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Firstgroup PLC (GB:FGP)
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Firstgroup (FGP) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:FGP

Firstgroup

(LSE:FGP)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
192.00p
▲(9.71% Upside)
Firstgroup's overall stock score is driven by solid financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and economic challenges highlighted in the earnings call. Continued focus on growth and debt management could enhance future prospects.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions highlights the company's ability to expand its market presence and enhance its competitive position.
Operational Efficiency
The company's focus on operational efficiency and cost savings through electrification and overhead reductions supports long-term profitability and sustainability.
Sustainability Initiatives
Progress in fleet electrification positions the company as a leader in sustainable transport, aligning with regulatory trends and consumer preferences for eco-friendly solutions.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.
Inflationary Pressures
Inflationary pressures, especially in wages, can erode profit margins, impacting the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing and profitability.
Bus Volume Decline
Declining bus volumes indicate challenges in maintaining ridership amid economic pressures, potentially affecting revenue stability in the long term.

Firstgroup (FGP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom and the United States. The company operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 4,900 buses in the United Kingdom. The First Rail segment operates a passenger rail network that provides long-distance, commuter, regional, and sleeper services through a portfolio of Great Western Railway, South Western Railway, TransPennine Express, and Avanti West Coast franchises; passenger rail services; and hull trains and Lumos. FirstGroup plc was founded in 1986 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyFirstGroup generates revenue primarily through the provision of public transportation services, which includes bus fares, rail ticket sales, and coach services. The company benefits from various revenue streams such as passenger fares, government subsidies, and contracts for operating public transport services. Key revenue streams include ticket sales from First Bus operations, which serve local commuters, and revenue from First Rail through franchise agreements with the UK government. Additionally, Greyhound contributes significantly to FirstGroup's earnings through intercity bus services in North America. The company often enters into partnerships with local governments and transit authorities, which can include service contracts and subsidies that bolster its revenue. Other factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency improvements and strategic investments in technology to enhance customer experience and reduce operational costs.

Firstgroup Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 18, 2025
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights significant revenue growth, strategic acquisitions, operational efficiencies, and sustainability initiatives. However, these are balanced by challenges in bus volume decline due to economic factors, inflationary pressures, and the costs associated with open access rail expansion. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain a strong financial position and propose a higher dividend.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Group Adjusted Revenue
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Adjusted Earnings Growth
Adjusted earnings per share increased by 16% to 9.9p, supported by the repurchase of circa 22 million shares.
Interim Dividend Proposal
The Board proposed an interim dividend of 2.2p per share, up 29% against the prior year.
Reduction in Lost Mileage
First Bus achieved a 24% reduction in lost mileage to 1.3%.
Operational Efficiency and Cost Savings
Annualized overhead savings of around GBP 15 million were achieved, with GBP 7 million efficiencies through electrification progress and overhead savings.
Sustainability Initiatives
Progress in fleet electrification with 23% of the fleet now zero emission and the launch of First Charge.
Open Access Rail Expansion
Approval of extension of Lumo services to Glasgow and new Stirling to London Houston service, increasing seat miles capacity.
Negative Updates
Impact of Economic Factors on Bus Volumes
Total bus volumes down by 4% due to economic factors and the transition to a GBP 3 fare cap.
Inflationary and National Insurance Pressures
Cost increases due to inflation, particularly wages, and higher national insurance contributions impacting profit margins.
Open Access Rail Challenges
Industrial action at Hull Trains and GBP 1.3 million mobilization costs for the new Stirling service impacted adjusted operating profit.
Higher CapEx and Adjusted Net Debt
CapEx has been impacted by investment in bus electrification, resulting in an adjusted net debt position of GBP 207.6 million.
Company Guidance
During FirstGroup's 2026 Half Year Results Presentation, they reported substantial growth despite economic challenges, with group adjusted revenue increasing by 30% to GBP 834 million, largely due to the acquisition of First Bus London. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 16% to 9.9p, supported by the repurchase of approximately 22 million shares. The Board proposed an interim dividend of 2.2p per share, a 29% increase from the previous year. First Bus achieved a 24% reduction in lost mileage to 1.3% and improved its Net Promoter Score to plus 15. FirstGroup's adjusted operating profit reached GBP 103.6 million, up 2.8%, and adjusted earnings grew by 7.1% to GBP 55.5 million. The company maintained a strong balance sheet, with an adjusted net debt of GBP 207.6 million and a debt cover ratio of 0.95x. Looking ahead, the group expects modest growth in adjusted EPS for the full year 2026 and aims to maintain this level in 2027, with a focus on U.K. growth and diversification strategies.

Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Firstgroup demonstrates solid financials with improved profitability and operational efficiency in 2025. Despite challenges with high leverage, the company maintains a strong cash flow position, supporting its financial stability.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Firstgroup's revenue has shown fluctuations with a recent decline from 2024 to 2025. Despite this, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin improved in 2025, turning positive after a loss in 2024, which demonstrates a recovery in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, highlighting operational efficiency gains.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity improved in 2025, suggesting better profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing compared to assets, though it has decreased over time.
Cash Flow
67
Positive
Cash flow metrics are robust, with strong free cash flow generation in 2025, reflecting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, emphasizing operational cash generation relative to accounting profit. However, the free cash flow growth rate has varied, indicating some inconsistency in cash flow performance.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2021Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.07B4.72B4.65B4.75B4.32B4.59B
Gross Profit183.90M2.02B1.81B2.24B2.04B2.12B
EBITDA611.90M656.20M849.80M896.70M857.30M863.60M
Net Income127.50M-15.90M127.50M87.10M78.40M636.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.66B3.81B3.66B4.41B8.29B3.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments171.40M496.50M171.40M791.40M1.44B787.70M
Total Debt1.35B1.60B1.35B2.99B3.18B1.41B
Total Liabilities2.95B3.17B2.95B3.66B7.14B2.95B
Stockholders Equity696.70M633.30M696.70M740.20M1.18B876.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow606.40M324.00M597.80M402.30M785.80M-184.80M
Operating Cash Flow757.10M543.30M754.20M580.20M1.21B66.80M
Investing Cash Flow-153.80M-10.20M-150.90M73.00M-303.00M2.08B
Financing Cash Flow-641.50M-776.30M-641.50M-640.90M-326.90M-2.89B

Firstgroup Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price175.00
Price Trends
50DMA
204.88
Negative
100DMA
212.12
Negative
200DMA
194.76
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-9.05
Positive
RSI
26.61
Positive
STOCH
11.70
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 175 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 194.20, below the 50-day MA of 204.88, and below the 200-day MA of 194.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -9.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.61 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:FGP.

Firstgroup Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
£2.52B53.215.21%1.40%0.84%-62.73%
71
Outperform
£494.47M14.9427.48%3.93%5.78%-6.80%
65
Neutral
£781.64M9.737.58%7.71%-1.12%-35.75%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
61
Neutral
£1.13B9.7719.57%3.95%3.45%43.01%
56
Neutral
£99.24M-17.46%21.17%-237.25%
42
Neutral
£133.42M-0.13-184.46%-4.74%-610.71%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:FGP
Firstgroup
175.00
27.76
18.85%
GB:GFRD
Galliford Try
504.00
141.70
39.11%
GB:MPAC
Mpac Group PLC
330.00
-175.00
-34.65%
GB:MCG
Mobico Group
22.32
-62.13
-73.57%
GB:ZIG
ZIGUP plc
342.50
-9.37
-2.66%
GB:SRP
Serco Group plc
254.40
101.27
66.13%

Firstgroup Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
FirstGroup Reports Strong H1 2026 Performance and Strategic Growth Plans
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

FirstGroup plc reports a positive earnings trajectory for the first half of 2026, with a 30% increase in adjusted revenue to £833.6 million, driven by growth in bus revenues and First Rail services. The company has made significant progress in business restructuring, achieving £6 million in savings towards a £15 million target, and anticipates modest growth in adjusted earnings per share for the full year. The completion of a £50 million buyback program and a focus on fleet electrification highlight FirstGroup’s commitment to shareholder returns and sustainable operations. The company is well-positioned for future growth, with plans to expand open access rail services and explore strategic acquisitions in the UK.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £218.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under SIP
Positive
Nov 12, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, purchased 73 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The shares were acquired at a price of £2.0704 each on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction, disclosed in compliance with Market Abuse Regulation, highlights the executive’s investment in the company, potentially signaling confidence in its future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £218.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of 31 October 2025, which includes 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 188,164,166 held in treasury. This results in 562,530,849 voting rights available for shareholders, a figure that will be used to determine notification requirements under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. This announcement is crucial for shareholders to understand their voting power and any changes in their percentage of voting rights, impacting their influence within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £218.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Executive Share Purchase Under SIP
Neutral
Oct 14, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced a recent transaction involving Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, who purchased 69 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This purchase, conducted at a price of £2.1720 per share on the London Stock Exchange, is part of the company’s regulatory compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, highlighting transparency in executive share dealings.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £228.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Completes £50 Million Share Buyback Programme
Positive
Oct 3, 2025

FirstGroup plc has completed its on-market share buyback programme, repurchasing 22,439,652 shares at an average price of 222.81 pence per share, totaling nearly £50 million. This buyback is part of FirstGroup’s strategic financial management, potentially enhancing shareholder value and reflecting confidence in the company’s financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £232.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Strategic Share Buyback
Neutral
Oct 3, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 165,000 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 222.79 pence per share. This move, facilitated by Panmure Liberum Limited, is part of FirstGroup’s strategy to manage its capital structure effectively. The company intends to hold these shares in treasury, which could impact the total number of voting rights and shares available in the market, potentially influencing shareholder value and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £232.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced that as of September 30, 2025, its capital comprises 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 187,844,110 held in treasury, resulting in 562,850,905 total voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations regarding voting rights percentages under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £232.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback to Enhance Financial Strategy
Positive
Sep 23, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 134,884 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 217.15 pence. This move, facilitated through Panmure Liberum Limited, aims to hold these shares as treasury shares, with the potential for cancellation in the future. The transaction reflects FirstGroup’s strategic financial management and may impact shareholder value by potentially increasing earnings per share.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £227.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Other
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, acquired 70 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects ongoing managerial engagement with the company’s stock, potentially signaling confidence in FirstGroup’s market position and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback as Part of Capital Management Strategy
Neutral
Sep 5, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 147,486 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 214.9288 pence. This transaction is part of a previously announced program and reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure. The acquired shares are held in treasury, with the possibility of future cancellation, impacting the total voting rights and share calculations for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Updated Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Sep 1, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced that as of August 31, 2025, its capital consists of 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 184,739,847 held in treasury, resulting in 565,955,168 voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements regarding changes in voting rights percentage under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, impacting how stakeholders manage their shareholdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CEO Sells Shares, Retains Significant Stake
Neutral
Aug 19, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that its CEO, Graham Sutherland, sold 199,428 shares at a price of 225.9 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. Despite this sale, Sutherland still holds 565,132 shares, which represent over 330% of his annual salary, significantly exceeding the company’s target of 200% as per the Directors’ Remuneration Policy. This transaction is part of the company’s compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, ensuring transparency in the shareholding activities of its executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
FirstGroup Announces Executive Share Awards Under LTIP and EABP
Positive
Aug 19, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced the release of conditional share awards under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) and Executive Annual Bonus Plan (EABP) to key executives, Graham Sutherland and Ryan Mangold. The awards, which were granted in 2022, have vested fully following performance reviews, with shares being sold to cover tax obligations and remaining shares transferred to nominee accounts. This move reflects the company’s commitment to rewarding its leadership team and maintaining transparency in its executive compensation practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Through Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
Aug 19, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, acquired 192 shares at £2.2837 per share through the reinvestment of dividend income in the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, disclosed under the UK Market Abuse Regulation, highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 19, 2025