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Global Blue Group Holding Ag (GB)
NYSE:GB
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Global Blue Group Holding (GB) AI Stock Analysis

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Global Blue Group Holding

(NYSE:GB)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(6.81% Upside)
Global Blue Group Holding's strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow generation, is a key strength. However, high leverage and neutral technical indicators moderate the overall score. The reasonable valuation supports a balanced investment outlook.

Global Blue Group Holding (GB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Global Blue Group Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal Blue Group Holding (GB) is a leading technology and payments partner for merchants and travelers, specializing in tax-free shopping solutions and cross-border payments. The company operates primarily in the retail, tourism, and financial services sectors, providing services that include VAT refund solutions for international shoppers, analytics, and payment processing. With a presence in numerous countries, Global Blue enhances the shopping experience for tourists and helps merchants to attract and retain international customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal Blue generates revenue primarily through its VAT refund services, where it charges a fee to merchants for facilitating the tax refund process for international travelers. This fee is typically a percentage of the refunded VAT amount. Additionally, the company earns money from its payment processing services, where it charges transaction fees for cross-border payments made by tourists. Key revenue streams include partnerships with retailers, which allow Global Blue to offer integrated solutions that enhance the shopping experience. The company also benefits from a growing trend in international travel and tourism, which contributes to increased usage of its services.

Global Blue Group Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, improved net leverage, and a positive outlook. However, challenges such as the loss of a major client in FX Solutions and increased finance costs were noted. The acquisition by Shift4 adds a strategic positive development.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Global Blue reported a 20% year-on-year increase in revenue for the third quarter, reaching 131 million Euros, driven by solid performance across all divisions.
Significant Increase in Adjusted EBITDA
The company achieved a 31% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching 52 million Euros, with an improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin by 3.4 points to 39.7%.
Impressive Performance in Tax Free Shopping Solutions
Tax Free Shopping Solutions accounted for 74% of Group revenue in the quarter, with revenue growth of 22% to 98 million Euros and a contribution margin of 87%.
Positive Developments in Payments Segment
Payments segment revenue increased by 17% year-on-year, driven by a mix effect in the acquiring business and a higher proportion of international cards.
Strong Nine-Month Financial Performance
For the first nine months, Global Blue reported a 20% increase in revenue to 381 million Euros and a 34% increase in adjusted EBITDA to 154 million Euros.
Decrease in Net Debt
Net debt decreased by 34 million Euros to 488 million Euros, resulting in a significant improvement in the net leverage ratio to 2.6 times from 3.6 times last year.
Positive Outlook and Reiterated Guidance
The company reiterated its guidance for the full year 2024-2025, expecting to achieve towards the top half of the range of 185 million to 205 million Euros in adjusted EBITDA.
Acquisition by Shift4
Global Blue announced its acquisition by Shift4, valuing the company at an enterprise value of $2.5 billion, with a 15% premium on common shares.
Negative Updates
Loss of a Major Client in FX Solutions
The FX Solutions segment was negatively impacted by the loss of a significant client in Japan, which affected revenue growth comparisons.
Increase in Net Finance Costs
There was a 7 million Euro increase in net finance costs compared to December last year, primarily due to higher interest rates on senior debt.
Lower Contribution Growth in Payments
Despite revenue growth, contribution growth in the Payments segment was lower due to the mix effect, as the acquiring business, which has a lower margin, grew faster than FX Solutions.
Company Guidance
During the call, Jacques Stern, CEO of Global Blue, reiterated the company's full-year 2024-2025 guidance for adjusted EBITDA, estimating it to be between 185 million and 205 million Euros. He expressed confidence in achieving the higher end of this range based on the company's strong financial performance in the past nine months, which included a 20% increase in revenue to 381 million Euros and a 34% rise in adjusted EBITDA to 154 million Euros. This robust performance was attributed to significant growth across all divisions, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin increase by more than 4 points, now exceeding 40%. The call also highlighted Global Blue's strategic acquisition by Shift4, valuing the company at an enterprise value of 2.5 billion dollars, with closing expected in the third quarter of 2025.

Global Blue Group Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Global Blue Group Holding exhibits strong financial recovery with notable revenue growth and profitability improvements. While cash flow remains robust, the high debt-to-equity ratio indicates significant leverage, requiring careful monitoring.
Income Statement
67
Positive
Global Blue Group Holding has shown a strong recovery in recent years with a solid revenue growth rate of 20.28% year-over-year from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin stands at 74.98%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has improved to 16.60% in 2025 from a low base, reflecting better profitability but suggests room for further enhancement. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 26.51% and 48.52%, respectively.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.39, indicating significant leverage. However, the equity ratio has improved to 11.06% in 2025, suggesting a strengthening financial position. Return on equity (ROE) is robust at 65.17%, driven by recent profitability improvements. Despite these positives, the company's high leverage remains a risk.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 36.47% year-over-year from 2024 to 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.91, indicating strong cash generation relative to profitability. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.30 further highlights the company's effective cash management.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue507.88M422.30M311.49M125.95M44.70M
Gross Profit380.88M310.51M219.04M90.02M30.13M
EBITDA246.40M145.16M60.06M-16.60M-55.77M
Net Income84.31M13.97M-23.50M-94.69M-423.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.17B1.09B1.16B853.43M961.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments123.78M87.46M240.55M51.69M182.78M
Total Debt568.25M612.44M788.84M733.77M733.43M
Total Liabilities1.03B1.02B1.15B1.04B1.03B
Stockholders Equity129.38M61.92M373.00K-191.53M-76.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow110.02M80.64M-34.96M-108.10M-124.37M
Operating Cash Flow160.91M120.07M-1.08M-87.00M-103.15M
Investing Cash Flow-45.61M-39.63M-70.65M-31.04M-72.60M
Financing Cash Flow-81.88M-233.80M258.19M-14.37M134.11M

Global Blue Group Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.49
Price Trends
50DMA
7.42
Positive
100DMA
7.41
Positive
200DMA
7.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
66.16
Neutral
STOCH
84.13
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.43, above the 50-day MA of 7.42, and above the 200-day MA of 7.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB.

Global Blue Group Holding Risk Analysis

Global Blue Group Holding disclosed 5 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global Blue Group Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Global Blue Group Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$2.40B25.2613.86%13.02%-2.57%
73
Outperform
$1.56B52.072.89%4.32%22.46%
73
Outperform
$3.16B7.7114.59%1.44%0.09%5.38%
64
Neutral
$1.49B16.7886.27%19.11%459.97%
61
Neutral
$35.55B8.91-10.55%1.87%8.47%-8.26%
60
Neutral
$2.06B1,189.16-1.17%8.04%39.57%
56
Neutral
$4.70B8.73-8.77%-20.82%-154.29%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB
Global Blue Group Holding
7.49
2.41
47.44%
PAGS
Pagseguro Digital
9.60
0.70
7.87%
STNE
Stoneco
17.30
6.12
54.74%
PAYO
Payoneer
6.65
-0.49
-6.86%
TUYA
Tuya
2.52
1.18
88.06%
AVDX
AvidXchange Holdings
9.94
1.91
23.79%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 08, 2025