Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £30.10B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 529.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.62
• Revenue Growth: 3.46%
• EPS Growth: 33.88%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 115,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 188,486,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 443,079
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 529,293
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,524.71
• Price Target Upside: 8.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.9
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £20.73B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: 2,654.00p ▲(14.20% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/19/26

The score is driven by improving financial performance (profitability and cash generation have recovered, but high leverage remains a key risk) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is neutral-to-slightly supportive due to a reasonable P/E, tempered by a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue and profit recovery

Carnival shows a durable post-pandemic operating recovery with multi-year revenue growth and a return to healthy net margins. This trend bolsters pricing power, reinvestment capacity and earnings durability across cycles, supporting long-term cash flows and strategic rebuilding of equity.

Improving cash generation

Operating cash flow and positive free cash flow in 2025 indicate stronger ability to fund operations, capex and debt reduction from internal flows. Consistent cash generation improves financial flexibility and underpins deleveraging and capital allocation over a multi-quarter horizon.

Scale and diversified brand portfolio

Carnival's multi-brand, global footprint provides durable competitive advantages: distribution scale, brand segmentation across price points, and diversified itineraries. These structural assets support steady demand, ancillary spend and resilience versus single-brand peers.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Leverage remains a material structural constraint for a cyclical leisure operator. Elevated debt increases refinancing, interest rate and downturn vulnerability, restricts capital allocation flexibility and raises the bar for sustained cash generation before meaningful de-risking is achieved.

Gross margin compression

A large decline in gross margin signals persistent cost pressure (fuel, labor, port fees, other operating costs) or lower onboard yield. If structural, this reduces operating leverage and leaves profitability exposed unless pricing power or cost control is restored over several quarters.

Moderate FCF conversion

Sub-par conversion of earnings into residual free cash flow limits capacity to accelerate debt paydown or fund shareholder returns. Reliance on only moderate conversion reduces margin for error in downturns and constrains long-term balance-sheet repair without persistent operating outperformance.

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of cruise tickets and onboard services. The key revenue streams include ticket sales, which account for a significant portion of income, as well as onboard spending from guests on services such as dining, excursions, spa treatments, and retail purchases. Additionally, Carnival earns money through ancillary services like travel insurance and pre-cruise hotel packages. The company also benefits from partnerships with travel agencies, airlines, and other service providers that help to promote its offerings. Seasonal demand and the ability to effectively manage operating costs are crucial factors influencing its profitability.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating recovery with rising revenue (2023–2025) and improved profitability (2025 net margin ~10.4%, operating margin ~15.6%). Cash generation is positive (2025 OCF ~6.2B; FCF ~2.6B) but conversion is only moderate and FCF declined vs 2024. Balance-sheet leverage remains the main constraint (2025 debt ~28.0B; debt-to-equity ~2.28x), keeping overall financial quality mid-range.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a strong post-recovery earnings ramp: revenue rose from 21.6B (2023) to 25.0B (2024) to 26.6B (2025), and profitability improved sharply with net margin reaching ~10.4% in 2025 versus a small loss in 2023. Operating performance is solid (2025 operating margin ~15.6% and EBITDA margin ~26.1%), supporting a healthier earnings profile. Offsetting this, gross margin fell meaningfully in 2025 (~29.8% vs ~37.5% in 2024), suggesting cost pressure and potential sensitivity if pricing or demand softens.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the key constraint. Total debt is still high at ~28.0B in 2025, and while debt-to-equity improved to ~2.28x from ~3.12x (2024) and ~4.63x (2023), it is elevated for a cyclical leisure business. Equity has rebuilt to ~12.3B (up from ~6.9B in 2023), and returns have improved (2025 return on equity ~22.5%), but the capital structure still implies higher refinancing and downturn risk than a typical lower-leverage peer.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improving versus earlier years: operating cash flow increased to ~6.2B in 2025 (from ~4.3B in 2023), and free cash flow was ~2.6B in 2025. However, free cash flow declined versus 2024 (negative growth in 2025), and free cash flow relative to net income is moderate (~0.42x in 2025), indicating that a meaningful portion of earnings is not converting to residual cash after investment needs. Overall cash flow is supportive, but not yet consistently strong on conversion and trajectory.

Breakdown	Nov 2025	Nov 2024	Nov 2023	Nov 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.62B	25.02B	21.59B	12.17B	1.91B
Gross Profit	7.88B	9.38B	7.28B	412.00M	-2.75B
EBITDA	6.91B	6.23B	4.37B	-2.20B	-5.69B
Net Income	2.76B	1.92B	-74.00M	-6.09B	-9.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	51.64B	48.28B	49.12B	51.70B	53.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.93B	1.21B	2.42B	4.03B	9.14B
Total Debt	27.97B	28.88B	31.89B	35.88B	34.61B
Total Liabilities	39.37B	39.03B	42.24B	44.64B	41.20B
Stockholders Equity	12.27B	9.25B	6.88B	7.06B	12.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.61B	1.30B	997.00M	-6.61B	-7.72B
Operating Cash Flow	6.22B	5.92B	4.28B	-1.67B	-4.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.32B	-4.54B	-2.81B	-4.77B	-3.54B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.19B	-2.58B	-5.09B	3.58B	6.95B

Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2324.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2324 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2345.24, above the 50-day MA of 2267.55, and above the 200-day MA of 1985.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 17.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CCL.

Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JET2	75 Outperform	£2.26B	5.49	23.98%	1.18%	7.17%	-2.22%
CCL	69 Neutral	£30.10B	15.26	24.84%	―	3.46%	33.88%
IHG	69 Neutral	$19.78B	28.01	―	1.23%	5.55%	19.27%
WTB	66 Neutral	£4.25B	18.19	7.52%	3.80%	-2.12%	8.95%
OTB	64 Neutral	£274.74M	36.93	14.50%	1.39%	-5.30%	-30.17%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PPH	54 Neutral	£724.95M	63.47	7.17%	1.84%	6.14%	1.27%

Carnival Corporate Events

Carnival Sets Sterling Exchange Rate for February 2026 Quarterly Dividend

Carnival Corporation & plc has confirmed the exchange rate for its previously announced quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. Holders of Carnival Corporation common stock and Carnival plc ADSs will receive the dividend in U.S. dollars, while Carnival plc ordinary shareholders will receive payment in sterling unless they elected U.S. dollars by the record date.

The company set the conversion for sterling-dividend payments using the Bloomberg BFIX rate at noon London time on February 17, 2026, fixing US$1 at 73.72457 pence. As a result, the cash dividend for Carnival plc ordinary shares will be 11.05869 pence per share, clarifying the sterling payout for U.K. and other sterling-based investors and providing transparency around the income stream from Carnival’s resumed dividend policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival plc Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure

Carnival plc reported that as of 31 January 2026 it had 217,413,915 issued ordinary shares, of which 28,927,231 are held in treasury and 188,486,684 are issued and outstanding. Of these, 42,876,272 shares held by Carnival Corporation carry no voting rights under the company’s Articles of Association.

As a result, the total number of voting rights in Carnival plc stands at 145,610,412, which investors and other obligated parties should use as the reference denominator when assessing disclosure thresholds. The updated capital and voting structure is significant for shareholders tracking their ownership levels under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules and for understanding the company’s free-float governance base.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Files 2025 Annual Report, Reinstates Dividend and Seeks Buyback Authority After Record Year

Carnival Corporation & plc has filed its joint 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming that its audited U.S. GAAP financial statements are unchanged from the strong fourth-quarter and full-year results released in December, including record revenue of $26.6 billion, all-time high operating income of $4.5 billion, record bookings and customer deposits, and the completion of a $19 billion refinancing that has cut more than $10 billion of debt since early 2023 and enabled the reinstatement of a quarterly dividend. The cruise giant is also seeking shareholder approval to authorize Carnival plc to repurchase up to 10% of its outstanding ordinary shares, while emphasizing initiatives aimed at long-term value creation—such as targeted marketing underpinned by AI, expansion of exclusive destinations including Celebration Key and additional “Paradise Collection” projects, progress on emissions and food-waste reduction goals, and a proposed unification of its dual-listed structure to streamline governance, cut costs and potentially boost trading liquidity and index inclusion.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival plc Sets Total Voting Rights at 145.6 Million Shares

Carnival plc has clarified its share capital and voting rights position as of 31 December 2025, stating it has 217,411,094 issued ordinary shares of US$1.66 each, of which 28,927,231 are held in treasury. While 188,483,863 ordinary shares are issued and outstanding, 42,876,272 shares held by Carnival Corporation are non-voting under the company’s Articles of Association, leaving a total of 145,607,591 voting rights. This voting rights figure will serve as the key reference denominator for shareholders and other market participants when assessing and reporting their notifiable interests under UK disclosure and transparency rules, providing greater clarity on the company’s governance and ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2450.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Posts Record 2025 Profits, Restores Dividend as Bookings and Credit Profile Surge

Carnival Corporation & plc reported a record 2025, with net income of $2.8 billion and adjusted net income of $3.1 billion, more than 60% higher year-on-year, on record revenue of $26.6 billion and all-time high operating income of $4.5 billion. The company outperformed its guidance for the fourth time in 2025, driven by strong close-in demand, record net yields in constant currency, and tight cost control that limited adjusted cruise cost growth excluding fuel, while fuel consumption per berth continued to decline. Fourth-quarter adjusted net income surged over 140% versus 2024, record EBITDA and margins expanded, and customer deposits hit a new high, underscoring robust demand and strong pricing. Carnival has achieved a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.4x, completed a $19 billion refinancing plan in under a year, reduced total debt by over $10 billion from its peak, and secured investment-grade status from Fitch, enabling the reinstatement of a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share. Looking ahead, the company expects another year of double-digit earnings growth in 2026, with adjusted net income projected to rise about 12% on minimal capacity growth, net yields to improve further, and return on invested capital to exceed 13.5%, supported by record advance bookings at historically high prices and a proposed simplification of its dual-listed corporate structure to streamline governance and reporting.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Buy with a £2012.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Corporation Announces Q4 Earnings Call

Carnival Corporation & plc has announced a conference call with analysts scheduled for December 19, 2025, to discuss its fourth quarter financial results. This call is significant as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Buy with a £2012.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival plc Updates on Voting Rights and Capital Structure

Carnival plc announced its current voting rights and capital structure, revealing that it has 217,411,094 issued ordinary shares, with 145,607,591 shares carrying voting rights. This update is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Buy with a £2012.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival CEO Joins Chipotle Board as Non-Executive Director

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the appointment of its CEO, Josh Weinstein, as a Non-Executive Director at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. This move highlights the strategic alignment between Carnival’s leadership and other major industries, potentially enhancing the company’s influence and networking capabilities within the corporate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2153.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.