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Avation (GB:AVAP)
LSE:AVAP

Avation (AVAP) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:AVAP

Avation

(LSE:AVAP)

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Neutral 42 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
134.00p
▼(-3.25% Downside)
Avation's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability. Technical indicators also suggest bearish momentum. While recent corporate events are positive, they do not offset the fundamental financial concerns.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Positive revenue growth indicates that Avation is expanding its market presence and improving its top-line performance, which is crucial for long-term sustainability.
Operational Efficiency
High EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect effective cost management and operational efficiency, which can support profitability as revenue grows.
Cash Management
Positive cash flow from operations suggests that Avation is able to generate cash efficiently, which is critical for maintaining liquidity and funding operations.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting Avation's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Profitability
Negative profitability indicates challenges in converting revenue into profit, which can hinder long-term financial health and shareholder returns.
Decline in Free Cash Flow
A decline in free cash flow growth can strain Avation's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, impacting future financial stability.

Avation (AVAP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Avation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAvation PLC, together with its subsidiaries, leases commercial passenger aircraft to airlines worldwide. As of June 30, 2021, the company owned and managed a fleet of 44 aircraft. It is also involved in the financing business. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Singapore.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvation generates revenue primarily through the leasing of its aircraft to airlines. The company enters into long-term lease agreements, which provide a steady stream of rental income. Additionally, Avation benefits from the sale of aircraft at the end of their lease terms, capitalizing on any appreciation in asset value. Key revenue streams include fixed lease payments and potential maintenance reserves collected from lessees. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with airlines and manufacturers, enhancing its operational capabilities and expanding its customer base. Factors contributing to its earnings include the demand for air travel, fleet utilization rates, and effective asset management strategies.

Avation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Avation's financial statements reflect challenges with profitability and high leverage. Despite operational efficiency and potential revenue recovery, high debt levels and negative net income are significant concerns.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Avation's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin is negative, reflecting a net loss, which is a significant concern. Revenue growth is positive, suggesting potential recovery, but the volatility in gross profit margin over the years indicates instability in cost management.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage, which poses a financial risk. The return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns for its shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively low, further highlighting the reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, which is concerning. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that the company is generating cash from its operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable, suggesting efficient cash management despite the net losses.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue112.55M89.48M92.69M109.84M110.79M
Gross Profit112.55M-3.83M-14.31M3.05M116.67M
EBITDA98.94M29.70M20.48M40.80M79.44M
Net Income-7.72M19.73M12.19M17.13M-84.89M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.10B1.14B1.18B1.22B1.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments58.26M34.31M37.28M122.89M122.47M
Total Debt652.34M675.50M755.98M828.13M947.64M
Total Liabilities858.09M885.92M937.96M989.93M1.13B
Stockholders Equity243.84M256.39M243.93M227.09M156.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow67.81M81.56M48.38M54.46M62.18M
Operating Cash Flow91.50M81.57M48.39M54.48M62.28M
Investing Cash Flow-24.73M13.21M38.52M65.62M20.08M
Financing Cash Flow-42.23M-96.03M-97.36M-109.90M-92.59M

Avation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price138.50
Price Trends
50DMA
144.80
Negative
100DMA
152.58
Negative
200DMA
151.52
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.62
Negative
RSI
42.66
Neutral
STOCH
20.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:AVAP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 138.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 140.18, below the 50-day MA of 144.80, and below the 200-day MA of 151.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:AVAP.

Avation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£139.70M2.7939.13%12.99%1.42%13.67%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
55
Neutral
8.048.01%25.98%-1.94%
42
Neutral
£85.97M-17.47-3.12%0.90%15.95%-136.18%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:AVAP
Avation
138.50
-14.30
-9.36%
GB:AA4
Amedeo Air Four Plus
66.00
23.77
56.29%
GB:DNA3
Doric Nimrod Air Three
63.50
9.20
16.94%

Avation Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Avation PLC Announces Director Retirement and Succession Planning
Neutral
Nov 27, 2025

Avation PLC announced the retirement of Dr. Stephen Fisher, a Non-Executive Director, after more than nine years of service, aligning with UK Corporate Governance Code guidelines. This transition marks a planned succession for continued strong governance, reflecting Avation’s commitment to maintaining robust oversight.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Grants Share Warrants to Directors and Employees
Neutral
Nov 26, 2025

Avation PLC has announced the grant of 921,000 share warrants to its directors and employees as part of its long-term incentive plan, following shareholder approval at the last annual general meeting. This move, which includes a three-year vesting period and an exercise price of 140 pence per share, aims to align the interests of the company’s leadership and staff with its growth objectives, potentially impacting the company’s capital structure and stakeholder interests.

Shareholder MeetingsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Avation PLC Reports Positive Outlook and Financial Stability at AGM
Positive
Nov 26, 2025

Avation PLC, a commercial passenger aircraft leasing company, reported a positive outlook during its Annual General Meeting in Singapore. The company highlighted stable market values for new commercial aircraft and increased lease rates, with significant revenue generated from the Asia Pacific region. Avation’s fleet consists of 32 aircraft leased to 15 airlines across 14 countries, with plans to expand by adding new ATR72-600 aircraft. Financially, Avation has improved its capital structure by refinancing unsecured notes and reducing secured bank loans, leading to an increased dividend. The company remains optimistic about future growth, supported by strong demand for air travel and favorable industry dynamics.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avation PLC Releases Annual Report for 2025
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025

Avation PLC has submitted its annual report for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, to the National Storage Mechanism, making it available for public inspection. This move underscores Avation’s commitment to transparency and provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance.

Other
Avation PLC Announces Share Transfer Following Warrant Exercise
Neutral
Nov 21, 2025

Avation PLC announced the transfer of 842,997 ordinary shares from treasury to satisfy the exercise of all outstanding 2022 series staff warrants. This transaction affects the company’s share structure, with a total of 66,636,738 ordinary shares now in issue and 62,297,739 voting rights. Directors Robert Jeffries Chatfield, Roderick Douglas Mahoney, and Mark Shelton received shares as part of this transaction, impacting their respective holdings and voting rights within the company.

Shareholder Meetings
Avation PLC Announces 2025 AGM with Enhanced Accessibility for Shareholders
Neutral
Nov 21, 2025

Avation PLC has announced its 2025 annual general meeting (AGM) scheduled for November 26, 2025, in Singapore, with a simultaneous video conference in London. Shareholders can participate online via the LSEG SparkLive platform, submit proxy votes, and pre-submit questions for the Board, enhancing shareholder engagement and accessibility.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Completes Redemption of 2026 Senior Notes
Positive
Nov 11, 2025

Avation PLC has successfully redeemed all outstanding senior notes due 2026, following the issuance of new US$300 million senior notes due 2031 under its US$1 billion global medium term note programme. This move highlights Avation’s ongoing success as a bond issuer in the high yield markets, reinforcing its financial strategy and strengthening its market position.

Private Placements and Financing
Avation PLC’s Credit Rating Upgraded by S&P
Positive
Nov 11, 2025

Avation PLC, a commercial passenger aircraft leasing company, has announced that S&P has assigned a ‘B’ long-term issue rating to its US$300 million senior unsecured notes due 2031. Additionally, S&P has upgraded Avation’s long-term issuer credit rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘, reflecting improved refinancing and liquidity conditions following the redemption of US$298 million of senior unsecured notes due 2026.

Business Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Announces Orderly Exercise Process for Listed Warrants
Neutral
Nov 7, 2025

Avation PLC has announced a structured process for the orderly exercise of its listed warrants, which will lead to the allotment and issue of new ordinary shares. This process is set to occur on a quarterly basis over the next year, with specific dates outlined for each step. The final exercise date for the warrants is October 31, 2026, after which any unexercised warrants will lapse. This orderly process aims to benefit both warrant holders and shareholders by ensuring a smooth transition and integration of new shares into the market.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Updates on Notes Repurchase Policy
Neutral
Nov 7, 2025

Avation PLC has announced its intention to continue considering the repurchase of newly issued US$300 million Senior 8.5% Notes due 2031, part of its US$1 billion global medium-term note program. The company plans to provide quarterly updates on repurchases and relevant transactions, with the first update expected in March 2026, potentially impacting its financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC’s Credit Rating Affirmed by Fitch
Positive
Nov 5, 2025

Avation PLC announced that Fitch Ratings has affirmed its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’ with a Stable Outlook. Additionally, a final long-term debt rating of ‘B’/’RR4’ was assigned to the senior unsecured bond issued by Avation Group under its USD1 billion global medium-term note programme. This affirmation and rating assignment reflect Avation’s stable financial position and its strategic role in the aircraft leasing industry.

Shareholder Meetings
Avation PLC Announces Annual General Meeting
Positive
Nov 4, 2025

Avation PLC has announced its upcoming annual general meeting scheduled for November 26, 2025, in Singapore. The meeting will provide shareholders with the opportunity to engage with the company, and relevant documents are available on Avation’s website. This announcement underscores Avation’s commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, potentially impacting investor relations positively.

Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avation PLC Announces Share Repurchase and Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Oct 30, 2025

Avation PLC has repurchased 490,000 of its ordinary shares at a price of 154.85 pence per share, which will be held in treasury. This transaction adjusts the total number of voting rights in the company to 64,431,738, a figure that shareholders can use for determining their notification requirements under the FCA’s rules.

Business Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Secures Lease Extension with EVA Air
Positive
Oct 29, 2025

Avation PLC has announced a four-year lease extension with EVA Air for its A330-300 widebody aircraft, extending the lease until November 2031. This extension is significant as it ensures EVA Air’s passenger capacity for six years and maintains Avation’s relationship with a top-rated airline, enhancing its lease term and contracted revenue.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Prices US$300 Million in Senior Unsecured Notes to Optimize Capital Structure
Positive
Oct 23, 2025

Avation PLC has successfully priced US$300 million in senior unsecured notes due in 2031, with an 8.5% coupon, as part of its US$1 billion global medium-term note program. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and issuance expenses, thereby optimizing Avation’s capital structure and mitigating 2026 bond expiry risk. This move reflects Avation’s strategy to stabilize its financial position and support future growth, having significantly reduced its net debt to equity ratio over the past five years.

Dividends
Avation PLC Announces Interim Dividend Currency Exchange Rate
Positive
Oct 22, 2025

Avation PLC has announced the currency exchange rate for its interim dividend payment, with shareholders receiving either 1.0 US cent per share or 0.749732 pence per share, depending on their currency election. The dividend will be distributed on 30 October 2025 to shareholders recorded by 17 October 2025, reflecting the company’s stable operations and commitment to shareholder returns.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Launches $1 Billion GMTN Programme
Positive
Oct 21, 2025

Avation PLC has announced the establishment of a new US$1 billion Global Medium Term Note Programme, with an initial issuance of $300 million in senior notes due 2031. This move is aimed at refinancing existing senior notes due in 2026 and covering related transaction fees, potentially strengthening Avation’s financial position and offering flexibility in managing its leasing operations.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Launches US$1 Billion Global Note Programme
Positive
Oct 21, 2025

Avation PLC has established a new US$1 billion global medium-term note programme through its subsidiary, Avation Group (S) Pte. Ltd., with HSBC and Wells Fargo Securities as initial dealers. This initiative aims to enhance Avation’s financial flexibility by allowing the issuance of notes in various currencies and interest rates, potentially strengthening its market position in the aircraft leasing industry.

Dividends
Avation PLC Announces Dividend Currency Options for Shareholders
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Avation PLC announced that shareholders will receive dividends in pounds sterling by default unless they elect to receive them in US dollars by submitting a currency election form by 20 October 2025. This announcement ensures clarity in dividend distribution and offers flexibility to shareholders, potentially enhancing shareholder satisfaction and engagement.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Plans Investor Meetings for Potential Note Offering
Neutral
Oct 6, 2025

Avation PLC has appointed Wells Fargo Securities and HSBC to organize global fixed income investor meetings starting October 8, 2025. The company is considering an offering of US$300-400 million in senior unsecured notes, subject to market conditions, which could impact its financial strategy and market presence.

Financial Disclosures
Avation PLC Releases 2025 Audited Financial Statements
Positive
Oct 2, 2025

Avation PLC has released its audited financial statements for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025. The report, available on the company’s website, reflects Avation’s continued operations in the aircraft leasing industry, with a fully leased and utilized fleet, indicating stable demand and operational efficiency.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Avation PLC Reports Revenue Growth Amidst Strategic Fleet Optimizations
Neutral
Oct 2, 2025

Avation PLC reported a 19.2% increase in revenue to $110.1 million for the year ended 30 June 2025, alongside a 20.3% rise in EBITDA to $107.1 million. Despite these gains, the company recorded a loss after tax of $7.7 million due to reduced operating profit and other financial factors. The company made significant strides in fleet management, acquiring an Airbus A320-200 and selling two ATR 72-600 aircraft, while also extending leases and securing new customers. Avation reduced its net indebtedness by 7.3% and improved its net debt to total assets ratio to 54.8%. The company is focused on refinancing its outstanding unsecured notes and plans strategic growth through its order book of ATR 72-600 aircraft.

Financial Disclosures
Avation PLC to Announce FY2025 Results and Host Investor Call
Neutral
Sep 26, 2025

Avation PLC announced it will release its financial results for the year ending June 30, 2025, on October 2, 2025. The company has scheduled an investor update call on the same day to discuss these results, inviting both current and potential shareholders and stakeholders to participate. This announcement is significant as it provides insights into Avation’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

Delistings and Listing Changes
Avation PLC Announces Admission of New Ordinary Shares
Neutral
Sep 12, 2025

Avation PLC has announced the admission of 47,981 new ordinary shares to the London Stock Exchange’s main market, effective from 12 September 2025. This move increases the total number of ordinary shares in issue to 66,636,738, with 66,421,738 total voting rights, potentially impacting shareholder voting dynamics.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avation PLC Completes Profitable Sale of Boeing 777 Aircraft
Positive
Sep 9, 2025

Avation PLC has completed the sale of a Boeing B777-300ER aircraft leased to Philippine Airlines, capitalizing on favorable market conditions to generate a significant profit above book value. The sale aligns with Avation’s strategy to reduce debt and re-invest in narrowbody aircraft, enhancing its portfolio management and risk reduction efforts.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025