Firstgroup PLC (GB:FGP)
LSE:FGP
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Firstgroup
(LSE:FGP)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
189.00 p
▲(8.43% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/07/25
Firstgroup's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive corporate events. The stock's attractive valuation and positive earnings call further support its potential. However, bearish technical indicators suggest caution in the short term.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions highlights the company's ability to expand its market presence and enhance its competitive position.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions highlights the company's ability to expand its market presence and enhance its competitive position.
Read all positive factors
Firstgroup (FGP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£946.67M
Dividend Yield3.66%
Average Volume (3M)1.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth3.45%
EPS Growth43.01%
CountryUK
Employees30,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding562,530,800
10 Day Avg. Volume2,677,627
30 Day Avg. Volume1,602,067
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio3.69
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£245.00Price Target Upside40.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)£3.82B
Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom and the United States. The company operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 4,900 buse...
How the Company Makes Money
FirstGroup generates revenue primarily through the provision of public transportation services, which includes bus fares, rail ticket sales, and coach services. The company benefits from various revenue streams such as passenger fares, government ...
Firstgroup Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 18, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights significant revenue growth, strategic acquisitions, operational efficiencies, and sustainability initiatives. However, these are balanced by challenges in bus volume decline due to economic factors, inflationary pressures, and the costs associated with open access rail expansion. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain a strong financial position and propose a higher dividend.Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Group Adjusted Revenue
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Negative Updates
Impact of Economic Factors on Bus Volumes
Total bus volumes down by 4% due to economic factors and the transition to a GBP 3 fare cap.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Increase in Group Adjusted Revenue
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During FirstGroup's 2026 Half Year Results Presentation, they reported substantial growth despite economic challenges, with group adjusted revenue increasing by 30% to GBP 834 million, largely due to the acquisition of First Bus London. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 16% to 9.9p, supported by the repurchase of approximately 22 million shares. The Board proposed an interim dividend of 2.2p per share, a 29% increase from the previous year. First Bus achieved a 24% reduction in lost mileage to 1.3% and improved its Net Promoter Score to plus 15. FirstGroup's adjusted operating profit reached GBP 103.6 million, up 2.8%, and adjusted earnings grew by 7.1% to GBP 55.5 million. The company maintained a strong balance sheet, with an adjusted net debt of GBP 207.6 million and a debt cover ratio of 0.95x. Looking ahead, the group expects modest growth in adjusted EPS for the full year 2026 and aims to maintain this level in 2027, with a focus on U.K. growth and diversification strategies.Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.02B | 4.65B | 4.75B | 4.59B | 4.64B | 7.13B |
| Gross Profit | 138.30M | 1.81B | 2.24B | 2.12B | 1.80B | 1.92B |
| EBITDA | 854.90M | 849.80M | 896.70M | 863.60M | 398.90M | 384.60M |
| Net Income | 127.20M | 127.50M | 87.10M | 636.40M | -327.20M | -66.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.36B | 3.66B | 4.41B | 3.83B | 8.44B | 5.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 421.00M | 171.40M | 791.40M | 787.70M | 968.90M | 692.90M |
| Total Debt | 1.27B | 1.35B | 2.99B | 1.41B | 4.28B | 1.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.72B | 2.95B | 3.66B | 2.95B | 7.27B | 4.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 622.70M | 696.70M | 740.20M | 876.60M | 1.21B | 1.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 432.00M | 597.80M | 402.30M | -184.80M | 628.80M | 142.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 643.80M | 754.20M | 580.20M | 66.80M | 959.80M | 563.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -214.70M | -150.90M | 73.00M | 2.08B | -306.10M | -366.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -470.80M | -641.50M | -640.90M | -2.89B | -481.00M | -48.30M |
Firstgroup Technical Analysis
Neutral
174.30
Price Trends
180.12
Negative
182.28
Negative
198.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.67
Negative
50.25
Neutral
68.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 174.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 171.21, below the 50-day MA of 180.12, and below the 200-day MA of 198.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:FGP.
Firstgroup Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | £2.95B | 19.41 | 16.69% | 1.27% | 0.84% | -62.73% | |
64 Neutral | £946.67M | 5.69 | 19.28% | 3.66% | 3.45% | 43.01% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | £2.92B | 7.05 | 16.07% | 2.37% | 8.56% | 10.47% | |
61 Neutral | £1.03B | 1.06 | 41.72% | ― | 8.26% | -20.45% | |
45 Neutral | £126.10M | -0.48 | 160.47% | ― | -4.74% | -610.71% | |
42 Neutral | £83.21M | -6.24 | -5.70% | 0.90% | 15.95% | -136.18% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GB:FGP
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20.29
13.17%
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Firstgroup Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Ryan Mangold Buys Shares Under Company Incentive Plan
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
FirstGroup plc disclosed that Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer Ryan Mangold acquired 79 ordinary shares in the company through its Share Incentive Plan, with the partnership shares purchased on 10 February 2026 at £1.8979 each. ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Updates Total Voting Rights to 562.5 Million Shares
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
FirstGroup plc has reported that, as of 31 January 2026, its issued share capital comprises 570,695,015 ordinary shares of 5 pence each, of which 8,164,166 are held in treasury, leaving 562,530,849 shares carrying voting rights. The company has co...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Increases Holding Through Share Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
FirstGroup plc has disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 79 ordinary shares in the company through its Share Incentive Plan, with the purchase executed on 12 January 2026 at a price of £1.89...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Increases Holding Through Share Incentive Plan Dividend Reinvestment
Neutral
Jan 13, 2026
FirstGroup plc disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 113 ordinary shares in the company at £1.8947 per share through the reinvestment of dividend income under the firm’s Share Incentiv...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025
FirstGroup plc announced a share purchase by Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, involving the acquisition of 81 ordinary shares at £1.8458 each, ...
Business Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Secures London Overground Rail Contract as Preferred Operator
Positive
Dec 10, 2025
FirstGroup has been selected as the preferred operator for the London Overground rail network contract, starting from May 2026, with an initial eight-year term and an option for a two-year extension. The contract, valued at approximately £3 b...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CEO Increases Stake with Significant Share Purchase
Positive
Nov 19, 2025
FirstGroup plc announced that its CEO, Graham Sutherland, purchased 50,000 shares of the company at a price of 178.6 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction, disclosed in compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, signifie...
Other
FirstGroup Chair Purchases Significant Shareholding
Positive
Nov 19, 2025
FirstGroup plc announced that Lena Wilson, the Director and Chair of the Board, has purchased 11,000 shares at 178.5 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction highlights a significant investment by a key member of the company&...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
FirstGroup Reports Strong H1 2026 Performance and Strategic Growth Plans
Positive
Nov 18, 2025
FirstGroup plc reports a positive earnings trajectory for the first half of 2026, with a 30% increase in adjusted revenue to £833.6 million, driven by growth in bus revenues and First Rail services. The company has made significant progress i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.