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Five Point Holdings Llc (FPH)
NYSE:FPH
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Five Point Holdings
(NYSE:FPH)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-2.60% Downside)
The score is supported by improved financial performance (notably strong TTM cash flow) and an inexpensive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weak technical trends and more cautious near-term outlook from the earnings call, including materially lower 2026 net income guidance and market headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained TTM operating and free cash flow strength that closely tracks earnings gives Five Point durable internal funding for land development, debt service, and JV commitments. Reliable cash generation reduces dependence on equity raises and improves resilience through project timing cycles.
Refinancing reduced cash costs
A substantial refinancing that lowers annual interest costs materially improves recurring cash flow and interest coverage. Combined with a Moody’s upgrade, this structurally lowers financing risk and expands capacity to fund development or opportunistic investments over the next several years.
Strategic acquisition expands platform
Acquiring majority of Hearthstone builds a national capital-solutions platform for homebuilders, diversifying revenue streams beyond California master-planned projects. This structural expansion can increase JV opportunities, recurring fee income, and mitigate regional concentration risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin volatility
Material year-over-year revenue decline and recent gross margin step-down signal development-timing sensitivity. For a project-driven developer, such volatility can persist across cycles, making earnings and cash flow less predictable and constraining longer-term planning and capital allocation.
Still debt-heavy capital structure
Although debt has declined from peak levels, overall leverage remains elevated for a cyclical real estate developer and reporting inconsistencies limit transparency. Persistent leverage increases refinancing and covenant risk and reduces flexibility during downturns or extended project delays.
Project timing & demand headwinds
A multiyear pause in Valencia lot sales and ongoing affordability and interest-rate pressures structurally delay revenue realization and extend inventory carrying periods. Prolonged timing shifts can magnify working capital needs and compress returns on development investments.
Five Point Holdings (FPH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$590.05M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)187.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth-1.52%
EPS Growth81.35%
CountryUS
Employees88
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding70,971,450
10 Day Avg. Volume166,575
30 Day Avg. Volume187,209
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.80
Price to Book (P/B)0.46
Price to Sales (P/S)3.56
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.68
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-193.03
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Five Point Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFive Point Holdings, LLC, through its subsidiary, Five Point Operating Company, LP, owns and develops mixed-use and planned communities in Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Francisco County. The company operates in four segments: Valencia, San Francisco, Great Park, and Commercial. It sells residential and commercial land sites to homebuilders, commercial developers, and commercial buyers; operates and owns a commercial office, medical campus, and other properties; and provides development and property management services. The company was formerly known as Newhall Holding Company, LLC and changed its name to Five Point Holdings, LLC in May 2016. Five Point Holdings, LLC was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyFive Point Holdings generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by developing and selling residential and commercial properties within its planned communities. The company typically engages in joint ventures and partnerships to share capital expenditures and risks, which facilitates large-scale developments. Additionally, FPH earns revenue from leasing commercial spaces to businesses and collecting homeowners' association fees in residential communities. Significant partnerships with local municipalities and other developers also aid in navigating regulatory processes, further enhancing the company's revenue potential through streamlined project approvals and increased market access.
Five Point Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Five Point Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive long-term strategic and financial position highlighted by record 2025 earnings, significant liquidity ($425M cash, $643M total liquidity), successful entitlement approvals, and the Hearthstone acquisition that broadened fee-based earnings and increased AUM to ~$3.4B. Near-term caution was emphasized: management guided materially lower 2026 net income (~$100M) with earnings back-loaded to the second half and a small Q1 loss expected, noted a sharp Q4 QoQ drop in Great Park home closings (seasonality/inventory) and delayed residential sales in Valencia. Overall, the tone combined strong operational and balance-sheet achievements with prudent, conservative near-term guidance given market headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Annual Net Income
Consolidated net income of $183.5M for FY2025, a new company record (up from $177.6M in 2024, ~+3.3%). Q4 net income was $58.7M. Annual results exceeded revised Q2 2025 guidance by roughly $6M.
Strong Q4 Land Sales and Great Park Performance
Closed 3 new home programs at Great Park in Q4 (187 homesites on 19.7 acres) with aggregate base purchase price of $181.5M. During 2025 builders closed 13 programs (920 homesites) at Great Park. Q4 distributions and incentive compensation from the Great Park Venture totaled $73.6M.
Exceptional Margins from Great Park Transactions
Great Park land sales in the quarter produced a reported gross margin of 75.5% on $181.5M of land sales revenue; Five Point recognized $201.3M of equity in earnings from the Great Park Venture in 2025 (part of $203.6M total equity earnings).
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Strengthened
Ended the year with approximately $425M cash and total liquidity of $643M. Refinanced senior notes (issued $450M of 8% notes due 2030), repaid $75M, and expanded revolver to $217.5M (maturity July 2029). Actions expected to reduce annual interest expense by ~ $20M; paid down $175M of debt since Jan 2024.
Hearthstone Acquisition Expands Fee-Based Platform
Hearthstone AUM grew from ~$2.6B at close to ~$3.4B and generated $11.8M of management fee revenue and ~$3.9M of net income (5 months). Q4 Hearthstone revenue was $8.4M and net income ~$3.0M. Company expects >$4B AUM before end of 2026 and $300M–$500M of new capital commitments in Q1.
Major Entitlement Approvals Unlock Long-Term Value
Received unanimous approvals for Entrada South (approx. 120 net acres residential, ~1,300 market-rate homesites + ~40 acres commercial) and Valencia Commerce Center (~110 net acres industrial). Great Park received City Council approval to convert ~100 acres of commercial to residential, increasing saleable residential optionality.
Planned Land Sale Pipeline and Development Timing
At start of 2026, Five Point expects to sell ~50 acres at Great Park and ~20 acres at Valencia; has 155 net acres remaining at Great Park (55 residential + 100 newly redesignated) and additional entitlements expected to drive future sales beginning ~early 2028.
Progress on San Francisco (Candlestick) and Development Execution
Finalizing engineering and permitting for next phase; expect to begin initial site work in H1 2026, signaling continued execution on long-duration master planned projects.
Negative Updates
2026 Earnings Guidance Materially Lower
Company guided to consolidated net income of approximately $100M for 2026, down ~45.5% versus FY2025 ($183.5M). Management expects earnings to be back-loaded to H2 and anticipates a small loss in Q1 2026.
Quarterly Decline in Great Park Home Sales (Seasonal/Inventory Impact)
Great Park builder home sales in Q4 were 78 versus 187 in Q3, a decline of ~58% quarter-over-quarter; company attributes this to seasonality and reduced available home supply as collections sold out.
Valencia Residential Sales Delayed and Market Sensitivity
Management elected to delay residential land sales in Valencia in 2025 (no residential land sales closed in 2025), citing weaker demand there versus Great Park and broader affordability headwinds; reliance on industrial sale (13.8 acres for $42.5M) in Q4.
Lower Gross Margin on Valencia Industrial Sale
Q4 Valencia industrial land sale generated a reported gross margin of 31.25% (vs 75.5% on Great Park land sales), highlighting variability in per-asset profitability.
Higher SG&A and One-Time Acquisition Costs
SG&A increased to $60.6M in 2025 from $51.2M in 2024 (approximately +18.4%), driven by Hearthstone acquisition costs, increased share-based awards and performance-based awards.
Debt-to-Capitalization and Leverage Commentary
Transcript figures show debt to total capitalization at 16.3% in 2025 vs 9.6% at end of 2024 (change noted by management), indicating a move in capital structure that investors may scrutinize despite other liquidity improvements.
Challenging Housing Market Headwinds
Management noted macro headwinds—elevated interest rates, affordability constraints and economic uncertainty—that tempered national homebuyer demand and are expected to influence timing and volume of land monetizations.
Company Guidance
Five Point guided consolidated net income of approximately $100 million for 2026, with earnings weighted to the second half of the year (they expect a small loss in Q1); planned land sales of ~50 acres at the Great Park and ~20 acres at Valencia in 2026 (from inventory of ~155 net residential acres at the Great Park and ~55 net residential / 11 net retail / 13 net industrial acres at Valencia, excluding the newly approved entitlements), and noted sales from Entrada South and Valencia Commerce Center are expected to begin early in 2028; Hearthstone AUM is expected to exceed $4.0 billion by year-end 2026 with $300–$500 million of new capital commitments anticipated in Q1 and commensurate revenue and net income growth; initial Candlestick site work is expected to begin in H1 2026.Five Point Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Recent profitability and especially TTM cash generation are strong, with free cash flow tracking earnings well. Offsetting this, results show meaningful revenue and margin volatility and the business remains meaningfully leveraged for a cyclical developer, reducing confidence in earnings durability.Income Statement
Profitability has improved meaningfully versus earlier loss years (2020–2022), with solid profits in 2023–2024 and very strong TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin. However, the latest period shows sharp revenue contraction (TTM revenue down materially versus 2024) and a step-down in gross margin, suggesting earnings quality and sustainability may be more volatile than the headline net income implies.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has trended better, with total debt reduced from 2020–2023 levels and debt-to-equity improving from ~1.0+ to ~0.8 in 2024, alongside rising equity. That said, the capital structure is still debt-heavy for a cyclical real estate developer, and the TTM debt-to-equity metric appears unreliable (reported as 0.0 despite substantial debt), limiting confidence in the most recent leverage snapshot.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are very strong and have accelerated versus 2024, and free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings. The main watch-out is historical volatility (negative operating and free cash flow in 2020–2022), which is common in development businesses and can reappear with project timing and working-capital swings.80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 110.02M | 237.93M | 211.73M | 42.69M | 224.39M |
| Gross Profit | 53.23M | 118.83M | 77.74M | 15.20M | 80.10M |
| EBITDA | -7.39M | 86.91M | 46.10M | -22.20M | 29.26M |
| Net Income | 70.97M | 68.30M | 55.39M | -15.40M | 6.57M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.25B | 3.08B | 2.97B | 2.89B | 2.94B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 426.54M | 430.88M | 354.79M | 131.77M | 265.46M |
| Total Debt | 443.35M | 598.77M | 692.54M | 699.35M | 708.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 860.41M | 896.32M | 962.18M | 992.74M | 1.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 843.25M | 749.44M | 678.05M | 618.13M | 634.42M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 115.18M | 154.12M | -188.38M | -81.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 115.99M | 154.12M | -188.30M | -81.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 70.06M | 77.11M | 63.99M | 75.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -108.98M | -9.20M | -9.72M | -26.58M |
Five Point Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.16
Price Trends
5.53
Negative
5.79
Negative
5.73
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
49.19
Neutral
84.76
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FPH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.39, above the 50-day MA of 5.53, and above the 200-day MA of 5.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FPH.
Five Point Holdings Risk Analysis
Five Point Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Five Point Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Five Point Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $590.05M | 6.75 | 12.52% | ― | -1.52% | 81.35% | |
66 Neutral | $1.53B | 9.19 | 9.82% | ― | 10.13% | -18.11% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
53 Neutral | $277.01M | 48.09 | 0.95% | ― | -0.58% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $204.23M | -0.72 | ― | ― | -75.38% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.