Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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Carnival

(LSE:CCL)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:

2,153.00p

▲(17.97% Upside)

Carnival's strong financial recovery and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. High leverage and neutral technical indicators are notable risks, while reasonable valuation supports the overall positive outlook.

Carnival (CCL) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

£26.81B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)529.29K

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7

Beta (1Y)1.60

Revenue Growth3.55%

EPS Growth56.77%

CountryUK

Employees115,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryLeisure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.07

Shares Outstanding188,483,860

10 Day Avg. Volume443,079

30 Day Avg. Volume529,293

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio>-0.01

Price to Book (P/B)3.16

Price to Sales (P/S)1.17

P/FCF Ratio22.51

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

£2,600.00

Price Target Upside42.47% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc is a global cruise company and one of the largest leisure travel companies in the world. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, the company operates a fleet of cruise ships under various brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and others. The company offers a variety of cruise experiences ranging from budget-friendly options to luxury voyages, catering to diverse customer preferences. In addition to cruise services, Carnival also provides land-based excursions and experiences, enhancing the overall travel experience for its guests.

How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of cruise tickets, which constitutes the largest portion of its earnings. Passengers pay for their cruise packages, which typically include accommodations, meals, and onboard entertainment. Additional revenue is derived from onboard spending, where guests purchase drinks, specialty dining, shore excursions, and merchandise during their voyages. The company also earns income from travel-related services and partnerships, including sales of travel insurance and land excursions. Significant partnerships with various travel agencies and online travel platforms help drive bookings and enhance visibility. Furthermore, Carnival has been focusing on cost controls and optimizing its operations to improve profitability, especially in the wake of industry challenges. Seasonal demand fluctuations and economic conditions also significantly impact the company's revenue streams.

Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 29, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Dec 19, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a strong overall performance for Carnival Corporation, with record-breaking financial results, successful new initiatives, and positive future booking trends. Operational execution and cost discipline were emphasized, along with strategic growth in key markets. However, challenges such as increased net interest expenses and anticipated cost increases in 2026 were acknowledged. Overall, the positive outcomes and strategic initiatives significantly outweighed the challenges.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record-Breaking Financial Performance

Achieved an all-time high net income of $2 billion, surpassing pre-pause benchmark by nearly 10%. Yields increased 4.6% on a same ship basis, and operating income and EBITDA reached the highest levels in nearly twenty years.

Strong Operational Execution and Cost Discipline

Unit costs beat guidance by 1.5 points due to continued cost discipline. Outperformance on revenue and costs alongside refinancing efforts enabled an increase in full-year guidance for the third time this year.

Significant Improvement in Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

ROIC reached 13% for the trailing twelve months, the first time since 2007 that returns have reached the teens, demonstrating fundamental improvements in operational performance.

Successful Launch of Celebration Key

Celebration Key opened to rave reviews, with nearly half a million guests passing through since late July. The grand opening generated almost 1.5 billion media impressions.

Positive Booking Trends

Booking trends have continued to improve, outpacing capacity growth at higher prices and setting a record for bookings made on sailings two years out.

Debt Reduction and Financial Fortress Rebuild

Reduced secured debt by nearly $2.5 billion and refinanced over $11 billion of debt this year. Net debt to EBITDA ratio improved from 4.3 times at the end of 2024 to 3.6 times at the end of 2025.

Strong Portfolio Performance in Key Markets

Significant presence in Alaska and Europe, with both regions performing incredibly well. The vast majority of capacity is at brands delivering double-digit returns.

Negative Updates

Increased Net Interest Expense

Net interest expense increased nearly 600% compared to 2019, although strong operational execution more than compensated for this.

Cost Increases Expected in 2026

Operating expenses for new destinations and increased dry dock work in 2026 are expected to impact overall year-over-year cost comparisons by about 1.5 points.

Loyalty Program Impact on Yields

Carnival Rewards program, starting in June 2026, is expected to impact yields by about half a point year-over-year.

Company Guidance

In the third quarter of 2025, Carnival Corporation achieved record-breaking financial results, with net income reaching an all-time high of $2 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by nearly 10%. This was accomplished despite a significant increase in net interest expenses compared to 2019. The company reported record revenues, yields, operating income, EBITDA, and customer deposits, with yields increasing by 4.6% on a same-ship basis and operating income and EBITDA attaining their highest unit levels in nearly two decades. Carnival also noted a 1.5-point beat on unit cost guidance due to continued cost discipline, and its ROIC reached 13% for the trailing twelve months, marking the first time since 2007 that returns have hit the teens. The company's leverage decreased to 3.6 times net debt to EBITDA, positioning it closer to investment-grade metrics. Looking forward, Carnival sees opportunities to further increase same-ship yields, close the value gap with land-based alternatives, and improve margins and returns. The company is optimistic about 2026, with nearly half of the year already booked at higher prices, and continues to benefit from the introduction of new assets like the Star Princess and Celebration Key, which are expected to enhance brand strength and guest experiences.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carnival's financial performance shows a recovery with improved profitability and strong cash flow management. However, the balance sheet remains heavily leveraged, posing risks if not managed carefully. The company needs to focus on deleveraging to strengthen its financial position further.

Income Statement

Positive

Carnival's income statement shows a significant recovery in revenue from the pandemic lows, with a TTM revenue of $25.4 billion up from $12.2 billion in 2022. Gross profit margin has improved to 35.7%, signaling operational efficiency. The net profit margin stands at 8.1%, reflecting a return to profitability after losses in previous years. However, the revenue growth rate of 1.6% between TTM and 2024 indicates a slower growth pace, and while margins are improving, they remain below pre-pandemic levels.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.09, indicating a leveraged position that could pose risks if interest rates rise. The equity ratio is 19.2%, which reflects a low proportion of equity in the capital structure. Return on equity is at 22.3%, showing efficient use of equity to generate profits. Despite these strengths, the high debt level remains a concern for long-term stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Carnival's cash flow shows positive signs, with a free cash flow growth of 53.0% from 2024 to TTM, indicating improved cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.48 suggests strong cash flow relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.97, highlighting effective cash management. These metrics point towards strong liquidity and cash flow management despite the high debt levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.97B	25.02B	21.59B	12.17B	1.91B	5.59B
Gross Profit	8.84B	9.38B	7.28B	412.00M	-2.75B	-2.65B
EBITDA	6.06B	6.23B	4.37B	-2.20B	-5.69B	-7.12B
Net Income	2.52B	1.92B	-74.00M	-6.09B	-9.50B	-10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	51.16B	48.28B	49.12B	51.70B	53.34B	53.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.15B	1.21B	2.42B	4.03B	9.14B	9.51B
Total Debt	28.65B	28.88B	31.89B	35.88B	34.61B	28.38B
Total Liabilities	41.16B	39.03B	42.24B	44.64B	41.20B	33.04B
Stockholders Equity	10.01B	9.25B	6.88B	7.06B	12.14B	20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.81B	1.30B	997.00M	-6.61B	-7.72B	-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow	5.43B	5.92B	4.28B	-1.67B	-4.11B	-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.34B	-4.54B	-2.81B	-4.77B	-3.54B	-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.61B	-2.58B	-5.09B	3.58B	6.95B	18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price1825.00

Price Trends

50DMA

2015.12

Negative

100DMA

1989.07

Negative

200DMA

1764.17

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-32.20

Positive

RSI

36.05

Neutral

STOCH

13.80

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1825 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1946.20, below the 50-day MA of 2015.12, and above the 200-day MA of 1764.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -32.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTB	73 Outperform	£4.79B	19.58	7.52%	3.41%	-2.12%	8.95%
JD	71 Outperform	£4.30B	8.68	19.64%	1.19%	14.60%	58.84%
CCL	68 Neutral	£26.81B	12.73	25.66%	―	3.55%	56.77%
IHG	68 Neutral	£14.07B	25.26	―	1.36%	5.55%	19.27%
JET2	65 Neutral	$2.48B	6.16	29.72%	1.26%	14.68%	11.76%
TW	65 Neutral	£3.71B	43.71	1.97%	9.01%	4.21%	-65.57%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GB:CCL

Carnival

1,825.00

145.00

8.63%

GB:JET2

Jet2 PLC

1,312.00

-205.63

-13.55%

GB:IHG

InterContinental Hotels

9,518.00

399.56

4.38%

GB:WTB

Whitbread

2,843.00

-86.59

-2.96%

GB:TW

Taylor Wimpey

103.50

-22.53

-17.88%

GB:JD

JD Sports Fashion

83.76

-35.58

-29.81%

Carnival Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures

Carnival Corporation Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Positive

Sep 29, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has released its quarterly financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting an increase in total revenues and net income compared to the previous year. The company reported total revenues of $8.153 billion for the three months ended August 31, 2025, up from $7.896 billion in the same period in 2024, and a net income of $1.852 billion, an increase from $1.735 billion. This financial performance underscores Carnival’s strong recovery and growth in the cruise industry, reflecting improved passenger ticket sales and onboard revenues. The results are expected to positively impact the company’s market position and provide confidence to stakeholders about its financial health and operational resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Buy with a £2254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures

Carnival Corporation to Discuss Q3 Earnings in Upcoming Call

Neutral

Sep 15, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced a scheduled conference call with analysts on September 29, 2025, to discuss their third-quarter financial results. This event reflects the company’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market position and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Buy with a £2254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance

Carnival plc Updates Voting Rights and Capital Structure

Neutral

Sep 5, 2025

Carnival plc, a major player in the cruise industry, announced updates regarding its voting rights and capital structure. As of August 31, 2025, the company has 217,411,094 issued ordinary shares, with 145,607,591 shares carrying voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Buy with a £2254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Carnival Corporation Announces Redemption of Unsecured Notes

Neutral

Aug 19, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the redemption of its remaining outstanding principal amount of 5.750% unsecured notes due 2027, which is set to occur on August 29, 2025. This financial maneuver is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its debt, potentially impacting its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Buy with a £2254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance

Carnival plc Updates on Voting Rights and Capital Structure

Neutral

Aug 7, 2025

Carnival plc has announced its current voting rights and capital structure, revealing a total of 145,606,861 voting rights as of July 31, 2025. This information is crucial for shareholders and those with notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, as it affects how they calculate their interests in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Other

Carnival Corporation Director Sells Shares in Routine Transaction

Neutral

Aug 6, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced a transaction involving the sale of 12,500 shares of common stock by Director Sir Jonathon Band at a price of $29.7530 per share on the NYSE. This transaction is part of the company’s routine financial operations and may influence investor perceptions regarding the company’s stock performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025