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BP p.l.c. (GB:BP)
LSE:BP

BP p.l.c. (BP) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:BP

BP p.l.c.

(LSE:BP)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
500.00p
▲(11.01% Upside)
BP's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results and positive technical indicators, reflecting robust operational performance and strategic progress. However, high leverage and a high P/E ratio suggest caution. The attractive dividend yield provides a counterbalance, offering income potential for investors.
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
BP's strong operational performance and strategic progress, including exploration successes, indicate robust efficiency and potential for sustained growth.
Exploration Success
Significant exploration discoveries enhance BP's resource base, supporting long-term production growth and competitive positioning in the energy sector.
New Projects
Timely completion of new projects strengthens BP's production capabilities and market presence, ensuring future revenue streams and operational stability.
Negative Factors
High Debt Levels
High leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting BP's flexibility to invest in growth opportunities or weather economic downturns.
Declining Revenue Growth
A sharp decline in revenue growth indicates market challenges and pressures on BP's ability to maintain profitability and shareholder returns.
Liquidity Challenges
Decreasing free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity issues, which could impact BP's capacity to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

BP p.l.c. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBP p.l.c. (BP) is a global oil and gas company headquartered in London, England. It operates across all sectors of the energy industry, including exploration, production, refining, distribution, and marketing of oil and natural gas, as well as renewable energy sources. BP's core products include crude oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals, alongside its investments in alternative energy solutions such as wind and solar power. The company is also involved in the development of technologies aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
How the Company Makes MoneyBP generates revenue primarily through the exploration, extraction, and sale of oil and natural gas. The company earns money by selling crude oil and natural gas to refineries and other customers, as well as through its refining operations, where it processes crude oil into various petroleum products. Additionally, BP has a significant retail segment that sells fuels and convenience store products to consumers through its global network of service stations. The company also invests in renewable energy projects, which contribute to its earnings as global demand for green energy increases. Key revenue streams include upstream activities (exploration and production), downstream operations (refining and marketing), and renewable energy investments. BP's strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies also enhance its capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall profitability.

BP p.l.c. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong operational and strategic performance with significant exploration successes and improvements in both upstream and downstream operations. However, there are challenges related to ongoing legal disputes and managing CapEx amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Despite these challenges, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negative ones.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operational Performance
BP delivered another strong quarter with underlying pretax earnings of $5.3 billion and underlying net income of $2.2 billion. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $7.8 billion.
Upstream Production Increase
Upstream production increased by around 3% quarter-on-quarter with a plant reliability rate of around 97%, which led to upgraded full-year production guidance.
Record Refining Availability
Refining availability was close to 97%, marking the best quarter in 20 years for the current portfolio.
New Oil and Gas Projects
Six new major oil and gas projects started in 2025, with four of them ahead of schedule.
Exploration Success
12 exploration discoveries in 2025, including the significant Bumerangue discovery in Brazil.
Improved Downstream Earnings
Underlying earnings in the first nine months were around 40% higher than the same period in 2024.
Progress in AI and Automation
BP made significant progress in AI, improving operational efficiency and reducing costs across upstream and downstream operations.
Strong Interest in Divestments
BP is making good progress on divestment proceeds with strong interest in assets like Castrol and Gelsenkirchen.
Negative Updates
Venture Global Arbitration
BP is involved in an arbitration case with Venture Global, but the details of the damages sought are not disclosed.
Potential CapEx Challenges
BP faces potential challenges in managing CapEx within the $13-15 billion range amid potential macroeconomic uncertainties.
Trading Weakness
BP's trading segment experienced a weaker quarter, although year-to-date performance is in line with last year.
Company Guidance
During BP's Third Quarter 2025 Results Call, the company reported strong operational performance and strategic progress, showcasing underlying pretax earnings of $5.3 billion and underlying net income of $2.2 billion. BP generated $7.8 billion in operating cash flow, aligning with its growth target for adjusted free cash flow growth of 20% CAGR from 2025 to 2027. Upstream production increased by approximately 3% quarter-on-quarter, with upstream plant reliability at around 97%. This led to upgraded full-year production guidance, marking the best quarter in 20 years for the current portfolio. BP has started up six new oil and gas major projects in 2025, four of which were ahead of schedule, and reported 12 exploration discoveries within the year. The company is also focused on achieving a $20 billion divestment proceeds target, with $5 billion expected from proceeds completed and announced this year. BP aims to maintain organic CapEx below $14 billion, and despite market volatility, remains committed to enhancing performance, reducing costs, and strengthening the balance sheet to increase shareholder value and returns.

BP p.l.c. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BP's financial statements reflect a challenging market environment with declining revenue growth and profitability issues. The balance sheet shows a leveraged position with potential risks, and cash flow analysis indicates liquidity challenges. Despite these challenges, BP maintains operational efficiency.
Income Statement
72
Positive
BP's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data reveals a significant decline in revenue growth rate at -44.1%, indicating a challenging market environment. Gross profit margin stands at 15.43%, which is relatively stable, but the net profit margin is negative at -0.64%, reflecting profitability issues. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 5.45% and 14.42%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency but also highlighting the impact of external pressures on profitability.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.22, which suggests a leveraged position that could pose risks if market conditions worsen. Return on equity is negative at -2.02%, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. However, the equity ratio is a moderate 20.81%, indicating a balanced asset structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable yet cautious financial position.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -15.72%, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.39, suggesting adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.41 highlights the need for improved cash management. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects a need for strategic adjustments to enhance liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue186.58B185.23B213.67B240.86B154.71B112.38B
Gross Profit36.20B28.11B47.39B54.05B21.65B-534.61M
EBITDA31.08B25.11B42.89B29.37B27.82B-7.46B
Net Income1.56B382.83M15.50B-2.48B7.42B-21.54B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets280.46B282.23B280.29B288.12B287.27B267.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments35.05B34.52B28.59B29.77B30.96B29.53B
Total Debt74.82B71.55B63.08B55.49B69.79B81.93B
Total Liabilities202.81B203.91B194.80B205.13B196.83B182.09B
Stockholders Equity58.24B59.25B70.28B67.55B75.46B71.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow10.67B12.00B17.75B28.86B12.72B-144.00M
Operating Cash Flow24.30B27.30B32.04B40.93B23.61B12.16B
Investing Cash Flow-11.24B-13.25B-14.87B-13.71B-5.69B-7.86B
Financing Cash Flow-12.51B-7.30B-13.36B-28.02B-18.08B3.96B

BP p.l.c. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price450.40
Price Trends
50DMA
439.23
Positive
100DMA
425.82
Positive
200DMA
398.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.00
Positive
RSI
49.23
Neutral
STOCH
49.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 450.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 457.32, above the 50-day MA of 439.23, and above the 200-day MA of 398.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:BP.

BP p.l.c. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
£163.26B15.138.25%3.94%-9.21%-2.61%
73
Outperform
£1.75B10.7912.03%5.91%159.13%143.76%
73
Outperform
£1.77B10.8917.24%10.79%-2.66%0.11%
71
Outperform
£69.57B63.112.40%5.46%-6.90%-43.82%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
65
Neutral
£3.67B-29.56-4.67%13.21%63.10%-161.03%
63
Neutral
£3.79B-10.03-11.32%8.49%123.03%-330.89%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:BP
BP p.l.c.
450.40
78.37
21.07%
GB:HBR
Harbour Energy
205.40
-24.46
-10.64%
GB:SHEL
Shell (UK)
2,750.00
355.93
14.87%
GB:SEPL
SEPLAT Petroleum Development
247.50
67.42
37.44%
GB:ENOG
Energean
900.50
7.86
0.88%
GB:ITH
Ithaca Energy PLC
173.80
78.62
82.60%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025