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Capita PLC (GB:CPI)
LSE:CPI

Capita plc (CPI) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:CPI

Capita plc

(LSE:CPI)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
432.00p
▲(6.54% Upside)
Capita plc's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with significant leverage and cash flow issues. Strong technical momentum and positive corporate events provide some optimism, but valuation concerns and regulatory challenges temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue from long-term contracts
Capita's contract-based model delivers durable revenue visibility via long-term public and private agreements. This recurring income supports planning, resource allocation, and potential contract renewals, enabling steadier medium-term cash flow and customer retention versus spot services.
Diversified public and private sector footprint
Wide sector exposure across government, healthcare, education and transport reduces customer concentration and cyclical risk. Public-sector mandates typically provide multi-year demand and renewal opportunities, helping stabilize revenues and preserve institutional client relationships over the medium term.
Focus on digital transformation and tech-enabled services
Investing in digital and tech-enabled services positions Capita to productize offerings, raise service margins, and deepen client stickiness. Structural migration of outsourcing to digital solutions supports higher-value contracts and cross-sell potential, aiding sustainable revenue mix improvement.
Negative Factors
High leverage on the balance sheet
Significant leverage constrains strategic flexibility, increases refinancing and interest-rate vulnerability, and limits capacity for acquisitions or investment. Over 2–6 months, high debt raises default and covenant risk and reduces ability to fund transformation or absorb contract delays.
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow
Ongoing negative operating and free cash flow undermines the firm's ability to de-lever, invest in technology, or return capital. Reliance on external financing to cover cash deficits creates structural liquidity risk and reduces resilience to contract renegotiations or delayed payments.
Declining revenue and weak profitability trends
Falling top-line trends and weak EBIT margins shrink scale economics and limit reinvestment capacity. Persistent revenue decline pressures pricing power and margin recovery, making it harder to fund digital initiatives and threatening long-term competitiveness in contract renewals.

Capita plc (CPI) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Capita plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCapita plc provides consulting, digital, and software products and services to clients in the private and public sectors in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through Public Service, Experience, and Portfolio divisions. The company offers solutions for finance and accounting, procurement, property and infrastructure, travel and event, and workplace administration. It also provides customer experience transformation, contact management, collection, complaint handling, customer acquisition and retention, customer experience system and software, and data and analytics. In addition, the company offers capita licensing and support, support, digital policing, and engineering practice; education service and local education authority software; various solutions that help businesses create connected experiences that deliver right message across organisations, customers, and suppliers; solutions for central and local government services; corporate learning, fire service college, employability, and capita apprenticeship solutions; and employer branding and marketing, flexible workforce solutions, agile resourcing solutions, executive and specialist recruitment, background checking and vetting, and digital HR management and transformation solutions. Further, it provides pension administration and software, pensions consulting, and data, insights, and remediation solutions; automation, critical communication systems, finance and payment software, local education authority software, management information systems, and workforce management software solutions; cloud, cyber security, digital connectivity, IT services, robotic process automation, and workplace IT; and actuarial, defence, financial, healthcare, housing, legal, public safety, utility, and welfare and employability services. The company was formerly known as The Capita Group plc and changed its name to Capita plc in January 2012. Capita plc was founded in 1984 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyCapita generates revenue primarily through the provision of outsourced services and solutions to both public and private sector clients. Its revenue model is based on long-term contracts, project-based work, and service-level agreements that ensure recurring income. Key revenue streams include customer management services, IT services, and consultancy fees. Capita also benefits from significant partnerships with various government agencies and private corporations, which enable it to secure substantial contracts and maintain a steady flow of income. The company's focus on digital transformation and technology integration allows it to create new service offerings that enhance its revenue potential.

Capita plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Capita plc faces several financial challenges, including declining revenue and negative cash flow. While there are some improvements in net income and equity, the high debt burden and cash flow issues remain significant risks.
Income Statement
Capita plc's income statement reveals a challenging financial performance. Recent results show declining revenue with a negative revenue growth rate. The company has struggled with profitability, evidenced by negative EBIT margins and fluctuating net profit margins, although there is some improvement in net income in the latest periods. Gross profit margins have been relatively stable but aren't sufficient to significantly boost overall profitability.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet analysis indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting significant leverage, which is a potential risk. However, there has been an improvement in stockholders' equity over the years, although it remains low compared to total liabilities. The equity ratio has shown some positive trends, indicating a slow recovery in equity levels.
Cash Flow
The company's cash flow statement shows ongoing challenges. Operating cash flow has been negative in recent years, indicating difficulties in generating cash from operations. Free cash flow has also been negative, and while there have been improvements in some periods, the overall trend poses concerns for liquidity and cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.34B2.42B2.81B3.01B3.18B3.32B
Gross Profit418.50M516.50M592.10M581.40M508.60M538.90M
EBITDA224.70M269.50M54.90M238.00M508.70M214.20M
Net Income16.20M76.70M-178.10M74.80M224.70M14.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.94B1.84B2.00B2.55B3.14B3.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments334.10M254.00M155.40M396.80M317.60M460.90M
Total Debt745.70M680.30M721.00M903.30M1.24B1.60B
Total Liabilities1.76B1.64B1.88B2.20B2.85B3.81B
Stockholders Equity182.30M199.90M113.00M330.20M274.50M-134.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-33.80M-75.30M-101.90M24.00M-237.20M308.90M
Operating Cash Flow-21.10M-25.20M-40.30M71.90M-179.10M396.30M
Investing Cash Flow146.40M201.20M9.70M344.10M422.40M-34.30M
Financing Cash Flow-29.20M-51.50M-76.30M-340.70M-259.70M-331.30M

Capita plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price405.50
Price Trends
50DMA
354.07
Positive
100DMA
316.65
Positive
200DMA
284.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
14.68
Positive
RSI
68.00
Neutral
STOCH
77.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 405.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 397.22, above the 50-day MA of 354.07, and above the 200-day MA of 284.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 14.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 68.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:CPI.

Capita plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
£2.18B21.8720.62%2.58%11.42%-17.18%
74
Outperform
£11.68B45.775.93%1.68%-1.58%-34.64%
73
Outperform
£2.85B61.095.21%1.27%0.84%-62.73%
66
Neutral
£358.74M38.564.01%2.31%6.90%145.00%
64
Neutral
£487.92M28.229.00%-4.87%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
63
Neutral
£2.35B156.180.36%-2.24%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CPI
Capita plc
405.50
204.80
102.04%
GB:MTO
Mitie Group plc
170.80
67.29
65.00%
GB:RTO
Rentokil Initial
465.50
97.16
26.38%
GB:RST
Restore
264.50
40.70
18.19%
GB:SRP
Serco Group plc
291.40
145.19
99.30%
GB:IWG
IWG plc
237.40
88.90
59.87%

Capita plc Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Discloses Monthly Share Purchase by Chief People Officer
Neutral
Jan 6, 2026

Capita plc has disclosed that its Chief People Officer, Scott Hill, has made a monthly purchase of ordinary shares in the company under the Capita Share Ownership Plan. The transaction, reported as an initial notification under regulatory requirements for persons discharging managerial responsibilities, underscores ongoing executive participation in the company’s employee share scheme and provides additional transparency to investors regarding insider dealings in Capita stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Buy with a £6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Confirms Total Voting Rights at 120 Million Shares
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

Capita plc has confirmed that, as of 31 December 2025, its issued share capital comprises 120,030,667 ordinary shares of 31 pence each, with each share carrying one voting right and no shares held in Treasury, resulting in a total of 120,030,667 voting rights. The company noted that this figure, which includes 267,094 shares held by the Capita Employee Benefit Trust and excluded from earnings-per-share calculations, should be used by shareholders as the reference denominator for determining disclosure obligations under the FCA’s transparency rules, clarifying the current ownership and voting structure for investors and regulators.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Buy with a £6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Executive Exercises Share Awards and Sells Portion to Cover Tax Liabilities
Neutral
Dec 22, 2025

Capita plc has disclosed a transaction by its Chief Communications and Corporate Affairs Officer, Nicole Dorskind, in line with UK Market Abuse Regulation requirements. Dorskind exercised nil-cost restricted share options granted under the Capita Executive Plan 2021, then sold a portion of the resulting ordinary shares to meet income tax and national insurance obligations, retaining the remaining balance, a routine senior executive dealing that marginally adjusts her equity exposure without indicating a broader change in the group’s capital structure or strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Buy with a £6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capita Wins £62m Renewal with Major European Telecoms Group
Positive
Dec 19, 2025

Capita’s Contact Centre business within its Capita Experience division has secured a four-year renewal of its contract with a major European telecommunications provider, worth £62m and starting in January 2026. The deal extends a partnership that began in 2014 and will see Capita continue to provide customer services across technical support, chat and messaging, and inbound sales, while expanding nearshore delivery operations in multiple European locations. The renewed framework agreement underscores Capita’s strategic emphasis on operational efficiency and AI-driven digital transformation, including the deployment of Centrical and other AI tools to enhance key performance metrics such as handling times, customer satisfaction and sales conversion, reinforcing its positioning as a technology-enabled outsourcer for large telecoms clients.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Buy with a £6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Confirms Admission of New Shares and Updates Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Dec 18, 2025

Capita plc has confirmed that 5,670,909 new ordinary shares of 31 pence each have been admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange, with dealings beginning at 8:00 a.m. on 18 December 2025. Following this admission, the company’s issued share capital stands at 120,030,667 ordinary shares with no treasury shares, meaning the total number of voting rights is now 120,030,667; shareholders are advised to use this figure when assessing whether they must disclose holdings or changes in interests under FCA transparency rules, clarifying the group’s updated capital structure and voting base.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Buy with a £6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Capita plc Exercises Settlement Option with Royal London
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025

Capita plc has exercised a settlement option related to its transition agreement with Royal London’s legacy business, resulting in the issuance of 5,670,909 ordinary shares to The Royal London Mutual Insurance Company Limited. This move settles an initial payment obligation of approximately £22.47 million and involves customary lock-up arrangements during a five-year migration period. The newly issued shares are expected to be admitted for trading on the London Stock Exchange on or around 18 December 2025, aligning with Capita’s strategic financial operations and potentially impacting its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Buy with a £6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Capita plc Reports Mixed Trading Performance and Strategic Progress in 2025
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025

Capita plc’s trading update for the 11 months ending November 2025 reveals mixed performance across its business units. While Capita Public Service saw a moderate growth of 4%, the Contact Centre division experienced an 18.3% revenue decline due to contract losses and reduced volumes, particularly in telecommunications. Pension Solutions showed slight growth, whereas Regulated Services faced a 14.3% reduction as part of a planned sector exit. The company has made significant strategic progress, achieving £250 million in annualized cost savings and advancing its AI initiatives, including launching the AI Catalyst Stack and Lab. Capita’s contract pipeline has grown significantly, with opportunities valued at £16.5 billion, highlighting its potential for future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £379.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Capita Exits Closed Book Life & Pensions Business with Royal London Agreement
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025

Capita plc has reached a transition agreement with Royal London to exit its closed book Life & Pensions business, a segment that has posed challenges for the company. This agreement involves Capita paying Royal London an initial sum of £22.47m, with an option for Royal London to receive this payment in shares. The migration of contracts back to Royal London is expected to take five years, with Capita anticipating a cash outflow of £20m annually during this period. This move is part of Capita’s ‘manage for value’ strategy, aiming to eliminate future cash outflows and focus on sustainable value areas.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £379.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita plc Announces Director Shareholding Transaction
Neutral
Dec 5, 2025

Capita plc has announced a transaction involving Scott Hill, the Chief People Officer, who has participated in a monthly share purchase under the Capita Share Ownership Plan. This notification is part of the company’s compliance with regulations requiring disclosure of transactions by individuals in managerial positions. The transaction involves the purchase of ordinary shares, which may impact the company’s shareholding structure and reflect confidence in the company’s future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita plc Updates Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

Capita plc has announced an update to its total voting rights, with its capital comprising 114,359,758 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote. This update is in line with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, and shareholders can use this figure to assess their interests in the company. Additionally, 295,199 shares held by the Capita Employee Benefit Trust are excluded from the company’s EPS calculation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capita Secures £33 Million Contract Extension with UK Financial Services Provider
Positive
Nov 27, 2025

Capita plc has secured a £33 million contract extension for three years with a leading UK financial services provider to continue offering essential contact centre services. This extension, starting in January 2026, highlights Capita’s commitment to delivering high-quality customer service, reinforcing its strong relationship with the client and enhancing its position in the market by supporting vulnerable customers towards financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Responds to Ofgem’s Proposed Cost Disallowance
Negative
Nov 7, 2025

Capita plc has responded to Ofgem’s announcement regarding a proposal to disallow £31.03 million in costs incurred by its subsidiary, Smart Data Communications Company (Smart DCC), for the regulatory year 2024/2025. This draft determination is part of the regular regulatory framework, but Capita expressed disappointment at the scale and retrospective nature of the disallowance. Smart DCC plans to engage with Ofgem to potentially reduce these costs before the final determination in February 2026. The company remains committed to efficiently operating Britain’s smart meter network and addressing energy affordability challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Other
Capita plc Announces Director Share Purchase
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Capita plc has announced a transaction involving Scott Hill, the Chief People Officer, who has made a monthly share purchase under the Capita Share Ownership Plan. This transaction reflects ongoing participation in the company’s share ownership scheme, which may indicate confidence in the company’s future prospects and align managerial interests with those of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita plc Updates Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

Capita plc has announced an update to its total voting rights, with its capital comprising 114,359,758 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, as of 31 October 2025. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their reporting obligations under the FCA’s rules. Additionally, 295,199 shares held by the Capita Employee Benefit Trust are excluded from the company’s EPS calculation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capita Extends Key Contract with Samsung UK to Enhance Customer Support
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

Capita plc has announced an extension of its contract with Samsung Electronics UK, continuing a partnership that began in 2011. The renewed contract will see Capita’s Contact Centre business provide ongoing customer support services, including technical voice support and social media management, for Samsung’s electronic product customers. The extension involves technological advancements such as migrating the telephony system to AWS Connect and implementing Capita’s GenAI-powered Agent Suite, aimed at enhancing customer and colleague experiences. This move aligns with Samsung’s mission to inspire consumer adoption of its innovative technology, reinforcing Capita’s strategy of integrating technology, people, and processes to deliver transformative client experiences.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Capita’s Jack Clarke to Join Zotefoams as Non-Executive Director
Neutral
Oct 24, 2025

Capita plc announced that Jack Clarke, an Independent Non-Executive Director and Chair of Capita’s Audit & Risk Committee, will be appointed as a Non-Executive Director of Zotefoams plc on 28 October 2025 and will assume the role of chair of its Audit Committee from 1 January 2026. This appointment highlights Capita’s strategic positioning and influence within the industry, potentially strengthening its ties with other market players and enhancing its corporate governance framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Hold with a £356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Settles with ICO Over 2023 Cyber Attack
Negative
Oct 15, 2025

Capita plc has reached a settlement with the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) concerning a cyber attack that occurred in March 2023, resulting in a £14 million penalty. The company has since enhanced its cybersecurity measures under new leadership and continues its transformation journey, aiming for a positive cash flow by the end of 2025, with no changes to its financial guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Buy with a £9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Capita plc Announces Director Shareholding Transaction
Neutral
Oct 9, 2025

Capita plc has announced a transaction involving Scott Hill, the Chief People Officer, as part of the company’s Share Ownership Plan. This notification reflects the ongoing commitment of Capita’s management to align their interests with those of shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPI) stock is a Buy with a £9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capita plc stock, see the GB:CPI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025