Mobico Group (MCG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £141.97M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.48M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: -4.74%
• EPS Growth: -610.71%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 51,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 614,086,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,176,117
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,481,091
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £35.00
• Price Target Upside: 52.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: 24.00p ▲(4.35% Upside)

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, pressured margins, high leverage, and volatile free cash flow). Technicals are only modestly supportive with mixed momentum and a longer-term downtrend (below 100/200-day averages). Earnings-call commentary adds some offset via revenue growth and reaffirmed guidance, but is tempered by profit decline and elevated debt; valuation remains weak due to negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The 7% revenue growth indicates a positive trend in market demand and operational effectiveness, driven by strong performance in key divisions like ALSA.

ALSA Performance

ALSA's robust profit growth and increased passenger numbers in Spain highlight its competitive strength and potential for sustained profitability.

New Contracts and Opportunities

Securing large contracts in new markets like Saudi Arabia can diversify revenue streams and enhance long-term growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Profit Decline

The decline in operating profit underscores challenges in maintaining cost efficiency and profitability amidst operational issues.

High Debt Levels

Increased debt levels can strain financial flexibility, necessitating tighter control over capital expenditures and working capital.

Operational Challenges in WeDriveU

Operational difficulties in WeDriveU, particularly in paratransit contracts, highlight execution risks that could affect overall profitability.

Mobico Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mobico Group Plc engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, France, and Portugal. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles. The company also provides student transportation, urban bus, regional/long haul coach, rail, and charter and other services; transit and scheduled coach services; and private hire and commuter coach travel services. In addition, it operates alternative fuel technologies, such as propane, electric, and hydrogen; and offers shuttle services. The company has a fleet of approximately 28,000 vehicles. It provides its services to cities, businesses, and education providers, as well as direct to customers. The company was formerly known as National Express Group PLC and changed its name to Mobico Group Plc in June 2023. Mobico Group Plc was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Mobico Group generates revenue primarily through the operation of public transport services, including bus and coach services, which are funded by passenger fares, contracts with local authorities, and subsidies from government entities. Key revenue streams include ticket sales from individual passengers, long-term contracts with municipalities for public transport services, and partnerships with businesses for corporate transport solutions. Additionally, Mobico Group may earn revenue through ancillary services such as advertising on vehicles and at stations, as well as through digital platforms that facilitate ticket sales and customer engagement. Strategic partnerships with local governments and transport agencies play a significant role in securing contracts and funding, thereby contributing to the company's overall earnings.

Mobico Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements indicate ongoing strain: revenue has improved, but profitability remains weak with persistent net losses and negative/pressured margins (including negative EBITDA in the latest period). The balance sheet shows high leverage and declining equity metrics, and cash flow is improving in operations but free cash flow is volatile and weakened most recently.

Income Statement

Mobico Group has demonstrated a mixed performance in its income statement. The revenue growth rate has been positive over the recent years, indicating a recovery trajectory. However, the company consistently reports negative net income, leading to negative net profit margins. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerning, with EBITDA turning negative in the latest period. This reflects challenges in managing operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio that indicates significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio has decreased over time, showing declining shareholder equity relative to total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to the recurring net losses. These factors suggest financial stability concerns, although the company maintains a substantial asset base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates some positive movement with operating cash flow improving in recent years. However, free cash flow has been volatile, with a decline in the latest period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to persistent net losses. Overall, cash flow management appears challenging, impacting the company's ability to generate sustainable cash reserves.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.08B	3.41B	3.15B	2.81B	2.17B	1.96B
Gross Profit	151.70M	1.10B	1.49B	1.09B	935.30M	443.50M
EBITDA	-270.90M	-250.70M	235.20M	82.00M	215.20M	-88.80M
Net Income	-1.06B	-824.10M	-163.80M	-253.60M	-102.00M	-331.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.00B	3.24B	4.08B	4.15B	4.29B	4.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	197.80M	244.50M	356.30M	291.80M	508.40M	520.50M
Total Debt	1.48B	1.47B	1.56B	1.49B	1.60B	1.67B
Total Liabilities	3.07B	3.02B	3.01B	2.76B	2.84B	2.90B
Stockholders Equity	-110.50M	184.80M	1.04B	1.35B	1.43B	1.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.90M	63.40M	88.90M	41.50M	-42.00M	-334.70M
Operating Cash Flow	217.30M	259.00M	230.00M	221.20M	170.90M	-96.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-172.30M	-190.00M	-103.10M	-180.40M	-197.20M	-255.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-142.20M	-157.00M	-62.50M	-202.90M	-113.50M	405.90M

Mobico Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MCG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.59, above the 50-day MA of 22.69, and below the 200-day MA of 29.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:MCG.

Mobico Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JSG	80 Outperform	£532.46M	16.05	12.46%	3.18%	6.55%	18.44%
KLR	80 Outperform	£1.22B	9.08	24.69%	3.08%	-1.17%	12.31%
KIE	74 Outperform	£937.82M	17.49	10.87%	3.19%	4.40%	31.59%
GDWN	73 Outperform	£1.88B	47.35	35.23%	1.01%	24.42%	103.25%
FGP	64 Neutral	£1.01B	8.39	19.57%	3.66%	3.45%	43.01%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MCG	48 Neutral	£141.97M	-0.13	-184.46%	―	-4.74%	-610.71%

Mobico Group Corporate Events

Mobico Resets German Rail Contracts in North Rhine-Westphalia to Cut Risk and Secure Growth

Mobico Group has reached an agreement in principle with five German Public Transport Authorities to realign contract terms for its rail operations in North Rhine-Westphalia and neighbouring areas, a move intended to materially reset and de-risk its German rail business and underpin its long-term sustainability. Under the revised structure, the Rhein-Muensterland Express contract for lines RE 7 and RB 48 will switch to a gross contract model from 2026, eliminating revenue risk for National Express and extending the term to 2032, while loss-making Rhein-Ruhr-Express contracts for lines including RE 1, RE 5, RE 6, RE 11 and RE 4 will be shortened to end in 2030 to allow retendering in line with the region’s transport plan, signalling a strategic repositioning that should improve operational stability and customer service once formal agreements are finalised by mid-2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico in Advanced Talks to Reshape German Rail Contracts for Long‑Term Sustainability

Mobico Group’s German rail subsidiary, National Express Rail GmbH, is in advanced talks to finalise a comprehensive agreement in principle with five German Public Transport Authorities to realign contract terms for rail services in North Rhine-Westphalia and adjacent regions. The proposed agreement, which still requires approvals from the governing bodies of each authority and the conclusion of legally binding contracts, is intended to secure a sustainable rail business for Mobico in the region, although the company cautions that there is no certainty all approvals will be granted or that a final deal will be reached.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group’s Executive Share Transaction Underlines Regulatory Compliance

Mobico Group PLC announced a transaction involving Francisco Iglesias Campos, the Group Chief Operating Officer and ALSA CEO, who vested 185,782 shares under the company’s Restricted Share Plan. Of these, 85,638 shares were sold to cover tax and associated costs. This transaction highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive interests with shareholder value, while also adhering to regulatory obligations under the EU Market Abuse Regulation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Reports Revenue Growth Amid Strategic Shifts

Mobico Group PLC reported a 5.4% increase in year-to-date group revenue, driven by growth in its ALSA division and strategic expansions, despite challenges in the UK market and a decline in WeDriveU revenues. The company is implementing a large-scale cost reduction program and exploring asset monetization in the UK Bus business to strengthen its financial position. Mobico is on track to meet its adjusted operating profit guidance for 2025, albeit at the lower end of expectations due to competitive pressures and reduced passenger numbers in certain segments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Appoints KPMG as Auditor and Adjusts Financial Year End

Mobico Group PLC, a company in the transportation industry, has announced the appointment of KPMG LLP as its new auditor. The company will also change its accounting reference date and financial year end from 31 December to 31 March. This change is intended to provide sufficient time for the preparation of financial statements and the completion of audits. As a result, Mobico’s next financial reporting events will include the publication of unaudited interim results for the 12 months ending 31 December 2025 by 31 March 2026, and audited annual accounts for the 15 months ending 31 March 2026 by 31 July 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group PLC Introduces Share-Based Executive Remuneration

Mobico Group PLC has announced a significant update in its executive remuneration strategy by granting a nil cost option award over a substantial number of ordinary shares to its Executive Chair, Phil White, and Group CFO, Brian Egan. This move, approved by the Remuneration Committee, introduces a share-based component to their 2025 fixed pay, with vesting dates set for mid-2026, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Buy with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.