NewRiver REIT (NRR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £283.74M
• Dividend Yield: 9.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 992.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 84.02%
• EPS Growth: 53.97%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 48
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 426,670,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,104,326
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 992,660
• PEG Ratio: -0.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £114.00
• Price Target Upside: 67.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: 80.00p ▲(17.65% Upside)

NewRiver REIT's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supported by positive technical indicators and strategic corporate events. However, high leverage and refinancing needs present potential risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust recovery dynamics and effective asset management, enhancing long-term financial stability and market position.

Operational Efficiency

High operational efficiency through cost management supports sustained profitability, allowing the company to better weather economic fluctuations.

Cash Flow Generation

Improved cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and debt management, crucial for long-term growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially in rising interest rate environments, potentially affecting long-term stability.

Income Disruption

Income disruptions from tenant restructurings can impact cash flow and profitability, posing risks to financial performance and dividend sustainability.

Refinancing Needs

Refinancing needs in a high-interest environment may increase costs and pressure margins, affecting future earnings and financial health.

NewRiver REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NewRiver REIT plc ('NewRiver') is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specialising in buying, managing and developing essential retail and leisure assets throughout the UK. Our £1.1 billion portfolio covers 9 million sq ft and comprises 33 community shopping centres, 24 conveniently located retail parks and 700 community pubs. We hand-picked our assets to deliberately focus on occupiers providing essential goods and services, and avoid structurally challenged sub-sectors such as department stores, mid-market fashion and casual dining. This focus, combined with our affordable rents and desirable locations, delivers sustainable and growing returns for our shareholders, while our active approach to asset management and inbuilt 2.6 million sq ft development pipeline provide further opportunities to extract value from our portfolio. NewRiver has a Premium Listing on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (ticker: NRR).

How the Company Makes Money

NewRiver REIT generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of retail and leisure properties. The company's key revenue streams include long-term leases with a variety of tenants, which provide stable cash flow. Additionally, NewRiver engages in active asset management to enhance property performance and occupancy rates, thereby increasing rental yields. The company may also realize income through property sales and development projects, further contributing to its earnings. Partnerships with retailers and other stakeholders in the retail and leisure sectors can provide opportunities for collaborative ventures, enhancing revenue potential. Moreover, fluctuations in market conditions and consumer behavior can impact foot traffic and rental income, influencing NewRiver's financial performance.

NewRiver REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NewRiver REIT shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability metrics, with a solid gross profit margin and operational efficiency. However, high leverage and historical fluctuations in net income pose risks.

Income Statement

NewRiver REIT has shown a considerable improvement in its revenue growth, with a notable increase from the previous year, indicating strong recovery dynamics. The gross profit margin remains solid at 62.09%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has seen volatility, though it has improved to 26.18% in the latest report. The EBIT margin of 43.09% and EBITDA margin of 49.50% are both robust, showcasing operational efficiency. Despite these strengths, the prior years' fluctuations in net income pose potential risks.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is moderately high at 1.04, indicating a reliance on debt financing, which could be risky in a rising interest rate environment. Return on equity has improved significantly to 4.84%, showcasing better utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at 46.48%, reflecting a balanced asset financing structure. Despite improvements, the high leverage remains a concern for future flexibility and stability.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has increased by 12.65% year-over-year, indicating a strong cash position. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.20 suggests efficient earnings conversion to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 0.79, demonstrating good cash generation relative to profit. These metrics reflect a positive cash flow trajectory, although the previous year's volatility in cash flows should be monitored.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	90.50M	65.80M	90.50M	73.70M	75.00M	75.50M
Gross Profit	56.20M	44.90M	56.20M	46.40M	47.10M	49.20M
EBITDA	39.00M	18.60M	44.80M	37.80M	37.50M	34.60M
Net Income	23.70M	3.00M	23.70M	-16.80M	7.00M	-122.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.05B	759.60M	1.05B	781.50M	819.10M	1.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	61.30M	132.80M	61.30M	108.60M	82.80M	150.50M
Total Debt	510.60M	372.20M	510.60M	373.40M	371.50M	715.30M
Total Liabilities	564.00M	398.50M	564.00M	402.90M	405.00M	765.50M
Stockholders Equity	490.10M	361.10M	490.10M	378.60M	414.10M	460.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	28.40M	16.60M	18.70M	24.00M	34.90M	-4.40M
Operating Cash Flow	28.40M	22.70M	28.40M	27.00M	47.50M	8.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-68.95M	23.60M	-67.80M	18.80M	239.80M	62.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-12.20M	-22.10M	-32.10M	-20.00M	-355.00M	-2.10M

NewRiver REIT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 68.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NRR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.91, above the 50-day MA of 67.62, and below the 200-day MA of 68.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:NRR.

NewRiver REIT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTVW	74 Outperform	£350.91M	16.26	5.35%	5.83%	-6.52%	-20.26%
SUPR	74 Outperform	£988.27M	16.05	5.54%	7.67%	7.57%	―
CREI	73 Outperform	£371.54M	7.13	11.71%	7.42%	1.60%	211.81%
NRR	71 Outperform	£283.74M	9.79	6.94%	9.71%	84.02%	53.97%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
HMSO	64 Neutral	£1.64B	21.72	3.09%	4.52%	16.30%	―
PCTN	60 Neutral	$370.33M	9.48	7.51%	5.22%	-3.98%	412.08%

NewRiver REIT Corporate Events

NewRiver REIT Declares Interim Dividend with Scrip Option

NewRiver REIT has announced an interim dividend of 3.1 pence per share for the six months ending 30 September 2025, payable as a Property Income Distribution on 30 January 2026. Shareholders have the option to receive additional shares instead of cash dividends through the company’s scrip dividend scheme, which was renewed at the 2023 Annual General Meeting.

NewRiver REIT Reports Strong Growth and Strategic Advancements in H1 FY26

NewRiver REIT PLC reported strong operational momentum and earnings growth for the first half of FY26, driven by the successful integration of Capital & Regional, which enhanced its business scale and delivered immediate benefits. The company’s portfolio, focused on convenience-led retail, showed high occupancy and tenant retention, supported by robust customer spending. NewRiver maintained a disciplined capital allocation strategy, selling shopping centers and conducting a share buyback, which improved earnings and net asset value. The company also reported a 5.4% total accounting return, reflecting progress towards its annual target, and maintained a strong financial position with stable leverage and healthy cash reserves.

NewRiver REIT Announces Board Changes to Strengthen Leadership

NewRiver REIT has announced changes to its board of directors, with Alastair Miller stepping down from several roles after nine years of service. Colin Rutherford will take over as Senior Independent Director, while Charlie Parker will become Chairman of the Remuneration Committee and Non-Executive Director responsible for Workforce Engagement. These changes are part of the company’s ongoing efforts to leverage experienced leadership and maintain effective governance, which are crucial for its strategic direction and stakeholder engagement.

NewRiver REIT to Announce Half Year Results

NewRiver REIT plc announced it will release its Half Year Results for the six months ending 30 September 2025 on 2 December 2025. The company will host a live presentation for analysts and investors, reflecting its commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement, potentially impacting its market positioning positively.

NewRiver REIT Appoints Rajat Dhawan as Independent Non-Executive Director

NewRiver REIT has appointed Rajat Dhawan as an Independent Non-Executive Director, enhancing the board with his extensive experience in technology and digital transformation. This strategic appointment is expected to support NewRiver’s growth and value creation for shareholders, aligning with its focus on leveraging innovative technology to improve operations and customer engagement.

NewRiver REIT Announces Total Voting Rights Update

NewRiver REIT plc has announced its total voting rights, with an issued share capital consisting of 429,969,475 ordinary shares, of which 3,298,567 are held in the Employee Benefit Trust. This results in a total of 426,670,908 voting rights, a figure that shareholders can use to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules. This announcement provides clarity on shareholder voting power, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions of the company’s governance structure.

Fitch Affirms NewRiver REIT’s Investment Grade Ratings

Fitch Ratings has affirmed NewRiver REIT plc’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘BBB’ with a Stable Outlook, and its senior unsecured rating at ‘BBB+’. This affirmation, which includes a £300 million unsecured bond due in 2028, underscores NewRiver’s stable financial position and creditworthiness, reflecting positively on its operations and market confidence. The ratings are significant for stakeholders as they indicate the company’s ability to maintain financial stability and manage its debt obligations effectively.

NewRiver REIT CFO Exercises Share Options, Increases Stake

NewRiver REIT announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Will Hobman, exercised 140,439 nil cost options under the company’s Deferred Bonus Plan, resulting in an increase of his beneficial interest in the company. The transaction was executed to cover tax liabilities, and no new shares were issued, as the shares were transferred from the Employee Benefit Trust. This move aligns with the company’s regulatory compliance under the UK Market Abuse Regulation and reflects internal financial management practices.