Repsol (REP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €19.30B
• Dividend Yield: 6.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: -6.61%
• EPS Growth: -44.09%
• Country: ES
• Employees: 25,136
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 1,105,374,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,191,026
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,972,537
• PEG Ratio: 0.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €17.94
• Price Target Upside: -1.97% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: €20.00 ▲(9.29% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/20/26

Overall score reflects softened financial fundamentals versus 2022 (lower earnings, shrinking revenue, and more volatile free cash flow) offset by strong current technical momentum and supportive valuation (low P/E with a ~5% dividend yield).

Positive Factors

Diversified business model

Repsol's integrated model — exploration/production, refining/distribution and growing renewables — provides multiple durable cash sources. Vertical integration and retail networks help capture margins across the value chain and reduce reliance on any single commodity cycle over months.

Stable operating cash flow

Consistent ~€5.0B operating cash flow supports working capital, capex and financing needs even as earnings vary. This recurring cash generation provides a durable buffer to fund investments, service debt and maintain dividends across a multi-month horizon.

Venezuela licensing opportunity

U.S. licensing and Venezuela's plan to grant acreage could unlock new upstream volumes and reserves for Repsol. If executed, access to Venezuelan production is a structural medium-term growth vector that can augment upstream supply and diversify geographic exposure.

Negative Factors

Shrinking revenue trend

A ~20% revenue drop in 2025 and a multi-year shrinking top line weaken scale advantages and strain margin flexibility. Persistent top-line contraction undermines reinvestment capacity and makes sustaining long-term growth and consistent returns more challenging.

Volatile, weaker free cash flow

Material swings in free cash flow reduce predictability for dividends, buybacks and debt reduction. Volatility from heavier investment, working-capital swings or margin pressure limits financial flexibility and raises execution risk for medium-term capital allocation plans.

Sovereign payment recovery risk

Large unpaid receivables (~$6B) tied to Venezuela create a structural credit and cash-recovery risk. Prolonged inability to collect reduces net liquidity and can impair returns from related projects, complicating investment and working-capital planning over the coming months.

Repsol Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Repsol, S.A. operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. Its Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas reserves. The company's Industrial segment is involved in refining activities and petrochemicals business; the trading and transportation of crude oil and oil products; and the sale, transportation, and regasification of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Its Commercial and Renewables segment engages in the low carbon power generation and renewable sources; sale of gas and power; mobility and sale of oil products; and liquified petroleum gas activities. The company also offers asphalt products; installs, operates, and manages service stations; provides maritime services; constructs and operates oil refineries; refines and markets hydrocarbons; offers human resource services; distributes and supplies electricity; and develops new energy source, solar, and wind projects, as well as produces and markets chemical products, lubricants, and biofuels. Further, it is involved in fuel and special products marketing, research, trading and transport, insurance and reinsurance, technology development, and financing activities; develops nanoparticles and nanofibers for material, energy, and biomedicine applications; provides blockchain technology for retail, energy, and automotive sectors; produces synthetic oil cloths; invests in liquefaction plant project; and offers water treatment technology management services. The company was formerly known as Repsol YPF, S.A. and changed its name to Repsol, S.A. in May 2012. Repsol, S.A. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

How the Company Makes Money

Repsol generates revenue through multiple key streams. The upstream segment, which involves the exploration and production of oil and gas, is a significant contributor, as the company sells extracted crude oil and natural gas to various markets. In the downstream segment, Repsol earns money by refining crude oil into various petroleum products and by selling these products through its extensive network of service stations and distribution channels. Additionally, Repsol has been investing in renewable energy, enhancing its revenue potential through the sale of electricity and renewable fuels. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures, especially in exploration and renewable projects, also play a crucial role in augmenting revenue, enabling the company to share risks and access new markets.

Repsol Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitable with €1.9B net income (2025) and resilient operating cash flow (~€5.0B), but fundamentals have weakened notably since 2022: EBIT and net income have fallen materially and revenue declined ~20% in 2025. Balance sheet leverage remains moderate, though debt ticked up and equity dipped in 2025, and free cash flow has been volatile and below prior peaks.

Income Statement

Profitability is positive in the most recent annual period (2025) with €1.9B net income, but earnings power has cooled materially versus 2022–2023 (EBIT down from €5.9B in 2022 to €2.7B in 2025; net income down from €4.3B to €1.9B). Revenue has been shrinking for several years and fell ~20% in 2025, pointing to a weaker top-line environment. The company has recovered strongly from the 2020 loss, but the trend since 2022 suggests increasing cyclicality/pressure on margins and profits.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the industry: debt-to-equity improved from 0.77 (2020) to ~0.46 (2024), and equity remains substantial (~€25B). Total debt rose in 2025 to €13.4B (from €12.2B in 2024), and equity declined to €25.1B, which slightly weakens the trajectory. Returns on equity have normalized from very strong 2022 levels (16.8%) to mid-single digits in 2024 (6.6%), signaling less efficient capital returns in the current part of the cycle.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is solid and fairly stable (€5.0B in 2024 and €5.0B in 2025), supporting liquidity. However, free cash flow has become more volatile and weaker recently: €2.2B (2023) fell to €0.24B (2024) and improved to €1.2B (2025) but still below prior peaks, with negative free-cash-flow growth in both 2024 and 2025. This suggests heavier investment, working-capital swings, or a less favorable margin environment translating into less consistent cash available for shareholder returns or debt reduction.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.86B	57.12B	58.95B	69.29B	49.74B
Gross Profit	7.37B	7.75B	9.47B	16.11B	10.10B
EBITDA	5.13B	5.61B	7.22B	9.93B	6.74B
Net Income	1.90B	1.76B	3.17B	4.25B	2.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	59.43B	63.19B	61.63B	59.96B	56.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.98B	6.43B	8.87B	9.01B	7.84B
Total Debt	13.43B	12.19B	10.56B	13.36B	14.49B
Total Liabilities	31.81B	34.09B	32.56B	33.99B	33.46B
Stockholders Equity	25.14B	26.49B	26.20B	25.29B	22.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.21B	240.00M	2.22B	4.30B	2.77B
Operating Cash Flow	4.96B	4.96B	6.51B	7.83B	4.68B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.95B	-2.69B	-5.85B	-4.10B	-2.93B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.28B	-1.64B	-3.05B	-2.83B	-529.00M

Repsol Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:REP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.77, above the 50-day MA of 16.14, and above the 200-day MA of 14.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.79 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:REP.

Repsol Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SLR	76 Outperform	€2.43B	13.41	26.57%	―	43.90%	123.87%
GRE	70 Outperform	€2.93B	30.14	26.86%	―	―	―
REP	69 Neutral	€19.30B	10.89	3.24%	6.18%	-6.61%	-44.09%
ANA	69 Neutral	€11.02B	13.19	18.00%	2.87%	4.87%	339.22%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
TRE	58 Neutral	€2.66B	20.67	24.64%	―	41.87%	55.79%
SOL	40 Underperform	€249.70M	-0.50	―	―	-65.28%	24.77%