Firstgroup (FGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £998.27M
• Dividend Yield: 3.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 3.45%
• EPS Growth: 43.01%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 562,530,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,677,627
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,602,067
• PEG Ratio: 0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £245.00
• Price Target Upside: 33.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £4.45B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: 189.00p ▲(2.83% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/07/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/07/25

Firstgroup's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive corporate events. The stock's attractive valuation and positive earnings call further support its potential. However, bearish technical indicators suggest caution in the short term.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions highlights the company's ability to expand its market presence and enhance its competitive position.

Operational Efficiency

The company's focus on operational efficiency and cost savings through electrification and overhead reductions supports long-term profitability and sustainability.

Sustainability Initiatives

Progress in fleet electrification positions the company as a leader in sustainable transport, aligning with regulatory trends and consumer preferences for eco-friendly solutions.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Inflationary Pressures

Inflationary pressures, especially in wages, can erode profit margins, impacting the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing and profitability.

Bus Volume Decline

Declining bus volumes indicate challenges in maintaining ridership amid economic pressures, potentially affecting revenue stability in the long term.

Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom and the United States. The company operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 4,900 buses in the United Kingdom. The First Rail segment operates a passenger rail network that provides long-distance, commuter, regional, and sleeper services through a portfolio of Great Western Railway, South Western Railway, TransPennine Express, and Avanti West Coast franchises; passenger rail services; and hull trains and Lumos. FirstGroup plc was founded in 1986 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

FirstGroup generates revenue primarily through the provision of public transportation services, which includes bus fares, rail ticket sales, and coach services. The company benefits from various revenue streams such as passenger fares, government subsidies, and contracts for operating public transport services. Key revenue streams include ticket sales from First Bus operations, which serve local commuters, and revenue from First Rail through franchise agreements with the UK government. Additionally, Greyhound contributes significantly to FirstGroup's earnings through intercity bus services in North America. The company often enters into partnerships with local governments and transit authorities, which can include service contracts and subsidies that bolster its revenue. Other factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency improvements and strategic investments in technology to enhance customer experience and reduce operational costs.

Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Firstgroup's financial performance is solid with improved profitability and operational efficiency in 2025. Despite high leverage, the company maintains strong cash flow, supporting financial stability. Continued focus on revenue growth and debt reduction could enhance financial health.

Income Statement

Firstgroup's revenue has shown fluctuations with a recent decline from 2024 to 2025. Despite this, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin improved in 2025, turning positive after a loss in 2024, which demonstrates a recovery in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, highlighting operational efficiency gains.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity improved in 2025, suggesting better profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing compared to assets, though it has decreased over time.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are robust, with strong free cash flow generation in 2025, reflecting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, emphasizing operational cash generation relative to accounting profit. However, the free cash flow growth rate has varied, indicating some inconsistency in cash flow performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2021	Mar 2019	Mar 2019
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.02B	4.65B	4.75B	4.59B	4.64B	7.13B
Gross Profit	138.30M	1.81B	2.24B	2.12B	1.80B	1.92B
EBITDA	854.90M	849.80M	896.70M	863.60M	398.90M	384.60M
Net Income	127.20M	127.50M	87.10M	636.40M	-327.20M	-66.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.36B	3.66B	4.41B	3.83B	8.44B	5.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	421.00M	171.40M	791.40M	787.70M	968.90M	692.90M
Total Debt	1.27B	1.35B	2.99B	1.41B	4.28B	1.65B
Total Liabilities	2.72B	2.95B	3.66B	2.95B	7.27B	4.43B
Stockholders Equity	622.70M	696.70M	740.20M	876.60M	1.21B	1.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	432.00M	597.80M	402.30M	-184.80M	628.80M	142.40M
Operating Cash Flow	643.80M	754.20M	580.20M	66.80M	959.80M	563.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-214.70M	-150.90M	73.00M	2.08B	-306.10M	-366.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-470.80M	-641.50M	-640.90M	-2.89B	-481.00M	-48.30M

Firstgroup Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 183.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 183.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 189.58, below the 50-day MA of 188.61, and below the 200-day MA of 202.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:FGP.

Firstgroup Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EZJ	78 Outperform	£3.51B	7.05	15.74%	2.37%	8.56%	10.47%
SRP	73 Outperform	£2.98B	63.14	5.21%	1.27%	0.84%	-62.73%
WIZZ	70 Outperform	£1.26B	6.34	41.72%	―	8.26%	-20.45%
FGP	64 Neutral	£998.27M	8.32	19.57%	3.66%	3.45%	43.01%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MCG	52 Neutral	£191.89M	-0.61	-184.46%	―	-4.74%	-610.71%
AVAP	42 Neutral	£89.75M	-10.06	-3.12%	0.90%	15.95%	-136.18%

Firstgroup Corporate Events

FirstGroup CFO Ryan Mangold Buys Shares Under Company Incentive Plan

FirstGroup plc disclosed that Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer Ryan Mangold acquired 79 ordinary shares in the company through its Share Incentive Plan, with the partnership shares purchased on 10 February 2026 at £1.8979 each. The transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange and notified under the Market Abuse Regulation, underscores ongoing executive participation in the group’s equity-based incentives, offering investors additional transparency over management’s alignment with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

FirstGroup Updates Total Voting Rights to 562.5 Million Shares

FirstGroup plc has reported that, as of 31 January 2026, its issued share capital comprises 570,695,015 ordinary shares of 5 pence each, of which 8,164,166 are held in treasury, leaving 562,530,849 shares carrying voting rights. The company has confirmed this total voting rights figure as the reference denominator for shareholders when assessing whether they must notify FirstGroup or the UK regulator of changes in their ownership stakes under relevant transparency rules, underscoring the group’s ongoing compliance with FCA disclosure requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

FirstGroup CFO Increases Holding Through Share Incentive Plan

FirstGroup plc has disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 79 ordinary shares in the company through its Share Incentive Plan, with the purchase executed on 12 January 2026 at a price of £1.8935 per share on the London Stock Exchange. The transaction, made under the company’s employee share scheme and reported in line with market abuse regulations, underscores ongoing alignment of senior management’s interests with those of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

FirstGroup CFO Increases Holding Through Share Incentive Plan Dividend Reinvestment

FirstGroup plc disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 113 ordinary shares in the company at £1.8947 per share through the reinvestment of dividend income under the firm’s Share Incentive Plan. The transaction, conducted on 7 January 2026 and notified on 9 January 2026, is a routine disclosure under UK Market Abuse Regulation and reflects continued executive participation in the company’s equity-based remuneration arrangements, with limited direct impact on the group’s operations but reinforcing governance transparency for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Buy with a £250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan

FirstGroup plc announced a share purchase by Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, involving the acquisition of 81 ordinary shares at £1.8458 each, was conducted on the London Stock Exchange and aligns with regulatory requirements, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £189.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

FirstGroup Secures London Overground Rail Contract as Preferred Operator

FirstGroup has been selected as the preferred operator for the London Overground rail network contract, starting from May 2026, with an initial eight-year term and an option for a two-year extension. The contract, valued at approximately £3 billion, involves First Rail London Limited managing train services and stations, while Transport for London retains revenue risk. This partnership aims to enhance service levels, improve customer experience, and advance sustainability initiatives, aligning with TfL’s Vision Zero and emission reduction goals. The announcement marks a strategic move for FirstGroup to diversify and expand its portfolio, strengthening its position in the public transport sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £189.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

FirstGroup CEO Increases Stake with Significant Share Purchase

FirstGroup plc announced that its CEO, Graham Sutherland, purchased 50,000 shares of the company at a price of 178.6 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction, disclosed in compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, signifies a notable investment by the CEO, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and stability, which could impact stakeholder perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

FirstGroup Chair Purchases Significant Shareholding

FirstGroup plc announced that Lena Wilson, the Director and Chair of the Board, has purchased 11,000 shares at 178.5 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction highlights a significant investment by a key member of the company’s leadership, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.

FirstGroup Reports Strong H1 2026 Performance and Strategic Growth Plans

FirstGroup plc reports a positive earnings trajectory for the first half of 2026, with a 30% increase in adjusted revenue to £833.6 million, driven by growth in bus revenues and First Rail services. The company has made significant progress in business restructuring, achieving £6 million in savings towards a £15 million target, and anticipates modest growth in adjusted earnings per share for the full year. The completion of a £50 million buyback program and a focus on fleet electrification highlight FirstGroup’s commitment to shareholder returns and sustainable operations. The company is well-positioned for future growth, with plans to expand open access rail services and explore strategic acquisitions in the UK.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FGP) stock is a Hold with a £218.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firstgroup stock, see the GB:FGP Stock Forecast page.