Five Point Holdings (FPH) AI Stock Analysis

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Five Point Holdings

(NYSE:FPH)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:―

Five Point Holdings demonstrates strong financial health with impressive profitability and a debt-free balance sheet. The positive technical indicators and undervaluation further support the stock's potential. However, cash flow volatility and market uncertainties present some risks.

Five Point Holdings (FPH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$585.10M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)167.55K

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.4

Beta (1Y)0.95

Revenue Growth11.66%

EPS Growth78.44%

CountryUS

Employees88

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength63

IndustryReal Estate - Development

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.32

Shares Outstanding69,858,635

10 Day Avg. Volume106,281

30 Day Avg. Volume167,553

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.24

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio1.86

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering0

Five Point Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFive Point Holdings, LLC is a leading developer and operator of mixed-use, master-planned communities in coastal California. The company designs and develops residential, commercial, retail, and recreational spaces, focusing on sustainability and creating vibrant communities. Its portfolio includes some of the largest mixed-use communities in the state, such as Valencia in Los Angeles County, Great Park Neighborhoods in Irvine, and San Francisco Shipyard and Candlestick Point in San Francisco.

How the Company Makes MoneyFive Point Holdings primarily makes money through the sale of residential and commercial real estate properties. The company's revenue streams include land sales to homebuilders, commercial property leasing, and management fees from operating commercial and retail spaces within its master-planned communities. Additionally, Five Point Holdings benefits from strategic partnerships with local governments and private entities to enhance infrastructure and amenities, which increase the value of its developments. The company also earns from property management services provided to residents and businesses in its communities.

Five Point Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 4.62%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted robust financial results, increased liquidity, and successful land sales, contrasted by challenges from market uncertainties and tariff policies affecting economic conditions.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Stronger-than-Expected Net Income

Five Point Holdings reported a net income of $60.6 million for Q1, exceeding guidance by $10 million.

Successful Residential Land Sales

The Great Park Venture secured sales of 325 homesites on 23.6 acres for $278.9 million.

Increased Liquidity

Five Point ended the quarter with total liquidity of $653.3 million, including $528.3 million in cash.

Credit Rating Upgrade

Five Point received a credit rating upgrade from S&P from B- to B, with senior notes upgraded from B to B+.

Steady Home Sales in Great Park

Builders sold 233 homes in Q1 at Great Park, up from 143 homes in Q4 2024.

Negative Updates

Market Uncertainty Impact

Economic challenges due to shifting tariff policies and higher mortgage rates were noted, affecting consumer sentiment and sales pace.

Negative Carry on Debt

Five Point faced a negative carry due to holding cash against a higher coupon debt, resulting in a cost of $30 million.

Tariff Policy Concerns

Tariff policies have put upward pressure on interest rates and inflation, impacting the housing market.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Five Point Holdings, LLC reported a net income of $60.6 million, exceeding their guidance by approximately $10 million. The company's financial success was driven by several key factors, including revenue generation from land sales, controlling expenses, and effective capital management. Specifically, the Great Park Venture contributed significantly with land sales revenue of $278.9 million, resulting in a gross margin of 75%. The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $653.3 million, comprising $528.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and $125 million in borrowing availability. Five Point's credit rating was upgraded by S&P from B- to B, with senior notes upgraded to B+ due to consistent earnings and cash generation. Looking ahead, Five Point anticipates net income close to $200 million for 2025, contingent on the timing of development processes in Los Angeles County.

Five Point Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Five Point Holdings shows strong financial performance with a high gross profit margin and solid net profit margin. The balance sheet is robust, with no debt and strong equity, reducing financial risk. However, cash flow volatility and the absence of EBITDA limit the assessment of operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Positive

Five Point Holdings has shown significant improvement in revenue and profitability in the latest year compared to previous years. The most recent annual report indicates a gross profit margin of 100% due to the entirety of revenue being converted to gross profit, and a strong net profit margin of approximately 97.7%. The company has experienced solid revenue growth, particularly notable from 2022 to 2023, suggesting a positive trajectory in their financial performance. However, the absence of EBITDA in the latest year limits the analysis of operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Five Point Holdings reflects a strong equity position, with stockholders' equity making up a substantial portion of total assets. The company has a debt-free balance sheet as of the latest report, which significantly reduces financial risk and enhances stability. The equity ratio is robust, indicating a solid foundation for growth. Additionally, the return on equity has improved remarkably, reflecting efficient utilization of equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement indicates a healthy free cash flow and a positive operating cash flow in the latest report, which suggests strong cash generation capabilities. However, the free cash flow has decreased compared to the previous year, indicating potential volatility in cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, showing efficient conversion of profits into cash.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
241.15M	237.93M	211.73M	42.69M	224.39M	153.62M
	Gross Profit
132.72M	118.83M	77.74M	15.20M	80.10M	42.25M
	EBIT
79.64M	67.60M	26.25M	-36.90M	-23.00M	-55.39M
	EBITDA
102.39M	86.96M	46.10M	-22.20M	2.98M	-27.11M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
89.25M	68.30M	55.39M	-34.77M	13.31M	1.09M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
62.69M	430.88M	353.80M	131.77M	265.46M	298.14M
	Total Assets
3.16B	3.08B	2.97B	2.89B	2.94B	2.96B
	Total Debt
0.00	525.74M	692.54M	620.65M	619.12M	617.58M
	Net Debt
-1.74M	94.86M	337.75M	488.88M	353.65M	319.44M
	Total Liabilities
0.00	896.32M	962.18M	992.74M	1.02B	1.05B
	Stockholders Equity
0.00	749.44M	678.05M	618.13M	634.42M	617.67M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
198.74M	115.18M	154.12M	-188.38M	-81.57M	-80.65M
	Operating Cash Flow
199.14M	115.99M	154.12M	-188.30M	-81.42M	-78.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
106.32M	70.06M	77.11M	63.99M	75.31M	52.94M
	Financing Cash Flow
-9.81M	-108.98M	-9.20M	-9.72M	-26.58M	-23.54M

Five Point Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price5.44

Price Trends

50DMA

5.28

Positive

100DMA

5.32

Positive

200DMA

4.52

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.05

Positive

RSI

50.64

Neutral

STOCH

21.32

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FPH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.49, above the 50-day MA of 5.28, and above the 200-day MA of 4.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FPH.

Five Point Holdings Risk Analysis

Five Point Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Five Point Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Five Point Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXR	79 Outperform	$105.54M	8.33	10.82%	―	30.36%	481.87%
FPH	74 Outperform	$585.10M	4.37	12.27%	―	11.66%	78.44%
FOR	70 Outperform	$970.73M	6.00	10.81%	―	-5.60%	-17.86%
LSEA	70 Outperform	$409.61M	42.15	1.50%	―	24.15%	-60.70%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$2.81B	10.77	0.40%	8439.00%	5.73%	-20.81%
ARL	54 Neutral	$233.24M	―	-2.20%	―	-6.48%	-592.10%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FPH

Five Point Holdings

5.68

2.61

85.02%

ARL

American Realty Investors

14.87

0.77

5.46%

AXR

Amrep

20.06

-0.94

-4.48%

FOR

Forestar Group

19.58

-12.89

-39.70%

LSEA

Landsea Homes

11.27

1.30

13.04%

Five Point Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Five Point Holdings Concludes Annual Shareholder Meeting

Neutral

May 23, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Five Point Holdings, LLC held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where 91.4% of the issued and outstanding common shares were represented. During the meeting, shareholders elected three directors, approved executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accountants for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.