Firstgroup (FGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £1.04B
• Dividend Yield: 3.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: 3.45%
• EPS Growth: 43.01%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 562,530,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,677,627
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,602,067
• PEG Ratio: 0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £248.33
• Price Target Upside: 29.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: 189.00p ▼(-1.77% Downside)

Firstgroup's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive corporate events. The stock's attractive valuation and positive earnings call further support its potential. However, bearish technical indicators suggest caution in the short term.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions highlights the company's ability to expand its market presence and enhance its competitive position.

Operational Efficiency

The company's focus on operational efficiency and cost savings through electrification and overhead reductions supports long-term profitability and sustainability.

Sustainability Initiatives

Progress in fleet electrification positions the company as a leader in sustainable transport, aligning with regulatory trends and consumer preferences for eco-friendly solutions.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Inflationary Pressures

Inflationary pressures, especially in wages, can erode profit margins, impacting the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing and profitability.

Bus Volume Decline

Declining bus volumes indicate challenges in maintaining ridership amid economic pressures, potentially affecting revenue stability in the long term.

Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom and the United States. The company operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 4,900 buses in the United Kingdom. The First Rail segment operates a passenger rail network that provides long-distance, commuter, regional, and sleeper services through a portfolio of Great Western Railway, South Western Railway, TransPennine Express, and Avanti West Coast franchises; passenger rail services; and hull trains and Lumos. FirstGroup plc was founded in 1986 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

FirstGroup generates revenue primarily through the provision of public transportation services, which includes bus fares, rail ticket sales, and coach services. The company benefits from various revenue streams such as passenger fares, government subsidies, and contracts for operating public transport services. Key revenue streams include ticket sales from First Bus operations, which serve local commuters, and revenue from First Rail through franchise agreements with the UK government. Additionally, Greyhound contributes significantly to FirstGroup's earnings through intercity bus services in North America. The company often enters into partnerships with local governments and transit authorities, which can include service contracts and subsidies that bolster its revenue. Other factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency improvements and strategic investments in technology to enhance customer experience and reduce operational costs.

Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Firstgroup's financial performance is solid with improved profitability and operational efficiency in 2025. Despite high leverage, the company maintains strong cash flow, supporting financial stability. Continued focus on revenue growth and debt reduction could enhance financial health.

Income Statement

Firstgroup's revenue has shown fluctuations with a recent decline from 2024 to 2025. Despite this, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin improved in 2025, turning positive after a loss in 2024, which demonstrates a recovery in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, highlighting operational efficiency gains.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity improved in 2025, suggesting better profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing compared to assets, though it has decreased over time.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are robust, with strong free cash flow generation in 2025, reflecting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, emphasizing operational cash generation relative to accounting profit. However, the free cash flow growth rate has varied, indicating some inconsistency in cash flow performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2021	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.02B	4.72B	4.65B	4.75B	4.32B	4.59B
Gross Profit	138.30M	2.02B	1.81B	2.24B	2.04B	2.12B
EBITDA	854.90M	656.20M	849.80M	896.70M	857.30M	863.60M
Net Income	127.20M	-15.90M	127.50M	87.10M	78.40M	636.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.36B	3.81B	3.66B	4.41B	8.29B	3.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	421.00M	496.50M	171.40M	791.40M	1.44B	787.70M
Total Debt	1.27B	1.60B	1.35B	2.99B	3.18B	1.41B
Total Liabilities	2.72B	3.17B	2.95B	3.66B	7.14B	2.95B
Stockholders Equity	622.70M	633.30M	696.70M	740.20M	1.18B	876.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	432.00M	324.00M	597.80M	402.30M	785.80M	-184.80M
Operating Cash Flow	643.80M	543.30M	754.20M	580.20M	1.21B	66.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-214.70M	-10.20M	-150.90M	73.00M	-303.00M	2.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-470.80M	-776.30M	-641.50M	-640.90M	-326.90M	-2.89B

Firstgroup Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 192.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 192.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 180.51, below the 50-day MA of 193.93, and below the 200-day MA of 196.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:FGP.

Firstgroup Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRP	73 Outperform	£2.68B	56.77	5.21%	1.30%	0.84%	-62.73%
GFRD	71 Outperform	£505.21M	15.42	27.48%	3.68%	5.78%	-6.80%
ZIG	68 Neutral	£867.48M	10.13	8.10%	6.87%	0.72%	-9.51%
FGP	64 Neutral	£1.04B	8.71	19.57%	3.64%	3.45%	43.01%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MPAC	61 Neutral	£94.43M	-7.56	-17.46%	―	21.17%	-237.25%
MCG	45 Neutral	£146.12M	-0.14	-184.46%	―	-4.74%	-610.71%

Firstgroup Corporate Events

FirstGroup CEO Increases Stake with Significant Share Purchase

FirstGroup plc announced that its CEO, Graham Sutherland, purchased 50,000 shares of the company at a price of 178.6 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction, disclosed in compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, signifies a notable investment by the CEO, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and stability, which could impact stakeholder perceptions positively.

FirstGroup Chair Purchases Significant Shareholding

FirstGroup plc announced that Lena Wilson, the Director and Chair of the Board, has purchased 11,000 shares at 178.5 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction highlights a significant investment by a key member of the company’s leadership, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability.

FirstGroup Reports Strong H1 2026 Performance and Strategic Growth Plans

FirstGroup plc reports a positive earnings trajectory for the first half of 2026, with a 30% increase in adjusted revenue to £833.6 million, driven by growth in bus revenues and First Rail services. The company has made significant progress in business restructuring, achieving £6 million in savings towards a £15 million target, and anticipates modest growth in adjusted earnings per share for the full year. The completion of a £50 million buyback program and a focus on fleet electrification highlight FirstGroup’s commitment to shareholder returns and sustainable operations. The company is well-positioned for future growth, with plans to expand open access rail services and explore strategic acquisitions in the UK.

FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under SIP

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, purchased 73 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The shares were acquired at a price of £2.0704 each on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction, disclosed in compliance with Market Abuse Regulation, highlights the executive’s investment in the company, potentially signaling confidence in its future performance.

FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure

FirstGroup plc has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of 31 October 2025, which includes 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 188,164,166 held in treasury. This results in 562,530,849 voting rights available for shareholders, a figure that will be used to determine notification requirements under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. This announcement is crucial for shareholders to understand their voting power and any changes in their percentage of voting rights, impacting their influence within the company.

FirstGroup Executive Share Purchase Under SIP

FirstGroup plc announced a recent transaction involving Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, who purchased 69 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This purchase, conducted at a price of £2.1720 per share on the London Stock Exchange, is part of the company’s regulatory compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, highlighting transparency in executive share dealings.

FirstGroup Completes £50 Million Share Buyback Programme

FirstGroup plc has completed its on-market share buyback programme, repurchasing 22,439,652 shares at an average price of 222.81 pence per share, totaling nearly £50 million. This buyback is part of FirstGroup’s strategic financial management, potentially enhancing shareholder value and reflecting confidence in the company’s financial health.

FirstGroup Executes Strategic Share Buyback

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 165,000 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 222.79 pence per share. This move, facilitated by Panmure Liberum Limited, is part of FirstGroup’s strategy to manage its capital structure effectively. The company intends to hold these shares in treasury, which could impact the total number of voting rights and shares available in the market, potentially influencing shareholder value and market perception.

FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights Update

FirstGroup plc has announced that as of September 30, 2025, its capital comprises 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 187,844,110 held in treasury, resulting in 562,850,905 total voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations regarding voting rights percentages under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback to Enhance Financial Strategy

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 134,884 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 217.15 pence. This move, facilitated through Panmure Liberum Limited, aims to hold these shares as treasury shares, with the potential for cancellation in the future. The transaction reflects FirstGroup’s strategic financial management and may impact shareholder value by potentially increasing earnings per share.

FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, acquired 70 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects ongoing managerial engagement with the company’s stock, potentially signaling confidence in FirstGroup’s market position and future prospects.