Repsol (REP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €27.13B
• Dividend Yield: 6.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: -6.61%
• EPS Growth: -44.09%
• Country: ES
• Employees: 25,136
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 1,105,374,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,191,026
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,972,537
• PEG Ratio: 0.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €21.81
• Price Target Upside: -12.02% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.86
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €54.38B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: €26.00 ▲(4.88% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is driven primarily by softened financial performance since the 2022 peak (lower earnings, shrinking revenue, and volatile free cash flow), partially offset by a still-manageable balance sheet and resilient operating cash generation. Technicals show a strong uptrend but are extremely overextended, which tempers the near-term outlook. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified integrated model

Repsol's presence across exploration & production, refining/trading, retail, chemicals and low-carbon power creates multiple, offsetting profit pools. This structural diversification reduces reliance on any single commodity cycle, supporting more stable revenue and operational flexibility over a multi‑month horizon.

Stable operating cash generation

Consistent ~€5.0B annual operating cash flow demonstrates durable cash generation from core operations. Reliable OCF underpins working capital, funds ongoing investments in energy transition and capex, and provides a base for servicing debt or sustaining distributions despite cyclic commodity swings.

Improved leverage and sizable equity base

A lower debt-to-equity ratio and a large equity base support financial resilience and flexibility. Manageable leverage provides capacity to fund strategic investments, absorb commodity volatility, and pursue transition projects without immediate pressure to deleverage, aiding multi‑month solvency and planning.

Negative Factors

Shrinking revenue trend

A ~20% revenue decline in 2025 and a multiyear downtrend signal weakening top-line scale. Prolonged revenue contraction can erode fixed‑cost coverage, reduce bargaining power in feedstock/refining markets and constrain reinvestment, pressuring margins and medium-term earnings capacity.

Volatile and weakened free cash flow

Wide swings in free cash flow reduce predictability for dividends, buybacks and debt reduction. Volatility suggests working capital swings, heavier capex or margin pressure; inconsistent FCF undermines capital allocation and increases refinancing or payout risk over the coming months.

Earnings power has cooled

Marked decline in EBIT and net income versus peak years indicates narrowed margins and reduced profitability resilience. Lower earnings power limits retained earnings for growth or transition investments and heightens sensitivity to future commodity or demand shocks over a medium‑term timeframe.

Repsol Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Repsol, S.A. operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. Its Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas reserves. The company's Industrial segment is involved in refining activities and petrochemicals business; the trading and transportation of crude oil and oil products; and the sale, transportation, and regasification of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Its Commercial and Renewables segment engages in the low carbon power generation and renewable sources; sale of gas and power; mobility and sale of oil products; and liquified petroleum gas activities. The company also offers asphalt products; installs, operates, and manages service stations; provides maritime services; constructs and operates oil refineries; refines and markets hydrocarbons; offers human resource services; distributes and supplies electricity; and develops new energy source, solar, and wind projects, as well as produces and markets chemical products, lubricants, and biofuels. Further, it is involved in fuel and special products marketing, research, trading and transport, insurance and reinsurance, technology development, and financing activities; develops nanoparticles and nanofibers for material, energy, and biomedicine applications; provides blockchain technology for retail, energy, and automotive sectors; produces synthetic oil cloths; invests in liquefaction plant project; and offers water treatment technology management services. The company was formerly known as Repsol YPF, S.A. and changed its name to Repsol, S.A. in May 2012. Repsol, S.A. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

How the Company Makes Money

Repsol makes money primarily through an integrated set of energy businesses spanning upstream, industrial, and customer-facing activities. (1) Upstream (Exploration & Production): Repsol generates revenue from producing and selling crude oil and natural gas. Earnings in this segment are driven by realized commodity prices (oil and gas benchmarks), production volumes, and the cost of finding and producing hydrocarbons. (2) Industrial (Refining, Trading, and Midstream/Logistics): Repsol purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, processes them in its refining system into products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, and other distillates, and sells these to wholesale and retail customers. Profitability is influenced by refining margins (the spread between product prices and crude/feedstock costs), utilization rates, operating efficiency, and product mix, as well as supply/logistics optimization. Repsol also earns from trading and commercial optimization activities in crude and refined products, where results depend on market conditions, arbitrage opportunities, and risk management. (3) Downstream Marketing & Retail: Repsol sells fuels and related products through service stations and other commercial channels, earning margins on fuel volumes sold. It can also generate ancillary revenue from non-fuel retail offerings at stations and other customer services; specific breakdowns are null. (4) Chemicals: Repsol manufactures and sells petrochemical products (e.g., basic petrochemicals and derivatives used in plastics and industrial applications). Revenue and earnings depend on sales volumes, product spreads (chemical selling prices relative to feedstock costs), and demand from end markets. (5) Low-carbon/power and other energy activities: Repsol participates in electricity generation and other energy-transition-related businesses; revenues typically come from selling electricity and/or energy services where applicable, but specific product-level monetization details are null. Across all segments, key factors affecting earnings include global oil and gas prices, refining and chemical margins, demand for transport fuels and petrochemicals, currency movements, regulatory/tax environments, and the performance of its asset base. Material partnership details contributing to earnings are null.

Repsol Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Positive profitability (€1.9B net income in 2025) and resilient operating cash flow (~€5.0B in 2024–2025) support the base score, but fundamentals have cooled materially since 2022–2023 (EBIT and net income down, revenue shrinking ~20% in 2025) and free cash flow has been volatile/weaker versus prior peaks.

Income Statement

Profitability is positive in the most recent annual period (2025) with €1.9B net income, but earnings power has cooled materially versus 2022–2023 (EBIT down from €5.9B in 2022 to €2.7B in 2025; net income down from €4.3B to €1.9B). Revenue has been shrinking for several years and fell ~20% in 2025, pointing to a weaker top-line environment. The company has recovered strongly from the 2020 loss, but the trend since 2022 suggests increasing cyclicality/pressure on margins and profits.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the industry: debt-to-equity improved from 0.77 (2020) to ~0.46 (2024), and equity remains substantial (~€25B). Total debt rose in 2025 to €13.4B (from €12.2B in 2024), and equity declined to €25.1B, which slightly weakens the trajectory. Returns on equity have normalized from very strong 2022 levels (16.8%) to mid-single digits in 2024 (6.6%), signaling less efficient capital returns in the current part of the cycle.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is solid and fairly stable (€5.0B in 2024 and €5.0B in 2025), supporting liquidity. However, free cash flow has become more volatile and weaker recently: €2.2B (2023) fell to €0.24B (2024) and improved to €1.2B (2025) but still below prior peaks, with negative free-cash-flow growth in both 2024 and 2025. This suggests heavier investment, working-capital swings, or a less favorable margin environment translating into less consistent cash available for shareholder returns or debt reduction.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.86B	57.12B	58.95B	69.29B	49.74B
Gross Profit	7.37B	7.75B	9.47B	16.11B	10.10B
EBITDA	5.13B	5.61B	7.22B	9.93B	6.74B
Net Income	1.90B	1.76B	3.17B	4.25B	2.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	59.43B	63.19B	61.63B	59.96B	56.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.98B	6.43B	8.87B	9.01B	7.84B
Total Debt	16.47B	12.19B	10.56B	13.36B	14.49B
Total Liabilities	31.81B	34.09B	32.56B	33.99B	33.46B
Stockholders Equity	25.14B	26.49B	26.20B	25.29B	22.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.21B	240.00M	2.22B	4.30B	2.77B
Operating Cash Flow	4.96B	4.96B	6.51B	7.83B	4.68B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.95B	-2.69B	-5.85B	-4.10B	-2.93B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.28B	-1.64B	-3.05B	-2.83B	-529.00M

Repsol Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:REP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.98, above the 50-day MA of 18.25, and above the 200-day MA of 15.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 88.66 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:REP.

Repsol Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
REP	64 Neutral	€27.13B	9.83	7.85%	6.18%	-6.61%	-44.09%
SLR	61 Neutral	€2.74B	7.29	26.57%	―	43.90%	123.87%
ANA	60 Neutral	€11.51B	12.61	18.00%	2.87%	4.87%	339.22%
TRE	59 Neutral	€2.24B	10.84	24.64%	―	41.87%	55.79%
GRE	54 Neutral	€2.94B	28.28	21.09%	―	―	―
SOL	40 Underperform	€710.31M	-1.68	―	―	-65.28%	24.77%