Publicis Groupe (PUB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €19.23B
• Dividend Yield: 4.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 542.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 9.88%
• EPS Growth: 16.84%
• Country: FR
• Employees: 107,273
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): 3.97
• Shares Outstanding: 254,311,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 556,538
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 542,367
• PEG Ratio: -22.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €105.14
• Price Target Upside: 37.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: €85.00 ▲(10.85% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (steady growth and strong free-cash-flow conversion) and supportive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals, with the price below key moving averages and negative MACD indicating a downtrend despite oversold readings.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

High and repeatable free cash flow with ~0.90–0.94 conversion to net income and a large 2025 step-up supports durable capital allocation: funds dividends, investment in digital capabilities, and deleveraging. Strong cash conversion is a multi-year indicator of earnings quality and resilience.

Steady revenue and improving profitability

Consistent top-line growth and a rising net margin through 2025 indicate improving operating leverage and pricing power. Sustained revenue expansion coupled with mid-teens operating margins supports longer-term cash flows and competitiveness across advertising and consulting services.

Diversified global business and tech partnerships

A broad service mix (creative, media, data, consulting) and marquee agency brands reduce client concentration risk and enable cross-selling. Strategic partnerships with major tech platforms strengthen media buying and data analytics capabilities, a structural competitive advantage in digital advertising.

Negative Factors

2025 re-leveraging trend

The uptick in leverage by 2025 reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises interest-rate and refinancing risk. Higher net debt constrains strategic optionality for M&A or share buybacks and increases vulnerability to earnings shocks over the medium term.

Margin and cash-flow volatility

Unusual gross-margin readings and intermittent negative free-cash-flow years point to recurring mix, booking or working-capital swings. Such volatility reduces predictability of earnings and cash, complicating planning for reinvestment and long-term margin sustainability.

Weak recent EPS growth

Substantial negative EPS growth over the measured period signals pressure on reported earnings from non-operational items, buybacks, currency, or restructuring. Persistent EPS weakness can erode investor confidence and limits scope for dividend increases despite strong cash generation.

Publicis Groupe Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Publicis Groupe S.A. provides marketing, communications, and digital business transformation services in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. The company offers advisory services for brand strategy, and repositioning and their identity under the Publicis Worldwide, Saatchi & Saatchi, Leo Burnett, Marcel, Fallon, and BBH brands; online advertising services under the Razorfish and Moxie brand names; crisis communications, media relations, public affairs, financial communications, and strategy and event management services; media consulting, planning, and buying services; performance marketing services; and e-commerce services to optimize distribution channels. It also designs and delivers brand content for various channels, such as television, print, radio, cinema, and billboards, as well as digital, including display, social networks, Internet video, etc. under the Prodigious, Harbor, and The Pub brand names. In addition, the company operates Epsilon PeopleCloud, a unified data and technology platform; and Publicis Sapient, a technological, digital, and consulting platform for automotive, consumer products, energy and raw materials, retail, financial services, healthcare, media-telecoms, and travel and hospitality sectors. Further, it provides healthcare communication services under the Digitas Health, Publicis Health Media, and Saatchi & Saatchi Wellness brands for the healthcare and well-being sectors. The company serves clients in the non-food consumer products, finance, automotive, TMT, healthcare, food and beverage, leisure and travel, energy and industry, retail, and public and other sectors. Publicis Groupe S.A. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Publicis Groupe generates revenue primarily through its advertising and marketing services. The company earns money by charging clients for creative services, media purchasing, and digital marketing solutions. Key revenue streams include fees from client campaigns, commissions on media buys, and retainers for ongoing consulting services. Additionally, Publicis has established significant partnerships with technology companies and platforms, such as Google and Facebook, which enhance its media buying capabilities and data analytics services. The company's emphasis on digital transformation and data-driven marketing strategies has further bolstered its revenue growth, enabling it to capture a larger share of the advertising market.

Publicis Groupe Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are above average: steady revenue growth into 2025, healthy operating profitability, and strong earnings quality supported by consistently high free-cash-flow conversion. Key risks are the 2025 re-leveraging (higher debt vs. 2024) and some margin/cash-flow volatility, including an unusual 2025 gross margin reading that reduces comparability.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily from 2021–2025, with an acceleration in 2025 (2025 revenue growth ~3.2% vs. near-flat in 2024). Profitability is solid and improving over the period: net margin rose from ~5.3% (2020) to ~9.5% (2025) and operating margin remains healthy (~13–15% range in recent years). Offsetting this, margins softened slightly in 2025 versus 2024 (net and EBITDA margin both lower), and the 2025 gross margin appears unusually low versus prior years, suggesting potential one-off mix/booking effects or classification differences that add noise to year-to-year comparability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate: debt to equity improved meaningfully from 2020 (~0.93) to 2024 (~0.47), but ticked up in 2025 (~0.72) alongside higher total debt. Equity remains sizeable (~€10.4B in 2025) and returns on equity improved over time to ~15.8% in 2025, indicating efficient profitability on the capital base. The main risk is the 2025 re-leveraging trend, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility versus 2024 despite stable asset size.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength: free cash flow is consistently high and closely tracks net income (free cash flow to net income ~0.90–0.94 across years), supporting earnings quality. 2025 shows a strong step-up in cash performance with operating cash flow rising to ~€3.0B and free cash flow up to ~€2.7B (free cash flow growth ~28.9%). The main weakness is volatility in free cash flow growth (negative in 2021 and 2023), indicating periodic working-capital or timing swings even though overall conversion remains strong.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.40B	16.03B	14.80B	14.20B	11.74B
Gross Profit	2.44B	6.94B	6.40B	2.06B	1.64B
EBITDA	3.12B	3.15B	2.68B	2.88B	2.12B
Net Income	1.65B	1.66B	1.31B	1.22B	1.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.01B	39.85B	36.72B	35.90B	32.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.20B	3.82B	4.25B	4.62B	3.66B
Total Debt	7.48B	5.17B	5.54B	6.17B	5.72B
Total Liabilities	29.59B	28.82B	26.97B	26.30B	24.29B
Stockholders Equity	10.45B	11.06B	9.79B	9.63B	8.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.72B	2.06B	1.87B	2.20B	1.57B
Operating Cash Flow	2.97B	2.30B	2.05B	2.40B	1.71B
Investing Cash Flow	-958.00M	-1.12B	-348.00M	-752.00M	-419.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.02B	-2.01B	-1.75B	-980.00M	-1.58B

Publicis Groupe Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 76.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:PUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 76.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.91, below the 50-day MA of 86.08, and below the 200-day MA of 85.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:PUB.

Publicis Groupe Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HCO	79 Outperform	€72.66M	13.63	4.71%	5.16%	-21.70%	-49.75%
ALREW	73 Outperform	€92.58M	3.75	12.60%	1.29%	-3.53%	28.87%
DEC	72 Outperform	€3.54B	14.73	11.69%	3.60%	5.80%	-9.84%
PUB	71 Outperform	€19.23B	11.65	17.51%	4.10%	9.88%	16.84%
ALBLD	65 Neutral	€68.78M	13.42	―	―	21.20%	13.12%
ALHOP	61 Neutral	€36.98M	10.17	―	4.85%	11.03%	-37.78%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%