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Derwent London PLC REIT (GB:DLN)
LSE:DLN

Derwent London plc REIT (DLN) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:DLN

Derwent London plc REIT

(LSE:DLN)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
2,113.00p
▲(19.18% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:12/07/25
Derwent London plc's strong valuation and positive corporate events are the primary drivers of its score. Despite a bearish technical outlook, the company's financial stability and strategic initiatives in the real estate market support a cautiously optimistic view.
Positive Factors
Healthy balance sheet
A reasonable debt-to-equity mix and strong equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility for a REIT. This reduces refinancing risk, supports funding of developments and refurbishments, and helps absorb cyclical shocks to rental income, underpinning long-term stability.
Positive operating cash flow and strong gross margins
Consistently positive operating cash flow and robust gross margins reflect reliable rental income and efficient cost control. This cash generation supports recurring distributions, funds capex and development activity, and sustains the business through property cycles over months to years.
Operational momentum from corporate events
Leases secured above estimated rental value, low vacancies and partnerships improve long-term income potential and asset quality. Successful project completions and disposals enhance portfolio repositioning, boosting recurring rents and creating durable value from redevelopment capability.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent net income and free cash flow growth
Volatility in net income and uneven free cash flow growth reduce predictability of distributable earnings and complicate capital allocation. For a development-oriented REIT, this makes dividend planning and reinvestment pacing harder and raises sensitivity to market cycles.
Net profit margin volatility and historical losses
Significant swings in net income and volatile net margins undermine earnings quality. Despite improving EBIT, past losses and margin variability increase the risk of earnings reversals, impairments on investment property, and uneven return on equity over the medium term.
Modest revenue growth
Low single-digit revenue growth suggests limited organic top-line expansion from rents alone and greater reliance on value-accretive developments or disposals to lift returns. This constrains scalability of income and exposes performance to timing of asset recycling.

Derwent London plc REIT (DLN) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Derwent London plc REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDerwent London plc owns 83 buildings in a commercial real estate portfolio predominantly in central London valued at £5.4 billion (including joint ventures) as at 30 June 2020, making it the largest London-focused real estate investment trust (REIT). Our experienced team has a long track record of creating value throughout the property cycle by regenerating our buildings via development or refurbishment, effective asset management and capital recycling. We typically acquire central London properties off-market with low capital values and modest rents in improving locations, most of which are either in the West End or the Tech Belt. We capitalise on the unique qualities of each of our properties - taking a fresh approach to the regeneration of every building with a focus on anticipating tenant requirements and an emphasis on design. Reflecting and supporting our long-term success, the business has a strong balance sheet with modest leverage, a robust income stream and flexible financing. As part of our commitment to lead the industry in mitigating climate change, in October 2019, Derwent London became the first UK REIT to sign a Green Revolving Credit Facility. At the same time, we also launched our Green Finance Framework and signed the Better Buildings Partnership's climate change commitment. The Group is a member of the 'RE100' which recognises Derwent London as an influential company, committed to 100% renewable power by purchasing renewable energy, a key step in becoming a net zero carbon business. Derwent London is one of only a few property companies worldwide to have science-based carbon targets validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). Landmark schemes in our 5.6 million sq ft portfolio include 80 Charlotte Street W1, Brunel Building W2, White Collar Factory EC1, Angel Building EC1, 1-2 Stephen Street W1, Horseferry House SW1 and Tea Building E1. In 2019, the Group won several awards including EG Offices Company of the Year, the CoStar West End Deal of the Year for Brunel Building, Westminster Business Council's Best Achievement in Sustainability award and topped the real estate sector and was placed ninth overall in the Management Today 2019 awards for 'Britain's Most Admired Companies'. In 2013 the Company launched a voluntary Community Fund and has to date supported over 100 community projects in the West End and the Tech Belt. The Company is a public limited company, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange and incorporated and domiciled in the UK. The address of its registered office is 25 Savile Row, London,
How the Company Makes MoneyDerwent London generates revenue primarily through rental income from its diverse portfolio of commercial properties, which include office spaces, retail units, and mixed-use developments. The company leases its properties to a range of tenants, from large corporations to smaller businesses, ensuring a steady cash flow. Additionally, revenue is supplemented through property sales and development gains, particularly when properties are sold at a premium following successful redevelopment or refurbishment. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with key stakeholders, enhancing its market position and operational efficiency. Factors contributing to earnings include the demand for high-quality office space in prime locations, effective asset management, and the ability to adapt to changing market trends.

Derwent London plc REIT Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive strategic and operational picture: strong leasing and asset-management performance, an upgraded ERV outlook (+4% to +7% for 2026), a disciplined plan to recycle up to GBP 1bn of capital, healthy liquidity and a clear development pipeline with attractive IRRs (e.g., Baker Street 11.3%). However, near-term headwinds include higher finance costs after refinancing, a modest rise in vacancy, heavy near-term CapEx and a forecasted 3%–5% dip in 2026 EPRA earnings. Management nonetheless expects earnings growth from 2027 and substantial uplift by 2030, and the balance sheet is being managed conservatively while options (including buybacks) remain under review.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic portfolio positioning
High-quality portfolio with 75% located in the West End and 81% within a 10-minute walk of an Elizabeth line station, targeting strong submarkets and occupier demand.
Strong asset-management performance (record year)
Record asset-management transactions generating almost GBP 60 million of rental income in 2025 (GBP 59m cited), including GBP 37.4m of rent reviews securing >7% above previous rents and new lettings of GBP 11.3m at ~10% above ERV.
Improved ERV guidance for 2026
Management increased 2026 ERV guidance to +4% to +7% for the portfolio based on improving occupational and investment market dynamics.
Development pipeline delivering income
Major schemes: 25 Baker Street delivering ~GBP 18m net-effective annualized rent (GBP 22m headline) and an ungeared IRR of 11.3%; Network expected to deliver ~GBP 11m net-effective (GBP 13.7m headline) with IRR 8%–9%. These two projects expected to add ~GBP 18m of rental income in 2026 vs 2025.
Active capital recycling plan
Plan to dispose of up to GBP 1 billion over the next 3 years (versus historic ~GBP 200m pa) with GBP 216m sold in 2025 and contracts/exchanges and offers already progressed (c. GBP 140–145m exchanged YTD, further amounts under offer/negotiation). Management cites up to ~GBP 250m of potential excess capital from the program.
Balance sheet and liquidity strength
Cash and undrawn facilities increased to GBP 627m, Fitch retained A- senior unsecured rating, weighted average unexpired debt term 4.2 years and net debt-to-EBITDA reduced to 9x (target to remain below 9.5x).
EPRA NTA and total accounting return
EPRA NTA rose to 3,225p per share and the group delivered a 5% total accounting return for 2025; EPRA NTA uplift was reported at 2.4% over the year.
Operational momentum into 2026
Strong start to 2026 with GBP 1.5m of new leases completed, GBP 14.4m under offer (including Network), GBP 4.4m in negotiations, and active disposal pipeline supporting redeployment into higher return opportunities.
Negative Updates
Higher financing costs and impact on EPRA earnings
Weighted average interest rate increased to ~3.8% (from 3.3%) after refinancing; conversion of GBP 175m convertibles to 7-year bonds at 5.25% raised the weighted average rate by ~50 bps. Net finance costs rose in H2 and EPRA earnings fell to 98.4p per share (adjusted EPS 102.1p).
Near-term earnings pressure
2026 EPS guidance implies overall EPRA earnings ~3%–5% lower than 2025 (H1: 42p–44p; H2: 52p), with expecting a substantial step-up only by 2027 and more material uplift by 2030.
Higher vacancy and modest like-for-like rent growth
EPRA vacancy increased from 3.1% to 4.1% in 2025; like-for-like gross rents rose 2.4% only, and net property and other income was down GBP 1.7m versus 2024 (surrender premiums GBP 2.5m lower).
Large CapEx and short‑term earnings dilution from developments
CapEx in 2025 was GBP 182m (almost half at Network and 25 Baker Street); CapEx expected to be GBP 142m in 2026. West End projects (Holden House, Middlesex refurbishment) will reduce short-term earnings and additional voids exist at Page Street and 50 Baker Street.
Average debt higher year-on-year
Average debt was ~GBP 110m higher than in 2024, and the refinancing actions increased interest expense and reduced the amount of interest capitalised (management expects ~GBP 6m less interest to be capitalised in 2026 versus 2025).
Modest capital value conversion in 2025
Despite ~4% ERV growth (West End outperforming), capital growth was limited in 2025 (portfolio valuation uplift modest) after higher-than-normal deductions for CapEx and voids (equivalent to ~40p per share impact).
Share buybacks contingent and uncertain
Share buybacks are only being considered once disposals create surplus capital (management suggests waiting until several disposals are completed); no firm commitment and buybacks are not included in the 2030 guidance.
Timing and back‑loaded returns risk
Material earnings/return uplift is back‑ended (meaningful step-up expected by 2030), creating execution and timing risk between now and realization of redevelopment and letting gains.
Company Guidance
Derwent gave clear, returns‑focused guidance: 2026 ERVs are upgraded to +4% to +7% and 2026 EPRA earnings are guided at c.42–44p in H1 and 52p in H2 (overall ~3–5% below 2025 but H2 ~10% ahead of H2’25), with c.GBP18m more rental income from 25 Baker Street and Network; reversionary potential is GBP70.9m (pure reversion GBP15.9m). The group plans to recycle up to GBP1bn over the next 3 years (historic run‑rate ~GBP200m p.a.; GBP216m sold in 2025, ~GBP140–145m exchanged so far in 2026 with further c.GBP135–140m under offer and c.GBP100m in discussions), which could yield ~GBP250m of excess capital, while targeting net debt/EBITDA below 9.5x (currently c.9x and expected to fall), maintaining a strong balance sheet (cash & undrawn facilities GBP627m, weighted average debt term 4.2 years, 2025 average interest c.3.8%), and redeploying proceeds into selective developments (CapEx 2025: GBP182m; 2026 est: ~GBP142m), projects delivering attractive returns (25 Baker St ungeared IRR 11.3%, Network 8–9%, many schemes ≥10% IRR), record asset‑management income c.GBP59m in 2025, leasing momentum (GBP11.3m new leases in 2025 at ~10% above ERV; start of 2026: GBP1.5m completed, GBP14.4m under offer, GBP4.4m in negotiation), admin costs down GBP2.4m in 2025 with a further ~GBP2m saving targeted in 2026, and a continued dividend track record (18th consecutive year up, +1.2% this year).

Derwent London plc REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Derwent London plc REIT demonstrates financial stability and resilience with strong gross profit margins and a healthy balance sheet. However, challenges in maintaining consistent net income and free cash flow growth, likely due to external market conditions, temper the outlook.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The company shows signs of revenue stability with a modest growth rate in recent years. Gross profit margins have remained strong, although net profit margins have seen volatility due to significant swings in net income, likely driven by external factors impacting the real estate sector. The EBIT margin is improving, indicating better operational management, but historical losses create a mixed outlook.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet is healthy with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting that the company is not overly reliant on debt financing, which is a positive for stability. However, the return on equity has been inconsistent, impacted by fluctuating net incomes over the years.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Operating cash flows have been positive, which is a good sign of core business strength. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, reflecting capital investments and variable financing activities. The ratios of cash flow to net income are healthy, but the variability in net income suggests caution.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue267.80M271.70M267.80M249.00M240.30M266.90M
Gross Profit186.70M192.70M195.30M192.50M188.00M196.60M
EBITDA148.90M152.50M-438.00M-242.40M277.10M-55.50M
Net Income237.90M115.90M-476.40M-280.50M252.30M-77.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.33B5.21B5.03B5.51B5.91B5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments91.70M71.40M73.00M76.60M105.50M50.70M
Total Debt1.59B1.50B1.37B1.28B1.32B1.10B
Total Liabilities1.76B1.67B1.52B1.43B1.47B1.22B
Stockholders Equity3.58B3.54B3.51B4.08B4.44B4.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow80.00M-76.90M96.30M109.40M127.30M85.40M
Operating Cash Flow80.00M64.60M97.00M111.40M128.90M85.80M
Investing Cash Flow-173.30M-101.90M-98.00M-51.70M-240.00M-62.40M
Financing Cash Flow101.80M35.70M-2.60M-88.60M128.10M-27.20M

Derwent London plc REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1773.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1828.00
Negative
100DMA
1776.38
Negative
200DMA
1807.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-19.55
Positive
RSI
43.65
Neutral
STOCH
24.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1773 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1830.85, below the 50-day MA of 1828.00, and below the 200-day MA of 1807.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -19.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:DLN.

Derwent London plc REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
£4.01B9.016.14%5.85%-20.83%
72
Outperform
£1.99B12.646.80%3.93%2.30%
68
Neutral
£2.94B8.278.66%2.58%-0.04%655.16%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
64
Neutral
£1.37B9.647.31%2.52%12.73%
57
Neutral
£798.82M-10.52-5.20%7.31%-1.67%-120.18%
55
Neutral
£254.06M10.086.07%2.71%-14.09%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:DLN
Derwent London plc REIT
1,773.00
38.39
2.21%
GB:BLND
British Land Company plc
401.20
65.48
19.50%
GB:SHC
Shaftesbury Capital
151.00
31.52
26.38%
GB:GPE
Great Portland Estates plc R.E.I.T.
337.50
71.95
27.09%
GB:HLCL
Helical
207.00
23.81
13.00%
GB:WKP
Workspace Group plc R.E.I.T.
415.50
20.13
5.09%

Derwent London plc REIT Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Derwent London Confirms Total Voting Rights at 112.3 Million Shares
Neutral
Jan 30, 2026

Derwent London plc has confirmed that, as of 30 January 2026, its issued share capital comprises 112,290,929 ordinary shares of 5 pence each, all of which carry voting rights, with no shares held in treasury. This disclosure sets the official total of voting rights at 112,290,929, providing shareholders and market participants with the denominator needed to assess whether they must notify the Financial Conduct Authority of any holdings or changes in holdings under the UK’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, thereby supporting ongoing transparency in the company’s shareholder base and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DLN) stock is a Hold with a £2078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Derwent London plc REIT stock, see the GB:DLN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Derwent London Chief Executive Paul Williams to Retire After 38 Years with the Group
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026

Derwent London has announced that long-serving executive Paul Williams intends to retire as chief executive and step down from the board once a successor is appointed, bringing to a close a 38-year career at the group that culminated in his leadership role since 2019. The board, led by chairman Mark Breuer, has launched a formal process to identify his replacement, stressing that the company’s market-leading central London office portfolio, significant development pipeline and capital recycling strategy leave it well positioned to continue creating value for shareholders, while Williams has pledged to remain fully focused on driving performance during the transition period.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DLN) stock is a Buy with a £2095.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Derwent London plc REIT stock, see the GB:DLN Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Derwent London Confirms Total Voting Rights at Year-End
Neutral
Dec 31, 2025

Derwent London plc has confirmed that, as of 31 December 2025, its issued share capital comprises 112,290,929 ordinary shares of 5 pence each, all of which carry voting rights, with no shares held in treasury. This disclosure sets the official total number of voting rights in the company at 112,290,929, providing the benchmark figure shareholders must use to assess whether they are required to notify the Financial Conduct Authority of any holdings or changes in their interests under UK disclosure and transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DLN) stock is a Buy with a £1845.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Derwent London plc REIT stock, see the GB:DLN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Derwent London Secures Planning for Brixton Hotel Development
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

Derwent London has received planning permission for a hotel-led development at Blue Star House in Brixton, marking a significant step in its strategy to enhance portfolio value. The project, designed by GRID Architects, will include a 341-room hotel, office/commercial space, and public realm improvements, aligning with the company’s sustainable approach. This development is expected to support local regeneration, with construction set to begin in mid-2027 and completion anticipated by late 2029.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DLN) stock is a Buy with a £1845.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Derwent London plc REIT stock, see the GB:DLN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Derwent London Secures Long-Term Lease Extension with Burberry
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

Derwent London has extended its lease with Burberry at Horseferry House SW1 until 2043, enhancing its income visibility and increasing earnings by approximately £0.9 million annually. This agreement underscores a strong relationship with Burberry, one of Derwent’s largest occupiers, and reflects Burberry’s long-term commitment to its global headquarters, contributing to Derwent’s robust regear and renewal activities totaling £19.2 million this year.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DLN) stock is a Buy with a £1845.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Derwent London plc REIT stock, see the GB:DLN Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Derwent London Announces Current Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Nov 28, 2025

Derwent London plc announced that its issued share capital comprises 112,290,929 ordinary shares, each with voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, impacting how they manage their investments in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DLN) stock is a Buy with a £2460.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Derwent London plc REIT stock, see the GB:DLN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Derwent London Reports Strong Q3 Momentum and Positive Outlook
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Derwent London plc reports strong operational momentum in its third-quarter update, with new leases signed at 10% above estimated rental value (ERV) and a low vacancy rate of 3.7%. The company has completed over £200 million in disposals, enhancing its financial capacity for reinvestment into development projects, and is targeting further asset sales to optimize shareholder returns. Major projects like 25 Baker Street and Network W1 are progressing well, with significant leasing activity and development milestones achieved. The company’s strategic focus on capital recycling and asset management supports its confidence in the London office market’s strength, aiming for a 3-6% ERV growth in 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DLN) stock is a Hold with a £1943.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Derwent London plc REIT stock, see the GB:DLN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025