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FibroGen (FGEN)
NASDAQ:FGEN
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FibroGen
(NASDAQ:FGEN)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$0.50
▲(56.25%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Health
The anticipated extension of the company's cash runway strengthens its overall current and future financial health.
Regulatory Progress
Management conveyed that interactions with the FDA have progressed in a timely manner with no delays, despite investor uncertainties.
Strategic Transactions
The sale of FibroGen China to AstraZeneca is considered a strategic transaction, providing FibroGen with additional capital and streamlining its portfolio.
Negative Factors
Legal and Financial Penalties
Announced a settlement related to roxadustat, which will result in a $1.25 million civil penalty paid to FibroGen.
Operational Challenges
The focus remains on Pamrevlumab, especially after the latest Roxa setback, indicating continued strategic pipeline development.
Uncertain Timelines
Feedback from meeting with the FDA to discuss next steps for roxadustat in anemia associated with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome now expected in the third quarter.
FibroGen (FGEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.66M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)642.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth-38.60%
EPS Growth95.86%
CountryUS
Employees225
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength41
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding101,043,970
10 Day Avg. Volume563,493
30 Day Avg. Volume642,558
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.00Price Target Upside3025.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
FibroGen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFibroGen, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes therapeutics to treat serious unmet medical needs. The company is developing Roxadustat, an oral small molecule inhibitor of hypoxia inducible factor prolyl hydroxylases, which has completed Phase III clinical development for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease in the United States, Europe, China, and Japan; and in Phase II/III development in China for anemia associated with myelodysplastic syndromes. It is also developing Pamrevlumab, a human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the activity of connective tissue growth factor that is in Phase III clinical development for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, pancreatic cancer, liver fibrosis, and diabetic kidney disease, as well as Phase III trial for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The company has collaboration agreements with Astellas Pharma Inc. and AstraZeneca AB. FibroGen, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyFibroGen generates revenue through a combination of product sales, licensing agreements, and collaborative partnerships. The company's primary revenue stream comes from the commercialization of roxadustat, especially in markets like China, where it has partnered with AstraZeneca for distribution. Additionally, FibroGen earns milestone payments and royalties from its partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies involved in the development and commercialization of its products. The company also benefits from research and development collaborations, which provide funding and shared resources to advance its pipeline projects. These partnerships are crucial for FibroGen's earnings as they help offset the high costs associated with drug development and regulatory approvals.
FibroGen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 6.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a transformative period for FibroGen, with the sale of FibroGen China to AstraZeneca bringing in higher than expected proceeds and extending their financial runway significantly. There is notable progress in their clinical pipeline, particularly in the development of FG-3246 and FG-3180, with promising results from clinical trials. However, the company faced a significant decline in revenue and continued to operate at a net loss. While the highlights indicate strategic advancements and positive financial prospects, the revenue decline and continued net loss are concerning.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Sale Proceeds from FibroGen China
The sale of FibroGen China to AstraZeneca now expected to bring approximately $185 million, a $25 million increase from initial guidance due to greater than expected net cash in China at closing.
Extension of Cash Runway
The increased proceeds from the FibroGen China sale are expected to extend the company's cash runway into the second half of 2027.
Promising Clinical Developments
Phase 1 monotherapy study of FG-3246 in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) showed a median radiographic progression-free survival of 8.7 months, with an overall response rate of 20%.
Regulatory Milestones Achieved
FDA cleared the IND for FG-3180, a companion PET imaging agent, marking an important achievement for FibroGen.
Cost Reductions
Total operating costs and expenses for the first quarter of 2025 were $17.7 million, a decrease of 76% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Decline
Total revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $2.7 million compared to $25.4 million for the same period in 2024.
Net Loss Continues
The company recorded a net loss from continuing operations of $16.8 million for the first quarter of 2025.
Company Guidance
During the FibroGen First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided key financial and strategic guidance. The sale of FibroGen China to AstraZeneca is expected to close in Q3 2025, with total consideration now approximately $185 million, a $25 million increase from initial estimates. This transaction extends FibroGen's cash runway into the second half of 2027. The company remains focused on advancing its U.S. pipeline, particularly FG-3246 and FG-3180 for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). FG-3246 demonstrated a median radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) of 8.7 months in Phase 1, and FG-3180 received FDA clearance for its IND. FibroGen anticipates important FDA feedback on Roxadustat in anemia associated with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes by Q3. Full-year 2025 total revenue is projected between $4 million and $8 million, with operating expenses ranging from $70 million to $80 million, marking a 58% reduction from 2024.FibroGen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
FibroGen is facing severe financial challenges, with significant declines in revenue and persistent operational losses. The balance sheet shows negative equity, and cash flow remains negative, indicating a precarious financial position.Income Statement
FibroGen has experienced declining revenue over the past few years, with a significant drop in 2024 compared to previous years. This decline is coupled with persistent negative EBIT and net income, indicating operational challenges and profitability issues. The company also shows negative EBITDA, reflective of its struggles to manage costs effectively amidst falling revenues.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals high liabilities relative to assets, resulting in negative stockholders' equity, a concerning sign of financial instability. The absence of debt in 2024 is positive, but previous years show reliance on debt, contributing to financial stress. The negative equity ratio further highlights the precarious financial position, indicating significant leverage and risk.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has been consistently negative, pointing to challenges in generating cash from core operations. Although free cash flow improved slightly in 2024, it remains negative, indicating cash burn. The cash flow to net income ratios highlight inefficient cash management and an inability to convert revenue into cash profits.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| -23.54M | 29.62M | 147.75M | 140.73M | 235.31M | 176.32M | Gross Profit |
| -13.60M | 14.06M | 128.90M | 120.45M | 222.44M | 167.45M | EBIT |
| -134.27M | -150.42M | -281.81M | -301.02M | -288.53M | -191.88M | EBITDA |
| -127.66M | -142.43M | -261.40M | -282.82M | -274.80M | -164.28M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -10.01M | -47.58M | -284.23M | -295.23M | -291.03M | -189.29M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 177.60M | 50.48M | 235.59M | 422.01M | 405.19M | 686.54M | Total Assets |
| 365.87M | 214.53M | 423.53M | 610.09M | 773.82M | 826.84M | Total Debt |
| 168.61M | 73.09M | 170.46M | 89.89M | 99.73M | 37.72M | Net Debt |
| 62.88M | 22.61M | 56.77M | -65.81M | -71.49M | -640.67M | Total Liabilities |
| 552.02M | 398.16M | 585.73M | 611.57M | 544.71M | 385.39M | Stockholders Equity |
| -228.12M | -183.63M | -204.17M | -21.45M | 209.15M | 422.18M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -76.25M | -138.26M | -317.54M | -184.67M | -112.42M | 77.61M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -75.99M | -138.00M | -315.02M | -145.93M | -82.23M | 81.60M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 74.70M | 125.99M | 153.66M | 89.12M | -426.97M | 452.49M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -178.00K | -255.00K | 122.75M | 46.78M | -563.00K | 13.34M |
FibroGen Technical Analysis
Positive
0.32
Price Trends
0.31
Positive
0.39
Negative
0.39
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
53.34
Neutral
56.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FGEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.31, above the 50-day MA of 0.31, and below the 200-day MA of 0.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FGEN.
FibroGen Risk Analysis
FibroGen disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FibroGen reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
There is a risk that our common stock would be delisted due to not meeting the Nasdaq price requirement. Q4, 2024
2.
We are a smaller reporting company, and the reduced disclosure requirements applicable to us may make our common stock less attractive to investors. Q4, 2024
3.
If we are unable to consummate the sale of FibroGen International to AstraZeneca Treasury Limited, the trading price of our common stock and our business may be harmed. Q4, 2024
FibroGen Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
54 Neutral | $5.31B | 3.26 | -45.10% | 2.79% | 16.76% | 0.02% | |
49 Neutral | $50.84M | ― | -136.13% | ― | ― | 61.43% | |
46 Neutral | $40.74M | ― | -22.89% | ― | ― | 75.74% | |
45 Neutral | $31.66M | ― | 60.38% | ― | -38.60% | 95.86% | |
45 Neutral | $34.72M | ― | -73.11% | ― | -60.20% | 3.85% | |
38 Underperform | $28.92M | ― | 78.50% | ― | ― | 55.52% | |
| $26.22M | ― | -25.40% | ― | ― | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
FGEN
FibroGen
0.32
-0.81
-71.68%
GRCE
Grace Therapeutics
3.16
-0.09
-2.77%
LVTX
LAVA Therapeutics
1.36
-0.85
-38.46%
RNXT
RenovoRx
1.37
0.34
33.01%
INKT
MiNK Therapeutics
7.16
-2.36
-24.79%
OSRH
OSR Holdings
1.45
-9.29
-86.50%
FibroGen Corporate Events
M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
FibroGen Sells Subsidiary to AstraZeneca for $160M
Positive
Feb 20, 2025
On February 19, 2025, FibroGen entered into a share purchase agreement with AstraZeneca to sell its subsidiary, FibroGen International, for approximately $160 million. The sale includes all rights to Roxadustat in China, with the transaction expected to close by mid-2025, subject to regulatory approval. This move significantly strengthens FibroGen’s financial position, extending its cash runway into 2027 and allowing it to focus on advancing its oncology pipeline. The company plans to repay its term loan to Morgan Stanley Tactical Value upon closing, simplifying its capital structure.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.