exceeds Financial Expectations and Strengthens Market Position

Tribal Group plc has announced a strong financial performance for the year ending December 2025, driven by its Student Information Solutions division and growth in Etio. The company expects to exceed market expectations for revenue and adjusted EBITDA, resulting in a significant improvement in its cash position, transitioning from a net debt of £3.2 million to a net cash position of at least £5 million. This financial strength has enabled Tribal to declare a special dividend and further solidify its recurring revenue model through the successful roll-out of its subscription pricing model for higher education customers. This positions Tribal well for sustained growth and continued momentum in transforming into a full-service SaaS business.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TRB) stock is a Buy with a £69.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tribal Group plc stock, see the GB:TRB Stock Forecast page.

Tribal Group Announces Total Voting Rights Update

Tribal Group plc has announced that its issued share capital consists of 214,379,896 ordinary shares with voting rights, as per the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. This update is crucial for shareholders to determine their interest in the company’s share capital, reflecting Tribal’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance in the international education market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TRB) stock is a Buy with a £69.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tribal Group plc stock, see the GB:TRB Stock Forecast page.

Tribal Group plc Grants 750,000 Share Options Under Long Term Incentive Plan

Tribal Group plc has announced the granting of 750,000 nil cost options over ordinary shares to certain Persons Discharging Management Responsibility under the company’s 2022 Long Term Incentive Plan. These options, which represent approximately 0.35% of the company’s issued shares, are subject to performance conditions based on the company’s Key Performance Indicators over three years and will vest in equal parts over three years, with exercise allowed from October 2028. This move is part of Tribal’s strategy to align management incentives with company performance, potentially impacting its operational focus and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TRB) stock is a Buy with a £69.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tribal Group plc stock, see the GB:TRB Stock Forecast page.