Five Point Holdings (FPH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $559.22M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 187.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: -1.52%
• EPS Growth: 81.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 88
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Development
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 71,330,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 166,575
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 187,209
• PEG Ratio: 1.80
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.56
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -218.54
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▼(-2.60% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is anchored by improving leverage and solid recent cash generation, but tempered by volatile operating performance (notably the sharp 2025 revenue drop and negative operating profit). Valuation looks compelling on a low P/E, while technicals are neutral and management’s guidance points to a softer, back-loaded 2026 despite strong liquidity and long-term project/fee-business progress.

Positive Factors

Liquidity & Balance Sheet Improvement

Material cash and total liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund long-duration master-planned projects, support entitlement and site work timing, and withstand cyclical slowdowns. Recent refinancing, revolver expansion and debt paydowns also lower interest burden and preserve capacity to execute multi-year development plans.

Growing Fee-Based Platform (Hearthstone)

Rapid AUM growth and targeted new capital commitments expand recurring, asset-light fee revenue that diversifies earnings away from lumpy lot monetizations. A larger fee platform improves earnings predictability, scales distribution/underwriting capabilities, and reduces reliance on timing-sensitive land sales over coming quarters and years.

Major Entitlement Approvals

New entitlements materially increase saleable residential and commercial optionality across flagship projects, creating a multi-year pipeline of monetizable acres. Entitlement progress is a structural value unlock for master-planned developers, improving long-term revenue runway and enabling selective pacing of land sales to capture better pricing.

Negative Factors

Volatile Operating Performance

A large revenue decline and negative operating margin highlight core earnings cyclicality and weaker repeatable operating results. Reported net income benefited from non-operating items, so operating volatility undermines predictability of cash flow and increases risk that earnings will swing with timing of land monetization and project execution.

Back-Loaded Near-Term Guidance

Management’s materially lower, back-loaded guidance reduces near-term earnings visibility and signals the business will rely on precise timing of mid-to-late year lot sales. That timing risk is structural for land-driven developers and can extend cash generation uncertainty across multiple quarters.

Market & Demand Headwinds

Persistent affordability challenges and higher rates structurally compress buyer demand and extend absorption timelines for homesites. For a land-sale centric model, weaker residential demand delays monetization, pressures margins on less premium parcels, and can force extended holding costs and slower fee conversion from contingent entitlements.

Five Point Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Five Point Holdings, LLC, through its subsidiary, Five Point Operating Company, LP, owns and develops mixed-use and planned communities in Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Francisco County. The company operates in four segments: Valencia, San Francisco, Great Park, and Commercial. It sells residential and commercial land sites to homebuilders, commercial developers, and commercial buyers; operates and owns a commercial office, medical campus, and other properties; and provides development and property management services. The company was formerly known as Newhall Holding Company, LLC and changed its name to Five Point Holdings, LLC in May 2016. Five Point Holdings, LLC was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Five Point Holdings generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by developing and selling residential and commercial properties within its planned communities. The company typically engages in joint ventures and partnerships to share capital expenditures and risks, which facilitates large-scale developments. Additionally, FPH earns revenue from leasing commercial spaces to businesses and collecting homeowners' association fees in residential communities. Significant partnerships with local municipalities and other developers also aid in navigating regulatory processes, further enhancing the company's revenue potential through streamlined project approvals and increased market access.

Five Point Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Balance sheet trends are improving (lower debt-to-equity and steady ~8–9% ROE), and cash flow has been positive in 2023–2025 with earnings largely supported by cash generation. Offsetting this, 2025 revenue fell sharply and operating profit turned negative, implying weaker core earnings quality and continued cyclicality.

Income Statement

Profitability has been volatile. Revenue fell sharply in 2025 (down 43%), and operating profit turned negative (operating margin -6.7%), signaling weaker core earnings power. That said, reported net income remained strong in 2024–2025 with very high net margin in 2025, but the disconnect versus negative operating profit suggests earnings were likely helped by non-operating items, making headline profitability less repeatable. Longer-term, results have swung from losses (2020–2022) to stronger profitability (2023–2024), indicating an improving but uneven trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved over time. Debt relative to equity declined from above 1.0x in 2020–2023 to ~0.61x in 2025, and equity increased versus prior years, which supports financial flexibility. Returns on equity are positive and fairly steady in the high-single-digits (about 8–9%) in 2023–2025. The main weakness is that absolute debt remains sizable, and the business has historically experienced earnings volatility, which can pressure the balance sheet during weaker cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation looks solid recently. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were positive in 2023–2025 (about $105–$154M annually), and free cash flow has closely tracked net income in each year shown, indicating earnings are largely supported by cash flow. However, free cash flow declined meaningfully in 2025 (down ~50%), and cash flow was materially negative in 2020–2022, highlighting cyclicality and higher variability than a consistently cash-generative profile.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	110.02M	237.93M	211.73M	42.69M	224.39M
Gross Profit	53.23M	118.83M	77.74M	15.20M	80.10M
EBITDA	-7.39M	86.91M	46.10M	-22.20M	29.26M
Net Income	70.97M	68.30M	55.39M	-15.40M	6.57M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.25B	3.08B	2.97B	2.89B	2.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	426.54M	430.88M	354.79M	131.77M	265.46M
Total Debt	514.32M	598.77M	692.54M	699.35M	708.69M
Total Liabilities	860.41M	896.32M	962.18M	992.74M	1.02B
Stockholders Equity	843.25M	749.44M	678.05M	618.13M	634.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	105.01M	115.18M	154.12M	-188.38M	-81.57M
Operating Cash Flow	105.23M	115.99M	154.12M	-188.30M	-81.42M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.55M	70.06M	77.11M	63.99M	75.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-104.01M	-108.98M	-9.20M	-9.72M	-26.58M

Five Point Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FPH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.42, above the 50-day MA of 5.48, and above the 200-day MA of 5.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FPH.

Five Point Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FOR	66 Neutral	$1.29B	20.39	9.82%	―	10.13%	-18.11%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
FPH	62 Neutral	$559.22M	4.25	8.87%	―	-1.52%	81.35%
AMBR	48 Neutral	$249.20M	2.08	-19.15%	―	-75.38%	―
ARL	47 Neutral	$245.03M	-91.47	-0.47%	―	-0.58%	―

Five Point Holdings Corporate Events

Five Point Forms Blue Owl-Backed Residential Land Partnership

On February 6, 2026, Five Point Holdings issued warrants to affiliates of Blue Owl Capital to purchase up to 1.5 million Class A shares at $7.00 per share, tied to capital commitments in a newly formed residential land banking partnership executed through its Hearthstone Residential Holdings platform. The warrants, which could dilute existing shareholders by about 1% if fully vested and exercised, vest over five years as Blue Owl-managed funds meet cumulative capital contribution thresholds ranging from $500 million to $1.7 billion, giving Five Point additional funding flexibility without immediate dilution.

Announced on February 10, 2026, the partnership is aimed at acquiring residential homesites and land assets in high-quality U.S. housing markets, leveraging Hearthstone’s underwriting expertise, sourcing network and longstanding relationships with national homebuilders. The collaboration marks the first major scaling step for the Hearthstone platform since Five Point acquired it in 2025 as part of its strategy to grow asset-light, fee-generating businesses, and aligns Blue Owl’s long-term economics with the platform’s expansion through performance-linked warrant vesting, signaling a deepened institutional capital backing for Five Point’s land banking ambitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (FPH) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Five Point Holdings stock, see the FPH Stock Forecast page.