Mobico Group (GB:MCG)
LSE:MCG
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Mobico Group
(LSE:MCG)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
18.00 p
▼(-2.17% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/28/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial health (negative equity, elevated leverage, and inconsistent free cash flow) and a clearly bearish technical setup (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides partial offset via credible 2026 profit guidance, cost-savings targets, and improved H2 operational performance, but ongoing provisions and contract/legal uncertainties keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Alsa operating strength
Alsa's scale and margin improvement provide a durable earnings anchor for the group. Strong passenger growth (640m, +10%) and higher operating profit show resilient demand and operational leverage in Spain, improving predictability of cashflows and reducing reliance on weaker geographies over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet / negative equity
Negative equity and elevated debt materially constrain financial flexibility. Until equity is rebuilt and debt reduced, the group faces higher refinancing and covenant sensitivity, limiting strategic optionality and increasing insolvency risk in downside scenarios over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Alsa operating strength
Alsa's scale and margin improvement provide a durable earnings anchor for the group. Strong passenger growth (640m, +10%) and higher operating profit show resilient demand and operational leverage in Spain, improving predictability of cashflows and reducing reliance on weaker geographies over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Mobico Group (MCG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£112.30M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth-4.74%
EPS Growth-610.71%
CountryUK
Employees51,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding614,086,360
10 Day Avg. Volume4,176,117
30 Day Avg. Volume5,481,091
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.05
P/FCF Ratio-2.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£43.33Price Target Upside135.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)£2.89B
Mobico Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mobico Group Plc engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, France, and Portugal. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America seg...
How the Company Makes Money
Mobico Group makes money primarily by operating passenger transport services and earning revenue from a mix of passenger fares and contracted payments. A key revenue stream is farebox income collected from customers using its bus and coach network...
Mobico Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a clear operational turnaround in H2 and strong performance from Alsa (record revenue, passengers and margins), contract wins (totaling >GBP 1bn) and explicit cash/liquidity improvements and cost‑saving targets. However, the results are tempered by sizeable adjusting charges and provisions (German onerous contracts, WMATA, Morocco), legacy legal/insurance liabilities and reporting complexity due to auditor transition. Management emphasized simplification, active derisking of contracts and disciplined capital allocation. Overall the positives around operational recovery, Alsa strength, cash/liquidity and a defined cost‑savings program balance the material one‑off losses and provisions, leaving the tone cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Revenue increased ~6.2% year‑on‑year to GBP 2.8 billion (2025), driven primarily by Alsa and WeDriveU growth.
Negative Updates
Significant Adjusting Items and Cash-Outflows
There were material adjusting items and cash outflows: cash outflow of c. GBP 118 million related to items excluded from adjusted results and GBP 35 million of restructuring/streamlining spend (cash impact GBP 29.8 million). Amortization of acquisition intangibles increased by GBP 2.8 million.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Revenue increased ~6.2% year‑on‑year to GBP 2.8 billion (2025), driven primarily by Alsa and WeDriveU growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management guided to an adjusted operating profit range of £195–210m for 2026, underpinned by a Simplify for Success cost program targeting £75m of savings in 2026 with a £100m pa run‑rate by year‑end, disciplined CapEx of c.£120m, and a focus on cash/deleveraging (net positive cash expected in 2026); key metrics supporting the outlook include FY25 revenue of c.£2.8bn (+6.2%), H2 operating profit of £138m (H1 £60m), Alsa at £1.5bn revenue (≈+12.8%) and 640m passengers (+10% Spanish demand), 25 new contracts worth £450m (conversion rate 28% v 23% prior year) with total new wins >£1bn including Qiddiya/Guadalajara, FY25 free cash flow £77.3m (or c.£76m ex‑school bus), a £286m cash inflow from the school‑bus sale, covenant gearing ~2.7x, nearly €900m of cash/undrawn facilities and c.94% of debt fixed; balance‑sheet provisions to note are a £52m WMATA provision (c.£47m remaining, ~£8m expected to be utilised in 2026) and a German rail onerous contract provision of £133m after £56m utilisation, and the group will update guidance if the German PTA agreements (expected by 30 June) materially change outcomes.Mobico Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.74B | 3.41B | 3.15B | 2.81B | 2.17B |
| Gross Profit | 124.10M | 1.10B | 1.49B | 1.09B | 935.30M |
| EBITDA | 316.80M | -250.70M | 235.20M | 82.00M | 215.20M |
| Net Income | -294.30M | -824.10M | -163.80M | -253.60M | -102.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.72B | 3.24B | 4.08B | 4.15B | 4.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 406.80M | 244.50M | 356.30M | 291.80M | 508.40M |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 1.47B | 1.56B | 1.49B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.93B | 3.02B | 3.01B | 2.76B | 2.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | -256.30M | 184.80M | 1.04B | 1.35B | 1.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -59.70M | 63.40M | 88.90M | 41.50M | -42.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 109.60M | 259.00M | 230.00M | 221.20M | 170.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 44.00M | -190.00M | -103.10M | -180.40M | -197.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -81.80M | -157.00M | -62.50M | -202.90M | -113.50M |
Mobico Group Technical Analysis
Negative
18.40
Price Trends
22.78
Negative
22.84
Negative
26.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.56
Positive
37.56
Neutral
22.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MCG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.08, below the 50-day MA of 22.78, and below the 200-day MA of 26.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MCG.
Mobico Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | £1.37B | 8.23 | 23.46% | 3.08% | -1.17% | 12.31% | |
71 Outperform | £916.17M | 15.43 | 33.12% | 1.01% | 24.42% | 103.25% | |
71 Outperform | £831.84M | 9.81 | 11.69% | 3.19% | 4.40% | 31.59% | |
64 Neutral | £930.92M | 5.69 | 19.28% | 3.66% | 3.45% | 43.01% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | £487.27M | 5.91 | 13.04% | 3.18% | 6.55% | 18.44% | |
45 Neutral | £112.30M | -0.48 | 160.47% | ― | -4.74% | -610.71% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GB:MCG
Mobico Group
18.40
-34.55
-65.25%
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Mobico Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mobico Elevates Alsa Chief Paco Iglesias to Group CEO in Strategic Leadership Shift
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
Mobico Group has appointed Francisco “Paco” Iglesias as Group Chief Executive Officer, elevating him from his current role as Group Chief Operating Officer and long-serving CEO of its Alsa division. He will join the board and assume th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mobico lifts 2025 profit on Alsa strength as turnaround gains traction
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Mobico Group reported 2025 adjusted operating profit up 9% to £198m on revenue of £2.76bn, driven by another record year of double-digit growth at its Alsa division, which offset weaker trading in UK Coach and operational issues at U.S. ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mobico to Unveil 2025 Full-Year Results with Dual Investor Webcasts
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Mobico Group said it will publish unaudited results for the 12 months to 31 December 2025 on 26 February 2026, providing investors with the first detailed look at its most recent full-year trading performance. The update is expected to offer fresh...
Business Operations and Strategy
Mobico Resets German Rail Contracts in North Rhine-Westphalia to Cut Risk and Secure Growth
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
Mobico Group has reached an agreement in principle with five German Public Transport Authorities to realign contract terms for its rail operations in North Rhine-Westphalia and neighbouring areas, a move intended to materially reset and de-risk it...
Business Operations and Strategy
Mobico in Advanced Talks to Reshape German Rail Contracts for Long‑Term Sustainability
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
Mobico Group’s German rail subsidiary, National Express Rail GmbH, is in advanced talks to finalise a comprehensive agreement in principle with five German Public Transport Authorities to realign contract terms for rail services in North Rhi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.