Fortum OYJ (FOJCY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.62B
• Dividend Yield: 10.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 176.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: -19.13%
• EPS Growth: -30.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,451
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 4,486,322,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 72
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 176
• PEG Ratio: -0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 49.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.92
• 1Y Price Target: $4.20
• Price Target Upside: 0.00%
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(30.95% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is primarily held back by financial performance—especially volatile earnings quality and inconsistent cash flow conversion with a sharp free-cash-flow step-down—despite an improving leverage profile. Technicals are broadly neutral-to-slightly constructive, and valuation is helped by a very high dividend yield, though the P/E remains on the higher side.

Positive Factors

Improving leverage and balance sheet

Fortum's material reduction in debt-to-equity from 2021–2022 to 2024–2025 and a stable equity base improve financial flexibility for a capital-intensive utility. This durable improvement supports investment, dividend capacity and resilience to cyclical power markets over the next 2–6 months.

Low‑carbon/renewable generation focus

A strategic focus on low‑carbon and renewable generation aligns Fortum with structural decarbonization trends and regulatory support in the Nordics and Europe. Ownership of cleaner generation assets reduces long‑term regulatory risk and can enable more stable contract volumes and policy-backed demand.

Diversified energy revenue streams

Multiple revenue channels—wholesale power, energy services, heat/CHP, trading and asset transactions—provide structural resilience. This diversification helps offset swings in wholesale prices and hydrology, giving management levers to optimize earnings and cash flow across market cycles.

Negative Factors

Weak, volatile cash generation

Sharp free cash flow deterioration in 2025 and uneven conversion of net income into cash are structural concerns. Utilities need predictable cash to fund capex, maintenance and dividends; persistent volatility increases reliance on external financing or asset sales, limiting strategic optionality.

Earnings volatility and past large loss

Material below‑the‑line swings—evidenced by a sizable net loss in 2023 despite positive operating profit—signal earnings quality issues. Such volatility reduces predictability for planning, raises the chance of future surprises and complicates long‑term stakeholder confidence.

Multi‑year revenue and EPS weakness

Multi‑year revenue declines through 2022–2024 and steep EPS contraction show underlying top‑line and profitability pressures. Although 2025 showed a rebound, the recent negative trends indicate structural demand, price or mix challenges that could pressure margins absent sustained recovery.

Fortum OYJ Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fortum OYJ is a leading clean energy company based in Finland, primarily engaged in the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat. The company operates in various segments, including Power Generation, Customer Solutions, and Heat, and is heavily invested in renewable energy sources such as hydro, wind, and solar power. Fortum is dedicated to providing sustainable energy solutions and is actively involved in the transition to a low-carbon economy, offering services that encompass energy storage, electric vehicle charging, and smart energy solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Fortum makes money primarily by producing and selling electricity and by monetizing energy-related services and assets. Key revenue streams include: (1) Wholesale electricity sales: Fortum generates electricity from its power plants and sells it into wholesale power markets; revenue is largely a function of generated volumes and prevailing market power prices, with earnings influenced by hydrology (for hydro assets), fuel and CO2 costs (where relevant), plant availability, and Nordic/European supply-demand conditions. (2) Customer energy solutions and services (where applicable): Fortum can earn revenue from supplying electricity and/or providing energy-related services to end customers and enterprises, typically through contracts that may include fixed-price or variable-price components and service fees; specific product mix details are not available here and are therefore null. (3) Heat/combined heat and power and related solutions (where applicable): In markets where Fortum operates heat networks or CHP, it can generate revenue from heat sales and associated energy services; specific current segment contribution details are not available here and are therefore null. (4) Asset optimization and trading/hedging activities: Fortum may use power trading and hedging to manage price risk and optimize generation and sales, which can contribute to earnings through realized margins; specific trading income figures are not available here and are therefore null. (5) Partnerships, investments, and divestments: Fortum’s earnings can also be affected by joint ventures, associate companies, and transactions such as acquisitions/divestments, depending on its portfolio at a given time; specific counterparties or material partnerships are not available here and are therefore null. Across these streams, profitability is significantly influenced by power price levels and volatility, regulatory frameworks, and the company’s generation mix and cost structure.

Fortum OYJ Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is relatively supportive (improving debt-to-equity and stable equity base), but overall financial quality is constrained by volatile profitability (including a sizable 2023 loss) and weak/uneven cash generation. Free cash flow has deteriorated recently and cash conversion in 2025 is only modest versus net income.

Income Statement

Profitability is generally solid for the sector in the most recent years, with 2025 showing healthy gross and operating profitability and a positive net margin. However, results have been volatile: revenue declined in 2022–2024 before rebounding in 2025, and 2023 saw a sizable net loss despite positive operating profit—highlighting below-the-line swings that reduce earnings quality and predictability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for a utility profile, with debt-to-equity improving materially from elevated levels in 2021–2022 to a more moderate range in 2024–2025, alongside a stable equity base. Return on equity is positive again in 2024–2025 but has been inconsistent (notably negative in 2021 and 2023), indicating that profitability has not been steady through the cycle.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weak spot. While operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in 2023–2025, they have deteriorated recently (free cash flow down sharply in 2025), and cash conversion is uneven—operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of net income in 2025. The 2022 period also shows very large negative operating and free cash flow, underscoring volatility and potential sensitivity to working capital or one-off cash movements.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.99B	5.80B	6.71B	8.80B	112.40B
Gross Profit	2.09B	2.40B	2.90B	3.33B	7.23B
EBITDA	1.44B	2.04B	2.21B	2.46B	4.82B
Net Income	765.00M	1.16B	-2.07B	1.01B	-114.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.44B	17.31B	18.74B	23.64B	149.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.90B	4.13B	4.18B	3.92B	7.59B
Total Debt	4.75B	4.83B	5.91B	7.84B	17.22B
Total Liabilities	7.82B	8.15B	10.24B	15.90B	136.00B
Stockholders Equity	8.54B	9.07B	8.44B	7.67B	12.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	340.00M	909.00M	1.24B	-9.30B	3.79B
Operating Cash Flow	840.00M	1.39B	1.82B	-8.77B	4.97B
Investing Cash Flow	-614.00M	604.00M	1.10B	-985.00M	-5.73B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.46B	-2.04B	-2.61B	6.07B	6.01B

Fortum OYJ Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOJCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.75, below the 50-day MA of 4.66, and above the 200-day MA of 4.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOJCY.

Fortum OYJ Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GEV	75 Outperform	$229.39B	36.40	52.36%	0.14%	9.43%	35.56%
CWEN.A	69 Neutral	$7.68B	23.42	5.91%	5.60%	2.54%	124.89%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
FOJCY	63 Neutral	$22.62B	21.81	8.86%	10.93%	-19.13%	-30.28%
CEG	62 Neutral	$102.08B	47.68	16.78%	0.43%	21.35%	-3.93%
CWEN	61 Neutral	$7.68B	23.42	5.91%	5.29%	2.54%	124.89%
BEPC	55 Neutral	$6.96B	-2.94	-1196.72%	3.84%	5.93%	-39.88%