Mobico Group (GB:MCG)
LSE:MCG
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Mobico Group
(LSE:MCG)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
21.50 p
▼(-19.35% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/16/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, negative equity, and uneven free cash flow). Offsetting factors are a moderately improving technical setup and a cautiously constructive earnings outlook with cost savings and cash/deleveraging priorities, though valuation remains challenged given negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Diversified contract and fare revenue with scale (Alsa)
Mobico’s mix of contracted operations, commercial farebox revenue and rail services plus large-scale Alsa operations provides durable revenue diversification. Alsa’s high passenger volumes and margin improvement support stable cash flows and pricing leverage versus smaller regional operators.
Negative Factors
Negative equity and elevated debt
Negative equity and high gross debt materially weaken balance sheet resilience. This constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing and covenant risk, and limits capacity to invest or absorb shocks until equity is rebuilt or debt materially reduced.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified contract and fare revenue with scale (Alsa)
Mobico’s mix of contracted operations, commercial farebox revenue and rail services plus large-scale Alsa operations provides durable revenue diversification. Alsa’s high passenger volumes and margin improvement support stable cash flows and pricing leverage versus smaller regional operators.
Read all positive factors
Mobico Group (MCG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£158.20M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth-19.76%
EPS Growth61.69%
CountryUK
Employees51,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding614,086,360
10 Day Avg. Volume4,176,117
30 Day Avg. Volume5,481,091
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.05
P/FCF Ratio-2.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£47.50Price Target Upside78.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)£2.88B
Mobico Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mobico Group Plc engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, France, and Portugal. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America seg...
How the Company Makes Money
Mobico Group makes money primarily by operating passenger transport services and earning revenue from a mix of passenger fares and contracted payments. A key revenue stream is farebox income collected from customers using its bus and coach network...
Mobico Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a clear operational turnaround in H2 and strong performance from Alsa (record revenue, passengers and margins), contract wins (totaling >GBP 1bn) and explicit cash/liquidity improvements and cost‑saving targets. However, the results are tempered by sizeable adjusting charges and provisions (German onerous contracts, WMATA, Morocco), legacy legal/insurance liabilities and reporting complexity due to auditor transition. Management emphasized simplification, active derisking of contracts and disciplined capital allocation. Overall the positives around operational recovery, Alsa strength, cash/liquidity and a defined cost‑savings program balance the material one‑off losses and provisions, leaving the tone cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Revenue increased ~6.2% year‑on‑year to GBP 2.8 billion (2025), driven primarily by Alsa and WeDriveU growth.
Negative Updates
Significant Adjusting Items and Cash-Outflows
There were material adjusting items and cash outflows: cash outflow of c. GBP 118 million related to items excluded from adjusted results and GBP 35 million of restructuring/streamlining spend (cash impact GBP 29.8 million). Amortization of acquisition intangibles increased by GBP 2.8 million.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Revenue increased ~6.2% year‑on‑year to GBP 2.8 billion (2025), driven primarily by Alsa and WeDriveU growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management guided to an adjusted operating profit range of £195–210m for 2026, underpinned by a Simplify for Success cost program targeting £75m of savings in 2026 with a £100m pa run‑rate by year‑end, disciplined CapEx of c.£120m, and a focus on cash/deleveraging (net positive cash expected in 2026); key metrics supporting the outlook include FY25 revenue of c.£2.8bn (+6.2%), H2 operating profit of £138m (H1 £60m), Alsa at £1.5bn revenue (≈+12.8%) and 640m passengers (+10% Spanish demand), 25 new contracts worth £450m (conversion rate 28% v 23% prior year) with total new wins >£1bn including Qiddiya/Guadalajara, FY25 free cash flow £77.3m (or c.£76m ex‑school bus), a £286m cash inflow from the school‑bus sale, covenant gearing ~2.7x, nearly €900m of cash/undrawn facilities and c.94% of debt fixed; balance‑sheet provisions to note are a £52m WMATA provision (c.£47m remaining, ~£8m expected to be utilised in 2026) and a German rail onerous contract provision of £133m after £56m utilisation, and the group will update guidance if the German PTA agreements (expected by 30 June) materially change outcomes.Mobico Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.74B | 3.41B | 3.15B | 2.81B | 2.17B |
| Gross Profit | 124.10M | 1.10B | 1.49B | 1.09B | 935.30M |
| EBITDA | 316.80M | -250.70M | 235.20M | 82.00M | 215.20M |
| Net Income | -294.30M | -824.10M | -163.80M | -253.60M | -102.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.72B | 3.24B | 4.08B | 4.15B | 4.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 406.80M | 244.50M | 356.30M | 291.80M | 508.40M |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 1.47B | 1.56B | 1.49B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.93B | 3.02B | 3.01B | 2.76B | 2.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | -256.30M | 184.80M | 1.04B | 1.35B | 1.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -59.70M | 63.40M | 88.90M | 41.50M | -42.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 109.60M | 259.00M | 230.00M | 221.20M | 170.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 44.00M | -190.00M | -103.10M | -180.40M | -197.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -81.80M | -157.00M | -62.50M | -202.90M | -113.50M |
Mobico Group Technical Analysis
Positive
26.66
Price Trends
22.57
Positive
22.73
Positive
26.47
Positive
Market Momentum
0.72
Negative
69.32
Neutral
85.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MCG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.31, above the 50-day MA of 22.57, and above the 200-day MA of 26.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:MCG.
Mobico Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | £1.51B | 3.78 | 23.46% | 3.08% | 3.37% | 2.19% | |
71 Outperform | £848.58M | 15.43 | 33.12% | 1.01% | 24.42% | 103.25% | |
71 Outperform | £869.53M | 9.81 | 11.69% | 3.19% | 2.50% | 40.96% | |
64 Neutral | £914.09M | 5.69 | 19.28% | 3.66% | 3.45% | 43.01% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | £496.00M | 5.91 | 13.04% | 3.18% | 4.29% | 7.68% | |
47 Neutral | £158.20M | -0.48 | 160.47% | ― | -19.76% | 61.69% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GB:MCG
Mobico Group
23.68
-7.42
-23.86%
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Mobico Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Mobico grants major long‑term share awards to incoming CEO and CFO
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
Mobico Group PLC has granted nil‑cost option awards over ordinary shares to two senior executives under its 2025 Long‑Term Incentive Plan, awarding 5,525,164 shares to Group Chief Financial Officer Brian Egan and 7,416,281 shares to Gr...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mobico Elevates Alsa Chief Paco Iglesias to Group CEO in Strategic Leadership Shift
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
Mobico Group has appointed Francisco “Paco” Iglesias as Group Chief Executive Officer, elevating him from his current role as Group Chief Operating Officer and long-serving CEO of its Alsa division. He will join the board and assume th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mobico lifts 2025 profit on Alsa strength as turnaround gains traction
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Mobico Group reported 2025 adjusted operating profit up 9% to £198m on revenue of £2.76bn, driven by another record year of double-digit growth at its Alsa division, which offset weaker trading in UK Coach and operational issues at U.S. ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mobico to Unveil 2025 Full-Year Results with Dual Investor Webcasts
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Mobico Group said it will publish unaudited results for the 12 months to 31 December 2025 on 26 February 2026, providing investors with the first detailed look at its most recent full-year trading performance. The update is expected to offer fresh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.