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Mobico Group (GB:MCG)
LSE:MCG

Mobico Group (MCG) AI Stock Analysis

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Mobico Group

(LSE:MCG)

Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
26.00p
▼(-11.44%Downside)
Mobico Group's overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance, characterized by persistent losses and high leverage. Although technical indicators show bearish momentum, strategic divestments and contract wins offer potential recovery avenues. Valuation concerns and operational headwinds remain significant, impacting the overall attractiveness of the stock.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Revenues increased by 8% to £3,412m, which is 2% ahead of consensus.
Growth Prospects
The remainco is projected to be a leaner, higher growth entity with a 10% revenue increase in FY24 compared to the industry average of 4%.
Negative Factors
Disposal Value
Investor attention has focused on the low disposal value, which was $608m EV, compared to the Jefferies expected range of $650-1,570m.
Financial Guidance
Mobico now expects FY24 EBIT at the lower end of the guidance range.
Operational Challenges
UK & Germany operations remain challenging, with an additional £85m write-down in Germany rail.

Mobico Group (MCG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Mobico Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMobico Group Plc engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, France, and Portugal. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles. The company also provides student transportation, urban bus, regional/long haul coach, rail, and charter and other services; transit and scheduled coach services; and private hire and commuter coach travel services. In addition, it operates alternative fuel technologies, such as propane, electric, and hydrogen; and offers shuttle services. The company has a fleet of approximately 28,000 vehicles. It provides its services to cities, businesses, and education providers, as well as direct to customers. The company was formerly known as National Express Group PLC and changed its name to Mobico Group Plc in June 2023. Mobico Group Plc was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyMobico Group generates revenue through several key streams, including fare collection from public transit users, contracts with government and private entities for transportation services, and logistics services for freight and cargo. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach. Additionally, Mobico Group may derive income from ancillary services such as advertising on its vehicles and facilities, and leasing transport-related infrastructure.

Mobico Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -12.57%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong performances in ALSA and WeDriveU, successful strategic moves such as the sale of the North America School Bus, and improvements in cash flow and contract wins. However, these positives are balanced by significant challenges, including statutory losses due to impairments, ongoing issues in the German Rail sector, and delays in the U.K. turnaround. Despite operational successes, the financial and operational headwinds are substantial.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Performance from ALSA
ALSA delivered another record result, significantly contributing to the Group's growth with an adjusted operating profit increase of 36% to £186.1 million.
Revenue Growth in WeDriveU
WeDriveU showed an 18.9% revenue improvement versus 2023, with a promising future outlook driven by new contracts and asset-light opportunities.
Successful Sale of North America School Bus
The sale of North America School Bus to I Squared Capital for a headline enterprise value of $608 million, enabling a focus on more attractive growth opportunities.
Improvement in Free Cash Flow
Mobico Group delivered EBIT within guidance for the full year 2024, with an improvement in free cash flow and an 11% growth in operating profits.
New Contract Wins
The Group won 36 new contracts with a combined annual revenue of £144 million, up from £126 million the previous year.
Negative Updates
Statutory Loss Due to Impairments
Significant impairments and adjusting items led to a statutory loss for the year, primarily due to goodwill impairment in North America School Bus and increased contract provisions in German Rail.
Challenges in German Rail
The German Rail industry faced significant challenges with ongoing negotiations with PTAs, driver shortages, and infrastructure issues impacting profitability.
U.K. Turnaround Delays
The turnaround in the U.K. is taking longer than initially expected, with full benefits not anticipated until 2025.
Increased Central Costs
There was a step-up in central costs due to bonus payments and other administrative expenditures.
Higher Interest Costs
Interest costs increased by £22.6 million due to new bond issuance and higher rates on floating debt.
Company Guidance
In the 2024 fiscal year, Mobico Group delivered a strong performance with key metrics indicating progress towards financial stability and growth. The Group achieved an 11% growth in operating profits, largely driven by ALSA’s record results and WeDriveU’s revenue growth of 18.9% compared to 2023. Mobico's EBIT was within the guidance range, supported by a significant improvement in free cash flow and a modest reduction in Covenant Gearing to 2.8 times from 3 times. The sale of the North America School Bus business for a headline enterprise value of $608 million, translating to a £300 million net proceeds, was a strategic move to accelerate debt reduction. However, the Group faced challenges with significant impairments leading to a statutory loss, primarily due to North America School Bus and the German Rail owner’s contract provisions. Despite these setbacks, Mobico made critical operational advancements, securing 36 new contracts worth a total annual revenue of £144 million and maintaining a contract win conversion rate of 22%. The Group remains focused on cash management and debt reduction, with a commitment to further enhance pricing strategies to counterbalance inflationary pressures. These financial and operational strategies position Mobico to continue its recovery and growth trajectory in the coming years.

Mobico Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mobico Group's financial performance shows positive revenue growth but struggles with profitability, high leverage, and volatile cash flows. Net losses and negative margins persist, indicating challenges in achieving financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Mobico Group has demonstrated a mixed performance in its income statement. The revenue growth rate has been positive over the recent years, indicating a recovery trajectory. However, the company consistently reports negative net income, leading to negative net profit margins. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerning, with EBITDA turning negative in the latest period. This reflects challenges in managing operational costs.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's balance sheet reflects high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio that indicates significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio has decreased over time, showing declining shareholder equity relative to total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to the recurring net losses. These factors suggest financial stability concerns, although the company maintains a substantial asset base.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates some positive movement with operating cash flow improving in recent years. However, free cash flow has been volatile, with a decline in the latest period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to persistent net losses. Overall, cash flow management appears challenging, impacting the company's ability to generate sustainable cash reserves.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.41B3.15B2.81B2.17B1.96B
Gross Profit
1.10B1.49B1.54B1.09B887.10M
EBIT
-519.90M-21.40M-158.50M-36.20M-381.40M
EBITDA
-250.70M235.20M82.00M219.90M-88.80M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-824.10M-163.80M-221.80M-81.60M-331.70M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
244.50M356.30M291.80M496.50M520.50M
Total Assets
3.24B4.08B4.15B4.29B4.38B
Total Debt
1.47B1.56B1.49B1.60B1.48B
Net Debt
1.22B1.21B1.20B1.10B959.50M
Total Liabilities
3.02B3.01B2.76B2.84B2.90B
Stockholders Equity
184.80M1.04B1.35B1.41B1.44B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
63.40M88.90M41.50M-42.00M-334.70M
Operating Cash Flow
259.00M230.00M221.20M170.90M-96.70M
Investing Cash Flow
-190.00M-103.10M-180.40M-197.20M-255.40M
Financing Cash Flow
-157.00M-62.50M-202.90M-113.50M388.60M

Mobico Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price29.36
Price Trends
50DMA
42.05
Negative
100DMA
55.64
Negative
200DMA
65.52
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.94
Negative
RSI
36.18
Neutral
STOCH
43.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MCG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.08, below the 50-day MA of 42.05, and below the 200-day MA of 65.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MCG.

Mobico Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£645.13M14.2522.62%2.30%3.23%2.00%
77
Outperform
£398.60M10.1335.97%4.14%22.39%179.53%
GBKIE
77
Outperform
£719.57M16.8810.20%3.24%8.04%6.94%
66
Neutral
$4.50B12.285.32%248.52%4.13%-12.36%
GBRWI
64
Neutral
£701.90M6.50%0.58%-14.90%-232.50%
GBFGP
56
Neutral
£1.11B12.6214.51%2.92%2.16%243.88%
GBMCG
41
Neutral
£181.26M-135.03%8.30%-346.39%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:MCG
Mobico Group
29.36
-21.64
-42.43%
GB:FGP
Firstgroup
194.90
31.12
19.00%
GB:GFRD
Galliford Try
410.50
173.41
73.14%
GB:KIE
Kier Group plc
169.00
34.47
25.62%
GB:RNWH
Renew Holdings plc
825.00
-221.67
-21.18%
GB:RWI
Renewi plc
868.00
203.93
30.71%

Mobico Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mobico Group Withdraws AGM Resolution Following Board Resignation
Neutral
Jun 4, 2025

Mobico Group PLC has announced the withdrawal of Resolution 7 from the agenda of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, following the resignation of Ignacio Garat from the Board. This resolution pertained to his re-election as a director. The removal of this resolution does not impact the validity of the AGM notice or any proxy votes already submitted for other resolutions, ensuring the meeting’s proceedings remain unaffected.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mobico Group Sees Increase in Major Shareholder Voting Rights
Neutral
May 29, 2025

Mobico Group PLC, a UK-based issuer, has announced a change in its major holdings. European Express Enterprises Limited has increased its voting rights in Mobico Group to 22.056922% from a previous position of 21.079860%. This acquisition of voting rights signifies a notable shift in the company’s shareholder structure, potentially impacting its governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Other
Mobico Group’s Executive Chair Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
May 19, 2025

Mobico Group PLC announced a share purchase by Phil White, the Executive Chair, who acquired 330,000 ordinary shares at a price of £0.28737 per share. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects a significant investment by a key executive, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mobico Group Reports 9% Revenue Growth in Q1 2025 Amid Strategic Divestments
Positive
May 19, 2025

Mobico Group PLC reported a 9% increase in group revenue for Q1 2025, driven by growing passenger demand, particularly in the ALSA division. The company is focusing on financial improvements, including cash flow enhancement and debt reduction, with the divestment of its North America School Bus business on track. ALSA saw a 13% revenue growth due to strong performance in Spanish Long Haul and regional contracts, while North America experienced a similar growth rate, supported by increased billable hours and rate hikes. In contrast, the UK and Germany faced challenges, with revenue declines of 2% and 3%, respectively, due to ongoing turnaround efforts and driver shortages.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mobico Group Grants Share Awards to Key Executives
Neutral
May 7, 2025

Mobico Group PLC has announced the granting of nil cost option awards over ordinary shares to key managerial personnel under its Long-Term Incentive Plan 2015. The awards, which are subject to the discretion of the Remuneration Committee, aim to align managerial interests with corporate performance, potentially impacting shareholder experience and addressing concerns such as windfall gains and safety issues.

Other
Mobico Group COO Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

Mobico Group PLC announced that Francisco Iglesias, the Group Chief Operating Officer and ALSA CEO, has purchased 246,750 ordinary shares of the company on April 29, 2025. This transaction reflects Iglesias’ increased stake in the company, potentially signaling confidence in Mobico’s future performance and aligning management interests with those of shareholders.

Shareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mobico Group Publishes 2024 Annual Report and Announces 2025 AGM
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

Mobico Group PLC has released its 2024 Annual Report and announced the Notice of the 2025 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for June 9, 2025, in London. The documents, including the Form of Proxy and Rules of the 2025 LTIP, are available for shareholders and have been submitted to the Financial Conduct Authority for public inspection. The outcome of the AGM’s resolutions will be disclosed post-meeting, impacting the company’s governance and shareholder engagement.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mobico Group Reports 2024 Results and Strategic Divestment
Positive
Apr 29, 2025

Mobico Group PLC reported a 2024 adjusted operating profit of £187.7 million, in line with market guidance, despite a statutory operating loss after tax of £793.8 million due to non-cash adjustments. The company announced the sale of its North American School Bus division for up to $608 million, a move aimed at reducing net debt and reallocating resources to more profitable segments like ALSA. This strategic divestment is expected to simplify Mobico’s portfolio and strengthen its financial position, enabling further growth and operational focus in its remaining divisions.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mobico Group Announces CEO Transition as Ignacio Garat Steps Down
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

Mobico Group PLC announced that CEO Ignacio Garat will step down effective April 30, 2025, transitioning to an advisory role for three months to ensure a smooth leadership transition. Phil White, the Chair designate with extensive experience in the transport sector, will serve as Executive Chair on an interim basis. This leadership change follows the completion of the North America School Bus sale and the announcement of full-year results, marking a strategic shift as the company aims to enhance operational and financial performance.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mobico Group Sells North America School Bus Business to I Squared Capital
Positive
Apr 25, 2025

Mobico Group PLC has announced the sale of its North America School Bus business to I Squared Capital for up to $608 million. This strategic move is aimed at reducing the company’s net debt and enhancing financial flexibility to focus on growth opportunities, especially in its ALSA division. The transaction, expected to complete in the third quarter of 2025, will allow Mobico to reallocate resources from the capital-intensive school bus segment to more profitable ventures, supporting its ongoing deleveraging efforts and strengthening its balance sheet. The sale is seen as a positive step in addressing the operational challenges faced by the School Bus business post-pandemic and is unanimously supported by Mobico’s Board.

Financial Disclosures
Mobico Group to Announce FY24 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 23, 2025

Mobico Group PLC has announced that it will release its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2024, on April 29, 2025. The presentation of these results will be led by Group CEO Ignacio Garat and CFO Helen Cowing, targeting analysts and institutional investors. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.

Executive/Board Changes
Mobico Group Appoints Phil White as New Chair
Positive
Mar 27, 2025

Mobico Group plc has appointed Phil White as the new Chair of the Board, effective May 1, 2025, succeeding Helen Weir. Phil White brings over 40 years of experience in the transport sector, including a previous tenure as CEO of National Express Group plc, where he expanded the business internationally. His appointment is expected to bring valuable expertise as Mobico focuses on future challenges and opportunities, enhancing its industry positioning and creating a business fit for the future.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.