Saga plc (GB:SAGA)
LSE:SAGA
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Saga plc
(LSE:SAGA)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
664.00 p
▲(73.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (revenue rebound, restored profitability, and strong free cash flow) and strong technical momentum with the stock trading well above major moving averages. This is tempered by significant balance-sheet leverage and weaker valuation clarity due to a negative P/E, while the latest earnings call adds support via improving leverage metrics and positive segment momentum.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Improved and consistent cash generation is a durable strength: rising OCF and FCF provide ongoing capacity to service debt, fund working capital and targeted investments, and reduce refinancing stress. Strong cash conversion underpins operational resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A very high debt load versus thin equity constrains financial flexibility and elevates refinancing and covenant risk. Even with improving cash flow, leverage magnifies earnings sensitivity to travel cycles, margin shocks, and higher finance costs, limiting strategic choices.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Improved and consistent cash generation is a durable strength: rising OCF and FCF provide ongoing capacity to service debt, fund working capital and targeted investments, and reduce refinancing stress. Strong cash conversion underpins operational resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Saga plc (SAGA) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£853.35M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)379.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.7
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth12.19%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees3,682
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.05
Shares Outstanding144,855,480
10 Day Avg. Volume237,304
30 Day Avg. Volume379,687
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.50
Price to Book (P/B)10.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.12
P/FCF Ratio7.34
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£600.00Price Target Upside56.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)£685.27M
Saga plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saga plc provides general insurance, package and cruise holidays, and personal finance products and services in the United Kingdom. The company operates in three segments: Insurance, Travel, and Other Businesses and Central Costs. It offers car, h...
How the Company Makes Money
Saga plc generates revenue mainly from (1) Travel and (2) Insurance.
1) Travel (holidays and cruises)
- Cruises: Saga earns money by selling cruise packages to customers, with revenue driven by passenger ticket sales (including cabins/fare packag...
Saga plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 24, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Saga delivered a strong first half with significant revenue growth and debt reduction, particularly excelling in its travel and insurance broking segments. The strategic moves, including the sale of the underwriting business and upcoming partnerships, position Saga for future growth. However, challenges remain in the home insurance segment and the impact of higher finance costs. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Underlying revenue increased by 7% from the prior period, driven largely by growth in travel businesses and improved performance in insurance broking.
Negative Updates
Insurance Home Segment Decline
Home insurance contribution decreased by GBP 6.2 million due to net rate inflation within the panel, leading to 19% fewer policy sales.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Underlying revenue increased by 7% from the prior period, driven largely by growth in travel businesses and improved performance in insurance broking.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call provided comprehensive guidance on Saga's financial performance and strategic direction. Key metrics highlighted include a 7% increase in underlying revenue and an 8% growth in trading EBITDA, contributing to a reduction in net debt by GBP 77.7 million to GBP 515.1 million. The leverage ratio improved to 4.3x from 4.8x, reflecting strong cash generation. The Travel business was a significant profit driver, with a 33% increase in underlying PBT to GBP 41.6 million and ocean cruise PBT up 23%, alongside an 8% revenue growth and a 94% load factor. The River Cruise business saw a 34% increase in underlying PBT, with a load factor rising to 93%. The Holidays business reported a 14% revenue growth driven by a 13% increase in passenger numbers. Insurance Broking's underlying PBT stood at GBP 8.9 million, with policy volume growth across motor, travel, and private medical insurance. The sale of AICL added GBP 17 million in cash, aiding strategic simplification. The company is on track for its medium-term targets, including a GBP 100 million profit and leverage below 2x by 2030.Saga plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | Jan 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 660.00M | 588.30M | 564.60M | 581.10M | 377.20M |
| Gross Profit | 318.90M | 279.50M | 262.60M | 262.70M | 222.80M |
| EBITDA | 104.50M | -40.50M | 67.70M | -188.90M | 46.80M |
| Net Income | 13.80M | -164.90M | -113.00M | -259.20M | -28.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.28B | 1.59B | 1.88B | 1.98B | 2.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 258.00M | 141.60M | 262.80M | 239.30M | 336.90M |
| Total Debt | 651.40M | 689.90M | 824.40M | 895.50M | 934.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21B | 1.53B | 1.66B | 1.61B | 1.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 69.70M | 57.70M | 223.50M | 369.50M | 652.90M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 100.90M | 93.10M | 57.00M | -34.70M | 27.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.00M | 113.20M | 83.70M | -13.90M | 46.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.10M | 14.80M | 18.00M | 4.10M | -27.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -69.50M | -144.50M | -73.80M | -54.20M | 69.60M |
Saga plc Technical Analysis
Positive
383.50
Price Trends
526.64
Positive
454.31
Positive
339.40
Positive
Market Momentum
27.50
Negative
70.09
Negative
81.37
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SAGA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 383.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 526.35, below the 50-day MA of 526.64, and above the 200-day MA of 339.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 27.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.09 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SAGA.
Saga plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | £1.44B | 6.98 | 11.24% | 11.03% | 2.58% | -12.71% | |
75 Outperform | £371.31M | 8.52 | 11.29% | 4.89% | -10.30% | 6.15% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | £853.35M | 53.66 | -15.72% | ― | 12.19% | ― | |
65 Neutral | £1.44B | 5.39 | 12.75% | 4.74% | -4.98% | 3.02% | |
60 Neutral | £18.96B | 18.92 | 10.20% | 6.03% | 43.20% | 19.23% | |
53 Neutral | £705.55M | -59.40 | -2.93% | 8.03% | -40.13% | -369.64% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:SAGA
Saga plc
591.00
456.80
340.39%
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307.50
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GB:PAG
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GB:AV
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GB:SBRE
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Saga plc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Saga posts stronger profits, trims debt as over-50s travel and insurance drive turnaround
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Saga reported an 11% rise in underlying revenue to £654.6m and a 16% increase in trading EBITDA, with underlying profit before tax up 19% to £44.2m and a swing to a £2.1m statutory profit, driven by strong performances in both Trave...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Saga Reshapes Board Committees and Appoints New Remuneration Chair
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
Saga plc has reshaped elements of its board governance, appointing non-executive director Gemma Godfrey as chair of the Remuneration Committee and naming her the board’s designated People Champion, with immediate effect. These changes highli...
Business Operations and Strategy
Saga Appoints Singer Capital Markets as Joint Broker
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
Saga plc, the UK specialist in products and services for people over 50, continues to target this demographic as its primary market, offering a focused portfolio tailored to older customers. The company leverages its brand and expertise in the ove...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Saga Non-Executive Director Julie Hopes Steps Down From Board
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Saga plc announced that non-executive director Julie Hopes, who has served on the board since October 2018, has stepped down with immediate effect to pursue other opportunities. Chairman Sir Roger De Haan praised her significant contribution, high...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Saga lifts profit outlook as cruises, holidays and insurance drive growth
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
Saga plc expects to report an increase in underlying profit before tax for 2025/26, ahead of both last year and its half‑year guidance, driven by strong performances in its Ocean and River Cruise, Holidays and Insurance Broking operations. H...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.