Carnival (GB:CCL)
LSE:CCL
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Carnival
(LSE:CCL)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
2,178.00 p
â–²(6.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is supported by a strong post-downturn profitability and cash-flow recovery, but capped by still-elevated leverage and clearly weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is also a headwind (high P/E with low yield), while the latest earnings call was broadly positive on demand and capital-return plans but tempered by significant fuel and cost risks in guidance.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow Generation
Carnival has re-established durable cash generation with TTM operating cash flow of about $6.6B and FCF ~$3.0B. Reliable free cash flow supports sustained debt paydown, reinvestment and the company’s capital-return targets, improving strategic optionality over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Although leverage has improved since 2022, total debt of about $26.5B and meaningful debt-to-equity leave the capital structure relatively heavy. Persistent leverage increases sensitivity to demand shocks and refinancing/interest-rate risk, constraining long-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Generation
Carnival has re-established durable cash generation with TTM operating cash flow of about $6.6B and FCF ~$3.0B. Reliable free cash flow supports sustained debt paydown, reinvestment and the company’s capital-return targets, improving strategic optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Carnival (CCL) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£28.70B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)529.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.4
Beta (1Y)1.69
Revenue Growth3.46%
EPS Growth33.88%
CountryUK
Employees115,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding189,015,640
10 Day Avg. Volume443,079
30 Day Avg. Volume529,293
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)2.55
Price to Sales (P/S)1.18
P/FCF Ratio12.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£2,466.28Price Target Upside21.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)£20.96B
Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cr...
How the Company Makes Money
Carnival primarily makes money by selling cruise vacations and generating onboard spending from guests. Its core revenue stream is passenger ticket revenue, which comes from selling cruise fares across its brands and itineraries; these fares gener...
Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and commercial performance: record Q1 results, stronger yields, robust bookings (+10% YoY), nearly $8 billion in customer deposits, and meaningful operational/fuel-efficiency gains. Management raised near-term guidance operationally and introduced an ambitious PROPEL plan (ROIC >16%, >50% EPS growth vs 2025, >40% cash returns) supported by disciplined capacity, destination monetization and a $2.5 billion buyback authorization. The principal near-term negatives are significant fuel price volatility (material headwind of ~$500M / $0.38 per share embedded in guidance), elevated cost trends and geopolitical uncertainty impacting regional demand. Overall, the strength in demand, margin improvement levers and clear capital-return framework outweigh the headwinds tied to fuel and macro uncertainty.Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Results
Q1 net income of $275 million, more than 55% higher year-over-year; results beat December guidance by $40 million (≈ $0.03 per share). Company reported record first-quarter revenues, net yields, operating income, EBITDA and customer deposits.
Negative Updates
Significant Fuel Headwind and Price Volatility
Management cited a roughly $500 million fuel headwind and the March guidance embeds a $0.38 per share headwind from higher fuel prices. Guidance assumptions rely on specific Brent averages for coming quarters and fuel volatility remains a material risk to earnings.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First Quarter Results
Q1 net income of $275 million, more than 55% higher year-over-year; results beat December guidance by $40 million (≈ $0.03 per share). Company reported record first-quarter revenues, net yields, operating income, EBITDA and customer deposits.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carnival's March full‑year guidance calls for EPS of $2.21 and reflects Q1 outperformance (Q1 net income $275M, Q1 yields +2.7% YoY, Q1 cruise costs w/o fuel per ALBD +5.3% YoY, Q1 fuel consumption -4.7%), incorporating an aggregate $0.11 per‑share operational improvement ($0.07 realized in Q1 plus $0.04 expected in the remaining quarters); that operational gain is more than offset in 2026 guidance by a $0.38 per‑share fuel headwind based on assumed Brent of $90/bbl for Apr–May, $85/bbl in Q3 and $80/bbl in Q4 (a 10% move in fuel cost/mt changes results by ~$160M or $0.11/share). The company assumes net yield growth of ~2.75% for 2026 (≈3.25% on a normalized basis) and cruise costs w/o fuel per ALBD up ~3.1% (≈2.3% normalized), notes ~85% of 2026 is booked with current‑year bookings +10% YoY and nearly $8B of customer deposits, and lays out PROPEL targets to 2029: ROIC >16%, EPS growth >50% vs 2025, distribution of >40% of operating cash (≈$14B) to shareholders, net debt/EBITDA ~2.75x, >25% GHG intensity reduction vs 2019, >$15B reinvestment, and an initial $2.5B buyback authorization.Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.94B | 26.62B | 25.02B | 21.59B | 12.17B | 1.91B |
| Gross Profit | 8.01B | 7.88B | 9.38B | 7.28B | 412.00M | -2.75B |
| EBITDA | 7.06B | 6.91B | 6.23B | 4.37B | -2.20B | -5.69B |
| Net Income | 3.09B | 2.76B | 1.92B | -74.00M | -6.09B | -9.50B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 51.42B | 51.64B | 48.28B | 49.12B | 51.70B | 53.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.42B | 1.93B | 1.21B | 2.42B | 4.03B | 9.14B |
| Total Debt | 26.53B | 27.97B | 28.88B | 31.89B | 35.88B | 34.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.41B | 39.37B | 39.03B | 42.24B | 44.64B | 41.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.99B | 12.27B | 9.25B | 6.88B | 7.06B | 12.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.01B | 2.61B | 1.30B | 997.00M | -6.61B | -7.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.59B | 6.22B | 5.92B | 4.28B | -1.67B | -4.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.32B | -3.32B | -4.54B | -2.81B | -4.77B | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.68B | -2.19B | -2.58B | -5.09B | 3.58B | 6.95B |
Carnival Technical Analysis
Positive
2036.00
Price Trends
2109.08
Negative
2069.96
Negative
2030.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-25.94
Negative
54.12
Neutral
62.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2036 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1892.70, below the 50-day MA of 2109.08, and above the 200-day MA of 2030.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -25.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:CCL.
Carnival Risk Analysis
Carnival disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | £2.20B | 1.18 | 24.73% | 1.18% | 7.17% | -2.22% | |
69 Neutral | $20.80B | 28.60 | -23.50% | 1.23% | 5.55% | 19.27% | |
66 Neutral | £4.12B | 6.31 | 7.68% | 3.80% | -2.12% | 8.95% | |
64 Neutral | £247.50M | 15.55 | 5.43% | 1.39% | -5.30% | -30.17% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | £28.70B | 42.42 | 26.22% | ― | 3.46% | 33.88% | |
54 Neutral | £694.81M | 56.99 | 4.65% | 1.84% | 6.14% | 1.27% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GB:CCL
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Carnival Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Updates Market on Share Capital and Voting Rights
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
Carnival plc has updated the market on its share capital and voting rights position as of 31 March 2026, confirming it has 217,413,915 issued ordinary shares, of which 28,398,278 are held in treasury and 42,876,272 held by Carnival Corporation are...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Reports Updated Share Usage Under Employee Stock Purchase Plan
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
Carnival plc reported activity under its 2005 Employee Stock Purchase Plan for the period from 1 October 2025 to 31 March 2026. The company disclosed that 2,821 shares were issued to participants, reducing the remaining pool of unallotted securiti...
Other
Carnival Leaves Employee Share Plan Balance Unchanged
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
Carnival plc reported that under its 2014 Employee Share Plan, the balance of unallotted securities remained unchanged at 400,625 shares for the period from 1 October 2025 to 31 March 2026. No new securities were issued or allotted and the block s...
Other
Carnival Director Sir Jonathon Band Sells 12,000 Shares in Insider Transactions
Neutral
Apr 2, 2026
Carnival Corporation plc disclosed that director Sir Jonathon Band executed sales of company common stock on the New York Stock Exchange. The transactions, conducted in two tranches on March 31 and April 1, 2026, involved the sale of a total of 1...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Returns to Profit in First Quarter as Revenue and Cash Flow Strengthen
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
Carnival Corporation plc reported unaudited first‑quarter 2026 results, showing a return to profitability with net income attributable to the company of $258 million versus a $78 million loss a year earlier, on revenue that rose to $6.17 bi...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Carnival to Delist Certain Debt From NYSE and LSE, Shift Listings to TISE Ahead of Corporate Unification
Neutral
Mar 20, 2026
Carnival Corporation plc plans to voluntarily delist its 1.000% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2029 from the New York Stock Exchange and its 7.875% Debentures due 2027 from the London Stock Exchange, having already relisted both instruments on The In...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Carnival Sets March 27 Call to Review First‑Quarter Earnings
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
Carnival Corporation plc will hold a conference call with analysts on March 27, 2026, to discuss its first‑quarter financial results, which are scheduled for release earlier that day. The call will be simulcast via the company’s corpo...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Totals
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
Carnival plc has confirmed that, as of 28 February 2026, it had 217,413,915 issued ordinary shares, of which 28,398,278 are held in treasury and 42,876,272 held by Carnival Corporation do not carry voting rights. This results in 146,139,365 voting...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Files 2025 Annual Report for Public Inspection
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Carnival Corporation plc has published its Carnival plc 2025 Annual Report and submitted it to the U.K. National Storage Mechanism, where it will be available for public inspection alongside digital access via the company’s corporate websit...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Carnival Sets Sterling Exchange Rate for February 2026 Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Carnival Corporation plc has confirmed the exchange rate for its previously announced quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. Holders of Carnival Corporation com...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Carnival plc reported that as of 31 January 2026 it had 217,413,915 issued ordinary shares, of which 28,927,231 are held in treasury and 188,486,684 are issued and outstanding. Of these, 42,876,272 shares held by Carnival Corporation carry no voti...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Files 2025 Annual Report, Reinstates Dividend and Seeks Buyback Authority After Record Year
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
Carnival Corporation plc has filed its joint 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming that its audited U.S. GAAP financial statements are unchanged from the strong fourth-quarter and full-year r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.