Five Point Holdings Llc (FPH)
NYSE:FPH
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Five Point Holdings
(NYSE:FPH)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-18.83% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is anchored by improving leverage and solid recent cash generation, but tempered by volatile operating performance (notably the sharp 2025 revenue drop and negative operating profit). Valuation looks compelling on a low P/E, while technicals are neutral and management’s guidance points to a softer, back-loaded 2026 despite strong liquidity and long-term project/fee-business progress.
Positive Factors
Strong Liquidity & Improved Leverage
Substantial liquidity and active debt reduction materially improve Five Point’s financial flexibility for long-duration development cycles. Lower interest expense and a larger cash cushion reduce refinancing risk, enable continued entitlement and site work funding, and support strategic investments without forcing distressed land sales during downturns.
Negative Factors
Volatile Revenue & Operating Profit
A sharp revenue drop and negative operating profit highlight the core cyclicality and timing sensitivity of Five Point’s land-sale model. Reliance on episodic large transactions and venture-related non-operating items means headline earnings can swing, limiting predictability of core operating margins and stressing planning during softer housing demand periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Liquidity & Improved Leverage
Substantial liquidity and active debt reduction materially improve Five Point’s financial flexibility for long-duration development cycles. Lower interest expense and a larger cash cushion reduce refinancing risk, enable continued entitlement and site work funding, and support strategic investments without forcing distressed land sales during downturns.
Read all positive factors
Five Point Holdings (FPH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$520.99M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)187.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.5
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth-1.52%
EPS Growth81.35%
CountryUS
Employees88
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding71,330,110
10 Day Avg. Volume166,575
30 Day Avg. Volume187,209
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.80
Price to Book (P/B)0.46
Price to Sales (P/S)3.56
P/FCF Ratio3.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-205.76
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Five Point Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Five Point Holdings, LLC, through its subsidiary, Five Point Operating Company, LP, owns and develops mixed-use and planned communities in Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Francisco County. The company operates in four segments: Valencia...
How the Company Makes Money
Five Point primarily makes money by monetizing its master-planned community assets through land and development-related transactions. Its key revenue stream is the sale of entitled and improved land parcels (finished or partially improved lots) to...
Five Point Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Five Point Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive long-term strategic and financial position highlighted by record 2025 earnings, significant liquidity ($425M cash, $643M total liquidity), successful entitlement approvals, and the Hearthstone acquisition that broadened fee-based earnings and increased AUM to ~$3.4B. Near-term caution was emphasized: management guided materially lower 2026 net income (~$100M) with earnings back-loaded to the second half and a small Q1 loss expected, noted a sharp Q4 QoQ drop in Great Park home closings (seasonality/inventory) and delayed residential sales in Valencia. Overall, the tone combined strong operational and balance-sheet achievements with prudent, conservative near-term guidance given market headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Annual Net Income
Consolidated net income of $183.5M for FY2025, a new company record (up from $177.6M in 2024, ~+3.3%). Q4 net income was $58.7M. Annual results exceeded revised Q2 2025 guidance by roughly $6M.
Negative Updates
2026 Earnings Guidance Materially Lower
Company guided to consolidated net income of approximately $100M for 2026, down ~45.5% versus FY2025 ($183.5M). Management expects earnings to be back-loaded to H2 and anticipates a small loss in Q1 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Net Income
Consolidated net income of $183.5M for FY2025, a new company record (up from $177.6M in 2024, ~+3.3%). Q4 net income was $58.7M. Annual results exceeded revised Q2 2025 guidance by roughly $6M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Five Point guided consolidated net income of approximately $100 million for 2026, with earnings weighted to the second half of the year (they expect a small loss in Q1); planned land sales of ~50 acres at the Great Park and ~20 acres at Valencia in 2026 (from inventory of ~155 net residential acres at the Great Park and ~55 net residential / 11 net retail / 13 net industrial acres at Valencia, excluding the newly approved entitlements), and noted sales from Entrada South and Valencia Commerce Center are expected to begin early in 2028; Hearthstone AUM is expected to exceed $4.0 billion by year-end 2026 with $300–$500 million of new capital commitments anticipated in Q1 and commensurate revenue and net income growth; initial Candlestick site work is expected to begin in H1 2026.Five Point Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 110.02M | 237.93M | 211.73M | 42.69M | 224.39M |
| Gross Profit | 53.23M | 118.83M | 77.74M | 15.20M | 80.10M |
| EBITDA | -7.39M | 86.91M | 46.10M | -22.20M | 29.26M |
| Net Income | 70.97M | 68.30M | 55.39M | -15.40M | 6.57M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.25B | 3.08B | 2.97B | 2.89B | 2.94B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 426.54M | 430.88M | 354.79M | 131.77M | 265.46M |
| Total Debt | 514.32M | 598.77M | 692.54M | 699.35M | 708.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 860.41M | 896.32M | 962.18M | 992.74M | 1.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 843.25M | 749.44M | 678.05M | 618.13M | 634.42M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 105.01M | 115.18M | 154.12M | -188.38M | -81.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 105.23M | 115.99M | 154.12M | -188.30M | -81.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.55M | 70.06M | 77.11M | 63.99M | 75.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -104.01M | -108.98M | -9.20M | -9.72M | -26.58M |
Five Point Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
6.16
Price Trends
5.33
Negative
5.59
Negative
5.70
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Positive
26.98
Positive
13.85
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FPH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.17, above the 50-day MA of 5.33, and above the 200-day MA of 5.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.98 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FPH.
Five Point Holdings Risk Analysis
Five Point Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Five Point Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Five Point Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.26B | 20.39 | 9.82% | ― | 10.13% | -18.11% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $520.99M | 5.51 | 8.87% | ― | -1.52% | 81.35% | |
48 Neutral | $218.28M | 2.08 | -19.15% | ― | -75.38% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $246.80M | -91.47 | 2.58% | ― | -0.58% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
FPH
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4.77
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Five Point Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Five Point Forms Blue Owl-Backed Residential Land Partnership
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Five Point Holdings issued warrants to affiliates of Blue Owl Capital to purchase up to 1.5 million Class A shares at $7.00 per share, tied to capital commitments in a newly formed residential land banking partnership executed...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.