Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £25.14B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 529.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.77
• Revenue Growth: 3.46%
• EPS Growth: 33.88%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 115,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 189,015,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 443,079
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 529,293
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,499.71
• Price Target Upside: 36.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.84
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £20.79B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: 2,003.00 p ▲(9.51% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/19/26

The score is driven by improving financial performance (profitability and cash generation have recovered, but high leverage remains a key risk) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is neutral-to-slightly supportive due to a reasonable P/E, tempered by a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Sustained revenue recovery

Multi-year revenue growth shows durable demand recovery and pricing/volume recovery across Carnival's brand portfolio. A rising top line across 2023–2025 supports network scale, distribution leverage and long-term revenue resilience versus single-period rebounds.

Improved operating profitability

Margins have recovered materially, indicating stronger cost absorption and operational leverage as ships return to fuller utilization. Higher sustainable operating margins bolster ability to fund reinvestment, service obligations and weather cyclical demand drops over months.

Stronger cash generation and equity rebuild

Improving operating cash flow and rebuilt equity enhance financial resilience and capacity to invest in fleet, pay down debt, or support operations in slower cycles. Positive cash generation is a durable foundation for ongoing deleveraging and strategic flexibility.

Negative Factors

High leverage remains

Elevated absolute debt and leverage increase refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity for a cyclical leisure operator. In a downturn or rising rates, high leverage constrains capital allocation, raises default risk and limits strategic optionality over months.

Moderate free cash flow conversion

Sub-par FCF conversion means a significant portion of accounting earnings doesn't translate to residual cash after investments. For a capital-intensive cruise operator this limits consistent debt repayment, fleet upgrades and cash buffers versus peers over a multi-month horizon.

Material gross margin compression

A meaningful drop in gross margin signals structural cost pressure (fuel, labor, port costs) or mix shifts. If sustained, margin erosion reduces earnings resilience and magnifies the impact of any demand softness, pressuring cash flow and returns over the coming quarters.

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnival primarily makes money by selling cruise vacations and generating onboard spending from guests. Its core revenue stream is passenger ticket revenue, which comes from selling cruise fares across its brands and itineraries; these fares generally cover transportation on the ship and a base level of accommodations, meals, and onboard entertainment, and are sold through direct channels and travel agents/third-party distributors (with associated commissions and distribution costs). A second major revenue stream is onboard and other revenue, which includes charges for optional and premium experiences and services purchased during (and sometimes in connection with) a voyage. These typically include beverage packages and bar sales; specialty dining and upsell restaurants; shore excursions and destination experiences; casino gaming; spa, salon, and fitness services; photo and art sales; retail shops/merchandise; internet and communications; gratuities/service charges; and other ancillary fees and upgrades such as stateroom category upgrades and priority services. Carnival’s earnings are influenced by factors such as passenger volume and occupancy, pricing/yield management (fare levels and onboard spend per passenger), itinerary and ship deployment, and cost items like fuel, port fees, food and beverage, labor, and dry-dock/maintenance schedules. The company also benefits from partnerships and third-party operators that run revenue-generating onboard concessions or services (e.g., retail, beverage brands, shore excursion providers, and other concessionaire arrangements), where Carnival earns revenue through direct sales, commissions, or revenue-sharing structures depending on the arrangement.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating recovery with rising revenue (2023–2025) and improved profitability (2025 net margin ~10.4%, operating margin ~15.6%). Cash generation is positive (2025 OCF ~6.2B; FCF ~2.6B) but conversion is only moderate and FCF declined vs 2024. Balance-sheet leverage remains the main constraint (2025 debt ~28.0B; debt-to-equity ~2.28x), keeping overall financial quality mid-range.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a strong post-recovery earnings ramp: revenue rose from 21.6B (2023) to 25.0B (2024) to 26.6B (2025), and profitability improved sharply with net margin reaching ~10.4% in 2025 versus a small loss in 2023. Operating performance is solid (2025 operating margin ~15.6% and EBITDA margin ~26.1%), supporting a healthier earnings profile. Offsetting this, gross margin fell meaningfully in 2025 (~29.8% vs ~37.5% in 2024), suggesting cost pressure and potential sensitivity if pricing or demand softens.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the key constraint. Total debt is still high at ~28.0B in 2025, and while debt-to-equity improved to ~2.28x from ~3.12x (2024) and ~4.63x (2023), it is elevated for a cyclical leisure business. Equity has rebuilt to ~12.3B (up from ~6.9B in 2023), and returns have improved (2025 return on equity ~22.5%), but the capital structure still implies higher refinancing and downturn risk than a typical lower-leverage peer.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improving versus earlier years: operating cash flow increased to ~6.2B in 2025 (from ~4.3B in 2023), and free cash flow was ~2.6B in 2025. However, free cash flow declined versus 2024 (negative growth in 2025), and free cash flow relative to net income is moderate (~0.42x in 2025), indicating that a meaningful portion of earnings is not converting to residual cash after investment needs. Overall cash flow is supportive, but not yet consistently strong on conversion and trajectory.

Breakdown	Nov 2025	Nov 2024	Nov 2023	Nov 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.62B	25.02B	21.59B	12.17B	1.91B
Gross Profit	7.88B	9.38B	7.28B	412.00M	-2.75B
EBITDA	6.91B	6.23B	4.37B	-2.20B	-5.69B
Net Income	2.76B	1.92B	-74.00M	-6.09B	-9.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	51.64B	48.28B	49.12B	51.70B	53.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.93B	1.21B	2.42B	4.03B	9.14B
Total Debt	27.97B	28.88B	31.89B	35.88B	34.61B
Total Liabilities	39.37B	39.03B	42.24B	44.64B	41.20B
Stockholders Equity	12.27B	9.25B	6.88B	7.06B	12.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.61B	1.30B	997.00M	-6.61B	-7.72B
Operating Cash Flow	6.22B	5.92B	4.28B	-1.67B	-4.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.32B	-4.54B	-2.81B	-4.77B	-3.54B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.19B	-2.58B	-5.09B	3.58B	6.95B

Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1829.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1829 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2024.80, below the 50-day MA of 2162.53, and below the 200-day MA of 2010.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -117.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CCL.

Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JET2	75 Outperform	£1.96B	1.18	23.98%	1.18%	7.17%	-2.22%
CCL	69 Neutral	£25.14B	11.36	25.45%	―	3.46%	33.88%
IHG	69 Neutral	$19.29B	28.60	-23.50%	1.23%	5.55%	19.27%
WTB	66 Neutral	£3.85B	6.31	7.68%	3.80%	-2.12%	8.95%
OTB	64 Neutral	£227.50M	40.51	5.43%	1.39%	-5.30%	-30.17%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PPH	54 Neutral	£699.84M	56.99	4.65%	1.84%	6.14%	1.27%

Carnival Corporate Events

Carnival to Delist Certain Debt From NYSE and LSE, Shift Listings to TISE Ahead of Corporate Unification

Carnival Corporation & plc plans to voluntarily delist its 1.000% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2029 from the New York Stock Exchange and its 7.875% Debentures due 2027 from the London Stock Exchange, having already relisted both instruments on The International Stock Exchange. The moves are tied to the group’s planned unification of its dual-listed structure into a single parent, Carnival Corporation Ltd., a step aimed at simplifying its corporate framework while keeping existing reporting obligations in place until the reorganization is completed, with limited expected disruption for debt holders as the securities continue trading on TISE.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £1976.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Sets March 27 Call to Review First‑Quarter Earnings

Carnival Corporation & plc will hold a conference call with analysts on March 27, 2026, to discuss its first‑quarter financial results, which are scheduled for release earlier that day. The call will be simulcast via the company’s corporate websites, underscoring Carnival’s efforts to provide transparent, timely financial communication to investors and other stakeholders as it reports on its latest operating performance.

The scheduled earnings discussion offers the market a key checkpoint on the cruise operator’s financial trajectory and demand trends across its global fleet. Analysts and investors will look to the briefing for signals on booking momentum, pricing, and cost management, which are central to Carnival’s recovery path and competitive positioning in the broader leisure travel industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2005.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Totals

Carnival plc has confirmed that, as of 28 February 2026, it had 217,413,915 issued ordinary shares, of which 28,398,278 are held in treasury and 42,876,272 held by Carnival Corporation do not carry voting rights. This results in 146,139,365 voting rights attached to 189,015,637 issued and outstanding ordinary shares, a figure shareholders must now use as the denominator when assessing disclosure obligations under FCA transparency rules.

The clarified voting rights position provides investors and other stakeholders with an updated reference point for monitoring significant shareholdings in Carnival plc. By formally disclosing the current capital and voting structure, the company supports regulatory compliance and enhances transparency in its ownership profile, which can influence how institutional investors track and report changes in their stakes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2654.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Files 2025 Annual Report for Public Inspection

Carnival Corporation & plc has published its Carnival plc 2025 Annual Report and submitted it to the U.K. National Storage Mechanism, where it will be available for public inspection alongside digital access via the company’s corporate websites. The filing underscores the cruise operator’s ongoing regulatory compliance in its key listing markets and provides investors and other stakeholders with updated, detailed disclosures on its performance and activities.

The broad dissemination of the annual report supports transparency for shareholders and debt holders, particularly given Carnival’s scale in the global leisure travel sector and its multiple listed securities. Ready access to this information may influence market perceptions of the company’s financial health and strategic direction, and aids analysts and regulators in assessing its position within the competitive cruise industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2654.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Sets Sterling Exchange Rate for February 2026 Quarterly Dividend

Carnival Corporation & plc has confirmed the exchange rate for its previously announced quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. Holders of Carnival Corporation common stock and Carnival plc ADSs will receive the dividend in U.S. dollars, while Carnival plc ordinary shareholders will receive payment in sterling unless they elected U.S. dollars by the record date.

The company set the conversion for sterling-dividend payments using the Bloomberg BFIX rate at noon London time on February 17, 2026, fixing US$1 at 73.72457 pence. As a result, the cash dividend for Carnival plc ordinary shares will be 11.05869 pence per share, clarifying the sterling payout for U.K. and other sterling-based investors and providing transparency around the income stream from Carnival’s resumed dividend policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival plc Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure

Carnival plc reported that as of 31 January 2026 it had 217,413,915 issued ordinary shares, of which 28,927,231 are held in treasury and 188,486,684 are issued and outstanding. Of these, 42,876,272 shares held by Carnival Corporation carry no voting rights under the company’s Articles of Association.

As a result, the total number of voting rights in Carnival plc stands at 145,610,412, which investors and other obligated parties should use as the reference denominator when assessing disclosure thresholds. The updated capital and voting structure is significant for shareholders tracking their ownership levels under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules and for understanding the company’s free-float governance base.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Files 2025 Annual Report, Reinstates Dividend and Seeks Buyback Authority After Record Year

Carnival Corporation & plc has filed its joint 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming that its audited U.S. GAAP financial statements are unchanged from the strong fourth-quarter and full-year results released in December, including record revenue of $26.6 billion, all-time high operating income of $4.5 billion, record bookings and customer deposits, and the completion of a $19 billion refinancing that has cut more than $10 billion of debt since early 2023 and enabled the reinstatement of a quarterly dividend. The cruise giant is also seeking shareholder approval to authorize Carnival plc to repurchase up to 10% of its outstanding ordinary shares, while emphasizing initiatives aimed at long-term value creation—such as targeted marketing underpinned by AI, expansion of exclusive destinations including Celebration Key and additional “Paradise Collection” projects, progress on emissions and food-waste reduction goals, and a proposed unification of its dual-listed structure to streamline governance, cut costs and potentially boost trading liquidity and index inclusion.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival plc Sets Total Voting Rights at 145.6 Million Shares

Carnival plc has clarified its share capital and voting rights position as of 31 December 2025, stating it has 217,411,094 issued ordinary shares of US$1.66 each, of which 28,927,231 are held in treasury. While 188,483,863 ordinary shares are issued and outstanding, 42,876,272 shares held by Carnival Corporation are non-voting under the company’s Articles of Association, leaving a total of 145,607,591 voting rights. This voting rights figure will serve as the key reference denominator for shareholders and other market participants when assessing and reporting their notifiable interests under UK disclosure and transparency rules, providing greater clarity on the company’s governance and ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CCL) stock is a Hold with a £2450.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the GB:CCL Stock Forecast page.