First Solar (FSLR)
NASDAQ:FSLR
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First Solar
(NASDAQ:FSLR)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$232.00
▲(24.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
Overall score reflects strong financial performance (high profitability and a very conservative balance sheet) and reasonable valuation, partially offset by weak technical momentum and earnings-call risks tied to backlog reduction, tariff/cost headwinds, and reliance on Section 45X credits for near-term margins.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet and low leverage
A very conservative balance sheet with low leverage and rising equity provides durable financial flexibility to fund large capex, cushion policy or tariff shocks, and support multi-year project development cycles. This capital strength reduces refinancing risk and preserves optionality for strategic investments or downturns.
Negative Factors
Heavy reliance on Section 45X tax credits for near-term margins
Material dependence on Section 45X credits to achieve guided margins creates structural policy risk: if credits change, are delayed, or monetization slows, reported profitability and cash flows would materially compress. Long-dated project economics and customer contracts may not fully offset abrupt tax-credit shifts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet and low leverage
A very conservative balance sheet with low leverage and rising equity provides durable financial flexibility to fund large capex, cushion policy or tariff shocks, and support multi-year project development cycles. This capital strength reduces refinancing risk and preserves optionality for strategic investments or downturns.
Read all positive factors
First Solar (FSLR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.94B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth31.16%
EPS Growth11.97%
CountryUS
Employees8,100
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySolar
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.84
Shares Outstanding107,311,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,685,654
30 Day Avg. Volume2,320,725
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.94
Price to Sales (P/S)5.37
P/FCF Ratio23.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$248.22Price Target Upside33.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)18.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.17B
First Solar Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
First Solar, Inc. provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United State, Japan, France, Canada, India, Australia, and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunli...
How the Company Makes Money
First Solar generates revenue primarily through the sale of its solar modules and the development of solar power projects. The company earns money from two main segments: Manufacturing and Project Development. In the Manufacturing segment, First S...
First Solar Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Megawatts Produced
Indicates the total energy output generated, showcasing the company's production capacity and efficiency in meeting energy demands.
Indicates the total energy output generated, showcasing the company's production capacity and efficiency in meeting energy demands.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFirst Solar Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mixture of strong operating achievements—record module shipments, double-digit revenue and EPS growth, robust cash generation, U.S. capacity expansion, and material technology progress (CURE and perovskites)—alongside meaningful near-term headwinds including backlog reductions, tariff-driven margin pressure, underutilized international capacity, elevated warehousing and start-up costs, and ongoing warranty/litigation exposure. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance with sizeable adjusted EBITDA and reiterated liquidity and strategic priorities, but the near-term profitability picture relies materially on Section 45X tax credits and resolution of trade/policy dynamics. Overall, positives (record sales, improved EPS, strong liquidity, technology and capacity progress, and clear guidance) slightly outweigh the lowlights, though execution risks remain material.Positive Updates
Record Module Shipments and Revenue Growth
Sold a record 17.5 GW of modules in 2025; full-year net sales of $5.2 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase.
Negative Updates
Backlog Reduction and Net Debookings
Contracted backlog declined from 68.5 GW ($20.5B) at 12/31/2024 to 50.1 GW ($15.0B) at year-end 2025 — approximately a 26.9% decline in volume and ~26.8% decline in backlog value; full-year gross bookings 7.4 GW vs. debookings 8.3 GW resulting in net debookings of 0.9 GW.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Module Shipments and Revenue Growth
Sold a record 17.5 GW of modules in 2025; full-year net sales of $5.2 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
First Solar's 2026 guidance targets net sales of $4.9–$5.2 billion and gross margin of $2.5–$2.6 billion (~49.5%), which includes $2.1–$2.19 billion of Section 45X tax credits; adjusted EBITDA is guided to $2.6–$2.8 billion. Volume and capacity assumptions include spectrum volumes sold of 17.0–18.2 GW, forecast production of 16.5–17.5 GW (U.S. production 13.0–13.3 GW), U.S. nameplate capacity of 14.9 GW and global nameplate capacity of 19 GW; Q1 expects 3.4–4.0 GW of module sales, $330–$400 million of Section 45X and $400–$500 million of adjusted EBITDA. Price and cost assumptions include a U.S. ASP of ~$0.308/W and global ASP recognized of ~$0.287/W, cost per watt sold of ~$0.267/W (ex-45X) with an approximate $0.03/W improvement including 45X, cost/W released from inventory up ~$0.02/W, sales rates ~$0.014/W, and a total tariff impact of $155–$175 million (net of recoveries $125–$135 million). Operating and cash items: ramp/underutilization expense $115–$155 million, start-up expense $110–$120 million, warehousing costs ~ $200 million (targeting ~$100 million run-rate in 2027), SG&A $215–$225 million, R&D $285–$290 million (combined SG&A+R&D $500–$515 million, including ~$100 million for perovskite), CapEx $800 million–$1 billion, and expected year‑end gross/net cash of $1.7–$2.3 billion with planned prepayment of the India DFC facility by 06/30/2026.First Solar Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.22B | 4.21B | 3.32B | 2.62B | 2.92B |
| Gross Profit | 2.12B | 1.86B | 1.30B | 69.86M | 729.95M |
| EBITDA | 2.15B | 1.87B | 1.21B | 290.55M | 845.17M |
| Net Income | 1.53B | 1.29B | 830.78M | -44.17M | 468.69M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.32B | 12.12B | 10.37B | 8.25B | 7.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.86B | 1.79B | 2.10B | 2.58B | 1.83B |
| Total Debt | 498.57M | 718.80M | 624.39M | 234.13M | 398.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.78B | 4.15B | 3.68B | 2.42B | 1.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.54B | 7.98B | 6.69B | 5.84B | 5.96B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.19B | -308.08M | -784.51M | -30.24M | -302.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.06B | 1.22B | 602.26M | 873.37M | 237.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -765.17M | -1.56B | -472.79M | -1.19B | -99.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -119.23M | 24.85M | 336.85M | 309.39M | 40.55M |
First Solar Technical Analysis
Negative
185.83
Price Trends
217.98
Negative
239.47
Negative
217.75
Negative
Market Momentum
-7.99
Negative
34.05
Neutral
29.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FSLR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 185.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 195.61, below the 50-day MA of 217.98, and below the 200-day MA of 217.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FSLR.
First Solar Risk Analysis
First Solar disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First Solar reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
First Solar Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $17.79B | 24.63 | 31.28% | ― | 20.37% | 3.46% | |
71 Outperform | $19.94B | 18.33 | 17.32% | ― | 31.16% | 11.97% | |
62 Neutral | $5.27B | 27.11 | 18.25% | ― | 20.97% | 226.98% | |
62 Neutral | $3.03B | -4.26 | -80.50% | ― | -0.14% | 66.71% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
53 Neutral | $1.11B | -26.92 | -15.43% | ― | 35.75% | 37.97% | |
47 Neutral | $2.91B | 10.33 | 15.46% | ― | 13.79% | -527.48% |
* Technology Sector Average
FSLR
First Solar
185.83
58.51
45.96%
ENPH
Enphase Energy
40.18
-21.47
-34.83%
SEDG
SolarEdge Technologies
50.27
34.42
217.16%
RUN
Sunrun
12.40
6.46
108.75%
ARRY
Array Technologies
7.28
2.20
43.31%
NXT
Nextpower Inc
119.85
76.70
177.75%
First Solar Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
First Solar Secures $1.5 Billion Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 13, 2026, First Solar entered into a five-year senior unsecured revolving credit facility of $1.5 billion, including a $450 million sub-limit for letters of credit, with JPMorgan Chase as administrative agent and a syndicate of lenders...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.