Global Blue Group Holding (GB) AI Stock Analysis

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Global Blue Group Holding

(NYSE:GB)

Rating:62Neutral

Price Target:

$8.00

▲(8.40%Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily driven by strong financial performance and profitability improvements, albeit tempered by high leverage. Neutral technical signals and moderate valuation further influence the score.

Global Blue Group Holding (GB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.47B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)50.10K

Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6

Beta (1Y)0.19

Revenue Growth19.11%

EPS Growth459.97%

CountryUS

Employees1,939

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength91

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.07

Shares Outstanding199,366,170

10 Day Avg. Volume40,918

30 Day Avg. Volume50,098

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.36

Price to Book (P/B)9.73

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio11.42

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$6.00

Price Target Upside-18.70% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

Global Blue Group Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal Blue Group Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-enabled transaction processing services for merchants, banks, acquirers, governments, and travelers in Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Tax Free Shopping Technology Solutions (TFSS), Added-Value Payment Solutions (AVPS), and Complementary Retail Tech Solutions (CRTS). It offers TFSS, a value added tax (VAT) refund service that allows eligible shoppers to reclaim VAT on goods purchased outside of their home country; and intelligence and marketing services. The company also provides AVPS, a service which enables customers to pay in their choice of preferred currency, home or destination, at the point of sale (POS) when shopping outside of their home country under the Dynamic Currency Choice and Currency Select brands. In addition, it offers currency conversion services for POS, e-commerce return solutions, dynamic currency conversion (DCC) services, and DCC services at ATMs, as well as multi-currency processing services for online retailers. Further, the company provides ZigZag, a technology platform that fully digitalizes the eCommerce returns experience and enhances the process for both retailers and consumers; and Yocuda that enables retailers to send digital receipts to their customers. Global Blue Group Holding AG was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Wangen-Brüttisellen, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal Blue makes money primarily through its tax refund services, where it facilitates VAT/GST refunds for international travelers who shop abroad. The company charges a commission on the refund amount processed for travelers, which is a key revenue stream. Additionally, Global Blue generates revenue from its dynamic currency conversion services, where it earns a margin on currency exchange rates when international shoppers choose to pay in their home currency. The company also partners with retailers to provide marketing services that increase store footfall and sales, receiving fees for these services. Significant partnerships with retailers, airports, and financial institutions strengthen Global Blue's market position and contribute to its earnings.

Global Blue Group Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 04, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: -0.94%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong revenue and EBITDA growth across all divisions, significant improvements in financial health indicators, and confidence in achieving the higher end of the annual financial guidance. However, these positives were somewhat offset by the loss of a significant client in Japan, increased finance costs, and lower contribution growth in the Payments segment.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Acquisition by Shift4

Global Blue was acquired by Shift4 for $7.50 per common share, a 15% premium over the closing share price, valuing the company at an enterprise value of $2.5 billion.

Strong Revenue Growth

The Group delivered revenue of 131 million Euros in Q3, a 20% year-on-year increase, with significant progress across all divisions.

Impressive EBITDA Increase

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 31% year-on-year to 52 million Euros, resulting in an improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.4 points to 39.7%.

Tax Free Shopping Solutions Growth

Tax Free Shopping Solutions accounted for 74% of Group revenue, with a revenue growth of 22% to 98 million Euros and completed Sales-in-Stores growth of 21%.

Improvement in Net Income

Group adjusted net income increased by 58% to 14 million Euros compared to 9 million Euros last year.

Reduction in Net Leverage Ratio

Net leverage ratio improved to 2.6 times from 3.6 times last year, showing a significant improvement in financial health.

Negative Updates

Loss of Significant Client in Japan

FX Solutions lost a significant client in Japan earlier in the year, negatively impacting revenue growth comparison versus last year.

Increased Net Finance Costs

Net finance costs increased by 7 million Euros due to higher interest rates on senior debt.

Lower Contribution Growth in Payments

Despite revenue growth, contribution growth in the Payments segment was lower due to the mix effect, with acquiring business growing faster than FX Solutions but with lower margins.

Company Guidance

During the call, Global Blue provided guidance for the fiscal year 2024-2025, reiterating their expectation to achieve an adjusted EBITDA in the range of €185 million to €205 million. The company anticipates reaching the upper half of this range, based on the improvement observed in the last 12 months' adjusted EBITDA over the recent three quarters. Jacques Stern, CEO, emphasized the company's strong performance over the nine-month period, highlighting significant growth in revenue, EBITDA, margins, and drop-through rates. The guidance comes amid the recent announcement of Global Blue’s acquisition by Shift4, expected to close in Q3 2025, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Global Blue Group Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Global Blue Group Holding exhibits strong financial recovery with notable revenue growth and profitability improvements. While cash flow remains robust, the high debt-to-equity ratio indicates significant leverage, requiring careful monitoring.

Income Statement

Positive

Global Blue Group Holding has shown a strong recovery in recent years with a solid revenue growth rate of 20.28% year-over-year from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin stands at 74.98%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has improved to 16.60% in 2025 from a low base, reflecting better profitability but suggests room for further enhancement. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 26.51% and 48.52%, respectively.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.39, indicating significant leverage. However, the equity ratio has improved to 11.06% in 2025, suggesting a strengthening financial position. Return on equity (ROE) is robust at 65.17%, driven by recent profitability improvements. Despite these positives, the company's high leverage remains a risk.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 36.47% year-over-year from 2024 to 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.91, indicating strong cash generation relative to profitability. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.30 further highlights the company's effective cash management.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	507.88M	422.30M	311.49M	125.95M	44.70M
Gross Profit	380.88M	310.51M	219.04M	90.02M	30.13M
EBITDA	246.40M	145.16M	60.06M	-16.60M	-55.77M
Net Income	84.31M	13.97M	-23.50M	-94.69M	-423.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.17B	1.09B	1.16B	853.43M	961.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	123.78M	87.46M	240.55M	51.69M	182.78M
Total Debt	568.25M	612.44M	788.84M	733.77M	733.43M
Total Liabilities	1.03B	1.02B	1.15B	1.04B	1.03B
Stockholders Equity	129.38M	61.92M	373.00K	-191.53M	-76.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	110.02M	80.64M	-34.96M	-108.10M	-124.37M
Operating Cash Flow	160.91M	120.07M	-1.08M	-87.00M	-103.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-45.61M	-39.63M	-70.65M	-31.04M	-72.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-81.88M	-233.80M	258.19M	-14.37M	134.11M

Global Blue Group Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price7.38

Price Trends

50DMA

7.42

Negative

100DMA

7.40

Negative

200DMA

6.84

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.02

Negative

RSI

45.99

Neutral

STOCH

71.43

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.40, below the 50-day MA of 7.42, and above the 200-day MA of 6.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB.

Global Blue Group Holding Risk Analysis

Global Blue Group Holding disclosed 5 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global Blue Group Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Global Blue Group Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TUYA	73 Outperform	$1.54B	74.85	1.98%	4.22%	27.63%	―
PAYO	71 Outperform	$2.47B	22.88	15.97%	―	14.86%	-0.94%
PAGS	64 Neutral	$2.70B	6.67	14.36%	0.20%	2.38%	9.88%
GB	62 Neutral	$1.47B	16.56	86.27%	―	19.11%	459.97%
AVDX	61 Neutral	$2.03B	1,186.75	0.27%	―	10.46%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	€9.27B	16.99	3.87%	1.81%	4.19%	-25.91%
STNE	56 Neutral	$3.82B	8.73	-8.85%	―	-14.03%	-167.03%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

Global Blue Group Holding

7.38

2.30

45.28%

PAGS

Pagseguro Digital

8.20

-4.67

-36.29%

STNE

Stoneco

14.07

0.90

6.83%

PAYO

Payoneer

6.81

1.44

26.82%

TUYA

Tuya

2.58

1.11

75.51%

AVDX

AvidXchange Holdings

9.85

-2.64

-21.14%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025