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Firstgroup PLC (GB:FGP)
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Firstgroup (FGP) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:FGP

Firstgroup

(LSE:FGP)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
218.00p
▲(4.91% Upside)
Firstgroup's financial performance is a key strength, with improved profitability and strong cash flow. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which weighs on the overall score. The stock's valuation is attractive, offering potential upside if market conditions improve.

Firstgroup (FGP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFirstGroup plc (FGP) is a leading transport operator in the UK and North America, primarily focused on bus and rail services. The company operates through several divisions, including First Bus, which provides local bus services across the UK, and First Rail, which manages various rail franchises. FirstGroup is committed to providing reliable and sustainable transport solutions, catering to millions of passengers each year with a range of core services designed to enhance mobility and connectivity in urban and rural areas.
How the Company Makes MoneyFirstGroup generates revenue primarily through the provision of public transport services. Its key revenue streams include fare collections from bus and rail passengers, government subsidies for public transport services, and contractual payments from operating rail franchises. In the UK, FirstGroup participates in bus contracts that may include both commercial and subsidized services, while in North America, it operates school bus and transit services. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with local governments and transport authorities to secure contracts for public transport services, further contributing to its revenues. The overall earnings are influenced by factors such as passenger demand, operational efficiency, and regulatory frameworks, as well as investments in fleet modernization and sustainability initiatives.

Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Firstgroup demonstrates solid financials with improved profitability and operational efficiency in 2025. Despite high leverage, the company maintains a strong cash flow position, supporting its financial stability.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Firstgroup's revenue has shown fluctuations with a recent decline from 2024 to 2025. Despite this, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin improved in 2025, turning positive after a loss in 2024, which demonstrates a recovery in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, highlighting operational efficiency gains.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity improved in 2025, suggesting better profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing compared to assets, though it has decreased over time.
Cash Flow
67
Positive
Cash flow metrics are robust, with strong free cash flow generation in 2025, reflecting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, emphasizing operational cash generation relative to accounting profit. However, the free cash flow growth rate has varied, indicating some inconsistency in cash flow performance.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.07B4.65B4.72B4.75B4.59B4.32B
Gross Profit183.90M1.81B2.02B2.24B2.12B2.04B
EBITDA611.90M849.80M656.20M896.70M863.60M857.30M
Net Income127.50M127.50M-15.90M87.10M636.40M78.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.66B3.66B3.81B4.41B3.83B8.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments171.40M171.40M496.50M791.40M787.70M1.44B
Total Debt1.35B1.35B1.63B2.07B1.41B3.52B
Total Liabilities2.95B2.95B3.17B3.66B2.95B7.14B
Stockholders Equity696.70M696.70M633.30M740.20M876.60M1.18B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow606.40M597.80M324.00M402.30M-184.80M785.80M
Operating Cash Flow757.10M754.20M543.30M580.20M66.80M1.21B
Investing Cash Flow-153.80M-150.90M-10.20M73.00M2.08B-303.00M
Financing Cash Flow-641.50M-641.50M-776.30M-640.90M-2.89B-326.90M

Firstgroup Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price207.80
Price Trends
50DMA
216.23
Negative
100DMA
219.77
Negative
200DMA
193.73
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.72
Positive
RSI
42.34
Neutral
STOCH
52.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 207.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 211.85, below the 50-day MA of 216.23, and above the 200-day MA of 193.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:FGP.

Firstgroup Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
£2.53B53.675.21%1.38%0.84%-62.73%
£510.30M15.6527.48%3.22%5.78%-8.32%
£788.42M9.767.58%7.61%-1.12%-35.75%
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
£1.13B9.7418.47%3.13%7.45%
£117.29M-9.38-17.46%21.17%-237.25%
£157.47M-0.15-184.46%-4.74%-610.71%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:FGP
Firstgroup
207.80
76.93
58.78%
GB:GFRD
Galliford Try
520.00
145.25
38.76%
GB:MPAC
Mpac Group PLC
390.00
-100.00
-20.41%
GB:MCG
Mobico Group
25.40
-43.10
-62.92%
GB:ZIG
ZIGUP plc
349.00
20.68
6.30%
GB:SRP
Serco Group plc
254.20
82.63
48.16%

Firstgroup Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Executive Share Purchase Under SIP
Neutral
Oct 14, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced a recent transaction involving Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, who purchased 69 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This purchase, conducted at a price of £2.1720 per share on the London Stock Exchange, is part of the company’s regulatory compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, highlighting transparency in executive share dealings.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £228.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Completes £50 Million Share Buyback Programme
Positive
Oct 3, 2025

FirstGroup plc has completed its on-market share buyback programme, repurchasing 22,439,652 shares at an average price of 222.81 pence per share, totaling nearly £50 million. This buyback is part of FirstGroup’s strategic financial management, potentially enhancing shareholder value and reflecting confidence in the company’s financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £232.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Strategic Share Buyback
Neutral
Oct 3, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 165,000 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 222.79 pence per share. This move, facilitated by Panmure Liberum Limited, is part of FirstGroup’s strategy to manage its capital structure effectively. The company intends to hold these shares in treasury, which could impact the total number of voting rights and shares available in the market, potentially influencing shareholder value and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £232.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced that as of September 30, 2025, its capital comprises 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 187,844,110 held in treasury, resulting in 562,850,905 total voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations regarding voting rights percentages under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £232.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback to Enhance Financial Strategy
Positive
Sep 23, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 134,884 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 217.15 pence. This move, facilitated through Panmure Liberum Limited, aims to hold these shares as treasury shares, with the potential for cancellation in the future. The transaction reflects FirstGroup’s strategic financial management and may impact shareholder value by potentially increasing earnings per share.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £227.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Other
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, acquired 70 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects ongoing managerial engagement with the company’s stock, potentially signaling confidence in FirstGroup’s market position and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback as Part of Capital Management Strategy
Neutral
Sep 5, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 147,486 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 214.9288 pence. This transaction is part of a previously announced program and reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure. The acquired shares are held in treasury, with the possibility of future cancellation, impacting the total voting rights and share calculations for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Updated Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Sep 1, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced that as of August 31, 2025, its capital consists of 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 184,739,847 held in treasury, resulting in 565,955,168 voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements regarding changes in voting rights percentage under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, impacting how stakeholders manage their shareholdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CEO Sells Shares, Retains Significant Stake
Neutral
Aug 19, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that its CEO, Graham Sutherland, sold 199,428 shares at a price of 225.9 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. Despite this sale, Sutherland still holds 565,132 shares, which represent over 330% of his annual salary, significantly exceeding the company’s target of 200% as per the Directors’ Remuneration Policy. This transaction is part of the company’s compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, ensuring transparency in the shareholding activities of its executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
FirstGroup Announces Executive Share Awards Under LTIP and EABP
Positive
Aug 19, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced the release of conditional share awards under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) and Executive Annual Bonus Plan (EABP) to key executives, Graham Sutherland and Ryan Mangold. The awards, which were granted in 2022, have vested fully following performance reviews, with shares being sold to cover tax obligations and remaining shares transferred to nominee accounts. This move reflects the company’s commitment to rewarding its leadership team and maintaining transparency in its executive compensation practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Through Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
Aug 19, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, acquired 192 shares at £2.2837 per share through the reinvestment of dividend income in the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, disclosed under the UK Market Abuse Regulation, highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £259.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under SIP
Neutral
Aug 13, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced a transaction involving Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, who purchased 65 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, is part of regulatory compliance under the Market Abuse Regulation, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback Program
Positive
Aug 13, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, acquiring 14,379 of its ordinary shares at a consistent price of 230 pence per share. This transaction is part of a previously announced buyback initiative, and the company plans to hold these shares in treasury, with the possibility of cancellation in the future. The move reflects FirstGroup’s strategic financial management, potentially enhancing shareholder value and influencing the company’s market positioning by adjusting the number of shares in circulation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback as Part of Ongoing Programme
Neutral
Aug 12, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback transaction, purchasing 87,418 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 229.70 pence per share. This move is part of its ongoing share buyback programme, and the acquired shares are currently held in treasury, potentially impacting the company’s share capital structure and voting rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback Programme
Neutral
Aug 8, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback, acquiring 13,348 ordinary shares at a consistent price of 230 pence each, as part of its ongoing share buyback programme. This transaction, facilitated by Panmure Liberum Limited, results in FirstGroup holding a total of 180,771,764 shares in treasury, with 569,923,251 shares remaining in circulation. The company may choose to cancel the treasury shares in the future, impacting its share capital structure and potentially influencing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback to Optimize Capital Structure
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback, purchasing 28,104 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 229.59 pence per share. This transaction is part of its ongoing share buyback programme, and the acquired shares will be held in treasury, with the potential for future cancellation. This move reflects FirstGroup’s strategic focus on optimizing its capital structure, potentially enhancing shareholder value and impacting its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Aug 1, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of July 31, 2025. The company, which operates in the transportation sector, has a capital consisting of 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 179,914,314 held in treasury, resulting in 570,780,701 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
FirstGroup Expands Open Access Rail Services with New Extensions
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

FirstGroup plc has been granted extensions for its Hull Trains and Lumo open access rail services by the Office of Rail and Road, increasing its capacity by approximately 118 million seat miles. This expansion, which includes new services between Glasgow, Newcastle, London, and Hull, is part of FirstGroup’s strategy to significantly grow its open access business and enhance connectivity for underserved communities. Despite the setback of not receiving approval for a new service between London and Sheffield, the company remains focused on exploring further opportunities to expand its rail network.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
FirstGroup Expands with Acquisition of Tetley’s Coaches
Positive
Jul 28, 2025

FirstGroup plc has acquired Tetley’s Motor Services Limited, a Leeds-based coach and bus operator with a fleet of 55 vehicles and a strong contract portfolio in Central Leeds and the West Yorkshire area. This strategic acquisition aims to expand FirstGroup’s operational footprint and contract portfolio in key markets, complementing its existing businesses and enhancing its market share in adjacent services.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

DividendsShareholder Meetings
FirstGroup plc Announces Successful AGM Resolutions
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that all resolutions were passed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting. Key resolutions included the approval of the annual report, director re-elections, and the declaration of a final dividend. The successful passing of these resolutions reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company for continued stability and growth in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Completes First Tranche of £50m Share Buyback
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced the completion of the first tranche of its £50 million on-market share buyback programme, with RBC Europe Limited purchasing £25 million worth of shares. The second tranche, also valued at £25 million, will now commence under the management of Panmure Liberum Limited. This buyback initiative reflects FirstGroup’s strategic financial management, potentially enhancing shareholder value and demonstrating confidence in the company’s financial health and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback as Part of Capital Optimization Strategy
Neutral
Jul 24, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback transaction, purchasing 384,729 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 220.18 pence per share. This move is part of its ongoing share buyback program, and the purchased shares are intended to be held as treasury shares, with the possibility of cancellation in the future. The transaction impacts the company’s total voting rights, which now stand at 574,079,789, excluding treasury shares. This strategic financial maneuver could influence shareholder value and market perception, reflecting FirstGroup’s commitment to optimizing its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 17, 2025