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Carnival Plc (UK) (GB:CCL)
:CCL

Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Carnival

(LSE:CCL)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
2,136.00p
▲(8.26%Upside)
Carnival Corporation's overall score reflects its strong recovery in financial performance and the positive sentiment from recent earnings and corporate actions. While technical indicators show bullish momentum, the high leverage and lack of dividend yield moderate the overall score. The earnings call and corporate events significantly boost investor confidence.

Carnival (CCL) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival Corporation makes money primarily through the sale of cruise tickets and onboard services. The company's revenue model is built on three main streams: passenger ticket sales, onboard and other revenues, and tour and transportation services. Passenger ticket sales are the largest revenue generator, accounting for a significant portion of the company's income as travelers purchase tickets for cruise vacations. Onboard and other revenues include sales from amenities such as dining, beverages, spa treatments, casino gaming, and excursions at ports of call. Additionally, Carnival earns income from its air and land transportation services linked to cruise vacations. Key partnerships with travel agencies, tour operators, and destination services also contribute to its earnings, alongside strategic marketing and promotions to attract a wide demographic of passengers.

Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 28.08%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance with record-breaking revenue and successful strategic initiatives significantly outweighing concerns over geopolitical impacts and increased costs. The sentiment remains positive as the company continues to exceed its targets and enhance customer experiences.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Earnings Growth
Carnival Corporation achieved record revenues for eight consecutive quarters, with EBITDA up 26%, operating income up 67%, and net income more than tripled year-over-year. Margins reached the highest levels in nearly twenty years.
Exceeded 2026 Targets Ahead of Schedule
The company surpassed its 2026 targets for EBITDA per ALBD growth and return on invested capital (ROIC) by 18 months, achieving a 52% increase in EBITDA per ALBD and a ROIC of 12.5%.
Strong Booking and Yield Growth
Customer deposits reached an all-time high, and yield expectations for the remainder of the year were reaffirmed, with a projected 16% increase in yields across 2024 and 2025.
New Cruise Destinations and Upgrades
New destinations such as Celebration Key and Relax Away Half Moon Cay are set to enhance the cruise experience. The Aida Evolution program is also upgrading ships, leading to significant demand and positive guest feedback.
Debt Refinancing and Improved Leverage
Carnival prepaid $350 million of notes due 2026, reducing net interest expense and improving the net debt to EBITDA ratio from 4.1x to 3.7x. The company is on track to achieve investment-grade leverage metrics.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical Concerns
Uncertainties due to the conflict in the Middle East could potentially impact future business, although no immediate effects have been observed yet.
Higher Cruise Costs in Q3
Third-quarter cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to be up 7%, driven by the introduction of Celebration Key, one-time items, higher advertising expenses, and lower capacity.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025 earnings call, Carnival Corporation reported a series of remarkable financial achievements, including record revenues and yields for the eighth consecutive quarter. The company set new highs for EBITDA and operating income, both in total and on a per Available Lower Berth Day (ALBD) basis. Year-over-year, EBITDA increased by 26%, operating income rose by 67%, and net income more than tripled, surpassing guidance by $185 million. Yields grew by nearly 6.5%, outperforming guidance by 200 basis points. Carnival also achieved a 200-basis-point improvement in unit costs, and EBITDA margins surpassed 2019 levels by 200 basis points, marking the highest margins in nearly two decades. The company exceeded its 2026 targets for EBITDA growth and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) 18 months ahead of schedule, with ROIC reaching 12.5%. Additionally, Carnival met its carbon intensity reduction target, highlighting its commitment to sustainability. The company plans to set new targets in 2025, driven by continued strong demand and strategic investments in its cruise offerings.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carnival's financial performance shows a recovery in revenue and profitability, with strong cash flow management. However, the company's high debt levels pose a long-term risk if not managed properly.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Carnival's income statement shows a significant recovery in revenue from the pandemic lows, with a TTM revenue of $25.4 billion up from $12.2 billion in 2022. Gross profit margin has improved to 35.7%, signaling operational efficiency. The net profit margin stands at 8.1%, reflecting a return to profitability after losses in previous years. However, the revenue growth rate of 1.6% between TTM and 2024 indicates a slower growth pace, and while margins are improving, they remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.09, indicating a leveraged position that could pose risks if interest rates rise. The equity ratio is 19.2%, which reflects a low proportion of equity in the capital structure. Return on equity is at 22.3%, showing efficient use of equity to generate profits. Despite these strengths, the high debt level remains a concern for long-term stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Carnival's cash flow shows positive signs, with a free cash flow growth of 53.0% from 2024 to TTM, indicating improved cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.48 suggests strong cash flow relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.97, highlighting effective cash management. These metrics point towards strong liquidity and cash flow management despite the high debt levels.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.43B25.02B21.59B12.17B1.91B5.59B
Gross Profit9.07B9.38B7.28B412.00M-2.75B-2.65B
EBITDA6.32B6.23B4.37B-2.20B-5.69B-7.12B
Net Income2.05B1.92B-74.00M-6.09B-9.50B-10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets47.71B48.28B49.12B51.70B53.34B53.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments833.00M1.21B2.42B4.03B9.14B9.51B
Total Debt28.39B28.88B31.89B35.88B34.61B28.38B
Total Liabilities38.53B39.03B42.24B44.64B41.20B33.04B
Stockholders Equity9.18B9.25B6.88B7.06B12.14B20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.99B1.30B997.00M-6.61B-7.72B-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow5.08B5.92B4.28B-1.67B-4.11B-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow-2.98B-4.54B-2.81B-4.77B-3.54B-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow-3.51B-2.58B-5.09B3.58B6.95B18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1973.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1555.06
Positive
100DMA
1515.38
Positive
200DMA
1600.46
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
111.73
Negative
RSI
76.06
Negative
STOCH
96.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1973 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1693.53, above the 50-day MA of 1555.06, and above the 200-day MA of 1600.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 111.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBJD
77
Outperform
£4.58B9.4718.22%1.08%2.85%61.98%
GBCCL
77
Outperform
£28.50B13.8430.56%8.40%172.06%
65
Neutral
€21.52B12.887.21%3.39%0.31%-40.22%
$5.07B7.9729.34%0.91%
GBIHG
71
Outperform
£13.19B28.15-27.16%1.14%3.55%-14.32%
GBWTB
70
Outperform
£5.11B20.747.40%3.02%3.75%-22.77%
GBTW
70
Outperform
£4.06B18.504.92%5.96%-3.22%-37.21%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CCL
Carnival
1,973.00
741.50
60.21%
DRTGF
Jet2 PLC
24.00
7.30
43.71%
GB:IHG
InterContinental Hotels
8,660.00
724.39
9.13%
GB:WTB
Whitbread
2,934.00
92.96
3.27%
GB:TW
Taylor Wimpey
113.05
-29.24
-20.55%
GB:JD
JD Sports Fashion
90.04
-22.31
-19.86%

Carnival Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Announces €1.0 Billion Notes Offering to Strengthen Financial Structure
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has announced the pricing of its €1.0 billion 4.125% senior unsecured notes offering, with proceeds aimed at repaying existing borrowings under its senior secured term loan facilities. This strategic move is part of Carnival’s ongoing efforts to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure, thereby enhancing its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Sell with a £15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Launches €1 Billion Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the launch of a private offering of new senior unsecured notes amounting to €1.0 billion, expected to mature in 2031. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debts, enhancing the company’s financial structure and potentially improving its credit profile with investment-grade covenants. This strategic financial move aims to strengthen Carnival’s position in the cruise industry by optimizing its capital structure and addressing its debt obligations, which could have significant implications for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Sell with a £12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation & plc Reports Strong Financial Performance in First Half of 2025
Positive
Jun 26, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has released its joint Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the second quarter of 2025, along with the Carnival plc Group’s half-yearly financial report. The reports reveal that Carnival has seen an increase in revenues and operating income compared to the previous year, with a net income of $142 million for the first half of 2025. The financial statements have been prepared under both U.S. GAAP and UK-adopted International Financial Reporting Standards, reflecting the company’s dual listing arrangement. This financial performance indicates a positive trajectory for Carnival, potentially strengthening its position in the cruise industry and offering reassurance to stakeholders about its operational stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation Surpasses Financial Targets with Record Q2 Results
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc reported record-breaking second quarter 2025 financial results, surpassing its 2026 SEA Change financial targets 18 months ahead of schedule. The company achieved significant improvements in net income, operating income, and customer deposits, driven by strong demand and onboard spending. Carnival also extended its revolver capacity and improved its credit ratings, reflecting its robust financial management. The company’s strategic focus on delivering high-margin revenue growth and enhancing operational efficiency positions it well for future success.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Sell with a £15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation Schedules Q2 Earnings Call
Neutral
Jun 13, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced it will hold a conference call on June 24, 2025, to discuss its second quarter financial results. This call is significant for analysts and stakeholders as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and potentially impact its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Updates Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

Carnival plc announced its updated voting rights and capital structure as of May 31, 2025. The company has 145,601,779 voting rights available, which shareholders can use to assess their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules. This update is crucial for stakeholders to understand their influence and obligations within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Closes $1 Billion Notes Offering to Reduce Debt Costs
Positive
May 22, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has successfully closed a $1.0 billion offering of 5.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031, using the proceeds to redeem $993 million of 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026. This strategic move aims to reduce interest expenses by over $20 million and manage future debt maturities, reinforcing the company’s financial stability and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Announces $1 Billion Notes Offering for Debt Refinancing
Positive
May 13, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the pricing of a $1.0 billion offering of 5.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031, aimed at refinancing and reducing interest expenses. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, aligning with the company’s strategy to manage debt maturities and reduce interest expenses by over $20 million annually. This move is expected to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and improve its debt profile, potentially benefiting stakeholders by strengthening Carnival’s market positioning in the cruise industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Redeems $993 Million Notes and Launches New Offering
Positive
May 12, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the redemption of its existing $993 million 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026 and the launch of a new $1.0 billion senior unsecured notes offering expected to mature in 2031. This strategic move aims to reduce interest expenses and manage future debt maturities, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and providing stability in the cruise industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Updates on Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
May 7, 2025

Carnival plc announced that as of April 30, 2025, it has 217,406,012 issued ordinary shares, with 145,601,779 shares carrying voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders and others with notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules to determine their interest or changes in their interest in the company.

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation Announces Director Stock Transactions
Neutral
Apr 24, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the vesting of time-based restricted stock units (TBS RSUs) for Director Josh Weinstein. The transaction involved the vesting of 56,039 common stock shares with a nominal value of $0.01 per share, which were granted on April 8, 2024. Additionally, 22,052 shares were withheld by the company to cover taxes associated with the TBS RSUs. These transactions, conducted off-market, reflect internal financial management and compensation practices, potentially impacting the company’s stock management and tax strategies.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Announces Partial Redemption of Senior Unsecured Notes
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the partial redemption of $350 million of its $1.4 billion 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, as part of its strategy to deleverage and reduce interest expenses. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position, which could positively impact its operations and market standing.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Grants Unrestricted Shares to Directors
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the grant of unrestricted shares to its non-executive directors under the 2020 Stock Plan. Each director, including Sir Jonathon Band, Jason Glen Cahilly, Nelda J. Connors, Helen Deeble, and Jeffrey J. Gearhart, received shares valued at $195,000, determined by the average closing prices of Carnival’s common stock over ten trading days. This move aligns with Carnival’s strategy to incentivize its leadership and aligns their interests with shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder confidence.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Announces Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025

Carnival plc has announced its current voting rights and capital structure as of March 31, 2025. The company has a total of 217,406,012 issued ordinary shares, with 145,379,374 shares carrying voting rights. This announcement is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to assess their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025