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Macfarlane Group PLC (GB:MACF)
LSE:MACF

Macfarlane (MACF) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:MACF

Macfarlane

(LSE:MACF)

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Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
73.00p
â–²(1.39% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
The score is held back primarily by the sharp 2025 profitability decline and higher leverage, which increase risk despite positive free cash flow. Technicals are also weak-to-neutral with the price below key moving averages. These are partially offset by an attractive dividend yield and a moderate P/E.
Positive Factors
Revenue recovery / demand resilience
A return to revenue growth (£300.8m, +4.7% YoY) after two down years indicates resilient end-market demand across industrial and e‑commerce customers. Sustained top-line recovery supports scale benefits in distribution and helps absorb fixed costs, underpinning medium-term profitability recovery.
Consistent cash generation
Positive operating cash flow (£24.8m) and free cash flow (£20.2m) demonstrate durable cash-generation from the core distribution business. Strong FCF coverage of earnings enhances the company’s ability to fund dividends, capex and gradual deleveraging without relying on external financing in the medium term.
Solid gross margin & service-led model
A gross margin near 37% reflects structural cushioning against input cost swings inherent in a distributor-plus-services model. Packaging services and tailored solutions increase customer stickiness and enable higher-value sales, supporting gross-profit stability and margin sustainability over several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp profitability decline
Net income collapsing to £6.3m and margin compressing to ~2.1% materially reduces internal capacity to reinvest and build reserves. Persistently low operating profit margins make the business more sensitive to cost inflation or volume drops, limiting sustainable earnings power until margins recover.
Rising financial leverage
A material increase in leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.15) reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk. With compressed profitability, higher debt amplifies downside risk and constrains strategic options such as M&A, capex or accelerating deleveraging without pressuring cash resources.
Weakened returns on capital
ROE falling to ~5.2% from double-digit levels signals weaker capital efficiency after asset expansion. Lower returns imply longer payback periods for invested capital and reduced shareholder value creation unless management restores margin and operating profitability sustainably.

Macfarlane (MACF) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Macfarlane Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMacfarlane Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes protective packaging products to businesses. The company operates through Packaging Distribution and Manufacturing Operations segments. The Packaging Distribution segment distributes packaging materials; and supplies storage and warehousing services in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Europe. The Manufacturing Operations segment designs, manufactures, and assembles timber, corrugated, and foam-based packaging materials in the United Kingdom. The company also distributes and supplies packaging equipment; and recovers waste papers and corrugated boards for recycling. In addition, it serves e-commerce retail, logistics, medical, automotive, aerospace, electronics, high street retail, household essentials, and food and hospitality industries. The company was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Glasgow, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyMacfarlane generates revenue primarily through the sale of packaging products and solutions. The company's revenue model is built on several key streams, including direct sales to businesses, distribution of packaging materials, and the provision of bespoke packaging solutions tailored to client specifications. Significant partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers enable Macfarlane to maintain a competitive edge in pricing and product availability. Additionally, the company benefits from recurring revenue through long-term contracts with clients in various sectors, ensuring a steady income flow. Macfarlane's commitment to sustainability and innovation also attracts customers seeking environmentally friendly packaging options, further enhancing its market position and revenue potential.

Macfarlane Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue rebounded in 2025 (+4.7% YoY) and free cash flow stayed positive (20.2m), but profitability weakened sharply (net income down to 6.3m; margin ~2.1%) and leverage rose materially (debt-to-equity ~1.15), reducing financial flexibility.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Revenue has recovered to 300.8m in 2025 (+4.7% YoY) after two down years, showing demand resilience. However, profitability weakened sharply in 2025: net income fell to 6.3m (from 15.5m in 2024) and net margin compressed to ~2.1% (from ~5.7%), with EBIT and EBITDA margins also materially lower—suggesting a higher cost base and/or pricing pressure. Gross margin remains solid (~37%), but the recent earnings step-down is a key overhang despite the top-line rebound.
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Leverage increased meaningfully in 2025: total debt rose to 138.3m while equity was 120.6m, taking debt-to-equity to ~1.15 (up from ~0.47 in 2024). This balance-sheet shift reduces financial flexibility and raises risk if profits remain pressured. Total assets expanded to 277.8m, but returns weakened, with return on equity dropping to ~5.2% in 2025 versus double-digit levels in prior years.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash generation remains positive and supportive: 2025 operating cash flow was 24.8m and free cash flow was 20.2m, only slightly down versus 2024 (free cash flow growth -2.9%). Free cash flow covered a large portion of earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.82), which helps quality-of-earnings optics. That said, cash flow relative to the (now larger) debt load is less comfortable, and the multi-year pattern shows variability (notably weaker free cash flow in 2022 versus 2023).
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue300.81M270.44M280.71M290.43M264.46M
Gross Profit112.17M105.37M105.68M98.06M89.47M
EBITDA30.56M38.96M36.19M34.30M31.73M
Net Income6.32M15.53M14.97M15.64M12.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets277.79M246.93M221.23M216.16M216.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.38M12.93M7.69M5.71M12.31M
Total Debt138.28M57.72M43.34M43.71M44.78M
Total Liabilities157.23M123.66M106.65M110.14M121.27M
Stockholders Equity120.56M123.27M114.58M106.02M94.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow20.21M22.50M31.33M14.71M21.67M
Operating Cash Flow24.78M25.43M33.51M18.00M23.80M
Investing Cash Flow-17.36M-13.48M-16.55M-11.59M-8.96M
Financing Cash Flow-5.96M-6.01M-15.32M-13.18M-7.94M

Macfarlane Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price72.00
Price Trends
50DMA
72.11
Negative
100DMA
72.39
Negative
200DMA
87.44
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Positive
RSI
44.85
Neutral
STOCH
35.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MACF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.68, below the 50-day MA of 72.11, and below the 200-day MA of 87.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MACF.

Macfarlane Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
£44.67M7.8012.08%11.65%-3.45%-44.02%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
55
Neutral
£112.11M17.9910.01%5.24%6.97%-18.59%
52
Neutral
£60.03M-0.70-41.98%―-38.64%-792.57%
49
Neutral
£41.41M22.38――-7.27%―
48
Neutral
£13.30M153.170.17%―-3.72%―
47
Neutral
£33.23M-0.73-19.28%―-11.65%-273.57%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:MACF
Macfarlane
71.60
-28.18
-28.24%
GB:CAR
Carclo plc
56.40
34.40
156.36%
GB:HEAD
Headlam
41.40
-74.60
-64.31%
GB:IGR
IG Design
63.00
2.20
3.62%
GB:PMP
Portmeirion
96.50
-39.50
-29.04%
GB:ULTP
Ultimate Products plc
53.30
-20.90
-28.17%

Macfarlane Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Macfarlane profit drops despite higher sales as Pitreavie setback and costs bite
Negative
Feb 26, 2026

Macfarlane Group reported 2025 results showing revenue up 11% to £300.8m but a sharp decline in operating profit and earnings, hit by weaker Packaging Distribution demand, rising costs and the operational impact of a fatal incident at newly acquired corrugate manufacturer Pitreavie. Manufacturing Operations, supported by the Polyformes acquisition and strong defence and aerospace demand, performed more robustly, while the group maintained its dividend, advanced a £4m share buyback, managed net bank debt conservatively within a £40m facility and is preparing its pension scheme for a potential buy‑in.

Management has outlined 2026 priorities focused on restoring Packaging Distribution margins, recovering Pitreavie with a £1.2m equipment investment to restore capacity by Q2 2026, improving operational efficiency and refining sourcing to reduce input costs. Although acquisitions are paused in the near term, the board is working on a future pipeline and remains confident that executing these measures, alongside ongoing sustainability initiatives and customer support on new packaging regulations, will rebuild momentum despite a challenging market backdrop.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a 90 GBX price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Macfarlane profit drops despite higher sales as Pitreavie setback and costs bite
Negative
Feb 26, 2026

Macfarlane Group reported 2025 results showing revenue up 11% to £300.8m but a sharp decline in operating profit and earnings, hit by weaker Packaging Distribution demand, rising costs and the operational impact of a fatal incident at newly acquired corrugate manufacturer Pitreavie. Manufacturing Operations, supported by the Polyformes acquisition and strong defence and aerospace demand, performed more robustly, while the group maintained its dividend, advanced a £4m share buyback, managed net bank debt conservatively within a £40m facility and is preparing its pension scheme for a potential buy‑in.

Management has outlined 2026 priorities focused on restoring Packaging Distribution margins, recovering Pitreavie with a £1.2m equipment investment to restore capacity by Q2 2026, improving operational efficiency and refining sourcing to reduce input costs. Although acquisitions are paused in the near term, the board is working on a future pipeline and remains confident that executing these measures, alongside ongoing sustainability initiatives and customer support on new packaging regulations, will rebuild momentum despite a challenging market backdrop.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a 90 GBX price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Macfarlane tightens share base with latest buyback as it updates voting rights
Positive
Feb 23, 2026

Macfarlane Group PLC, a long-established UK and European protective packaging specialist listed on the London Stock Exchange, operates through distribution and manufacturing divisions serving more than 20,000 customers. Headquartered in Glasgow, it runs 43 sites and works with 1,700 suppliers to provide over 600,000 packaging lines that support supply chain efficiency, sustainability and brand presentation.

The company has continued its ongoing share buyback programme by purchasing and cancelling 68,000 ordinary shares at 74.02 pence each on 20 February 2026. Following this transaction, Macfarlane’s issued share capital and total voting rights stand at 156,901,491 shares, a change that slightly concentrates existing shareholders’ ownership and may support capital efficiency metrics.

The buyback was executed via Shore Capital Stockbrokers on the London Stock Exchange’s main market. The updated share count provides the new reference point for investors and regulators when assessing disclosure thresholds and changes in significant shareholdings under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a £73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Macfarlane cancels 55,000 shares under ongoing buyback programme
Positive
Feb 16, 2026

Macfarlane Group PLC, headquartered in Glasgow and employing over 1,000 people at 43 sites in the UK and continental Europe, is a leading distributor and manufacturer of protective packaging. Working with around 1,700 suppliers and handling over 600,000 product lines, it focuses on helping business customers cut supply chain costs, improve efficiency and sustainability, and enhance brand presentation.

The group has continued its ongoing share buyback programme, purchasing 55,000 ordinary shares for cancellation at 73.44 pence each on 13 February 2026 through Shore Capital Stockbrokers. Following this transaction, Macfarlane’s issued share capital stands at 156,969,491 ordinary shares, all carrying voting rights, a change that marginally consolidates existing shareholders’ stakes and may slightly enhance earnings per share while informing investors’ disclosure threshold calculations under FCA rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a £73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Macfarlane sets date for 2025 results and investor presentation
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026

Macfarlane Group PLC, a London-listed specialist in protective packaging, operates two main divisions: Packaging Distribution, the leading UK distributor of protective packaging products, and Manufacturing Operations, which designs and produces solutions for high-value and fragile items. Serving more than 20,000 customers across multiple sectors in the UK and Europe, the Glasgow-headquartered group employs over 1,200 people at 42 sites and collaborates with more than 2,000 suppliers to help clients cut supply chain costs, improve efficiency and enhance sustainability.

The company has announced that it will publish its results for the year ended 31 December 2025 on 26 February 2026, followed by a live online investor presentation on 3 March 2026 hosted by chief executive Peter Atkinson and finance director Ivor Gray. The event, accessible via the Investor Meet Company platform to both existing and potential shareholders, underlines Macfarlane’s efforts to maintain active engagement with the investment community and provide transparency around its performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a £73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Macfarlane Trims Share Count With Latest Buyback Tranche
Positive
Feb 9, 2026

Macfarlane Group PLC has executed another tranche of its ongoing share buyback programme, repurchasing 50,000 ordinary shares at 71.84 pence each for cancellation. The move slightly reduces the company’s equity base while reaffirming management’s capital allocation strategy and may be interpreted as a signal of confidence in the business by returning surplus capital to shareholders.

Following this latest transaction, Macfarlane’s issued share capital now stands at 157,054,491 ordinary shares, all of which carry voting rights and none of which are held in treasury. The updated share count provides a new reference point for investors monitoring their notifiable holdings under UK disclosure rules and marginally enhances existing shareholders’ proportional ownership and voting power.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a £73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Macfarlane Cancels 40,000 Shares as Buyback Programme Progresses
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026

Macfarlane Group PLC has continued its previously announced share buyback programme with the purchase and cancellation of 40,000 ordinary shares on 30 January 2026 at a price of 71.705 pence per share, executed via Shore Capital Stockbrokers. Following this transaction, the company’s issued share capital stands at 157,074,491 ordinary shares, all carrying voting rights, clarifying the new total voting rights figure for shareholders monitoring their disclosure thresholds under FCA transparency rules and underlining the group’s active capital management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Macfarlane Reduces Share Capital with Further Buyback of 40,000 Shares
Neutral
Jan 26, 2026

Macfarlane Group PLC has continued its previously announced share buyback programme with the purchase and cancellation of 40,000 ordinary shares at 71.47 pence each on 23 January 2026. Following this latest transaction, the company’s issued share capital stands at 157,114,491 ordinary shares, all carrying voting rights and with none held in treasury, a change that marginally increases existing shareholders’ proportional ownership and provides an updated denominator for investors monitoring disclosure thresholds under UK regulatory rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Macfarlane Cancels 30,000 Shares Under Ongoing Buyback Programme
Neutral
Jan 19, 2026

Macfarlane Group has continued its previously announced share buyback programme with the repurchase and cancellation of 30,000 ordinary shares on 16 January 2026 at a volume-weighted average price of 71.817 pence, executed through Shore Capital Stockbrokers. Following this transaction, the company’s issued share capital stands at 157,154,491 ordinary shares, all carrying voting rights, a change that marginally enhances earnings per share and adjusts the denominator used by investors for calculating disclosure thresholds under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Hold with a £73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Macfarlane Cancels 30,000 Shares Under Ongoing Buyback Programme
Neutral
Jan 12, 2026

Macfarlane Group PLC has bought back and cancelled 30,000 of its own ordinary shares at 72 pence per share as part of its ongoing share buyback programme, executed via Shore Capital Stockbrokers. Following this transaction, the company’s issued share capital now stands at 157,184,491 ordinary shares, all of which carry voting rights, providing an updated reference point for shareholders assessing their disclosure obligations under UK transparency rules and underscoring Macfarlane’s continued use of capital management tools to adjust its share base.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Buy with a £77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Macfarlane Reduces Share Capital with Further Share Buyback
Positive
Dec 22, 2025

Macfarlane Group PLC has continued its previously announced share buyback programme with the purchase and cancellation of 60,000 ordinary shares at 72.18 pence each on 19 December 2025, executed through Shore Capital Stockbrokers. Following this transaction, the group’s issued share capital now comprises 157,214,491 ordinary shares with no shares held in treasury, setting the new total voting rights figure that shareholders must use when assessing disclosure thresholds under the FCA’s transparency rules and marginally enhancing existing investors’ proportional ownership.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Buy with a £77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Macfarlane Group Executes Share Buyback, Cancelling 60,000 Shares
Positive
Dec 15, 2025

Macfarlane Group PLC announced the purchase and cancellation of 60,000 ordinary shares as part of its share buyback program, impacting the company’s total voting rights and issued share capital. This move is part of Macfarlane’s strategy to manage its capital structure, potentially enhancing shareholder value and reflecting confidence in the company’s financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Buy with a £77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Macfarlane Group Executes Share Buyback, Adjusts Voting Rights
Neutral
Dec 8, 2025

Macfarlane Group PLC has announced the purchase and cancellation of 60,000 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This transaction, executed through Shore Capital Stockbrokers Limited, results in a total issued share capital of 157,334,491 ordinary shares, impacting the company’s total voting rights and potentially affecting shareholder interests under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MACF) stock is a Buy with a £77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macfarlane stock, see the GB:MACF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 28, 2026