Serco Group plc (SRP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £2.14B
• Dividend Yield: 144.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 50.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: -0.68%
• EPS Growth: -78.93%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 50,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 94
• Industry: Specialty Business Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 1,023,855,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,164,364
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,663,593
• PEG Ratio: -0.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £223.00
• Price Target Upside: 6.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: 218.00p ▲(4.51%Upside)

Serco Group plc's overall score of 75 reflects strong cash flow management and positive technical indicators, supported by strategic corporate actions. While the valuation suggests caution due to a high P/E ratio, recent acquisitions and contract wins bolster future growth prospects.

Serco Group plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Serco Group plc (SRP) is a leading provider of public services, operating across various sectors including defense, transportation, healthcare, justice, and immigration. The company delivers a wide range of services such as consulting, operations, and maintenance primarily for government clients. Serco's expertise lies in managing large-scale operations and providing essential services that support public sector functions globally.

How the Company Makes Money

Serco Group plc generates revenue through long-term contracts with government and public sector organizations. Key revenue streams include providing outsourced services such as facilities management, border security, health services, and transportation management. The company often engages in public-private partnerships, leveraging its expertise to improve operational efficiency and service delivery for its clients. Factors contributing to Serco's earnings include its ability to secure multi-year contracts, its focus on operational excellence, and strategic expansions into new markets and sectors.

Serco Group plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Serco Group plc exhibits strong cash flow generation and stable equity positioning, although challenges persist with profitability and rising debt levels. The ability to convert revenue into profit and manage operational costs effectively will be crucial moving forward.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a mixed performance. The gross profit margin shows stability with a modest increase over recent years. However, the net profit margin declined significantly in the latest year, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a slight contraction in the latest period. The EBIT margin has seen a noticeable decrease, reflecting operational inefficiencies, while EBITDA margin also fell, indicating pressure on earnings before depreciation and amortization.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio has risen, suggesting increased leverage, which could pose risks if earnings do not improve. Return on equity has decreased, showing reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating reasonable financial stability and asset management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow statements indicate strong cash generation. Free cash flow has grown consistently, demonstrating effective cash management and operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, signaling that cash flow generation remains strong relative to accounting profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio also suggests solid cash conversion, despite lower net income.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.79B	4.87B	4.53B	4.42B	3.88B
Gross Profit	518.60M	495.50M	493.50M	468.00M	383.00M
EBITDA	326.90M	422.00M	382.00M	365.20M	299.90M
Net Income	44.20M	202.40M	155.40M	303.90M	133.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.66B	2.61B	2.75B	2.73B	2.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	183.00M	94.40M	57.20M	198.40M	335.70M
Total Debt	806.40M	659.90M	708.90M	807.30M	791.40M
Total Liabilities	1.82B	1.58B	1.72B	1.73B	1.70B
Stockholders Equity	842.50M	1.03B	1.03B	1.01B	713.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	385.00M	368.40M	307.80M	317.80M	218.40M
Operating Cash Flow	419.40M	393.10M	327.20M	349.90M	268.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.40M	-5.40M	-35.30M	-232.30M	600.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-322.30M	-347.90M	-436.80M	-250.10M	-24.70M

Serco Group plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 208.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SRP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 208.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 209.67, above the 50-day MA of 199.34, and above the 200-day MA of 168.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SRP.

Serco Group plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ITRK	80 Outperform	£7.70B	22.91	25.35%	318.61%	1.94%	16.26%
SRP	75 Outperform	£2.14B	50.60	4.71%	144.71%	-0.68%	-78.93%
RTO	69 Neutral	£9.32B	30.45	7.38%	1.86%	1.13%	-19.48%
CPI	69 Neutral	£352.05M	4.55	49.03%	―	-10.33%	―
MTO	68 Neutral	£1.68B	16.78	23.48%	312.95%	14.34%	-16.43%
RST	68 Neutral	£372.43M	29.76	5.32%	204.98%	-0.65%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$11.14B	15.76	5.26%	2.01%	3.16%	-25.01%

Serco Group plc Corporate Events

Serco Appoints Keith Williams as New Board Chair

Serco Group plc has announced the appointment of Keith Williams as the new Board Chair, effective from January 2026, succeeding John Rishton. Williams, who brings extensive leadership experience from various industries, is expected to support Serco’s growth and value creation for stakeholders, continuing the company’s trajectory of delivering critical public services globally.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRP) stock is a Buy with a £225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serco Group plc stock, see the GB:SRP Stock Forecast page.

Serco Group Reports Strong First-Half Performance and Confirms Full-Year Guidance

Serco Group plc reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching approximately £2.4 billion, marking a 2% increase. The company secured around £3 billion in contract awards, particularly in the defense sector, and completed the acquisition of MT&S, enhancing its capabilities in the US and international defense markets. Despite challenges in the immigration sector, Serco remains confident in its full-year guidance, expecting organic revenue growth of about 1% and maintaining an underlying operating profit forecast of £260 million. The company’s strong financial position and strategic acquisitions position it well for future growth and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRP) stock is a Buy with a £225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serco Group plc stock, see the GB:SRP Stock Forecast page.

Serco Completes Strategic Acquisition of MT&S to Boost Defense Sector

Serco Group plc has completed the acquisition of Northrop Grumman’s mission training and satellite ground network communications software business, MT&S, through its US subsidiary, Serco Inc. This acquisition is expected to significantly enhance Serco’s defense sector operations, which will now account for approximately 40% of the company’s revenue. The acquisition is projected to contribute $175 million in revenue and $20 million in underlying operating profit for 2025, with the transaction being accretive to earnings per share by 2026. The acquisition strengthens Serco’s position for future organic growth and increases its scale and breadth of solutions in the defense industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRP) stock is a Buy with a £225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serco Group plc stock, see the GB:SRP Stock Forecast page.

Serco Secures £1bn Maritime Services Contracts with UK Ministry of Defence

Serco Group plc has secured three significant contracts valued at over £1 billion from the UK Ministry of Defence to provide maritime services for the Royal Navy. These contracts, which will commence later this year, include the procurement of new vessels and the provision of in-port and offshore support services, further solidifying Serco’s position in the defense market. This achievement is part of Serco’s broader strategy of expanding its defense contract portfolio globally, highlighting its role as a key partner in military operations and its commitment to modernizing naval support capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRP) stock is a Buy with a £2.83 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serco Group plc stock, see the GB:SRP Stock Forecast page.

Serco CFO Engages in Share Acquisition Reflecting Confidence

Serco Group plc announced a transaction involving Nigel Crossley, the Group Chief Financial Officer, who participated in a Dividend Reinvestment Plan by acquiring ordinary shares. This transaction, compliant with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence. The acquisition of shares by a senior executive may indicate confidence in the company’s future performance, potentially impacting investor sentiment positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SRP) stock is a Buy with a £225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Serco Group plc stock, see the GB:SRP Stock Forecast page.

Serco Group Announces Managerial Share Interest Changes

Serco Group plc announced changes in the interests of its managerial staff in ordinary shares, following the grant of dividend equivalents at a price of £1.593 per share. This move, which applies to various incentive plans, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning managerial interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder relationships.