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Farmland (FPI)
NYSE:FPI
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Farmland
(NYSE:FPI)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
â–²(3.01% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by improving balance-sheet strength but mixed financial quality (choppy revenue and volatile cash-flow coverage). Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum. Valuation is reasonable but not compelling given the P/E, while the earnings call was net positive on capital structure and shareholder returns despite softer 2026 guidance and impairment-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Material reduction in leverage meaningfully improves financial flexibility and lowers interest sensitivity. A lower debt-to-equity ratio supports capacity for opportunistic acquisitions, dividend sustainability and resilience to crop/commodity cycles over the next several months.
AFFO and Cash Generation
Sustained positive AFFO and a rebound in operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for distributions and debt service. Consistent free cash flow underpins the 50% dividend increase and supports shareholder returns even if revenues shift seasonally.
Liquidity & Loan‑Program Growth
Significant undrawn credit lines and an expanded Farmer Mac facility increase optionality for portfolio optimization and liquidity management. Growth in the loan program diversifies revenue sources and can provide steady fee income and countercyclical demand.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline from Dispositions
Active disposition program has trimmed the recurring rental base, reducing stable revenue. Over the next 2–6 months, ongoing sales without offsetting acquisitions will depress recurring cash revenue and make growth and AFFO reliant on realized gains and portfolio reinvestment execution.
Impairment and California Exposure
A sizable impairment signals asset-level valuation risk and weaker market pricing in parts of the portfolio. Liquidating California holdings may crystallize losses, constrain near-term proceeds, and increase execution risk for disposition-driven returns and portfolio rebalancing.
Volatile Cash Coverage & Choppy Revenue
Choppy revenue and inconsistent cash coverage reduce predictability of AFFO and dividend sustainability. Timing effects and one-offs have produced swings in cash vs. earnings, complicating capital planning and increasing reliance on credit lines or asset sales to smooth distributions.
Farmland (FPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$549.45M
Dividend Yield14.23%
Average Volume (3M)601.39K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.9
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth-9.27%
EPS Growth333.85%
CountryUS
Employees23
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.44
Shares Outstanding43,537,888
10 Day Avg. Volume860,160
30 Day Avg. Volume601,394
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)8.21
P/FCF Ratio24.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.50Price Target Upside-0.95% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.56M
Farmland Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFarmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed real estate company that owns and seeks to acquire high-quality North American farmland and makes loans to farmers secured by farm real estate. As of the date of this release, the Company owns approximately 155,000 acres in 16 states, including Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota and Virginia. We have approximately 26 crop types and over 100 tenants. The Company elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust, or REIT, for U.S. federal income tax purposes, commencing with the taxable year ended December 31, 2014.
How the Company Makes MoneyFarmland Partners generates revenue primarily through leasing its farmland to farmers, who pay rent on a per-acre basis. This rental income is the company's main revenue stream and can come from both fixed-rate leases and variable-rate leases, which may depend on the crop yield or market prices. Additionally, Farmland may earn income from capital appreciation of its land holdings as farmland values rise over time. The company focuses on maintaining a diversified portfolio of agricultural properties across various states, minimizing risk and enhancing revenue stability. Strategic partnerships with agricultural producers and market participants also play a crucial role in optimizing land use and increasing profitability.
Farmland Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Revenue By Segment
Shows revenue generated from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability, and indicating the company's strategic focus.
Shows revenue generated from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability, and indicating the company's strategic focus.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFarmland Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful progress on capital structure and cash-flow metrics — redemption of preferred equity, a 50% dividend increase, reduced debt and $9.2M lower interest expense, improved AFFO and greater liquidity — demonstrating operational discipline and shareholder-friendly actions. Offsetting these positives are declines in reported net income, a $17M impairment tied to West Coast assets, ~ $6M lower operating revenue due to prior dispositions, and management's cautious 2026 guidance (lower expected net income and AFFO). On balance the positives around balance sheet simplification, cash flow (AFFO), dividend increase and access to capital/lending programs materially outweigh the near-term earnings headwinds and localized portfolio impairments.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved AFFO and Strong Q4 Performance
AFFO was $17.9 million for FY2025 and $11.4 million for Q4 2025 (or $0.39 and $0.26 per weighted average share, respectively), which management reported as higher than the same periods in 2024. Management described Q4 as very strong and noted seasonality contributed to strong Q4 revenue recognition.
Dividend Increase
Quarterly common dividend increased by 50% to $0.09 per share, driven by increased AFFO and management's confidence in cash flow sustainability.
Balance Sheet Simplification — Preferred Redemption
Redeemed remaining 68,000 Series A preferred units in February 2026, removing the common stock overhang, simplifying capital structure and reducing senior claims to common shareholders.
Debt Reduction and Interest Expense Savings
Significant debt reductions since October 2024 resulted in a $9.2 million reduction in interest expense year over year; management emphasized lower leverage and improved liquidity.
Liquidity and Credit Capacity
Undrawn capacity on lines of credit was approximately $164.0 million at 12/31/2025 and about $111.7 million as of the call (net borrowing used to redeem preferred). Farmer Mac facility was successfully amended and increased from $75.0 million to $89.6 million.
Sale of Non-Core Business (MWA) and Ongoing Market Access
Sold Murray Wise (brokerage/auction/asset management subsidiary) to People's Company, reducing G&A and simplifying operations while maintaining a close working relationship to preserve market intelligence.
Loan Program Growth and Strong Returns
FPI loan program activity increased; management expects the loan program to be steady or grow, benefiting from countercyclical demand. One loan repriced in January at 5.19% and management expects refinancings around ~5.3% for Term Loan #1.
Selective Dispositions and Realized Asset Gains
Active disposition program with emphasis on portfolio optimization (notably California). Management noted many Illinois assets are up 30%+ since purchase and will sell opportunistically to realize gains and distribute to shareholders.
Negative Updates
Net Income Decline vs. Prior Year
Net income was $32.2 million for FY2025 and $21.8 million for Q4 2025 (or $0.65 and $0.49 per share, respectively), which management stated was lower than the same periods in 2024.
Revenue Decline Due to Dispositions
Total operating revenues declined by approximately $6.0 million year over year, primarily attributed to asset dispositions in 2024 and 2025 that reduced recurring revenue base.
Large Impairment Charge
Impairment of assets increased by $17.0 million related to certain West Coast properties (recorded in Q2 2025), reflecting realized losses in parts of the portfolio.
2026 Guidance Indicates Lower Profitability
Management's 2026 guidance forecasts net income of $8.8 million to $10.9 million and AFFO of $14.4 million to $16.4 million ($0.33 to $0.37 per share), both below FY2025 levels, signaling an expected decline in near-term profitability.
Variable Rent Uncertainty and Cautious Outlook
Variable payments were strong in Q4 2025 but management is taking a cautious stance on 2026 variable rent and crop-related revenues due to uncertainty in crop yields and pricing; a portion of the decline in expected revenue is attributed to a more conservative view of variable payments.
California Market Challenges
Management signaled they have 'soured on California' and plan gradual liquidation of much California exposure; while the market is reopening, pricing remains soft which limits near-term disposition proceeds and future revenue from those assets.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 net income of $8.8 million to $10.9 million and AFFO of $14.4 million to $16.4 million (or $0.33–$0.37 per share), after reporting 2025 net income of $32.2 million and AFFO of $17.9 million (Q4 net income $21.8 million; Q4 AFFO $11.4 million; AFFO per share 2025 $0.39, Q4 $0.26). The company raised its quarterly dividend 50% to $0.09 per share and noted key balance-sheet metrics: undrawn credit capacity of ~$164 million at 12/31/25 (≈$111.7 million as of today), Farmer Mac facility increased from $75.0 million to $89.6 million, roughly $26 million of debt with 2026 resets (one repriced to 5.19% in January), and Term Loan #1 expected to reprice around 5.3%. Guidance assumes no acquisitions or dispositions, reflects the full‑year impact of 2025 dispositions on Fixed Farm/Solar/Wind/Recreation rent, expects lower crop sales and crop‑insurance revenue, anticipates lower property operating expenses and depreciation/depletion/amortization (driven by dispositions) and higher interest expense from 2026 borrowings, and cites AFFO tailwinds from increased FPI loan‑program activity and lower interest expense from prior debt reductions (a $9.2M interest expense reduction since October 2024), while noting a $17M asset impairment recorded in 2025.Farmland Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Reported profitability is strong and leverage has improved materially (debt-to-equity down to ~0.35 by 2025), but revenue is uneven (notably declines in 2023 and a sharp drop in 2025) and cash-flow-to-earnings consistency is volatile, lowering confidence in repeatable cash earnings.Income Statement
Profitability is strong on paper, with very high gross and net margins across most years, indicating solid earnings power relative to revenue. However, the revenue line is choppy (including declines in 2023 and a sharp drop in 2025), and profitability appears volatile (notably an unusually high 2024 net margin above 100%), which raises questions about the durability and repeatability of earnings.66
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved meaningfully over time, with debt-to-equity declining from ~1.18 (2020) to ~0.35 (2025), which increases financial flexibility. Returns on equity peaked in 2024 and remained positive in 2025, but overall returns have been inconsistent across the period, suggesting earnings quality and asset productivity may fluctuate with valuation changes and/or one-time items.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Free cash flow is consistently positive, and 2025 shows a notable rebound in operating cash flow versus 2024. That said, cash generation relative to reported earnings has been uneven (very weak cash coverage in 2023–2024 versus extremely strong in 2025), pointing to potential timing effects or non-cash/one-off drivers in net income; this volatility lowers confidence in cash-flow consistency.54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 52.18M | 58.23M | 57.47M | 61.21M | 51.74M |
| Gross Profit | 33.58M | 46.92M | 44.05M | 47.05M | 42.88M |
| EBITDA | 45.95M | 85.88M | 61.67M | 35.29M | 24.52M |
| Net Income | 31.55M | 59.91M | 30.91M | 11.67M | 9.99M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 719.07M | 868.56M | 1.02B | 1.16B | 1.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.29M | 78.44M | 5.49M | 7.65M | 30.17M |
| Total Debt | 161.18M | 203.88M | 361.26M | 437.20M | 511.43M |
| Total Liabilities | 181.09M | 272.00M | 391.19M | 455.94M | 528.94M |
| Stockholders Equity | 459.35M | 481.91M | 515.88M | 580.79M | 458.31M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.43M | 16.14M | 12.89M | 12.80M | 7.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.43M | 16.14M | 12.89M | 17.05M | 7.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 63.40M | 268.75M | 158.46M | -60.40M | -18.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -149.97M | -211.94M | -173.51M | 20.83M | 13.87M |
Farmland Technical Analysis
Positive
12.62
Price Trends
10.75
Positive
10.26
Positive
10.45
Positive
Market Momentum
0.43
Negative
74.91
Negative
80.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.71, above the 50-day MA of 10.75, and above the 200-day MA of 10.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.91 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FPI.
Farmland Risk Analysis
Farmland disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Farmland reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Farmland Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
FPI
Farmland
12.62
1.59
14.43%
RYN
Rayonier
21.52
-2.07
-8.77%
WY
Weyerhaeuser
24.89
-3.98
-13.79%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.