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NewRiver REIT PLC (GB:NRR)
LSE:NRR

NewRiver REIT (NRR) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:NRR

NewRiver REIT

(LSE:NRR)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
86.00p
▲(18.46% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/07/25
NewRiver REIT's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supported by positive technical indicators and strategic corporate events. However, high leverage and refinancing needs present potential risks.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Recovery
A large YoY revenue increase shows durable recovery in rental and leasing activity, reflecting stronger tenant demand and successful re-letting. Sustained revenue growth improves cash coverage for dividends and supports reinvestment into assets over the next several quarters.
Solid Cash Generation
Increasing free cash flow and an operating-cash-to-net-income ratio above 1 indicate efficient cash conversion from operations. This underpins dividend coverage, funds capital recycling and share buybacks, and provides flexibility to manage refinancing or fund selective asset investment.
Operational Integration & Occupancy
Realised synergies from the Capital & Regional integration plus double-digit new rents and high occupancy point to improved asset management. Combined with disciplined disposals that lowered LTV, this strengthens recurring income and balance-sheet resilience over a multi-quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
A materially elevated debt-to-equity ratio means interest rate moves and debt servicing pressures can materially affect distributable cash. High leverage constrains strategic flexibility, makes refinancing timing critical, and raises sensitivity to any future cash-flow volatility.
Upcoming Refinancing Needs
Near-term refinancing of key facilities in a higher-rate environment increases funding cost risk and may compress cash profits or require covenant adjustments. Execution timing and pricing of refinancings will materially affect longer-term interest expense and cash available for distributions.
Tenant/Retailer Exposure
Concentration in retail assets and income hit from tenant restructurings create recurring credit and occupancy risk. Even modest income losses require re-letting or rent restructuring, which can depress cash flow and increase capex or incentives to maintain occupancy over multiple quarters.

NewRiver REIT (NRR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

NewRiver REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNewRiver REIT plc ('NewRiver') is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specialising in buying, managing and developing essential retail and leisure assets throughout the UK. Our £1.1 billion portfolio covers 9 million sq ft and comprises 33 community shopping centres, 24 conveniently located retail parks and 700 community pubs. We hand-picked our assets to deliberately focus on occupiers providing essential goods and services, and avoid structurally challenged sub-sectors such as department stores, mid-market fashion and casual dining. This focus, combined with our affordable rents and desirable locations, delivers sustainable and growing returns for our shareholders, while our active approach to asset management and inbuilt 2.6 million sq ft development pipeline provide further opportunities to extract value from our portfolio. NewRiver has a Premium Listing on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (ticker: NRR).
How the Company Makes MoneyNewRiver REIT generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of retail and leisure properties. The company's key revenue streams include long-term leases with a variety of tenants, which provide stable cash flow. Additionally, NewRiver engages in active asset management to enhance property performance and occupancy rates, thereby increasing rental yields. The company may also realize income through property sales and development projects, further contributing to its earnings. Partnerships with retailers and other stakeholders in the retail and leisure sectors can provide opportunities for collaborative ventures, enhancing revenue potential. Moreover, fluctuations in market conditions and consumer behavior can impact foot traffic and rental income, influencing NewRiver's financial performance.

NewRiver REIT Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Dec 02, 2025
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in integration and operational performance, along with successful asset disposals and strong financial positioning. However, challenges such as share price underperformance, income disruption from retailer restructurings, and upcoming refinancing needs were noted. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook remains optimistic with potential for future growth.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Integration and Synergies Achieved
Successfully completed the integration of the Capital & Regional portfolio, unlocking net annual synergies of GBP 6.2 million.
Cash Profit Growth and Dividend Increase
Cash profits grew by 31%, enabling an increase in the first half dividend to 3.1p per share.
Strong Leasing and Occupancy Performance
Double-digit increases in new rents with consistently high occupancy, supported by resilient consumer demand.
Asset Disposals and Share Buyback
Sold GBP 70 million of assets at book value, with a further GBP 40 million under offer or completed, and facilitated a share buyback at a 26% discount.
Stable Balance Sheet and Financial Position
Reduced loan-to-value to 38% through disposals, maintaining a strong financial position with comfortable gearing and liquidity.
Retail Market Outperformance
Retail parks and shopping centers, comprising 94% of the portfolio, are outperforming broader discretionary retail.
Negative Updates
Share Price Underperformance
The share price does not reflect the underlying progress, causing frustration among shareholders.
Income Disruption from Retailer Restructurings
Temporary income disruption from the CVAs of Poundland, Bodycare, Homebase, and River Island, potentially impacting second half income by GBP 0.5 million to GBP 1 million.
Higher Debt Costs and Refinancing Needs
Upcoming need to refinance the Mall facility and corporate debt amidst higher debt costs, which may impact future earnings.
Company Guidance
In the call, NewRiver's leadership provided robust guidance on the company's financial and operational performance for the first half of fiscal year 2026. Key metrics highlighted include a 31% increase in cash profits and net annual synergies of GBP 6.2 million achieved through the integration of the Capital & Regional portfolio. The company also reported a 3.1p per share dividend, which is fully covered by the first half's UFFO per share of 3.3p. NewRiver maintained strong occupancy with double-digit increases in new rents, enhancing its leasing activity. The balance sheet remains healthy with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio starting at 42% and later adjusted to 38% after asset disposals totaling over GBP 70 million. The company's refinancing plans are underway, and the first phase is expected to commence soon. NewRiver has identified a promising pipeline of investment opportunities and is optimistic about future rental growth driven by a resilient consumer base and improving occupational demand. The company also reported a total accounting return of 5.4% for the first half.

NewRiver REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NewRiver REIT shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability metrics, with robust operational efficiency. However, high leverage and historical fluctuations in net income and cash flows present potential risks.
Income Statement
65
Positive
NewRiver REIT has shown a considerable improvement in its revenue growth, with a notable increase from the previous year, indicating strong recovery dynamics. The gross profit margin remains solid at 62.09%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has seen volatility, though it has improved to 26.18% in the latest report. The EBIT margin of 43.09% and EBITDA margin of 49.50% are both robust, showcasing operational efficiency. Despite these strengths, the prior years' fluctuations in net income pose potential risks.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is moderately high at 1.04, indicating a reliance on debt financing, which could be risky in a rising interest rate environment. Return on equity has improved significantly to 4.84%, showcasing better utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at 46.48%, reflecting a balanced asset financing structure. Despite improvements, the high leverage remains a concern for future flexibility and stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Free cash flow has increased by 12.65% year-over-year, indicating a strong cash position. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.20 suggests efficient earnings conversion to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 0.79, demonstrating good cash generation relative to profit. These metrics reflect a positive cash flow trajectory, although the previous year's volatility in cash flows should be monitored.
BreakdownTTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue119.80M90.50M73.70M75.00M75.50M146.30M
Gross Profit63.30M56.20M46.40M47.10M49.20M90.70M
EBITDA44.40M44.80M37.80M37.50M34.60M68.10M
Net Income29.90M23.70M-16.80M7.00M-122.10M-121.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.02B1.05B781.50M819.10M1.23B1.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments88.60M61.30M108.60M82.80M150.50M80.80M
Total Debt510.50M510.60M373.40M371.50M715.30M714.90M
Total Liabilities565.80M564.00M402.90M405.00M765.50M767.70M
Stockholders Equity450.90M490.10M378.60M414.10M460.40M610.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow27.50M18.70M24.00M34.90M-4.40M21.40M
Operating Cash Flow30.70M28.40M27.00M47.50M8.90M45.60M
Investing Cash Flow400.00K-67.80M18.80M239.80M62.90M-40.50M
Financing Cash Flow-126.90M-32.10M-20.00M-355.00M-2.10M48.60M

NewRiver REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price72.60
Price Trends
50DMA
72.73
Positive
100DMA
70.18
Positive
200DMA
69.85
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.82
Negative
RSI
59.59
Neutral
STOCH
38.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NRR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.87, below the 50-day MA of 72.73, and above the 200-day MA of 69.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:NRR.

NewRiver REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
£1.07B17.335.54%7.70%7.57%
72
Outperform
£417.64M3.3411.71%7.17%1.60%211.81%
71
Outperform
£335.48M5.786.94%9.66%84.02%53.97%
71
Outperform
£171.05M9.167.37%7.43%-10.95%-30.09%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
64
Neutral
£1.85B7.173.09%4.33%16.30%
61
Neutral
£289.59M-24.26-10.89%8.16%-4.24%-273.62%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:NRR
NewRiver REIT
77.40
16.79
27.70%
GB:AEWU
AEW UK REIT
108.20
17.33
19.06%
GB:CREI
Custodian REIT
86.50
19.97
30.03%
GB:HMSO
Hammerson plc R.E.I.T.
343.00
100.54
41.47%
GB:SUPR
Supermarket Income REIT Plc
84.40
20.21
31.49%
GB:SOHO
Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC
72.60
21.08
40.92%

NewRiver REIT Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NewRiver REIT Updates Total Voting Rights Following Share Capital Confirmation
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026

NewRiver REIT plc has confirmed that its issued share capital comprises 433,053,442 ordinary shares, of which 2,400,974 are held in an Employee Benefit Trust without exercisable voting rights. As a result, the total number of voting rights available to shareholders stands at 430,652,468, a key reference figure for investors monitoring and reporting changes in their holdings under FCA disclosure rules.

The updated voting rights figure provides clarity for institutional and retail investors on the company’s free float and governance framework. This announcement ensures compliance with regulatory requirements and supports transparent ownership reporting, which is important for market participants tracking their thresholds and disclosure obligations in NewRiver REIT.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
NewRiver REIT Wins Shareholder Approval for Share Buyback Authority
Positive
Feb 25, 2026

NewRiver REIT has secured shareholder approval at a general meeting to grant the board authority to repurchase up to 10 per cent of the company’s issued ordinary share capital on the market. The special resolution passed with 99.92 per cent of votes cast in favour, although the company stated it currently has no plans to begin a share buyback programme or conduct any repurchases.

The vote provides NewRiver with additional financial and capital-allocation flexibility, positioning the REIT to act opportunistically should market conditions make buybacks an attractive use of capital. The strong backing for the authority underlines shareholder support for the board’s stewardship and may influence future decisions on capital returns alongside NewRiver’s strategy of owning and managing a resilient UK retail property portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
NewRiver REIT Seeks Fresh Share Buyback Authority as Shares Trade at Deep Discount
Positive
Feb 5, 2026

NewRiver REIT has called a general meeting for 24 February 2026 to seek shareholder approval for a new authority to buy back up to 10% of its issued ordinary share capital, after the previous authority was fully used to acquire and cancel shares sold by major investor Growthpoint Properties in 2025 at a discount to EPRA NTA. Although the board stresses it has no immediate plans to restart buybacks, the move is designed to restore flexibility to repurchase shares while they trade at a steep discount—around 31%—to reported EPRA NTA, with directors arguing that any future buybacks would be undertaken only under favourable conditions to enhance net tangible assets and underlying funds from operations per share, potentially supporting shareholder value and signalling confidence in the company’s valuation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £98.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NewRiver REIT Updates Market on Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026

NewRiver REIT plc has announced that its issued share capital comprises 433,053,442 ordinary shares, of which 2,596,333 are held in an Employee Benefit Trust and do not carry exercisable voting rights. As a result, the company confirmed that it has 430,457,109 voting rights in total, a figure that shareholders should use to determine whether they must disclose holdings or changes in their positions under the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, ensuring ongoing compliance and transparency in its shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £98.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesDividends
NewRiver REIT Issues New Shares Under Scrip Dividend Scheme
Neutral
Jan 29, 2026

NewRiver REIT has applied to the London Stock Exchange for the admission to trading of 3,083,967 new ordinary shares of 1p each, which are expected to be admitted on 30 January 2026. The new shares are being issued to satisfy shareholder elections under the company’s scrip dividend scheme for the interim dividend covering the six months to 30 September 2025, and will rank pari passu with existing ordinary shares, modestly increasing the company’s share capital while preserving cash that would otherwise have been paid out as dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £98.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
NewRiver REIT posts strong Q3 as leasing, disposals and regeneration strengthen UK retail portfolio
Positive
Jan 28, 2026

NewRiver REIT reported a strong third quarter, driven by robust leasing momentum, rising occupancy and active capital recycling across its UK retail portfolio. The company completed 234,500 sq ft of new lettings and renewals in the quarter, securing £2.1 million in annualised income, with long-term deals signed in line with estimated rental value and significantly ahead of previous rents, and year-to-date leasing showing substantial uplifts versus both ERVs and prior rents. Operational metrics improved, with portfolio occupancy rising to 96.1% and a high retailer retention rate of 91%, supported by resilient in-store consumer spending over the key Christmas trading period, particularly in grocery and discount sectors, which offset weakness in value fashion. NewRiver is on track to complete around £40 million of disposals in the second half, having sold assets including The Marlowes in Hemel Hempstead and Sprucefield Retail Park, and exchanged contracts to dispose of Cuckoo Bridge Retail Park, moves that streamline the portfolio and reinforce its balance sheet. The company also advanced key regeneration and repositioning initiatives, notably a joint venture with Mid Sussex District Council for the mixed-use redevelopment of The Martlets in Burgess Hill and an agreement for lease with an experiential leisure operator at the Capitol Centre in Cardiff, which upgrades that asset to core status and reduces the proportion of non-core ‘Work Out and Other’ assets. Management highlighted that improved rate relief for retail, hospitality and leisure will lower business rates for tenants despite higher rateable values, enhancing rental affordability and supporting NewRiver’s confidence in further earnings growth and a well-covered dividend heading into FY27.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £98.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NewRiver Chair Lynn Fordham Joins Board of Newly Listed CSG N.V.
Neutral
Jan 23, 2026

NewRiver REIT plc has announced that its Non-Executive Chair, Lynn Fordham, has been appointed as a Non-Executive Director of CSG N.V., which began trading on Euronext Amsterdam on 23 January 2026. The additional board role expands Fordham’s portfolio of non-executive positions and may enhance NewRiver’s international connectivity and governance profile, though the company has indicated this change relates solely to her external appointment and does not alter NewRiver’s own operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NewRiver REIT Confirms Total Voting Rights at Year-End
Neutral
Dec 31, 2025

NewRiver REIT has confirmed that its issued share capital comprises 429,969,475 ordinary shares, of which 2,630,275 are held in an Employee Benefit Trust without exercisable voting rights. As a result, the total number of voting rights currently stands at 427,339,200, a figure shareholders should use when assessing whether they must disclose holdings or changes in holdings under UK financial disclosure and transparency regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
NewRiver REIT Sets 67.44p Scrip Reference Price for Interim Dividend
Neutral
Dec 18, 2025

NewRiver REIT plc has set the scrip dividend reference price for its interim dividend for the six months to 30 September 2025 at 67.44 pence per ordinary share, with the scrip alternative to be treated as a property income distribution. Shareholders wishing to take shares instead of cash must elect by 9 January 2026, with new share certificates due on 30 January 2026, under the scrip dividend scheme last renewed at the July 2023 AGM, which allows investors to reinvest dividends into additional NewRiver shares without dealing charges or stamp duty, supporting capital retention for the company and offering flexibility in how investors receive their returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NewRiver REIT CEO Exercises Share Options, Increases Stake
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025

NewRiver REIT announced that its CEO, Allan Lockhart, exercised 357,542 nil-cost options under the company’s Performance Share Plan 2016, with 50% vesting based on performance conditions. Lockhart sold 168,890 shares to cover tax liabilities, resulting in an increased beneficial interest of 1,022,017 Ordinary Shares. This transaction aligns with UK Market Abuse Regulation requirements and reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive interests with shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
NewRiver REIT and Mid Sussex Council Partner for Major Regeneration Project
Positive
Dec 11, 2025

NewRiver REIT has signed a conditional agreement with Mid Sussex District Council to form a joint venture for the regeneration of The Martlets shopping centre in Burgess Hill. This project aims to transform the outdated centre into a modern retail and leisure hub, including new homes and a hotel, with construction expected to begin in summer 2026. This partnership highlights NewRiver’s strategic focus on regeneration opportunities, promising significant community and shareholder benefits.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NewRiver REIT CEO Exercises Share Options, Boosting Stake
Positive
Dec 10, 2025

NewRiver REIT announced that CEO Allan Lockhart exercised 203,098 nil-cost options under the company’s Deferred Bonus Plan, increasing his beneficial interest in the company. To cover associated tax liabilities, 96,013 shares were sold, with the transaction being compliant with UK Market Abuse Regulation. This move reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting investor confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NewRiver REIT Confirms Compliance Post-Acquisition of Capital & Regional
Positive
Dec 10, 2025

NewRiver REIT PLC has confirmed compliance with its post-offer intentions following the acquisition of Capital & Regional plc. This acquisition, completed via a scheme of arrangement, reflects NewRiver’s strategic expansion and adherence to regulatory requirements, potentially strengthening its market position and enhancing value for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NRR) stock is a Buy with a £80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewRiver REIT stock, see the GB:NRR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025