BP plc (BP.B) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £79.00B
• Dividend Yield: 5.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 634.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.15
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: UK
• Employees: 100,500
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 5,473,414
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,154
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,567
• PEG Ratio: -7.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: 158.00 p ▼(-6.51% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven down primarily by fragile recent profitability (near break-even net margin) and higher leverage despite solid cash generation. Technicals also detract due to oversold readings and negative momentum, and valuation is a major headwind given the extremely high P/E even with a strong dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

BP's sizable operating cash flow and double-digit free cash flow in 2025 provide durable internal funding for dividends, maintenance capex, and transition investments. Consistent FCF at this scale helps absorb cyclical earnings swings and supports strategic optionality over months to years.

Integrated, diversified business model

BP's integrated footprint across production, trading, refining, retail and growing low‑carbon activities gives structural resilience. Diverse cash drivers and margin pools reduce single‑point commodity exposure, enabling the company to reallocate capital across segments during prolonged market swings.

Revenue rebound and positive operating margins

The 2025 revenue recovery and positive gross/EBITDA margins reflect operating scale and margin capture in refining/trading and commercial businesses. Sustained top-line recovery supports cash flow generation and underpins medium‑term operating leverage even if net profit remains pressured.

Negative Factors

Profitability deterioration

A collapse to near‑zero net margin signals fragile underlying earnings and reduced ability to absorb shocks. Persistently low net profitability undermines ROE and long‑term retained earnings, constraining organic growth and increasing reliance on non‑operating moves to sustain payouts.

Rising leverage and weaker equity buffer

Higher debt and a materially smaller equity base reduce financial flexibility. Elevated leverage increases fixed financing costs and limits ability to fund large capex or acquisitions without raising cost of capital or diluting shareholders, raising medium‑term balance sheet risk.

Mixed cash conversion

Weak conversion metrics indicate earnings are not fully matched by cash receipts, creating vulnerability when earnings are volatile. This can pressure liquidity when commodity cycles turn, complicate reliable dividend funding, and increase the need for asset sales or external financing over time.

BP plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BP p.l.c. provides carbon products and services. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, and integrated gas and power; trading of gas; operation of onshore and offshore wind power, as well as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage facilities; trading and marketing of renewable and non-renewable power; and production of crude oil. In addition, the company involved in convenience and retail fuel, EV charging, Castrol lubricant, aviation, B2B, and midstream businesses; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy business. Further, it engages in power and storage, digital transformation, carbon management, and bio and low carbon related products, as well as energy and environmental commodities and mobility businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

BP makes money primarily by producing, trading, refining, and selling hydrocarbons and related products, alongside earnings from its retail and low-carbon activities. Major revenue and earnings streams include: (1) Upstream (oil and gas production): BP sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its fields. Revenue depends on production volumes and realized commodity prices (linked to benchmarks for oil and gas), while profitability is influenced by lifting costs, royalties/taxes, and depreciation and exploration costs. (2) Gas & low carbon energy / gas marketing and trading: BP markets and trades natural gas and LNG, earning margins from optimizing supply sources, shipping/regasification access, and timing/price differentials across regions and contracts. Trading can contribute materially to results through realized margins and market optimization, with performance influenced by volatility and risk management. (3) Refining and product marketing: BP refines crude oil into petroleum products (e.g., gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and sells them wholesale and through branded channels. Earnings are driven by refining margins (the spread between refined product prices and crude/feedstock costs), refinery utilization, and operational reliability. (4) Customer & products (downstream retail and convenience): BP sells transportation fuels through retail sites (including branded dealers) and earns margins per unit sold; it also earns non-fuel income from convenience retail and associated services. BP also sells lubricants and other specialty products, typically earning branded/product margins. (5) Low-carbon and power-related activities: BP generates revenue and earnings from activities such as renewable power generation, power trading/marketing, and other transition-related businesses where applicable; returns depend on project performance, contracted offtake, power prices, and development/execution. Across these streams, BP’s consolidated results are significantly affected by global commodity prices (oil, gas, refined products), refining and trading margins, volumes, currency movements, and portfolio actions such as asset sales/acquisitions and joint ventures where BP recognizes its share of earnings.

BP plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: revenue rebounded strongly in 2025, and cash flow is relatively solid (positive operating cash flow and free cash flow). However, profitability has deteriorated materially with net margin near break-even in 2025 and high historical margin volatility, while leverage has increased (higher debt-to-equity) and equity has declined.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (annual revenue growth of 0.887) after declines in 2023–2024, but profitability has weakened materially versus 2023. Net profit margin fell to near break-even in 2025 (0.00029) from a strong 2023 level (0.073), and margins have been volatile (including a loss in 2022 and a severe downturn in 2020). While gross and EBITDA margins in 2025 (0.177 and 0.164) are positive, the sharp compression in net income suggests earnings are currently fragile for the scale of the business.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has risen: debt-to-equity increased to 1.37 in 2025 from 0.90 in 2023, indicating a heavier reliance on debt. Equity also declined from 70.3B (2023) to 53.1B (2025), reducing balance-sheet cushion. Total assets are broadly stable (~278.5B in 2025), but returns on equity have fallen sharply from 2023’s strong level (0.217) to very low in 2024 (0.006), consistent with the earnings slowdown.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a relative strength: operating cash flow stayed solid at 24.5B in 2025 and free cash flow was 11.3B, with strong free cash flow growth in 2025 (5.632) following a decline in 2024. However, cash conversion vs. accounting earnings looks mixed: free cash flow is modest relative to net income in the data provided (free cash flow to net income of 0.46 in 2025), and operating cash flow coverage is consistently below 1 (0.304 in 2025), pointing to periods where cash flow does not fully cover the referenced obligation/earnings measure.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	189.34B	189.19B	208.35B	241.39B	157.74B
Gross Profit	33.53B	30.24B	64.06B	55.10B	22.86B
EBITDA	31.07B	27.98B	43.50B	59.47B	32.55B
Net Income	55.00M	381.00M	15.24B	-1.36B	7.57B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	278.53B	282.23B	280.29B	288.12B	287.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	36.71B	34.52B	28.59B	29.77B	30.96B
Total Debt	72.53B	71.55B	63.08B	55.49B	69.79B
Total Liabilities	204.53B	203.91B	194.80B	205.13B	196.83B
Stockholders Equity	53.05B	59.25B	70.28B	67.55B	75.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.27B	12.00B	17.75B	28.86B	12.72B
Operating Cash Flow	24.49B	27.30B	32.04B	40.93B	23.61B
Investing Cash Flow	-11.50B	-13.25B	-14.87B	-13.71B	-5.69B
Financing Cash Flow	-15.88B	-7.30B	-13.36B	-28.02B	-18.08B

BP plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 169.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 169 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 164.45, above the 50-day MA of 164.06, and above the 200-day MA of 161.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.93 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BP.B.

BP plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SHEL	73 Outperform	£182.70B	11.92	8.25%	4.00%	-9.21%	-2.61%
ENOG	73 Outperform	£1.57B	5.30	0.18%	10.99%	-2.66%	0.11%
SEPL	70 Outperform	£2.64B	13.86	8.95%	5.64%	159.13%	143.76%
HBR	69 Neutral	£4.92B	-24.34	-11.32%	8.77%	123.03%	-330.89%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
ITH	54 Neutral	£4.03B	11.13	-4.67%	14.05%	63.10%	-161.03%
BP.B	45 Neutral	£79.00B	634.90	―	5.42%	―	―