BP p.l.c. (GB:BP)
LSE:BP
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BP p.l.c.
(LSE:BP)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
613.00 p
▲(4.95% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven mainly by adequate but mixed financial performance (strong cash generation offset by weaker profitability and rising leverage) and constructive technicals. This is partially offset by very weak earnings-based valuation (extreme P/E), while the earnings call adds support due to improving cash flow, cost actions and balance-sheet targets despite execution and timing risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained high operating and adjusted free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and deleveraging. Consistent cash conversion supports resilience across cycles, funds strategic projects and reduces reliance on external financing over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises vulnerability to a weaker earnings backdrop. With debt-to-equity ~1.37, interest and covenant exposure constrain capital allocation, making sustained deleveraging necessary to avoid long-term balance‑sheet stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained high operating and adjusted free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and deleveraging. Consistent cash conversion supports resilience across cycles, funds strategic projects and reduces reliance on external financing over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£89.78B
Dividend Yield5.73%
Average Volume (3M)26.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)1650.4
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth-6.90%
EPS Growth-43.82%
CountryUK
Employees100,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding15,700,470,000
10 Day Avg. Volume25,231,935
30 Day Avg. Volume26,714,907
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-19.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio8.05
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£470.82Price Target Upside-19.39% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)£176.86B
BP p.l.c. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BP p.l.c. engages in the energy business worldwide. It operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, Customers & Products, and Rosneft segments. It produces and trades in natural gas; offers biofuels; operates onshore and ...
How the Company Makes Money
BP primarily makes money by producing, processing, trading, and selling energy and energy-related products and services. Upstream: BP earns revenue from the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its operated and non...
BP p.l.c. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial update: strong project execution, record reliability (>96%), significant emissions and methane reductions, a 55% price-adjusted increase in adjusted free cash flow, improved ROACE (14% vs 12%), material cost reductions delivered ($2.8B to date) and clear progress on divestments and balance-sheet strengthening. Headwinds and risks were acknowledged: four workplace fatalities, ~$4B of impairments tied to transition businesses, net debt still above the 2027 target range, suspension of buybacks (reducing near-term shareholder returns), and timing dependence on remaining divestment proceeds. Overall, positive operational and cash-generation momentum appears to outweigh the challenges, though execution on remaining divestments, safety and continued cost discipline will be critical to sustain the positive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth
Generated around $13.0 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2025 (reported and price-adjusted) representing ~55% growth year-on-year on a price-adjusted basis versus 2024; operating cash flow for the year was $24.5 billion.
Negative Updates
Fatalities in U.S. Retail
Four colleagues lost their lives in 2025 while working in the U.S. retail business (two incidents involved roadside assistance struck by passing vehicles); BP has permanently stopped roadside assistance next to active traffic lanes.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth
Generated around $13.0 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2025 (reported and price-adjusted) representing ~55% growth year-on-year on a price-adjusted basis versus 2024; operating cash flow for the year was $24.5 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BP's guidance focused on accelerating a disciplined turnaround: net debt was $22.2bn at end‑2025 (down $0.8bn y/y) with a target of $14–18bn by end‑2027, supported by $11bn of the $20bn divestment program completed/announced (received $5.3bn in 2025, expect $3–4bn in 2026, H2‑weighted); adjusted free cash flow was ~ $13bn in 2025 (≈+55% price‑adjusted; targeting >20% CAGR to 2027), operating cash flow $24.5bn (OCF + divestments $30.4bn), adjusted replacement‑cost profit $7.5bn, ROACE ~14% (price‑adjusted; target >16% by 2027), CapEx tightened to $13–13.5bn for 2026 (2025 CapEx $14.5bn, organic $13.6bn), shareholder distributions ≈30% of 2025 OCF with DPS $0.0832 and at least 4% p.a. growth (buybacks suspended to prioritise balance‑sheet repair), impairments of ~ $4bn after tax in Q4, financial obligations ≈ $58bn (incl. Gulf of America gross payments $1.6bn in 2026, $1.2bn in 2027), structural cost reductions $2.8bn delivered to date (≈$2bn in 2025) toward an increased $5.5–6.5bn 2027 target and underlying opex down >$700m since 2023 (targeting ~$19–20bn by 2027); operating guidance/highlights include 2026 production (ex‑divestments) ~2.3m boe/d (broadly flat vs 2025), 7 major project start‑ups in 2025 (≈150k of 250k boe/d net peak expected by 2027 now online), 2025 reserves replacement ratio 90% (aiming 100% by end‑2027), plant and refinery availability >96%, well reliability ~98%, methane intensity ~0.04% (target 0.2%), and operational emissions down 37% vs 2019.BP p.l.c. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 189.34B | 185.23B | 213.67B | 240.86B | 154.71B |
| Gross Profit | 33.53B | 28.11B | 47.39B | 54.05B | 21.65B |
| EBITDA | 31.07B | 25.11B | 42.89B | 29.37B | 27.82B |
| Net Income | 55.00M | 382.83M | 15.50B | -2.48B | 7.42B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 278.53B | 282.23B | 280.29B | 288.12B | 287.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.71B | 34.52B | 28.59B | 29.77B | 30.96B |
| Total Debt | 72.53B | 71.55B | 63.08B | 55.49B | 69.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 204.53B | 203.91B | 194.80B | 205.13B | 196.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.05B | 59.25B | 70.28B | 67.55B | 75.46B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.27B | 12.00B | 17.75B | 28.86B | 12.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.49B | 27.30B | 32.04B | 40.93B | 23.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.50B | -13.25B | -14.87B | -13.71B | -5.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.88B | -7.30B | -13.36B | -28.02B | -18.08B |
BP p.l.c. Technical Analysis
Positive
584.10
Price Trends
487.72
Positive
462.81
Positive
431.54
Positive
Market Momentum
27.09
Negative
69.54
Neutral
89.79
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 584.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 533.19, above the 50-day MA of 487.72, and above the 200-day MA of 431.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 27.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BP.
BP p.l.c. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £195.69B | 12.65 | 8.25% | 4.00% | -9.21% | -2.61% | |
70 Outperform | £2.89B | 13.86 | 8.95% | 5.64% | 159.13% | 143.76% | |
70 Outperform | £4.09B | -42.84 | -4.67% | 14.05% | 63.10% | -161.03% | |
69 Neutral | £5.31B | -24.34 | -4.05% | 8.77% | 123.03% | -330.89% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
60 Neutral | £89.78B | 1,650.36 | 0.10% | 5.73% | -6.90% | -43.82% | |
58 Neutral | £1.60B | -8.35 | -65.81% | 10.99% | -2.66% | 0.11% |
* Energy Sector Average
GB:BP
BP p.l.c.
584.10
172.87
42.04%
GB:HBR
Harbour Energy
291.60
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56.59%
GB:SHEL
Shell (UK)
3,482.00
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GB:SEPL
SEPLAT Petroleum Development
482.00
319.98
197.49%
GB:ENOG
Energean
867.50
80.67
10.25%
GB:ITH
Ithaca Energy PLC
247.50
109.34
79.15%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.