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Carnival Plc (UK) (GB:CCL)
:CCL
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Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:CCL

Carnival

(LSE:CCL)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
2,254.00p
▲(5.52% Upside)
Carnival's overall stock score reflects strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators. The company's recovery is evident in its financials, but high leverage remains a concern. The stock's valuation is reasonable, and the earnings call provided a positive outlook despite some potential challenges.

Carnival (CCL) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of cruise tickets, which constitutes the largest portion of its earnings. Passengers pay for their cruise packages, which typically include accommodations, meals, and onboard entertainment. Additional revenue is derived from onboard spending, where guests purchase drinks, specialty dining, shore excursions, and merchandise during their voyages. The company also earns income from travel-related services and partnerships, including sales of travel insurance and land excursions. Significant partnerships with various travel agencies and online travel platforms help drive bookings and enhance visibility. Furthermore, Carnival has been focusing on cost controls and optimizing its operations to improve profitability, especially in the wake of industry challenges. Seasonal demand fluctuations and economic conditions also significantly impact the company's revenue streams.

Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Carnival's strong financial performance, successful strategic initiatives, and improved financial positioning. However, it also acknowledges the potential challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and the initial impact of a new loyalty program on yields.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenues and Financial Performance
Achieved record revenues for eight consecutive quarters with second quarter highs for EBITDA and operating income. Year over year, EBITDA was up 26%, operating income increased by 67%, and net income more than tripled.
Exceeded 2026 Financial Targets
Met and exceeded 2026 targets for EBITDA per ALBD growth and ROIC 18 months ahead of schedule, with EBITDA per birthday 52% above the 2023 baseline and ROIC surpassing 12.5%.
Strong Customer Deposits and Yield Growth
Customer deposits reached an all-time high, with yields growing by almost 6.5%, beating guidance by 200 basis points.
Successful Debt Refinancing and Financial Fortification
Prepaid $350 million of notes, refinanced debt at favorable rates, and improved net debt to EBITDA ratio from 4.1x to 3.7x.
Successful Launch of New Loyalty and Private Island Programs
Announced a new loyalty program 'Carnival Rewards' starting in June 2026 and the upcoming launch of Celebration Key as a major cruise destination.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical and Economic Volatility
Acknowledged potential impacts from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic uncertainties affecting future business projections.
Higher Cruise Costs in Third Quarter
Expected 7% increase in cruise costs without fuel per ALBD in the third quarter, driven by new destination expenses and other factors.
Impact of Loyalty Program on 2026 Yields
The new loyalty program expected to negatively impact yields by approximately half a point in 2026 due to revenue deferral.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, Carnival Corporation reported a series of record-breaking financial metrics. The company achieved its highest ever second-quarter operating results, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of record revenues and yields. EBITDA was up 26% year-over-year, and operating income increased by 67%, with net income more than tripling compared to the previous year. Notably, net income exceeded guidance by $185 million, driven by yields that grew by almost 6.5%, surpassing guidance by 200 basis points. Unit costs also came in 200 basis points better than expected. Carnival's EBITDA margins were 200 basis points higher than in 2019, achieving the highest margins in nearly two decades. Additionally, the company met its 2026 targets for 50% EBITDA per available lower berth day (ALBD) growth and over 12.5% return on invested capital (ROIC) ahead of schedule. The company also reported a 20% reduction in carbon intensity compared to 2019. Looking forward, Carnival plans to set new targets and anticipates yield growth of 16% across 2024 and 2025, with strong booking positions and historically high prices.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carnival's financial performance shows a recovery with improved profitability and strong cash flow management. However, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, posing risks if interest rates rise. The company needs to focus on deleveraging to strengthen its financial position.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Carnival's income statement shows a significant recovery in revenue from the pandemic lows, with a TTM revenue of $25.4 billion up from $12.2 billion in 2022. Gross profit margin has improved to 35.7%, signaling operational efficiency. The net profit margin stands at 8.1%, reflecting a return to profitability after losses in previous years. However, the revenue growth rate of 1.6% between TTM and 2024 indicates a slower growth pace, and while margins are improving, they remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.09, indicating a leveraged position that could pose risks if interest rates rise. The equity ratio is 19.2%, which reflects a low proportion of equity in the capital structure. Return on equity is at 22.3%, showing efficient use of equity to generate profits. Despite these strengths, the high debt level remains a concern for long-term stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Carnival's cash flow shows positive signs, with a free cash flow growth of 53.0% from 2024 to TTM, indicating improved cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.48 suggests strong cash flow relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.97, highlighting effective cash management. These metrics point towards strong liquidity and cash flow management despite the high debt levels.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.43B25.02B21.59B12.17B1.91B5.59B
Gross Profit9.07B9.38B7.28B412.00M-2.75B-2.65B
EBITDA6.32B6.23B4.37B-2.20B-5.69B-7.12B
Net Income2.05B1.92B-74.00M-6.09B-9.50B-10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets47.71B48.28B49.12B51.70B53.34B53.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments833.00M1.21B2.42B4.03B9.14B9.51B
Total Debt28.39B28.88B31.89B35.88B34.61B28.38B
Total Liabilities38.53B39.03B42.24B44.64B41.20B33.04B
Stockholders Equity9.18B9.25B6.88B7.06B12.14B20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.99B1.30B997.00M-6.61B-7.72B-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow5.08B5.92B4.28B-1.67B-4.11B-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow-2.98B-4.54B-2.81B-4.77B-3.54B-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow-3.51B-2.58B-5.09B3.58B6.95B18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2136.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2023.18
Positive
100DMA
1748.90
Positive
200DMA
1727.20
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
43.84
Positive
RSI
59.31
Neutral
STOCH
62.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2136 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2079.03, above the 50-day MA of 2023.18, and above the 200-day MA of 1727.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 43.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£4.84B10.0718.22%1.06%8.69%-9.09%
71
Outperform
£30.37B14.9830.56%8.40%172.06%
61
Neutral
$17.99B12.87-3.58%2.97%1.27%-14.28%
$3.72B8.0029.72%0.92%
73
Outperform
£5.36B21.937.40%3.13%-1.28%-11.17%
66
Neutral
£3.50B41.181.97%9.57%4.21%-65.57%
65
Neutral
£13.86B24.66-27.16%1.02%5.55%19.27%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CCL
Carnival
2,136.00
1,028.50
92.87%
DRTGF
Jet2 PLC
19.72
0.88
4.67%
GB:IHG
InterContinental Hotels
9,088.00
1,555.29
20.65%
GB:WTB
Whitbread
3,103.00
151.65
5.14%
GB:TW
Taylor Wimpey
98.84
-49.21
-33.24%
GB:JD
JD Sports Fashion
94.46
-39.90
-29.70%

Carnival Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Updates on Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Aug 7, 2025

Carnival plc has announced its current voting rights and capital structure, revealing a total of 145,606,861 voting rights as of July 31, 2025. This information is crucial for shareholders and those with notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, as it affects how they calculate their interests in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Other
Carnival Corporation Director Sells Shares in Routine Transaction
Neutral
Aug 6, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced a transaction involving the sale of 12,500 shares of common stock by Director Sir Jonathon Band at a price of $29.7530 per share on the NYSE. This transaction is part of the company’s routine financial operations and may influence investor perceptions regarding the company’s stock performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Upsizes $3 Billion Notes Offering to Manage Debt
Positive
Jul 8, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has announced the upsizing and pricing of a $3.0 billion offering of 5.75% senior unsecured notes due 2032. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing borrowings and redeem $2.4 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2027. This move is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage and manage future debt maturities, positioning the company to reduce its secured debt and potentially improve its credit ratings, which could have positive implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Updates Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Jul 7, 2025

Carnival plc announced its updated voting rights and capital structure as of June 30, 2025, with 217,406,012 issued ordinary shares, of which 145,601,779 carry voting rights. This update is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to understand their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, impacting how they manage their interests in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Launches $2 Billion Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced a private offering of new senior unsecured notes totaling $2.0 billion, set to mature in 2032. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and manage future debt maturities, aiming to reduce secured debt. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen Carnival’s financial position by partially redeeming $1.4 billion of its 2027 unsecured notes, contingent on the closing of the notes offering. The offering is targeted at qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors, highlighting Carnival’s focus on financial restructuring to enhance its market standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Closes €1.0 Billion Notes Offering to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has successfully closed a €1.0 billion senior unsecured notes offering, with the proceeds aimed at repaying borrowings under its senior secured term loan facilities. This strategic financial move is part of Carnival’s ongoing efforts to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure, as it edges closer to achieving an investment-grade credit rating. The notes, due in 2031, will pay an annual interest of 4.125% and are guaranteed by Carnival Corporation and its subsidiaries. This transaction underscores Carnival’s proactive approach to capital market engagement, which is expected to strengthen its financial standing and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Announces €1.0 Billion Notes Offering to Strengthen Financial Structure
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has announced the pricing of its €1.0 billion 4.125% senior unsecured notes offering, with proceeds aimed at repaying existing borrowings under its senior secured term loan facilities. This strategic move is part of Carnival’s ongoing efforts to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure, thereby enhancing its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Sell with a £15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Launches €1 Billion Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the launch of a private offering of new senior unsecured notes amounting to €1.0 billion, expected to mature in 2031. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debts, enhancing the company’s financial structure and potentially improving its credit profile with investment-grade covenants. This strategic financial move aims to strengthen Carnival’s position in the cruise industry by optimizing its capital structure and addressing its debt obligations, which could have significant implications for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Sell with a £12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation & plc Reports Strong Financial Performance in First Half of 2025
Positive
Jun 26, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has released its joint Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the second quarter of 2025, along with the Carnival plc Group’s half-yearly financial report. The reports reveal that Carnival has seen an increase in revenues and operating income compared to the previous year, with a net income of $142 million for the first half of 2025. The financial statements have been prepared under both U.S. GAAP and UK-adopted International Financial Reporting Standards, reflecting the company’s dual listing arrangement. This financial performance indicates a positive trajectory for Carnival, potentially strengthening its position in the cruise industry and offering reassurance to stakeholders about its operational stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation Surpasses Financial Targets with Record Q2 Results
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc reported record-breaking second quarter 2025 financial results, surpassing its 2026 SEA Change financial targets 18 months ahead of schedule. The company achieved significant improvements in net income, operating income, and customer deposits, driven by strong demand and onboard spending. Carnival also extended its revolver capacity and improved its credit ratings, reflecting its robust financial management. The company’s strategic focus on delivering high-margin revenue growth and enhancing operational efficiency positions it well for future success.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Sell with a £15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation Schedules Q2 Earnings Call
Neutral
Jun 13, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced it will hold a conference call on June 24, 2025, to discuss its second quarter financial results. This call is significant for analysts and stakeholders as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and potentially impact its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Updates Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

Carnival plc announced its updated voting rights and capital structure as of May 31, 2025. The company has 145,601,779 voting rights available, which shareholders can use to assess their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules. This update is crucial for stakeholders to understand their influence and obligations within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Closes $1 Billion Notes Offering to Reduce Debt Costs
Positive
May 22, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has successfully closed a $1.0 billion offering of 5.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031, using the proceeds to redeem $993 million of 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026. This strategic move aims to reduce interest expenses by over $20 million and manage future debt maturities, reinforcing the company’s financial stability and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Announces $1 Billion Notes Offering for Debt Refinancing
Positive
May 13, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the pricing of a $1.0 billion offering of 5.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031, aimed at refinancing and reducing interest expenses. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, aligning with the company’s strategy to manage debt maturities and reduce interest expenses by over $20 million annually. This move is expected to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and improve its debt profile, potentially benefiting stakeholders by strengthening Carnival’s market positioning in the cruise industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Redeems $993 Million Notes and Launches New Offering
Positive
May 12, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the redemption of its existing $993 million 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026 and the launch of a new $1.0 billion senior unsecured notes offering expected to mature in 2031. This strategic move aims to reduce interest expenses and manage future debt maturities, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and providing stability in the cruise industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025