First Solar (FSLR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $21.45B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 31.16%
• EPS Growth: 11.97%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,100
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Solar
• EPS (TTM): 4.84
• Shares Outstanding: 107,311,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,375,336
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,647,370
• PEG Ratio: 1.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.76
• 1Y Price Target: $253.57
• Price Target Upside: 26.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 24
• EPS Forecast (FY): 18.84
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.28B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $232.00 ▲(16.08% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

Overall score reflects strong financial performance (high profitability and a very conservative balance sheet) and reasonable valuation, partially offset by weak technical momentum and earnings-call risks tied to backlog reduction, tariff/cost headwinds, and reliance on Section 45X credits for near-term margins.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet and low leverage

A very conservative balance sheet with low leverage and rising equity provides durable financial flexibility to fund large capex, cushion policy or tariff shocks, and support multi-year project development cycles. This capital strength reduces refinancing risk and preserves optionality for strategic investments or downturns.

Accelerating revenue growth with strong margins

Sustained revenue acceleration to ~$5.2B and very high recent net margins indicate the business model is scaling profitably. Durable margin performance reflects manufacturing advantage and project economics, supporting reinvestment in capacity and R&D while providing ongoing cash generation potential across subsequent years.

Technology advances and IP protection (CURE, perovskite)

Progress on CURE rollout and perovskite pilot lines, plus IP defense actions, represent structural competitive advantages. Technology-driven cost and efficiency gains can lower unit costs and improve module performance over time, strengthening pricing power and creating a meaningful moat versus commodity silicon peers.

Negative Factors

Heavy reliance on Section 45X tax credits for near-term margins

Material dependence on Section 45X credits to achieve guided margins creates structural policy risk: if credits change, are delayed, or monetization slows, reported profitability and cash flows would materially compress. Long-dated project economics and customer contracts may not fully offset abrupt tax-credit shifts.

Meaningful backlog decline and net debookings

A substantial reduction in contracted backlog and net debookings weakens revenue visibility over multiple years. It signals pricing, contract, or demand friction which can depress utilization and force margin concessions, making multi-year capacity planning and cash flow forecasting more uncertain for durable project pipelines.

Underutilized international capacity and elevated operating costs

Persistent underutilization of overseas Series 6 plants, plus high ramp, warehousing and start-up charges, raise fixed-cost absorption risk and depress core unit economics. These structural cost pressures reduce durable cash generation and require execution to shift volumes or repurpose capacity to restore sustainable margins.

First Solar Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Solar, Inc. provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United State, Japan, France, Canada, India, Australia, and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunlight into electricity. It serves developers and operators of systems, utilities, independent power producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

First Solar generates revenue primarily through the sale of its solar modules and the development of solar power projects. The company earns money from two main segments: Manufacturing and Project Development. In the Manufacturing segment, First Solar sells its thin-film solar panels to utility companies, commercial customers, and distributors. The Project Development segment includes revenue from the construction and operation of utility-scale solar power plants, where the company often partners with other energy firms to finance and develop projects. Additionally, First Solar benefits from long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) that provide predictable revenue streams over the lifespan of the solar installations. Significant partnerships with energy providers, government incentives, and tax credits also play a crucial role in enhancing the company's profitability.

First Solar Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent fundamentals: accelerating revenue to ~$5.2B (2025) with very high profitability in 2024–2025, plus a conservative balance sheet with very low leverage and rising equity. Main offset is cash-flow inconsistency (several years of negative FCF and 2025 FCF below net income), indicating weaker earnings-to-cash conversion and volatility risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has accelerated meaningfully over the last two annual periods (2024 and 2025), with 2025 reaching about $5.2B and showing strong growth versus prior years. Profitability is a clear strength: 2024–2025 delivered very high gross and net margins (net margin ~29–31%), and earnings expanded sharply from the 2022 loss to strong profitability in 2023–2025. The main weakness is historical volatility—2022 showed a steep margin collapse and a net loss—so while the recent trajectory is excellent, the longer-term pattern shows earnings can swing.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks very conservative, with low leverage across the period (debt-to-equity roughly ~4% to ~9% historically and ~5% in 2025). Equity has grown substantially (to ~$9.5B in 2025), supporting a stronger capital base as the business scales. Returns on equity are strong in 2023–2025 (~12% to ~16%), though they were negative in 2022 due to losses, highlighting that profitability still drives the quality of returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved dramatically in 2025, with operating cash flow rising to ~$2.1B and free cash flow turning strongly positive (~$1.2B) after being negative in 2023–2024. That said, cash flow has been inconsistent: free cash flow was meaningfully negative in 2021, 2023, and 2024, indicating periods of heavier investment and/or working-capital swings. In 2025, free cash flow covered only about 58% of net income, suggesting a portion of reported earnings did not translate into free cash flow in that year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.22B	4.21B	3.32B	2.62B	2.92B
Gross Profit	2.12B	1.86B	1.30B	69.86M	729.95M
EBITDA	2.15B	1.87B	1.21B	290.55M	845.17M
Net Income	1.53B	1.29B	830.78M	-44.17M	468.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.32B	12.12B	10.37B	8.25B	7.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.86B	1.79B	2.10B	2.58B	1.83B
Total Debt	498.57M	718.80M	624.39M	234.13M	398.59M
Total Liabilities	3.78B	4.15B	3.68B	2.42B	1.45B
Stockholders Equity	9.54B	7.98B	6.69B	5.84B	5.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.19B	-308.08M	-784.51M	-30.24M	-302.73M
Operating Cash Flow	2.06B	1.22B	602.26M	873.37M	237.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-765.17M	-1.56B	-472.79M	-1.19B	-99.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-119.23M	24.85M	336.85M	309.39M	40.55M

First Solar Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 199.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FSLR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 199.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 225.77, below the 50-day MA of 241.53, and below the 200-day MA of 214.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FSLR.

First Solar Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NXT	80 Outperform	$15.40B	26.50	33.29%	―	20.37%	3.46%
FSLR	71 Outperform	$21.45B	14.07	17.45%	―	31.16%	11.97%
ENPH	62 Neutral	$5.86B	34.64	17.93%	―	20.97%	226.98%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SEDG	60 Neutral	$2.45B	-5.90	-74.68%	―	-0.14%	66.71%
ARRY	52 Neutral	$1.16B	-10.30	-19.02%	―	35.75%	37.97%
RUN	46 Neutral	$2.94B	7.29	15.90%	―	13.79%	-527.48%

First Solar Corporate Events

First Solar Secures $1.5 Billion Revolving Credit Facility

On February 13, 2026, First Solar entered into a five-year senior unsecured revolving credit facility of $1.5 billion, including a $450 million sub-limit for letters of credit, with JPMorgan Chase as administrative agent and a syndicate of lenders. The facility, which can be upsized by an additional $1 billion and extended by up to two years, enhances the company’s liquidity for working capital and general corporate purposes while imposing leverage, interest coverage, and other covenants that may influence its capital structure, investment flexibility, and shareholder distributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (FSLR) stock is a Buy with a $326.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Solar stock, see the FSLR Stock Forecast page.