BP PLC (GB:BP.B)
LSE:BP.B
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BP plc
(LSE:BP.B)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
164.00 p
▼(-2.96% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven mainly by resilient cash generation but materially weaker and volatile profitability with higher leverage. Technical signals are soft (below key moving averages and negative MACD), while valuation is supported by a high dividend yield but complicated by a negative P/E. Earnings-call guidance is broadly positive on cash flow, costs, and deleveraging, tempered by buyback suspension, impairments, and execution/safety risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
BP's demonstrated operating cash flow (24.5B) and materially higher free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and deleveraging. Management also reported adjusted FCF of ~$13bn in 2025 and a >20% CAGR target to 2027, underpinning multi-year liquidity and strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Higher leverage and a smaller equity base weaken balance‑sheet resilience, limiting financial flexibility for large project funding or opportunistic M&A. Achieving management's $14–18bn net debt target requires timely divestments and strong cash conversion, exposing strategy to execution and market timing risks over the next 2–3 years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
BP's demonstrated operating cash flow (24.5B) and materially higher free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and deleveraging. Management also reported adjusted FCF of ~$13bn in 2025 and a >20% CAGR target to 2027, underpinning multi-year liquidity and strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
BP plc (BP.B) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£90.87B
Dividend Yield5.42%
Average Volume (3M)3.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)634.9
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees100,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding5,473,414
10 Day Avg. Volume5,154
30 Day Avg. Volume3,567
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.44
Price to Book (P/B)0.66
Price to Sales (P/S)0.18
P/FCF Ratio3.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
BP plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BP p.l.c. provides carbon products and services. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, and integrated gas and power; tradi...
How the Company Makes Money
BP makes money primarily by producing, trading, refining, and selling hydrocarbons and related products, alongside earnings from its retail and low-carbon activities. Major revenue and earnings streams include: (1) Upstream (oil and gas production...
BP plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed a solid operational and financial turnaround in 2025 with strong cash generation (+55% adjusted free cash flow price‑adjusted), improved ROACE (14%), record reliability and major project delivery (7 startups, many ahead of schedule). Management delivered meaningful cost reductions, advanced a $20bn divestment program and set tighter capital discipline, while retaining a progressive dividend policy. However, material challenges remain: four workplace fatalities, ~$4bn of impairments tied to transition businesses, suspension of buybacks (reducing near‑term shareholder returns), and sizable financial obligations (~$58bn) that require further balance‑sheet strengthening. Overall the tone was constructive and forward‑looking, but with clear acknowledgment of execution, safety and portfolio‑rebalancing risks that management intends to address.Positive Updates
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth
Adjusted free cash flow of ~ $13 billion in 2025 (reported and price‑adjusted) representing ~55% growth year‑on‑year on a price‑adjusted basis; management reiterates target of >20% CAGR through 2027.
Negative Updates
Fatalities in U.S. Retail
Four colleagues were tragically killed in 2025 while working in the U.S. retail business (two struck by passing vehicles during roadside assistance); BP has permanently stopped roadside assistance next to active traffic lanes — a significant safety incident and human cost.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth
Adjusted free cash flow of ~ $13 billion in 2025 (reported and price‑adjusted) representing ~55% growth year‑on‑year on a price‑adjusted basis; management reiterates target of >20% CAGR through 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized prioritizing balance‑sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation with numerous numeric targets: adjusted free cash flow was ~$13bn in 2025 (price‑adjusted ~55% y/y) and management is tracking >20% CAGR to 2027 (presentation on a $70/bbl basis); return on average capital employed rose to ~14% (price‑adjusted) in 2025 with a >16% target for 2027; net debt was $22.2bn at end‑2025 (down $0.8bn) with a target of $14–18bn by end‑2027; operating cash flow was $24.5bn (operating cash flow plus divestment/other proceeds $30.4bn), 2025 CapEx was $14.5bn (organic $13.6bn) and 2026 CapEx is guided to $13–13.5bn (H1‑weighted); structural cost reductions delivered $2.8bn to date (≈$2bn in 2025) with a raised target of $5.5–6.5bn by 2027 and underlying Opex expected to fall to ~$19–20bn by 2027; dividend per share was set at $0.0832 with at least 4% p.a. growth and buybacks suspended to deploy excess cash to deleveraging and value‑accretive options; divestment progress includes >$11bn completed/announced of a $20bn program ($5.3bn received in 2025, ~$6bn from Castrol, and $3–4bn expected in 2026); operational and sustainability metrics also featured (2026 production ex‑divestments ~2.3 mboe/d, plant/refinery availability >96%, wells reliability ~98%, 7 major project start‑ups in 2025 adding ~150k of an expected 250k boe/d peak by 2027, 2025 organic reserve replacement ~90% with a 100% RRR aim by 2027, operational emissions down 37% vs 2019, methane intensity ~0.04%).BP plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 189.34B | 189.19B | 208.35B | 241.39B | 157.74B |
| Gross Profit | 33.53B | 30.24B | 64.06B | 55.10B | 22.86B |
| EBITDA | 31.07B | 27.98B | 43.50B | 59.47B | 32.55B |
| Net Income | 55.00M | 381.00M | 15.24B | -1.36B | 7.57B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 278.53B | 282.23B | 280.29B | 288.12B | 287.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.71B | 34.52B | 28.59B | 29.77B | 30.96B |
| Total Debt | 72.53B | 71.55B | 63.08B | 55.49B | 69.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 204.53B | 203.91B | 194.80B | 205.13B | 196.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.05B | 59.25B | 70.28B | 67.55B | 75.46B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.27B | 12.00B | 17.75B | 28.86B | 12.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.49B | 27.30B | 32.04B | 40.93B | 23.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.50B | -13.25B | -14.87B | -13.71B | -5.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.88B | -7.30B | -13.36B | -28.02B | -18.08B |
BP plc Technical Analysis
Negative
169.00
Price Trends
163.12
Negative
162.21
Negative
161.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.49
Negative
46.90
Neutral
44.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 169 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 161.33, above the 50-day MA of 163.12, and above the 200-day MA of 161.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BP.B.
BP plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £198.91B | 11.92 | 8.25% | 4.00% | -9.21% | -2.61% | |
70 Outperform | £2.92B | 13.86 | 8.95% | 5.64% | 159.13% | 143.76% | |
70 Outperform | £4.20B | -42.84 | -3.13% | 14.05% | 63.10% | -161.03% | |
69 Neutral | £5.22B | -24.34 | -4.05% | 8.77% | 123.03% | -330.89% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | £1.56B | -8.35 | -65.81% | 10.99% | -2.66% | 0.11% | |
55 Neutral | £90.87B | 634.90 | 0.10% | 5.42% | ― | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
GB:BP.B
BP plc
160.00
12.60
8.55%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.