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Mobico Group (GB:MCG)
LSE:MCG
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Mobico Group (MCG) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:MCG

Mobico Group

(LSE:MCG)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
35.00p
▼(-3.79% Downside)
Mobico Group's overall stock score reflects financial challenges, including negative profitability and high leverage, despite strategic progress and short-term technical momentum. The valuation remains a concern due to net losses, while earnings call insights suggest cautious optimism with strategic improvements.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Revenues are up 8% to £3,412m, which is 2% ahead of consensus.
Revenue Growth
Mobico expects the remainco to deliver revenue and EBIT growth.
Negative Factors
Debt Concerns
Today's headlines offer little respite on deleverage concerns, with 1.5-2.0x covenant gearing now targeted 'over time' versus 'by FY27E' previously.
Disposal Valuation
The disposal valuation is below Jefferies expectations, impacted by a weaker recovery in NASB financials.
Regional Challenges
UK & Germany remains challenging with an incremental £85m Germany rail write-down.

Mobico Group (MCG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Mobico Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMobico Group (MCG) is a transportation and mobility company focused on providing innovative, efficient, and sustainable solutions across various sectors. The company primarily operates in the public transportation sector, offering services such as bus and rail transport. Mobico Group aims to enhance urban mobility, reduce environmental impact, and improve the overall travel experience for passengers.
How the Company Makes MoneyMobico Group generates revenue through the operation of public transportation services, including bus and rail networks. The company earns money from passenger fares, government contracts, and subsidies, which are often tied to service performance and delivery metrics. Additionally, Mobico Group may engage in strategic partnerships with local governments and other transportation agencies to expand its service offerings and improve infrastructure. Advertising and ancillary services provided within their transportation systems can also contribute to revenue streams. The company's focus on sustainability and efficiency can lead to cost savings, enhancing profitability.

Mobico Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 2.59%|
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong performances in ALSA and WeDriveU, successful strategic moves such as the sale of the North America School Bus, and improvements in cash flow and contract wins. However, these positives are balanced by significant challenges, including statutory losses due to impairments, ongoing issues in the German Rail sector, and delays in the U.K. turnaround. Despite operational successes, the financial and operational headwinds are substantial.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Performance from ALSA
ALSA delivered another record result, significantly contributing to the Group's growth with an adjusted operating profit increase of 36% to £186.1 million.
Revenue Growth in WeDriveU
WeDriveU showed an 18.9% revenue improvement versus 2023, with a promising future outlook driven by new contracts and asset-light opportunities.
Successful Sale of North America School Bus
The sale of North America School Bus to I Squared Capital for a headline enterprise value of $608 million, enabling a focus on more attractive growth opportunities.
Improvement in Free Cash Flow
Mobico Group delivered EBIT within guidance for the full year 2024, with an improvement in free cash flow and an 11% growth in operating profits.
New Contract Wins
The Group won 36 new contracts with a combined annual revenue of £144 million, up from £126 million the previous year.
Negative Updates
Statutory Loss Due to Impairments
Significant impairments and adjusting items led to a statutory loss for the year, primarily due to goodwill impairment in North America School Bus and increased contract provisions in German Rail.
Challenges in German Rail
The German Rail industry faced significant challenges with ongoing negotiations with PTAs, driver shortages, and infrastructure issues impacting profitability.
U.K. Turnaround Delays
The turnaround in the U.K. is taking longer than initially expected, with full benefits not anticipated until 2025.
Increased Central Costs
There was a step-up in central costs due to bonus payments and other administrative expenditures.
Higher Interest Costs
Interest costs increased by £22.6 million due to new bond issuance and higher rates on floating debt.
Company Guidance
In the 2024 fiscal year, Mobico Group delivered a strong performance with key metrics indicating progress towards financial stability and growth. The Group achieved an 11% growth in operating profits, largely driven by ALSA’s record results and WeDriveU’s revenue growth of 18.9% compared to 2023. Mobico's EBIT was within the guidance range, supported by a significant improvement in free cash flow and a modest reduction in Covenant Gearing to 2.8 times from 3 times. The sale of the North America School Bus business for a headline enterprise value of $608 million, translating to a £300 million net proceeds, was a strategic move to accelerate debt reduction. However, the Group faced challenges with significant impairments leading to a statutory loss, primarily due to North America School Bus and the German Rail owner’s contract provisions. Despite these setbacks, Mobico made critical operational advancements, securing 36 new contracts worth a total annual revenue of £144 million and maintaining a contract win conversion rate of 22%. The Group remains focused on cash management and debt reduction, with a commitment to further enhance pricing strategies to counterbalance inflationary pressures. These financial and operational strategies position Mobico to continue its recovery and growth trajectory in the coming years.

Mobico Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mobico Group faces a challenging financial environment. While revenue growth is positive, profitability metrics are under pressure with consistent net losses and negative margins. The balance sheet reflects high leverage and declining equity, while cash flow stability remains a concern.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Mobico Group has demonstrated a mixed performance in its income statement. The revenue growth rate has been positive over the recent years, indicating a recovery trajectory. However, the company consistently reports negative net income, leading to negative net profit margins. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerning, with EBITDA turning negative in the latest period. This reflects challenges in managing operational costs.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's balance sheet reflects high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio that indicates significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio has decreased over time, showing declining shareholder equity relative to total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to the recurring net losses. These factors suggest financial stability concerns, although the company maintains a substantial asset base.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates some positive movement with operating cash flow improving in recent years. However, free cash flow has been volatile, with a decline in the latest period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to persistent net losses. Overall, cash flow management appears challenging, impacting the company's ability to generate sustainable cash reserves.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.41B3.15B2.81B2.17B1.96B
Gross Profit1.10B1.49B1.54B1.09B887.10M
EBITDA-250.70M235.20M82.00M219.90M-88.80M
Net Income-824.10M-163.80M-221.80M-81.60M-331.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.24B4.08B4.15B4.29B4.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments244.50M356.30M291.80M496.50M520.50M
Total Debt1.47B1.56B1.49B1.60B1.48B
Total Liabilities3.02B3.01B2.76B2.84B2.90B
Stockholders Equity184.80M1.04B1.35B1.41B1.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow63.40M88.90M41.50M-42.00M-334.70M
Operating Cash Flow259.00M230.00M221.20M170.90M-96.70M
Investing Cash Flow-190.00M-103.10M-180.40M-197.20M-255.40M
Financing Cash Flow-157.00M-62.50M-202.90M-113.50M388.60M

Mobico Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price36.38
Price Trends
50DMA
31.26
Positive
100DMA
38.60
Negative
200DMA
56.75
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.69
Positive
RSI
60.67
Neutral
STOCH
51.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MCG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.23, above the 50-day MA of 31.26, and below the 200-day MA of 56.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:MCG.

Mobico Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
£657.79M14.5322.62%2.27%3.23%2.00%
78
Outperform
£424.90M10.7235.97%3.88%22.39%179.53%
73
Outperform
£884.77M20.8310.20%2.63%8.04%6.94%
73
Outperform
£1.28B10.8818.47%2.83%7.45%
66
Neutral
£2.70B12.643.89%3.23%2.72%-23.08%
52
Neutral
£227.05M-135.03%8.30%-346.39%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:MCG
Mobico Group
36.38
-18.02
-33.12%
GB:KIE
Kier Group plc
208.50
63.39
43.68%
GB:FGP
Firstgroup
230.00
73.38
46.85%
GB:RNWH
Renew Holdings plc
851.00
-201.52
-19.15%
GB:GFRD
Galliford Try
432.00
149.02
52.66%

Mobico Group Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mobico Group Completes Sale of North America School Bus Business
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

Mobico Group has completed the sale of its North America School Bus business to I Squared Capital for an enterprise value of up to $608 million. The transaction, approved by the US Surface Transportation Board, provides Mobico with $364 million in net upfront proceeds, which will be used to reduce the Group’s debt. This sale enhances Mobico’s financial flexibility, allowing the company to focus on its objective to de-leverage while maintaining strong liquidity with no significant debt maturities until 2027. The Group’s FY 25 Adjusted Operating Profit guidance remains unchanged, and the HY 25 results will be published on 9 September 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mobico Group PLC Announces Change in Voting Rights Structure
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025

Mobico Group PLC, a UK-based company, has announced a change in its voting rights structure due to an acquisition or disposal of shares by Aberforth Partners LLP, a firm registered in Edinburgh, UK. As of June 24, 2025, Aberforth Partners holds 5.42% of the voting rights in Mobico Group, with no voting rights through financial instruments. This change in shareholding was officially notified to Mobico Group on June 26, 2025, and reflects a significant stake in the company, potentially impacting its governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Mobico Group Grants Performance Share Award to CFO
Neutral
Jun 26, 2025

Mobico Group PLC announced a performance share award under its 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan to Brian Egan, the Group Chief Financial Officer. The award involves 2,523,264 ordinary shares and is structured as a nil cost option, with performance conditions aligned to the Directors’ Remuneration Policy. The award’s vesting is contingent on the company’s shareholder return performance over three years relative to the FTSE 250 Index, with discretion retained by the Remuneration Committee to adjust outcomes based on corporate performance and shareholder experience.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsFinancial Disclosures
Mobico Group Advances Sale of North America School Bus Business
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Mobico Group has announced progress in the sale of its North America School Bus business to I Squared Capital for up to $608 million, with final approval from the US Surface Transportation Board expected in early July 2025. The sale is anticipated to close in July 2025, providing Mobico with significant proceeds to manage debt maturities and maintain strong liquidity. The company also projects its FY 2025 Adjusted Operating Profit, excluding the School Bus contribution, to be between £180 – £195 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Mobico Group Appoints Brian Egan as New CFO
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Mobico Group has announced the appointment of Brian Egan as the new permanent Group Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Helen Cowing who served in an interim capacity. Brian Egan brings over 25 years of CFO experience from international companies, which is expected to strengthen Mobico’s financial operations and enhance its strategic positioning in the shared mobility industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mobico Group PLC Announces Successful AGM Resolutions
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

Mobico Group PLC, a company that held its Annual General Meeting on June 9, 2025, announced that all resolutions were passed with the necessary majority. The resolutions included re-appointments of directors, approval of the annual report on remuneration, and authorization of share allotment and purchase. Despite the overall support, the company noted that the backing for some director appointments was lower than usual, prompting the board to engage with shareholders to address their concerns. This engagement aligns with the UK Corporate Governance Code, and an update will be provided within six months.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mobico Group Withdraws AGM Resolution Following Board Resignation
Neutral
Jun 4, 2025

Mobico Group PLC has announced the withdrawal of Resolution 7 from the agenda of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, following the resignation of Ignacio Garat from the Board. This resolution pertained to his re-election as a director. The removal of this resolution does not impact the validity of the AGM notice or any proxy votes already submitted for other resolutions, ensuring the meeting’s proceedings remain unaffected.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mobico Group Sees Increase in Major Shareholder Voting Rights
Neutral
May 29, 2025

Mobico Group PLC, a UK-based issuer, has announced a change in its major holdings. European Express Enterprises Limited has increased its voting rights in Mobico Group to 22.056922% from a previous position of 21.079860%. This acquisition of voting rights signifies a notable shift in the company’s shareholder structure, potentially impacting its governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Other
Mobico Group’s Executive Chair Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
May 19, 2025

Mobico Group PLC announced a share purchase by Phil White, the Executive Chair, who acquired 330,000 ordinary shares at a price of £0.28737 per share. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects a significant investment by a key executive, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mobico Group Reports 9% Revenue Growth in Q1 2025 Amid Strategic Divestments
Positive
May 19, 2025

Mobico Group PLC reported a 9% increase in group revenue for Q1 2025, driven by growing passenger demand, particularly in the ALSA division. The company is focusing on financial improvements, including cash flow enhancement and debt reduction, with the divestment of its North America School Bus business on track. ALSA saw a 13% revenue growth due to strong performance in Spanish Long Haul and regional contracts, while North America experienced a similar growth rate, supported by increased billable hours and rate hikes. In contrast, the UK and Germany faced challenges, with revenue declines of 2% and 3%, respectively, due to ongoing turnaround efforts and driver shortages.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mobico Group Grants Share Awards to Key Executives
Neutral
May 7, 2025

Mobico Group PLC has announced the granting of nil cost option awards over ordinary shares to key managerial personnel under its Long-Term Incentive Plan 2015. The awards, which are subject to the discretion of the Remuneration Committee, aim to align managerial interests with corporate performance, potentially impacting shareholder experience and addressing concerns such as windfall gains and safety issues.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2025