FibroGen (FGEN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $45.74M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 58.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.01
• Revenue Growth: -69.19%
• EPS Growth: 98.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 225
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.88
• Shares Outstanding: 4,043,899
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 40,790
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 58,689
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -1.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -2.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.03
• 1Y Price Target: $43.00
• Price Target Upside: 255.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▼(-4.96% Downside)

FibroGen's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by significant losses and cash flow issues. While technical indicators show positive momentum, and the earnings call highlighted strategic improvements, the company's valuation remains unattractive due to ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Clinical Development

The strong cash balance allows flexibility and boosts confidence in the progress of FG-3246's and roxadustat's clinical endeavors without interruption.

Financial Position

The completed sale of FibroGen China to AstraZeneca for $220 million improves the company's cash position and simplifies its balance sheet.

Regulatory Progress

The Type C meeting with the FDA clarified details for the upcoming Phase 3 study of roxadustat, which is expected to investigate its safety and efficacy in patients with anemia.

Negative Factors

Clinical Risks

Factors that could impede reaching the price target include failed or inconclusive clinical trials and the inability to secure adequate funding for product development.

Financial Performance

FibroGen reported 2Q25 financial results, posting EPS of ($1.88) compared to our estimate of $1.01 and consensus of $1.00.

Regulatory Challenges

Announced a settlement related to roxadustat, which will result in a $1.25 million civil penalty paid to FibroGen.

FibroGen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FibroGen, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative therapies for patients with serious unmet medical needs. The company operates primarily in the areas of anemia, fibrotic diseases, and other related conditions. FibroGen's core products include Roxadustat, a drug designed to treat anemia associated with chronic kidney disease, which has received regulatory approvals in multiple markets.

How the Company Makes Money

FibroGen generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, most notably Roxadustat, which is marketed in collaboration with various partners. The company has established significant partnerships with organizations such as Astellas Pharma and AstraZeneca, which provide additional revenue streams through licensing agreements, milestone payments, and profit-sharing arrangements. Furthermore, FibroGen may also receive royalties on sales generated from its partners, contributing to its overall earnings. The company continues to explore new therapeutic indications and potential products, which could further enhance its revenue potential in the future.

FibroGen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

FibroGen's financial position is weak across all verticals, with declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative equity. The company faces significant challenges in improving its cash flow and financial stability, necessitating urgent strategic adjustments to address these issues.

Income Statement

FibroGen has experienced significant revenue decline with a negative revenue growth rate in recent periods. The company's profitability metrics, including gross profit margin and net profit margin, are negative due to consistent net losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure with negative stockholders' equity, leading to an undefined debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is also negative, indicating liabilities exceed assets. These factors suggest high financial risk and potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights negative operating and free cash flows, indicating ongoing cash burn. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, as is the operating cash flow to net income ratio, pointing to challenges in generating cash from operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	-72.84M	29.62M	46.80M	140.73M	235.31M	176.32M
Gross Profit	-57.80M	14.06M	42.84M	120.45M	222.44M	167.45M
EBITDA	-129.06M	-142.43M	-305.20M	-282.82M	-274.80M	-164.28M
Net Income	-2.07M	-47.58M	-284.23M	-293.65M	-291.03M	-189.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	178.06M	214.53M	423.53M	610.09M	773.82M	826.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.37M	50.48M	235.59M	422.01M	405.19M	686.54M
Total Debt	93.13M	73.09M	170.46M	89.89M	117.35M	58.46M
Total Liabilities	359.08M	398.16M	585.73M	611.57M	544.71M	385.39M
Stockholders Equity	-223.00M	-225.60M	-204.17M	-21.45M	209.15M	422.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-23.69M	-138.26M	-317.54M	-184.67M	-112.42M	77.61M
Operating Cash Flow	-23.44M	-138.00M	-315.02M	-145.93M	-82.23M	81.60M
Investing Cash Flow	2.45M	125.99M	153.66M	89.12M	-426.97M	452.49M
Financing Cash Flow	-219.00K	-255.00K	122.75M	46.78M	-563.00K	13.34M

FibroGen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FGEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.60, above the 50-day MA of 8.31, and above the 200-day MA of 9.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FGEN.

FibroGen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FGEN	53 Neutral	$45.74M	―	60.38%	―	-69.19%	98.78%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.92B	-0.43	-41.67%	2.21%	22.29%	-1.85%
RNXT	49 Neutral	$43.61M	―	-107.11%	―	―	38.12%
LVTX	47 Neutral	$40.77M	―	-90.07%	―	-32.55%	-15.83%
GRCE	46 Neutral	$42.32M	―	-16.78%	―	―	32.31%
INKT	38 Underperform	$62.19M	―	78.50%	―	―	41.90%
OSRH	―	$12.80M	―	-26.94%	―	―	―

FibroGen Corporate Events

FibroGen Sells Subsidiary to AstraZeneca for $220 Million

On August 29, 2025, FibroGen completed the sale of its subsidiary, FibroGen International (Hong Kong) Ltd., to AstraZeneca Treasury Limited for approximately $220 million. This transaction allowed FibroGen to repay its senior secured term loan facilities with Morgan Stanley Tactical Value for around $81 million and enter into related agreements, including a transition services agreement. The sale marks a significant financial maneuver for FibroGen, impacting its financial statements and positioning within the industry.

FibroGen Sells Subsidiary to AstraZeneca for $220M

On August 29, 2025, FibroGen completed the sale of its subsidiary, FibroGen China, to AstraZeneca for approximately $220 million. This transaction, which includes $85 million in enterprise value and $135 million in net cash, strengthens FibroGen’s financial position and extends its cash runway into 2028. The sale allows FibroGen to repay its term loan to Morgan Stanley Tactical Value and focus on advancing its clinical programs, including the Phase 2 trial of FG-3246 and the Phase 3 protocol for roxadustat in anemia associated with lower-risk MDS. The sale also reinforces FibroGen’s partnership with AstraZeneca, its long-time commercialization partner for roxadustat in China and South Korea.

FibroGen Gains Approval for Subsidiary Sale to AstraZeneca

On August 18, 2025, FibroGen announced that it received regulatory approval from the China State Administration for Market Regulation for the sale of its subsidiary, FibroGen China, to AstraZeneca. This transaction, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, involves the transfer of all equity interests and roxadustat assets in China to AstraZeneca, FibroGen’s long-time commercialization partner in the region. FibroGen retains rights to roxadustat in other markets, including the United States and Canada. The sale is part of FibroGen’s strategic operations, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

FibroGen Amends Financing Agreement with Morgan Stanley

On August 12, 2025, FibroGen, a company involved in a financing agreement with investment funds managed by Morgan Stanley Tactical Value, entered into a fourth amendment to this agreement. This amendment reduces the minimum qualified cash balance required to be held in U.S. deposit or securities accounts from $18.75 million to $15 million, potentially impacting the company’s cash management strategies and financial flexibility.

FibroGen Amends Financing Agreement with Morgan Stanley

On July 14, 2025, FibroGen amended its financing agreement with Morgan Stanley Tactical Value, reducing the minimum cash balance requirement from $22.5 million to $18.75 million. This adjustment may impact FibroGen’s financial flexibility and operational strategies, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

FibroGen Enters New Agreement with HiFiBiO

On June 12, 2025, FibroGen entered into a Termination, Asset Transfer and License Agreement with HiFiBiO Inc., ending their previous Exclusive License and Option Agreement. Under the new agreement, FibroGen has licensed its anti-CCR8 and anti-Gal-9 intellectual property to HiFiBiO, with potential financial benefits from sublicensing and commercialization revenues.

FibroGen Announces Reverse Stock Split Effective June 16

On June 10, 2025, FibroGen, Inc. announced a 1-for-25 reverse stock split of its common stock, effective June 16, 2025. This move aims to increase the stock’s market price to meet Nasdaq’s listing requirements, reducing the number of outstanding shares significantly. The reverse split was approved by stockholders on June 4, 2025, and will affect all outstanding shares and equity incentive plans. Trading on a split-adjusted basis will begin on June 17, 2025.

FibroGen Amends Financing Agreement for Flexibility

On June 5, 2025, FibroGen amended its financing agreement with Morgan Stanley Tactical Value, reducing its required minimum cash balance from $27 million to $22.5 million, potentially enhancing its financial flexibility. Additionally, on June 4, 2025, FibroGen appointed Dr. Michael Kauffman to its Board of Directors, bringing his extensive oncology expertise to the company, while Dr. Aoife Brennan resigned from the board, with no disagreements cited.