Mobico Group (MCG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £133.42M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.48M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: -4.74%
• EPS Growth: -610.71%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 51,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 614,086,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,176,117
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,481,091
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £45.00
• Price Target Upside: 105.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: 21.00p ▼(-3.93% Downside)

Mobico Group's stock score is primarily impacted by its challenging financial performance, with consistent net losses and high leverage. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, further weighing on the score. Valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings and lack of dividends. While the earnings call highlighted some positive revenue growth, significant operational and financial challenges persist.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The 7% revenue growth indicates a positive trend in market demand and operational effectiveness, driven by strong performance in key divisions like ALSA.

ALSA Performance

ALSA's robust profit growth and increased passenger numbers in Spain highlight its competitive strength and potential for sustained profitability.

New Contracts and Opportunities

Securing large contracts in new markets like Saudi Arabia can diversify revenue streams and enhance long-term growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Profit Decline

The decline in operating profit underscores challenges in maintaining cost efficiency and profitability amidst operational issues.

High Debt Levels

Increased debt levels can strain financial flexibility, necessitating tighter control over capital expenditures and working capital.

Operational Challenges in WeDriveU

Operational difficulties in WeDriveU, particularly in paratransit contracts, highlight execution risks that could affect overall profitability.

Mobico Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mobico Group Plc engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, France, and Portugal. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles. The company also provides student transportation, urban bus, regional/long haul coach, rail, and charter and other services; transit and scheduled coach services; and private hire and commuter coach travel services. In addition, it operates alternative fuel technologies, such as propane, electric, and hydrogen; and offers shuttle services. The company has a fleet of approximately 28,000 vehicles. It provides its services to cities, businesses, and education providers, as well as direct to customers. The company was formerly known as National Express Group PLC and changed its name to Mobico Group Plc in June 2023. Mobico Group Plc was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Mobico Group generates revenue primarily through the operation of public transport services, including bus and coach services, which are funded by passenger fares, contracts with local authorities, and subsidies from government entities. Key revenue streams include ticket sales from individual passengers, long-term contracts with municipalities for public transport services, and partnerships with businesses for corporate transport solutions. Additionally, Mobico Group may earn revenue through ancillary services such as advertising on vehicles and at stations, as well as through digital platforms that facilitate ticket sales and customer engagement. Strategic partnerships with local governments and transport agencies play a significant role in securing contracts and funding, thereby contributing to the company's overall earnings.

Mobico Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mobico Group faces a challenging financial environment. While revenue growth shows positive signs, profitability metrics are under pressure, with consistent net losses and negative margins. The balance sheet reflects high leverage and declining equity, while cash flow stability remains a concern. Strategic focus on cost management and improving operational efficiencies will be crucial for financial recovery and long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Mobico Group has demonstrated a mixed performance in its income statement. The revenue growth rate has been positive over the recent years, indicating a recovery trajectory. However, the company consistently reports negative net income, leading to negative net profit margins. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerning, with EBITDA turning negative in the latest period. This reflects challenges in managing operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio that indicates significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio has decreased over time, showing declining shareholder equity relative to total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to the recurring net losses. These factors suggest financial stability concerns, although the company maintains a substantial asset base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates some positive movement with operating cash flow improving in recent years. However, free cash flow has been volatile, with a decline in the latest period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to persistent net losses. Overall, cash flow management appears challenging, impacting the company's ability to generate sustainable cash reserves.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.08B	3.41B	3.15B	2.81B	2.17B	1.96B
Gross Profit	151.70M	1.10B	1.49B	1.09B	935.30M	443.50M
EBITDA	-270.90M	-250.70M	235.20M	82.00M	215.20M	-88.80M
Net Income	-1.06B	-824.10M	-163.80M	-253.60M	-102.00M	-331.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.00B	3.24B	4.08B	4.15B	4.29B	4.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	197.80M	244.50M	356.30M	291.80M	508.40M	520.50M
Total Debt	1.48B	1.47B	1.56B	1.49B	1.60B	1.67B
Total Liabilities	3.07B	3.02B	3.01B	2.76B	2.84B	2.90B
Stockholders Equity	-110.50M	184.80M	1.04B	1.35B	1.43B	1.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.90M	63.40M	88.90M	41.50M	-42.00M	-334.70M
Operating Cash Flow	217.30M	259.00M	230.00M	221.20M	170.90M	-96.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-172.30M	-190.00M	-103.10M	-180.40M	-197.20M	-255.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-142.20M	-157.00M	-62.50M	-202.90M	-113.50M	405.90M

Mobico Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MCG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.17, below the 50-day MA of 26.56, and below the 200-day MA of 37.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.27 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MCG.

Mobico Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KIE	78 Outperform	£900.43M	16.67	10.87%	3.31%	4.40%	31.59%
RNWH	76 Outperform	£739.32M	16.33	19.85%	2.12%	7.13%	17.31%
GFRD	71 Outperform	£494.47M	14.94	27.48%	3.93%	5.78%	-6.80%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
FGP	61 Neutral	£1.13B	9.77	19.57%	3.95%	3.45%	43.01%
MCG	42 Neutral	£133.42M	-0.12	-184.46%	―	-4.74%	-610.71%

Mobico Group Corporate Events

Mobico Group PLC Introduces Share-Based Executive Remuneration

Mobico Group PLC has announced a significant update in its executive remuneration strategy by granting a nil cost option award over a substantial number of ordinary shares to its Executive Chair, Phil White, and Group CFO, Brian Egan. This move, approved by the Remuneration Committee, introduces a share-based component to their 2025 fixed pay, with vesting dates set for mid-2026, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Buy with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Secures Major Contract in Saudi Arabia

Mobico Group’s subsidiary, ALSA, has secured a significant eight-year contract in Saudi Arabia valued at €500 million. This contract, in partnership with a local company, will operate 156 vehicles, including 126 electric ones, to serve Qiddiya, a major entertainment destination near Riyadh. The win enhances Mobico’s presence in the Middle East and demonstrates ALSA’s capability in securing large-scale, sustainable transport projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Enhances Brokerage Team with New Appointment

Mobico Group PLC has appointed Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co KG, London Branch as its Joint Corporate Broker alongside Merrill Lynch International, effective immediately. This strategic move is expected to enhance Mobico’s market presence and strengthen its financial advisory capabilities, potentially benefiting stakeholders by improving the company’s positioning in the shared mobility industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £0.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Announces Auditor Resignation

Mobico Group PLC announced the resignation of Deloitte LLP as its auditor, effective 19 September 2025, following the release of the company’s 2025 Half Year results. The company is currently in the process of appointing a new auditor and will make further announcements in due course. This change in auditors may impact the company’s financial oversight and reporting processes, which is crucial for maintaining stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for Mobico Group Plc painted a mixed picture for investors. While the company reported strong revenue growth, particularly driven by ALSA and new contract opportunities, significant challenges remain. These include a decline in profit, high debt levels, and operational issues in divisions like WeDriveU and German Rail.

Mobico Group Reports Revenue Growth and Strategic Moves in H1 2025

Mobico Group PLC reported continued revenue growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strong passenger demand and contract wins, particularly in its ALSA division. Despite challenges in its WeDriveU contracts and a competitive UK market impacting operating profit, the company maintains its full-year profit guidance. The sale of its North America School Bus business has bolstered liquidity and is part of a strategic focus on deleveraging. Mobico is also implementing cost reduction plans and integrating UK Coach operations with ALSA to enhance synergies and efficiencies.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.