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Saga plc
(LSE:SAGA)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
677.00 p
▲(76.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is primarily supported by improving financial performance and notably stronger recent cash generation, but is held back by very high leverage and thin equity. Technicals are mixed with weaker near-term trend signals, and valuation is pressured by a negative P/E with no dividend yield data to offset.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Material improvement in operating and free cash flow provides durable support for debt servicing, routine capex and working capital. Stronger cash conversion reduces short-term refinancing pressure, gives management room to reinvest in core travel and insurance operations, and underpins sustainability of operations if maintained.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
A highly leveraged capital structure with thin equity limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk. Large debt relative to equity amplifies earnings and cash-flow sensitivity to shocks, constraining strategic options and increasing the importance of consistently strong cash generation to avoid distress in adverse cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Material improvement in operating and free cash flow provides durable support for debt servicing, routine capex and working capital. Stronger cash conversion reduces short-term refinancing pressure, gives management room to reinvest in core travel and insurance operations, and underpins sustainability of operations if maintained.
Read all positive factors
Saga plc (SAGA) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£954.49M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)379.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)63.7
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth12.19%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees3,682
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding146,290,480
10 Day Avg. Volume237,304
30 Day Avg. Volume379,687
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.50
Price to Book (P/B)10.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.12
P/FCF Ratio7.34
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£795.00Price Target Upside107.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)£698.83M
Saga plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saga plc is a United Kingdom-based company that delivers a broad spectrum of services, encompassing general insurance, holiday packages, cruises, and various personal finance offerings. Operating through its Insurance, Travel, and Other Businesses...
How the Company Makes Money
Saga makes money mainly through (1) travel and (2) insurance distribution/underwriting economics, plus related ancillary income.
Travel (cruises and holidays): Saga earns revenue from customers who book cruises and packaged holidays. For cruises,...
Saga plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 24, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Saga delivered a strong first half with significant revenue growth and debt reduction, particularly excelling in its travel and insurance broking segments. The strategic moves, including the sale of the underwriting business and upcoming partnerships, position Saga for future growth. However, challenges remain in the home insurance segment and the impact of higher finance costs. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Underlying revenue increased by 7% from the prior period, driven largely by growth in travel businesses and improved performance in insurance broking.
Negative Updates
Insurance Home Segment Decline
Home insurance contribution decreased by GBP 6.2 million due to net rate inflation within the panel, leading to 19% fewer policy sales.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Underlying revenue increased by 7% from the prior period, driven largely by growth in travel businesses and improved performance in insurance broking.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call provided comprehensive guidance on Saga's financial performance and strategic direction. Key metrics highlighted include a 7% increase in underlying revenue and an 8% growth in trading EBITDA, contributing to a reduction in net debt by GBP 77.7 million to GBP 515.1 million. The leverage ratio improved to 4.3x from 4.8x, reflecting strong cash generation. The Travel business was a significant profit driver, with a 33% increase in underlying PBT to GBP 41.6 million and ocean cruise PBT up 23%, alongside an 8% revenue growth and a 94% load factor. The River Cruise business saw a 34% increase in underlying PBT, with a load factor rising to 93%. The Holidays business reported a 14% revenue growth driven by a 13% increase in passenger numbers. Insurance Broking's underlying PBT stood at GBP 8.9 million, with policy volume growth across motor, travel, and private medical insurance. The sale of AICL added GBP 17 million in cash, aiding strategic simplification. The company is on track for its medium-term targets, including a GBP 100 million profit and leverage below 2x by 2030.Saga plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | Jan 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 660.00M | 588.30M | 564.60M | 581.10M | 377.20M |
| Gross Profit | 318.90M | 279.50M | 262.60M | 262.70M | 222.80M |
| EBITDA | 104.50M | -40.50M | 67.70M | -188.90M | 46.80M |
| Net Income | 13.80M | -164.90M | -113.00M | -259.20M | -28.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.28B | 1.59B | 1.88B | 1.98B | 2.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 258.00M | 141.60M | 262.80M | 239.30M | 336.90M |
| Total Debt | 651.40M | 689.90M | 824.40M | 895.50M | 934.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21B | 1.53B | 1.66B | 1.61B | 1.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 69.70M | 57.70M | 223.50M | 369.50M | 652.90M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 100.90M | 93.10M | 57.00M | -34.70M | 27.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.00M | 113.20M | 83.70M | -13.90M | 46.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.10M | 14.80M | 18.00M | 4.10M | -27.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -69.50M | -144.50M | -73.80M | -54.20M | 69.60M |
Saga plc Technical Analysis
Positive
383.50
Price Trends
574.58
Positive
552.51
Positive
441.51
Positive
Market Momentum
23.98
Negative
70.75
Negative
88.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SAGA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 383.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 586.90, below the 50-day MA of 574.58, and below the 200-day MA of 441.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 23.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.75 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SAGA.
Saga plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | £1.58B | 12.24 | 11.24% | 11.03% | 2.58% | -12.71% | |
75 Outperform | £446.58M | 15.60 | 11.29% | 4.89% | -10.30% | 6.15% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | £1.45B | 8.43 | 11.98% | 4.74% | -6.82% | -7.03% | |
60 Neutral | £19.99B | 23.56 | 10.20% | 6.03% | 43.20% | 19.23% | |
53 Neutral | £777.35M | -66.07 | -2.43% | 8.03% | -40.13% | -369.64% | |
52 Neutral | £954.49M | 63.68 | -15.72% | ― | 12.19% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:SAGA
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Saga plc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
Saga shareholders approve all resolutions at 2026 AGM
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
Saga plc reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 2026 annual general meeting were approved by poll, including the receipt of its latest annual report and accounts. Shareholders backed the directors’ remuneration report, re-e...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saga Starts Year Strong as Travel Growth and Ageas Partnership Cut Debt
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
Saga plc reported a strong start to its new financial year, with trading from February to late June in line with expectations and the group on track to meet full-year guidance. Travel continues to underpin growth, as ocean and river cruises are se...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Saga Publishes 2026 Annual Report and Sets Date for AGM
Neutral
May 26, 2026
Saga plc has confirmed that its Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 31 January 2026, along with the Notice of its 2026 Annual General Meeting, have been dispatched to shareholders and are available on the company’s corporate websit...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Saga Confirms Updated Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
May 12, 2026
Saga plc reported that, as of 11 May 2026, its issued share capital comprises 146,290,485 ordinary shares of 15 pence each, with no shares held in treasury, giving a total of 146,290,485 voting rights. The company highlighted that this figure shou...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Saga issues new shares to fund employee incentive trust and updates voting rights
Neutral
May 8, 2026
Saga plc has issued 1,435,000 new ordinary shares of 15 pence each for transfer into an employee benefit trust, in order to satisfy employee incentive arrangements and align staff interests with those of shareholders. The shares will rank pari pas...
Executive/Board Changes
Saga awards long‑term nil‑cost share options to CEO and CFO
Neutral
Apr 23, 2026
Saga plc has granted new nil-cost option awards over ordinary shares to its Group Chief Executive Officer, Mike Hazell, and Group Chief Financial Officer, Mark Watkins, under the Saga plc 2026 Restricted Share Plan. The awards, covering 111,019 sh...
Executive/Board Changes
Saga Grants Deferred Bonus Share Awards to CEO and CFO
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Saga plc has granted nil-cost share options to its chief executive, Mike Hazell, and chief financial officer, Mark Watkins, under its Deferred Bonus Plan, converting part of their 2025/26 annual bonuses into equity. Hazell received rights over 48,...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Saga posts stronger profits, trims debt as over-50s travel and insurance drive turnaround
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Saga reported an 11% rise in underlying revenue to £654.6m and a 16% increase in trading EBITDA, with underlying profit before tax up 19% to £44.2m and a swing to a £2.1m statutory profit, driven by strong performances in both Trave...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.