Exlservice Holdings (EXLS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.90B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 14.43%
• EPS Growth: 29.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 59,500
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 158,700,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,589,871
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,015,954
• PEG Ratio: 3.67
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.93
• P/FCF Ratio: 32.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.61
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.26
• 1Y Price Target: $53.00
• Price Target Upside: 35.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $36.00 ▼(-8.05% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

Strong financial performance and a constructive earnings update (growth in data/AI and raised guidance) support the score, but the very weak technical setup—price far below moving averages with negative MACD—meaningfully drags the overall rating. Valuation is reasonable but not clearly cheap at a 21.9 P/E.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

EXL converts profits into cash reliably: operating cash flow exceeds net income and free cash flow is positive. This durable cash generation supports reinvestment in AI, client programs, and buybacks while providing buffer for cyclical downturns and funding multi-quarter strategic initiatives without heavy external funding.

Leadership in data and AI

More than half of revenue is now AI/data-led and growing double digits, reflecting a structural shift in service mix. Coupled with productization (EXLdata.ai), this strengthens competitive differentiation, shortens client implementation cycles and positions EXL to capture secular demand for embedded AI over the coming quarters.

High recurring revenue and renewals

A high share of recurring revenue and strong renewal rates create durable revenue visibility and lower client churn risk. This steadier base underpins multi-quarter planning, supports margin recovery after investments, and enables sustainable growth from upsells and long-term engagements across sectors.

Negative Factors

Rising SG&A intensity

EXL is investing heavily in front-end sales and marketing, which raised SG&A intensity materially. If these investments do not convert to sustained higher-margin revenue, the higher operating cost base may persist and compress margins over multiple quarters, limiting near-term profitability expansion.

Compression in operating margin

A half-percentage-point decline in adjusted operating margin signals pressure from recent investments and mix shifts. Sustained margin compression would reduce free cash flow conversion and limit flexibility for future R&D or M&A, making margin recovery a key structural risk to monitor over the next several quarters.

Modest trailing growth rates

Trailing twelve-month revenue and FCF growth are modest, indicating that despite pockets of AI-led acceleration, overall top-line expansion has been limited. Without sustained acceleration, the company may need continued margin or cash conversion improvements to materially increase shareholder value over the medium term.

Exlservice Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ExlService Holdings, Inc. operates as a data analytics, and digital operations and solutions company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance, Healthcare, Analytics, and Emerging Business segments. The company provides digital operations and solutions and analytics-driven services across the insurance industry in areas, such as claims processing, premium and benefit administration, agency management, account reconciliation, policy research, underwriting support, new business acquisition, policy servicing, premium audit, surveys, billing and collection, commercial and residential survey, and customer service using digital technology, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced automation; digital customer acquisition services using a software-as-a-service delivery model through LifePRO and LISS platforms; subrogation services; and Subrosource software platform, an end-to-end subrogation platform. It also offers CareRadius, an integrated care management offering; and health care services related to care management, utilization management, disease management, payment integrity, revenue optimization and customer engagement to healthcare payers, providers, pharmacy benefit managers, and life sciences organizations. Further, it offers predictive and prescriptive analytics in the areas of customer acquisition and lifecycle management, risk underwriting and pricing, operational effectiveness, credit and operational risk monitoring and governance, payment integrity and care management, and data management. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Exlservice Holdings generates revenue primarily through its Business Process Management and analytics services. The company's revenue model is based on a combination of fixed-price contracts and time-and-materials arrangements. Key revenue streams include fees for operational and outsourcing services, consulting engagements, and analytics solutions tailored to client needs. Exl has established significant partnerships with various technology companies, which enhance its service offerings and capabilities. Additionally, the company's ability to leverage data and technology to deliver customized solutions contributes to its competitive advantage and revenue growth.

Exlservice Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: healthy profitability (TTM gross margin 38.05%, net margin 12.00%), solid ROE (24.17%), prudent leverage (debt-to-equity 0.32), and robust cash generation (operating cash flow to net income 1.20; FCF to net income 0.85). Revenue/FCF growth is positive but modest on a TTM basis (revenue +2.92%, FCF +3.27%).

Income Statement

Exlservice Holdings has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory over the years, highlighted by a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.92%. The company maintains healthy profitability margins, with a TTM gross profit margin of 38.05% and a net profit margin of 12.00%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown improvement, indicating efficient operational management. Overall, the income statement reflects robust financial health and growth potential.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Exlservice Holdings shows a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32 in the TTM period, indicating prudent leverage management. The return on equity is strong at 24.17%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio of 54.94% suggests a solid equity base relative to total assets. While the company has reduced its debt levels over time, maintaining this trend will be crucial for sustaining financial stability.

Cash Flow

Exlservice Holdings exhibits strong cash flow performance, with a TTM free cash flow growth rate of 3.27% and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.85, indicating efficient cash generation relative to profits. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.20 suggests robust cash flow from operations, supporting the company's ability to fund growth and meet obligations. Continued focus on cash flow management will be key to maintaining this positive trajectory.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.03B	1.84B	1.63B	1.41B	1.12B	958.43M
Gross Profit	774.84M	691.01M	607.77M	515.45M	431.36M	334.50M
EBITDA	417.71M	357.59M	321.59M	276.24M	229.58M	204.18M
Net Income	241.44M	198.30M	184.56M	142.97M	114.76M	89.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.73B	1.62B	1.44B	1.35B	1.28B	1.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	401.46M	350.55M	294.90M	302.59M	320.05M	407.51M
Total Debt	434.46M	366.61M	271.76M	313.65M	347.38M	331.24M
Total Liabilities	781.24M	688.54M	552.53M	587.94M	589.75M	528.68M
Stockholders Equity	952.39M	929.86M	889.44M	758.18M	693.16M	719.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	286.88M	222.26M	158.40M	121.31M	147.14M	160.75M
Operating Cash Flow	338.68M	268.52M	211.20M	166.14M	184.39M	202.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-107.23M	-119.10M	-12.00M	-96.55M	-114.27M	-18.32M
Financing Cash Flow	-214.86M	-119.10M	-181.45M	-81.72M	-146.88M	-89.56M

Exlservice Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXLS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.24, above the 50-day MA of 39.09, and below the 200-day MA of 42.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.44 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXLS.

Exlservice Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
G	73 Outperform	$6.76B	12.52	22.37%	1.41%	7.40%	-14.45%
EXLS	72 Outperform	$4.90B	20.60	25.96%	―	14.43%	29.86%
CACI	72 Outperform	$12.52B	25.31	13.18%	―	12.61%	11.85%
EPAM	68 Neutral	$9.26B	20.67	10.34%	―	14.26%	-15.49%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
CNXC	50 Neutral	$2.03B	-1.56	-37.82%	3.38%	3.40%	53.13%

Exlservice Holdings Corporate Events

Exlservice Holdings Repurchases Shares from Orogen Echo

On December 15, 2025, EXL repurchased 1,551,970 shares of its common stock from Orogen Echo LLC for $63,373,143, reflecting confidence in its performance and future growth. This transaction, separate from EXL’s $500 million share repurchase program, underscores the company’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders while maintaining strategic partnerships, as Orogen’s CEO Vikram Pandit continues as EXL’s Lead Independent Director.

The most recent analyst rating on (EXLS) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exlservice Holdings stock, see the EXLS Stock Forecast page.