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Firstgroup PLC (GB:FGP)
LSE:FGP

Firstgroup (FGP) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Firstgroup

(LSE:FGP)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
244.00p
▲(10.91%Upside)
Firstgroup's stock is favorably positioned with strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive corporate actions. Technical indicators support a growing momentum. High leverage is a risk factor, but strategic initiatives such as share buybacks and employee share plans bolster confidence.

Firstgroup (FGP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom and the United States. The company operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 4,900 buses in the United Kingdom. The First Rail segment operates a passenger rail network that provides long-distance, commuter, regional, and sleeper services through a portfolio of Great Western Railway, South Western Railway, TransPennine Express, and Avanti West Coast franchises; passenger rail services; and hull trains and Lumos. FirstGroup plc was founded in 1986 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyFirstGroup makes money primarily through its diverse range of transportation services. In the UK, revenue is generated from its bus and rail operations, with ticket sales and government contracts being key income sources. First Bus earns money through passenger fares and government subsidies, while First Rail generates revenue through train fares and franchise agreements with the government, which may include performance-based incentives. In North America, First Student receives payments from school districts for providing school bus transportation, First Transit earns income from municipalities and other clients for managing public transit systems, and Greyhound generates revenue through ticket sales for long-distance coach travel. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and government contracts, which help stabilize its income streams.

Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary
FirstGroup's financial performance shows improvement in profitability and operational efficiency. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio poses a financial risk despite strong cash flow management.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Firstgroup's revenue has shown fluctuations with a recent decline from 2024 to 2025. Despite this, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin improved in 2025, turning positive after a loss in 2024, which demonstrates a recovery in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, highlighting operational efficiency gains.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity improved in 2025, suggesting better profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing compared to assets, though it has decreased over time.
Cash Flow
67
Positive
Cash flow metrics are robust, with strong free cash flow generation in 2025, reflecting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, emphasizing operational cash generation relative to accounting profit. However, the free cash flow growth rate has varied, indicating some inconsistency in cash flow performance.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.65B4.72B4.75B4.59B4.32B
Gross Profit1.81B2.02B2.24B2.12B2.04B
EBITDA849.80M656.20M896.70M863.60M857.30M
Net Income127.50M-15.90M87.10M636.40M78.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.66B3.81B4.41B3.83B8.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments171.40M496.50M791.40M787.70M1.44B
Total Debt1.35B1.63B2.07B1.41B3.52B
Total Liabilities2.95B3.17B3.66B2.95B7.14B
Stockholders Equity696.70M633.30M740.20M876.60M1.18B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow597.80M324.00M402.30M-184.80M785.80M
Operating Cash Flow754.20M543.30M580.20M66.80M1.21B
Investing Cash Flow-150.90M-10.20M73.00M2.08B-303.00M
Financing Cash Flow-641.50M-776.30M-640.90M-2.89B-326.90M

Firstgroup Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price220.00
Price Trends
50DMA
201.92
Positive
100DMA
181.56
Positive
200DMA
164.87
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
5.77
Positive
RSI
57.70
Neutral
STOCH
42.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 220 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 222.14, above the 50-day MA of 201.92, and above the 200-day MA of 164.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FGP.

Firstgroup Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£442.42M11.1735.97%1.82%22.39%179.53%
GBZIG
75
Outperform
£763.57M9.497.58%10.41%7.08%-28.02%
GBSRP
75
Outperform
£2.15B50.894.71%1.95%-0.68%-78.93%
GBFGP
71
Outperform
£1.23B10.3118.47%4.36%7.45%
65
Neutral
$10.85B15.475.22%1.89%3.09%-26.84%
60
Neutral
£83.45M29.241.63%7.18%-28.05%
GBMCG
51
Neutral
£175.53M-135.03%8.30%-346.39%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:FGP
Firstgroup
220.00
55.22
33.51%
GB:GFRD
Galliford Try
450.00
160.33
55.35%
GB:MPAC
Mpac Group PLC
277.50
-224.50
-44.72%
GB:MCG
Mobico Group
29.00
-25.95
-47.22%
GB:ZIG
ZIGUP plc
338.00
-65.57
-16.25%
GB:SRP
Serco Group plc
212.20
30.98
17.10%

Firstgroup Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Announces SAYE Share Plan Options Grant
Positive
Jul 11, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced the grant of 6,105,523 options to 2,522 employees under its Save as You Earn (SAYE) share plan, which is an all-employee scheme. This initiative, commencing on 1 September 2025, allows employees to exercise their options from 1 September 2028, potentially enhancing employee engagement and retention. The announcement includes the grant of 824 options to Ant Green, a Group Employee Director, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning managerial interests with broader corporate goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback as Part of Capital Optimization Strategy
Positive
Jul 11, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback transaction, acquiring 606,131 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 221.85 pence per share. This move is part of FirstGroup’s ongoing share buyback programme, which aims to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value. Following this purchase, FirstGroup holds a significant number of shares in treasury, with the option to cancel them in the future, thereby impacting the total number of voting rights available to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback Program
Neutral
Jul 10, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 654,683 ordinary shares at an average price of 224.09 pence per share. This move is part of their strategy to manage capital and potentially enhance shareholder value, with the purchased shares held in treasury and possibly subject to cancellation in the future. The transaction impacts the total number of voting rights, which now stands at 578,580,726, excluding treasury shares, influencing shareholder calculations under the FCA’s rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback, Acquires 68,645 Shares
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback transaction, purchasing 68,645 ordinary shares at an average price of 229.83 pence per share. This move is part of its ongoing share buyback programme announced in June 2025, and the purchased shares will be held in treasury, potentially impacting the company’s share capital structure and shareholder voting rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Update
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced its total voting rights and capital as of June 30, 2025, in accordance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. The company has a total of 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 168,938,340 held in treasury, resulting in 581,756,675 voting rights available. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements to FirstGroup and the FCA regarding their voting rights percentage.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BlackRock Increases Stake in FirstGroup to 5.71%
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025

FirstGroup PLC has announced a change in the breakdown of its voting rights, with BlackRock, Inc. increasing its stake to 5.71% as of June 25, 2025. This adjustment in holdings could influence FirstGroup’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning, potentially affecting stakeholders and future company operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Publishes 2025 Annual Financial Report
Neutral
Jun 26, 2025

FirstGroup plc has submitted its 2025 Annual Report and Financial Statements, along with the Notice of the 2025 Annual General Meeting, to the Financial Conduct Authority’s National Storage Mechanism. These documents, which include significant events from the past year and their financial impacts, are accessible on the company’s website, reflecting FirstGroup’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback Program
Neutral
Jun 26, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 576,214 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 229.55 pence per share. This transaction, conducted through RBC Europe Limited, results in FirstGroup holding 168,512,138 shares in treasury, with the total number of voting rights in the company now standing at 582,182,877. The move is part of FirstGroup’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback Program
Neutral
Jun 24, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 431,541 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 224.95 pence per share. This transaction, conducted through RBC Europe Limited, is part of a previously announced buyback initiative. Following this purchase, FirstGroup holds 167,505,791 shares in treasury, with a total of 583,189,224 shares in issue excluding treasury shares. The company may cancel these treasury shares in the future, impacting the total voting rights available to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback to Optimize Capital Structure
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback transaction, purchasing 472,318 ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 220.66 pence per share, as part of its ongoing share buyback programme. This move is intended to manage the company’s capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, with the purchased shares being held in treasury, which could influence voting rights and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback as Part of Capital Management Strategy
Positive
Jun 19, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback transaction, purchasing 385,418 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 223.97 pence per share. This move is part of the company’s ongoing share buyback programme, which aims to manage its capital structure effectively. Following this transaction, FirstGroup holds 166,109,932 shares in treasury, with a total of 584,585,083 shares in issue excluding treasury shares. This transaction may impact the company’s market positioning by potentially increasing shareholder value and optimizing its capital allocation strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Other
FirstGroup CFO and Wife Sell Significant Shares
Neutral
Jun 13, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Chief Finance Officer, and his wife, Nicole Mangold, sold a significant number of shares, totaling 1,000,000 shares, on the London Stock Exchange. Despite the sale, they still hold a substantial shareholding, representing over 540% of Ryan’s annual salary, indicating a strong financial position relative to the company’s remuneration policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Grants Executive Share Awards to Align Leadership with Shareholder Interests
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced the grant of conditional share awards to its Chief Executive Officer, Graham Sutherland, and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, under the Executive Annual Bonus Plan and Long-Term Incentive Plan. These awards, which are set to vest on the third anniversary of the grant date, aim to align the interests of the executives with those of the shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s long-term strategic goals and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Other
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 12, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, purchased 72 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The shares were acquired at a price of £2.0826 each on the London Stock Exchange, highlighting the executive’s confidence in the company’s future performance and aligning his interests with those of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Announces Board Restructuring Amid Industry Changes
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced a change in its board structure as Ant Green, the Employee Director, will not seek re-election at the upcoming AGM. In response to significant changes in the UK bus and rail industries, the company will replace the Employee Director position with a designated Non-executive Director, Myrtle Dawes, to ensure employee perspectives are represented in board discussions. This strategic move is part of FirstGroup’s restructuring efforts to better align with industry shifts and enhance stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Launches £50 Million Share Buyback Programme
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced a £50 million share buyback programme aimed at reducing its issued share capital. The programme, divided into two tranches of £25 million each, will be executed by RBC Europe Limited and Panmure Liberum Limited. This strategic move is expected to enhance shareholder value by decreasing the number of shares in circulation, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsStock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
FirstGroup Reports Robust FY 2025 Results with Strategic Investments
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

FirstGroup plc reported strong financial results for FY 2025, with increased revenue and operating profit driven by its bus and rail divisions. The company announced significant investments in growth and decarbonization, including the acquisition of RATP London and new track access rights, positioning itself well for future industry transitions. Shareholder returns were enhanced through buyback programs and dividends, while the company maintained a strong balance sheet and cash conversion.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Announces New London to Stirling Rail Service
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced a new open access rail service from London to Stirling, set to begin in mid-2026 under the Lumo brand. This service will enhance connectivity between London and central and southern Scotland, offering new direct routes to several stations. The company expects annual revenues of approximately £50 million with a low double-digit operating profit margin. This initiative is part of FirstGroup’s strategy to expand its open access rail services, which are privately funded and aim to drive economic growth by connecting underserved areas.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup CEO Appointed to HICL Infrastructure Board
Positive
May 20, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced that its Chief Executive Officer, Graham Sutherland, will take on an additional role as a Non-Executive Director at HICL Infrastructure PLC starting May 21, 2025. This move could potentially enhance FirstGroup’s strategic insights and industry connections, reflecting positively on its operational and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under SIP
Neutral
May 16, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, has purchased 81 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan (SIP) at a price of £1.8505 per share. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to align management interests with shareholder value, as per the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Apr 15, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, has purchased 97 ordinary shares of the company under the Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and demonstrates executive confidence in FirstGroup’s market position.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
FirstGroup Reports Strong Financial Performance and Strategic Growth
Positive
Apr 15, 2025

FirstGroup plc has reported strong financial performance for the fiscal year ending March 2025, with revenue growth in both its First Bus and First Rail divisions. The introduction of a new fare structure and the acquisition of RATP London have bolstered First Bus’s revenue, while First Rail has exceeded expectations due to higher variable fees and successful open access operations. The company’s financial guidance indicates adjusted operating profit and earnings per share will surpass previous expectations, and it maintains a strong balance sheet with lower net debt than anticipated.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 11, 2025