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Travis Perkins PLC (GB:TPK)
LSE:TPK

Travis Perkins (TPK) AI Stock Analysis

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Travis Perkins

(LSE:TPK)

Rating:70Neutral
Price Target:
680.00p
▲(9.59%Upside)
Travis Perkins' overall stock score reflects a balanced view of its current financial and operational standing. Strong cash flow and shareholder support are key positives, but these are tempered by challenges in profitability, operational efficiency, and negative valuation metrics.
Positive Factors
Leadership
New Chair Geoff Drabble is expected to drive improvements at pace, leveraging his extensive industry experience.
Market Conditions
The improvement in UK residential RMI is seen as inevitable, with housing transactions picking up, mortgage rates expected to fall, and consumer balance sheets improving.
Stock Rating
The stock rating for Travis Perkins has been upgraded from Hold to Buy due to a compelling risk/reward scenario at historically low share prices.
Negative Factors
Market Share
Travis Perkins noted a loss of market share in Merchanting over the summer, with volumes continuing to decline.
Profit Guidance
The FY24 operating profit guidance has been lowered to approximately £135m from a previous guide of about £150m.
Revenue Performance
Travis Perkins reported total revenue growth of -5.7% for the 3Q, with like for like growth of -6.8%, indicating a decline in performance.

Travis Perkins (TPK) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Travis Perkins Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTravis Perkins plc distributes building materials to the building, construction, and home improvement markets in the United Kingdom. It operates through, Merchanting, and Toolstation segments. The Merchanting segment distributes interior building products, which include drywalls, ceilings, external envelopes, fire protection products, flooring and partitioning products, and tools and accessories to professionals within the construction industry; civil, drainage, and heavy building materials to specialist contractors and trade professionals; and pipeline and heating solutions. This segment also distributes building materials, plumbing and heating products, landscaping materials, timber and sheet materials, painting and decorating products, dry lining and insulation products, doors and joinery, and hand and power tools to trade professionals and self-builders. The Toolstation segment supplies products to the trade, home improvers, and self-builders industry through approximately 500 branches, as well as online, call centers, and a mobile website. It also offers kitchens and joinery products to specialist joiners, kitchen fitters, house builders, local authorities, and national house builders. The company was formerly known as Sandell Perkins Public Limited Company and changed its name to Travis Perkins plc in October 1988. Travis Perkins plc was founded in 1797 and is headquartered in Northampton, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyTravis Perkins generates revenue primarily through the sale of building materials and home improvement products. The company's key revenue streams include its network of branches and online platforms, which cater to both trade professionals and retail customers. Additionally, Travis Perkins benefits from its extensive supply chain and logistics capabilities, which allow for efficient distribution of products. Strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers also play a crucial role in maintaining a diverse product offering and competitive pricing, contributing to its earnings.

Travis Perkins Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 01, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 14.76%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed view with both positive and negative aspects. While there were notable achievements in Toolstation U.K. profitability and debt reduction, the company faced significant challenges in merchanting performance and operational issues related to Oracle implementation.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Toolstation U.K. Profitability
Toolstation U.K. saw an increase in profitability, in line with previous guidance, and is expected to continue performing well despite challenging market conditions.
Reduction in Net Debt
Net debt before leases was reduced by 39.2% from GBP340 million to GBP191 million, reflecting a strong focus on cash generation and balance sheet protection.
Closure of Toolstation France
The closure of Toolstation France is reported as a discontinued operation, eliminating a significant loss from future performance.
Successful Refinance
The company successfully refinanced GBP125 million of U.S. private placement debt on an investment-grade basis, demonstrating financial stability.
Negative Updates
Merchanting Underperformance
Merchant businesses continued to underperform, with the general merchant business ceding market share in the second half of the fiscal year.
Significant Operational Challenges
The company faced operational challenges due to strategic missteps and tactical blunders, including high staff attrition and management void.
Oracle Implementation Issues
The implementation of Oracle Financials led to a backlog of invoices and frustration among colleagues, impacting working capital and day-to-day operations.
Decline in Group Revenue and Profit
Group revenue was down 4.7% to GBP4.6 billion, and adjusted operating profit decreased by 23.2% to GBP152 million compared to the prior year.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, Travis Perkins provided guidance indicating that the group's financial performance for 2025 is expected to remain consistent with 2024, excluding property profits. Key metrics included a 4.7% decline in group revenue to GBP 4.6 billion and a 23.2% decrease in adjusted operating profit to GBP 152 million for 2024. The company also highlighted its efforts to manage cash generation more rigorously, resulting in a 39.2% reduction in net debt before leases, from GBP 340 million to GBP 191 million. The company expects capital expenditure to be around GBP 80 million, property profits at GBP 3 million, and an effective tax rate of 30% for the upcoming year. Despite challenges, particularly in the merchanting business, the company remains focused on enhancing operational efficiency and leveraging its strong fundamentals to improve market positioning.

Travis Perkins Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Travis Perkins exhibits robust cash flow management with a 79.76% growth in free cash flow, despite challenges in profitability reflected by a -1.68% net profit margin and a 5.22% revenue decline. The stable balance sheet with moderate leverage provides a buffer against financial risks.
Income Statement
68
Positive
Travis Perkins demonstrates a mixed performance in profitability and revenue growth. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 26.12%, indicating a strong ability to convert revenue into gross profit. However, the net profit margin is negative at approximately -1.68%, reflecting challenges in managing overall expenses and profitability. The EBIT margin has significantly decreased, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Revenue has declined over the past year by about 5.22%, indicating a downturn in sales.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.55, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is negative due to the net loss, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio stands at around 48.96%, showcasing a substantial proportion of assets financed by equity, which provides stability against financial risks.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The cash flow statement highlights robust free cash flow generation with a notable growth rate of approximately 79.76% from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income is also strong, pointing to efficient cash management. Despite a challenging net income, cash flows remain resilient, supporting future investments and debt servicing.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.61B4.86B4.99B4.59B3.70B
Gross Profit
1.20B1.31B1.38B1.31B1.04B
EBIT
2.30M160.70M258.60M294.90M-114.00M
EBITDA
202.70M306.40M461.20M464.90M193.70M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-77.40M38.10M192.20M278.90M-22.40M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
244.40M131.50M235.70M459.80M505.60M
Total Assets
4.03B4.03B4.14B4.40B6.08B
Total Debt
1.09B1.05B1.05B1.06B1.90B
Net Debt
845.20M922.00M818.50M604.60M1.40B
Total Liabilities
2.06B1.99B2.03B2.16B3.37B
Stockholders Equity
1.97B2.04B2.10B2.24B2.71B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
150.30M85.00M118.40M167.60M384.90M
Operating Cash Flow
222.50M217.60M257.50M332.30M487.20M
Investing Cash Flow
-3.40M-58.90M-116.60M139.80M-9.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-119.40M-250.40M-377.50M-517.90M-180.50M

Travis Perkins Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price620.50
Price Trends
50DMA
583.45
Positive
100DMA
604.81
Positive
200DMA
700.70
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
8.72
Positive
RSI
51.61
Neutral
STOCH
25.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 620.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 628.70, above the 50-day MA of 583.45, and below the 200-day MA of 700.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 8.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:TPK.

Travis Perkins Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£157.68M15.779.56%4.95%-1.81%15.19%
77
Outperform
£143.69M9.0216.03%5.66%-6.20%83.31%
GBFAN
76
Outperform
£1.20B30.1616.36%1.59%7.32%-6.70%
GBNXR
76
Outperform
£245.21M69.821.63%2.56%-10.36%-41.41%
GBTPK
70
Neutral
£1.33B-2.02%2.90%-5.23%-301.98%
GBGEN
70
Neutral
£958.51M28.565.24%4.26%-4.30%-13.09%
66
Neutral
$4.49B12.225.40%3.71%4.17%-11.97%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:TPK
Travis Perkins
620.50
-176.74
-22.17%
GB:EPWN
Epwin Group plc
107.00
20.72
24.01%
GB:ECEL
Eurocell
154.50
27.64
21.79%
GB:NXR
Norcros
271.00
60.38
28.67%
GB:GEN
Genuit Group
376.50
-54.79
-12.70%
GB:FAN
Volution
601.00
165.57
38.02%

Travis Perkins Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsDividends
Travis Perkins AGM: All Resolutions Passed, Signaling Strong Shareholder Support
Positive
May 14, 2025

Travis Perkins plc successfully held its Annual General Meeting on May 14, 2025, where all proposed resolutions were passed by shareholders. The meeting, attended by four shareholders or their representatives, saw resolutions ranging from the approval of the company’s annual accounts to the election and re-election of directors, and the approval of a final dividend for the financial year ended December 31, 2024. The approval of these resolutions, including special resolutions regarding share allotment and market purchases, indicates strong shareholder support and positions the company for continued strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TPK) stock is a Buy with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Travis Perkins stock, see the GB:TPK Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Travis Perkins Appoints Gavin Slark as New CEO
Positive
May 9, 2025

Travis Perkins has announced the appointment of Gavin Slark as its new Chief Executive Officer, effective by January 2026. Slark, who brings extensive experience from his previous roles at SIG plc and Grafton Group plc, is expected to continue the company’s strategic initiatives to enhance customer service and operational efficiency. This leadership change is anticipated to strengthen Travis Perkins’ market position and stakeholder engagement.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Travis Perkins Sells Staircraft to Focus on Core Business
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Travis Perkins plc has announced the sale of its Staircraft business to Gait Consulting for £24 million. This move is part of the company’s strategy to simplify its operating model and concentrate on its core business of building materials distribution. The proceeds from the sale will be used to strengthen the company’s balance sheet and support reinvestment in its primary assets, aligning with its goal of being the UK’s leading distributor of building materials.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Travis Perkins Announces Director Share Transfer
Neutral
Apr 17, 2025

Travis Perkins announced a share transfer involving Robin Miller, the General Counsel & Company Secretary, who transferred 6,814 shares to his spouse for nil consideration. This transaction was conducted in compliance with the UK Market Abuse Regulation and highlights the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions of corporate governance.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Travis Perkins Executive Exercises Options and Sells Shares
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Travis Perkins plc announced that Robin Miller, General Counsel and Company Secretary, exercised nil-cost options and subsequently sold a portion of ordinary shares to cover tax liabilities. This transaction, involving 12,898 options exercised and 6,084 shares sold, reflects routine financial management by a key company executive, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements and maintaining transparency with stakeholders.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Travis Perkins Finalizes Tender Offer for £250 Million Notes
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Travis Perkins plc has announced the final results of its tender offer for its outstanding £250 million 3.750% guaranteed notes due 2026. The company accepted £125 million in aggregate principal amount of the notes, with a pro rata scaling factor of 57.5513%, and the settlement date is expected to be 11 April 2025. This move reflects Travis Perkins’ strategic financial management and may impact its liquidity and debt profile, potentially influencing stakeholder confidence and market positioning.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Travis Perkins Announces Indicative Results of £250 Million Tender Offer
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Travis Perkins plc has announced the indicative results of its tender offer for its outstanding £250 million 3.750% Guaranteed Notes due 2026. The company received valid tenders amounting to £214.92 million and expects to accept £125 million of these, subject to a scaling factor of 57.5513%. This move is part of the company’s financial strategy to manage its debt obligations, potentially impacting its financial stability and market positioning.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Travis Perkins Announces 2025 AGM Details and Publishes Annual Report
Neutral
Apr 9, 2025

Travis Perkins has announced the details for its 2025 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for May 14, 2025, at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in London. The company has published its Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2024, which is available on its website. The Notice of AGM and the Annual Report have been submitted to the National Storage Mechanism for public inspection, ensuring transparency and compliance with regulatory requirements.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Travis Perkins Executives Exercise Share Options and Conduct Transactions
Neutral
Apr 8, 2025

Travis Perkins announced the exercise of nil-cost options and the subsequent sale of ordinary shares by Duncan Cooper, Chief Financial Officer, and Robin Miller, General Counsel and Company Secretary, to cover tax liabilities. Additionally, Robin Miller transferred shares to a spouse for nil consideration. These transactions are part of the company’s share-based compensation plans, reflecting standard practices in corporate governance and executive remuneration.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Travis Perkins Sees Major Shareholding Change as BlackRock Reduces Stake
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025

Travis Perkins has announced a change in major shareholding, with BlackRock, Inc. reducing its voting rights in the company to below 5%. This adjustment in shareholding could impact Travis Perkins’ market positioning and influence within the industry, as BlackRock is a significant institutional investor. The notification highlights a shift in BlackRock’s investment strategy, potentially affecting stakeholder perceptions and the company’s future shareholder dynamics.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Travis Perkins Releases 2024 Annual Report
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025

Travis Perkins has announced the publication of its Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2024, following the release of its full year results. The report is available online, and hard copies will be sent to shareholders who have opted for paper communications. This publication provides stakeholders with detailed insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, reinforcing its commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Travis Perkins Announces Change in Major Shareholding by BlackRock
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025

Travis Perkins has announced a notification of major shareholding, indicating that BlackRock, Inc. has adjusted its voting rights in the company. As of April 1, 2025, BlackRock holds 5% of the voting rights, a slight decrease from its previous position. This change in shareholding could impact Travis Perkins’ market dynamics and influence its strategic decisions, reflecting BlackRock’s ongoing investment strategy.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Travis Perkins Announces Cash Tender Offer for £250 Million Notes
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025

Travis Perkins plc has announced a cash tender offer for its outstanding £250 million 3.750% guaranteed notes due in 2026. This move is aimed at proactively managing the company’s debt profile and providing liquidity for investors. The offer allows the company to purchase up to £125 million of the notes, with the potential to adjust this amount based on the final acceptance. The notes purchased will be canceled, which could impact the company’s financial structure and investor relations.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Travis Perkins Announces New Chair for Nominations Committee
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Travis Perkins has announced a change in its board of directors, with Geoff Drabble taking on the role of Chair of the Nominations Committee effective April 1, 2025. This leadership change is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its governance structure and enhance its strategic direction, potentially impacting its operations and stakeholder relationships.

Financial Disclosures
Travis Perkins to Announce 2024 Financial Results on April 1, 2025
Neutral
Mar 27, 2025

Travis Perkins plc has announced that it will release its financial results for the year ending 31 December 2024 on 1 April 2025. The company plans to host a presentation for analysts and investors, indicating a proactive approach to engaging with stakeholders and maintaining transparency in its financial communications.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.