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Fiserv (FISV)
NASDAQ:FISV

Fiserv (FISV) AI Stock Analysis

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FISV

Fiserv

(NASDAQ:FISV)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$67.00
▲(8.75% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/22/26
The score is driven by strong underlying financial performance (revenue growth, solid margins, and strong free cash flow) and a low P/E valuation, partially offset by clearly bearish technicals and earnings-call guidance that suggests near-term revenue/margin pressure and continued transformation costs.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Fiserv’s operating and free cash flow have been consistently strong and rose to roughly $6.1B in 2025. High FCF conversion funds capex, share repurchases and debt paydowns, underwriting transformation investments while preserving financial optionality and supporting durable capital allocation.
Steady revenue and margin expansion
Multi-year top-line growth with materially higher net margins shows scalable business economics. Diverse revenue streams—payments, account processing, subscriptions—produce recurring cash flows and profitability that underpin sustainable earnings power and resilience through industry cycles over the medium term.
Product/platform momentum (Clover, Commerce Hub, Finxact)
Strong growth across merchant platforms and modern core products reflects scalable, sticky offerings. Higher Clover value-added services, Commerce Hub scale and Finxact account gains create network effects and cross-sell levers that can drive durable revenue expansion and margin improvement over several quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
The upward debt trajectory reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, limits room for incremental M&A or buybacks, and heightens downside risk if organic growth softens or margins compress, constraining strategic options over the medium term.
Banking segment weakness and client attrition
Continued client attrition in core banking threatens recurring account-processing revenue and long-cycle contract renewals. Replacing or regaining lost clients is slow and costly, weakening a historically stable revenue pillar and risking prolonged pressure on segment profits and cross-sell opportunities.
Margin compression from investments and transformation costs
Management expects margin pressure in early 2026 driven by investments, lapping of nonrecurring items and transformation activity. Ongoing Project Elevate and vendor/headcount spend can delay margin recoveries and reduce near-term free-cash-flow durability if execution or benefit realization slips.

Fiserv (FISV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Fiserv Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFiserv, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides payment and financial services technology worldwide. The company operates through Acceptance, Fintech, and Payments segments. The Acceptance segment provides point-of-sale merchant acquiring and digital commerce services; mobile payment services; security and fraud protection products; Carat, an omnichannel commerce solution; Clover, a cloud-based point-of-sale and business management platform; and Clover Connect, an independent software vendors platform. This segment distributes through various channels, including direct sales teams, strategic partnerships with agent sales forces, independent software vendors, financial institutions, and other strategic partners. The Fintech segment offers customer deposit and loan accounts, as well as manages an institution's general ledger and central information files. This segment also provides digital banking, financial and risk management, professional services and consulting, item processing and source capture, and other products and services. The Payments segment offers card transactions, such as debit, credit, and prepaid card processing and services; security and fraud protection products; card production; print services; and various network services, as well as non-card digital payment software and services, including bill payment, account-to-account transfers, person-to-person payments, electronic billing, and security and fraud protection products. It serves business, banks, credit unions, other financial institutions, merchants, and corporate clients. Fiserv, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Brookfield, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyFiserv generates revenue primarily through transaction-based fees, subscription services, and software licensing. A significant portion of its income comes from payment processing services, which charge merchants a fee per transaction. Additionally, the company earns revenue from its account processing services for banks, which typically involves monthly service fees based on the number of accounts managed. Fiserv also offers software solutions on a subscription basis, providing ongoing support and updates for its clients. Strategic partnerships with major financial institutions and technology firms further enhance its market position, allowing Fiserv to expand its reach and diversify its service offerings, contributing positively to its overall earnings.

Fiserv Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of constructive operational progress and product/innovation milestones (notably strong Clover momentum, Commerce Hub and Finxact growth, cash flow and EPS outperformance, strategic client wins and acquisitions) alongside meaningful near-term challenges (Financial Solutions revenue and margin declines, banking client attrition, Project Elevate one-time costs, and expected margin pressure in H1 2026). Management reiterated a clear multi-quarter plan, provided 2026 guidance in line with prior expectations, and emphasized investments to stabilize and modernize core businesses while pursuing growth opportunities.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Total Company Revenue and Profitability
Q4 adjusted revenue of $4.9B (flat YoY) and Q4 adjusted operating income of $1.7B (adjusted operating margin 34.9%). Full-year adjusted revenue $19.8B, up 4% YoY, with full-year adjusted operating income $7.4B and adjusted operating margin of 37.4% (down 200 bps YoY).
EPS and Free Cash Flow Outperformance
Fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $1.99 and full-year adjusted EPS of $8.64 (above guidance of $8.50–$8.60). Free cash flow Q4 $1.6B and full-year $4.44B, ahead of guidance ($4.25B) with ~93% conversion.
Merchant Solutions Strength and Clover Momentum
Merchant Solutions grew ~6% organically for the year. Clover revenue was $3.3B for the year, up 23% YoY; Clover revenue grew 12% in Q4 and Clover Capital grew 30% in North America in 2025. Clover value-added services contributed 27% of Clover revenue in Q4, up 5 points YoY.
Transaction and Volume Performance
Small business volume grew 7% in Q4 (inclusive of CCV). Clover volume grew 6% reported in Q4 and 9% excluding gateway conversion; volumes reaccelerated to ~11% ex gateway conversion in December and January.
Product & Platform Innovation Progress
Commerce Hub launched across the Americas and Commerce Hub platform processed over $200B in 2025 (>200% YoY growth). Finxact surpassed 30 million accounts and positions, representing >80% growth in 2025. CashFlow Central live with 5 FI clients and >100,000 SMB users; 155 FI signed and ~400-prospect pipeline.
Strategic Client Wins and Distribution Gains
Notable wins and expansions: new/expanded Commerce Hub deals (medical device company, large specialty retailer, AT&T), Mechanics Bancorp (>$22B) adopted core and XD digital, Republic Bank chose DNA core, expansion with Robinhood, added 47 banks to Clover referral ecosystem, refreshed Truist relationship and expanded ISO/agent channels.
Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Actions
Repurchased 3M shares for approximately $200M and paid down >$1B of debt after acquisitions. Ended year with debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA of 3.0x (in-line with target) and reiterated long-term leverage target of 2.5–3.0x.
Strategic Acquisitions and New Capabilities
Closed StoneCastle acquisition adding stablecoin custody capabilities and next-gen cash management capabilities for merchants; advanced stablecoin pilots with Huntington and other banks; capability to recycle reserves to financial institutions is a unique capability.
Negative Updates
Financial Solutions Revenue and Margin Pressure
Financial Solutions organic and adjusted revenue declined 2% in Q4. Q4 adjusted operating income for Financial Solutions declined 20% to $997M and adjusted operating margin dropped to 42.2% from 51.7% a year ago, driven largely by incremental vendor spend and headcount investments.
Banking Segment Weakness and Client Attrition
Banking revenue decreased 4% on an organic basis in Q4 (3% adjusted) and core client attrition remained above desired levels (above 2024/2023 levels). Management expects continued headwinds in the first half of 2026 while investments are made to stabilize the business.
Margin Compression Expected in Early 2026
Company expects 2026 adjusted operating margin to be lower in H1 (31%–32% with Q1 just below 30%) with H2 improvement; full-year margin expected ~34%, implying near-term compression from current levels as investments and lapping of higher nonrecurring revenue occur.
Project Elevate and One-Time Costs
Project Elevate expenses were $73M in Q4 with additional one-time/transformation costs expected to continue into 2026, plus ongoing vendor and technology spend tied to operational improvements.
Clover/Gateway Conversion Headwinds and November Softness
Clover faced headwinds from fee eliminations (6-point growth headwind to Q4 Clover revenue) and gateway conversion effects (reported Clover volume 6% vs 9% ex conversion). November softness in U.S. restaurant and retail segments weighed on Q4 Clover volume growth, which fell short of expectations for the quarter.
Overall Organic Revenue Flattening in Q4
Total company organic revenue was roughly flat in Q4 (down approximately 40 bps) despite full-year organic revenue growth of 3.8%.
Argentina and Certain Non-Core Contributions Diminishing
Argentina’s contribution to growth is expected to be modest in 2026 (less positive to organic revenue and slightly negative to adjusted revenue), and merchant cash advance activity in Argentina materially declined, reducing growth tailwinds from that market.
Segmental Operating Income Declines
Merchant Solutions Q4 adjusted operating income was $816M, down 17% YoY (adjusted operating margin 32.1%); full-year Merchant Solutions adjusted operating income down 2% YoY, indicating profitability pressures in segments despite revenue growth.
Company Guidance
Fiserv guided 2026 organic revenue growth of 1%–3% (adjusted revenue also guided ~1%–3% after expected FX and M&A offsets), with Merchant Solutions growing mid‑single digits and Financial Solutions flat to slightly down; they expect adjusted revenue in 1H to decline to low single digits (Q2 the trough) and note Q1 is the last quarter of CCV impact (~1 point difference between organic and adjusted). Full‑year adjusted EPS is $8.00–$8.30 on ~530 million weighted average shares, with an adjusted operating margin of ~34% for the year (1H: 31%–32% with Q1 just below 30%; 2H: 35%–36% with Q4 the high point), an effective tax rate of ~19%–19.5%, year‑end leverage of ~3.0x (long‑term target 2.5–3x), capex roughly flat to 2025, and free‑cash‑flow conversion ~90% of adjusted net income (Q1 is the trough). They also flagged continued one‑time Project Elevate costs, expect Argentina to be modestly positive to organic but slightly negative to adjusted revenue, and gave Clover targets of 10%–15% GPV growth in 2026 ex gateway conversion (Clover revenue in the low double‑digits for 2026; medium‑term Clover revenue growth target 15%–20%).

Fiserv Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong multi-year revenue growth and healthy profitability, supported by robust operating cash flow and rising free cash flow. The main offset is a more leveraged balance sheet (higher debt and lower equity in 2025) and some reporting/volatility that reduces year-to-year comparability.
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Revenue shows a steady multi-year uptrend (from $14.9B in 2020 to $21.2B in 2025), with 2025 re-accelerating to ~15.6% growth. Profitability is solid: net margin has expanded materially versus 2020 (~6.5%) and remains healthy in 2024–2025 (~15–16%), alongside strong EBITDA dollars. A key drawback is some year-to-year margin volatility (net margin dipped in 2024 vs. 2023), and several margin fields in 2025 appear unavailable/incorrectly reported (set to 0), limiting full comparability for that year.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reflects meaningful leverage: debt increased to ~$29.0B in 2025 from ~$25.0B in 2024, while equity declined to ~$25.8B, implying a rising leverage profile versus recent years (2024 debt-to-equity was ~0.92). Total assets are large (~$80B), and profitability on shareholder capital improved versus earlier years (2024 return on equity ~11.6% vs. ~3–4% in 2020–2021). The main risk is the upward debt trajectory and lower equity in 2025, which reduces financial flexibility if growth slows or funding costs rise.
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow remains strong (generally $4.0B–$6.6B), and free cash flow has grown substantially over time, reaching ~$6.1B in 2025. Cash conversion is healthy: free cash flow has typically covered a large portion of earnings (about ~68–78% in 2020–2024), and in 2025 free cash flow matches net income (1.0x). A watch item is that 2025 free cash flow growth is unusually high (reported ~31.2), which may indicate a step-change or data scaling issue; additionally, the provided “operating cash flow coverage” metric is low and inconsistent across years, so the quality assessment relies more on the absolute cash flow trend and cash-to-earnings relationship.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue21.19B20.46B19.09B17.74B16.23B
Gross Profit12.58B12.44B11.43B9.74B8.10B
EBITDA8.96B8.84B8.02B6.83B5.56B
Net Income3.48B3.13B3.07B2.53B1.33B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets80.13B77.18B90.89B83.87B76.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments798.00M1.24B1.20B902.00M835.00M
Total Debt29.00B24.96B23.90B21.54B21.24B
Total Liabilities54.32B49.49B60.22B52.18B44.30B
Stockholders Equity25.79B27.07B29.86B30.83B30.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.34B5.06B3.77B3.14B2.87B
Operating Cash Flow6.10B6.63B5.16B4.62B4.03B
Investing Cash Flow-3.00B-2.40B-1.07B-2.11B-1.63B
Financing Cash Flow-3.40B-4.17B-4.36B-2.48B-761.00M

Fiserv Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price61.61
Price Trends
50DMA
65.00
Negative
100DMA
75.98
Negative
200DMA
113.86
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.34
Negative
RSI
47.82
Neutral
STOCH
26.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FISV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 61.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.15, below the 50-day MA of 65.00, and below the 200-day MA of 113.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FISV.

Fiserv Risk Analysis

Fiserv disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fiserv reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Fiserv Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$56.96B17.8332.85%2.58%4.62%1.06%
77
Outperform
$11.27B22.4224.28%1.25%7.75%20.42%
68
Neutral
$31.62B9.7213.17%5.16%24.92%
68
Neutral
$29.20B13.3915.16%1.46%7.44%-4.57%
67
Neutral
$20.76B19.6841.79%1.63%8.57%35.02%
66
Neutral
$23.08B14.7115.82%2.78%-1.97%48.61%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FISV
Fiserv
61.61
-169.97
-73.40%
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions
177.32
-56.40
-24.13%
CTSH
Cognizant
61.33
-21.19
-25.68%
INFY
Infosys
14.24
-5.76
-28.79%
JKHY
Jack Henry & Associates
156.54
-13.04
-7.69%
WIT
Wipro
2.20
-1.03
-31.80%

Fiserv Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Fiserv Grants CEO Supplemental Equity to Drive Transformation
Positive
Feb 20, 2026

On February 18, 2026, the independent directors of Fiserv awarded Chief Executive Officer Michael P. Lyons a supplemental equity package of performance share units and restricted stock units, underscoring the board’s view of his central role in executing the One Fiserv transformation plan and driving long-term growth. The roughly $30 million award, structured with multi-year performance and vesting conditions and tied to relative total shareholder return and the One Fiserv action plan, comes on top of his approximately $18.7 million annual equity grant, reinforcing leadership retention and closely aligning his incentives with long-term shareholder value and key financial metrics such as adjusted revenue growth, earnings per share and free cash flow conversion.

The most recent analyst rating on (FISV) stock is a Hold with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fiserv stock, see the FISV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 22, 2026