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Ferrovial SA (ES:FER)
BME:FER

Ferrovial (FER) AI Stock Analysis

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Ferrovial

(BME:FER)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
Ferrovial's strong financial performance, highlighted by robust revenue growth and operational efficiency, underpins its solid stock score. Positive momentum in technical indicators and reasonable valuation support the stock's prospects. The strong earnings call further emphasizes strategic growth, although high leverage and potential short-term overvaluation are risks to monitor.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Ferrovial published a consensus-beating set of FY-24 results, driven by the Heathrow capital gain and fair value.
Order Book Growth
The order book increased +7% LFL to €16.8bn, implying a 1.22x book-to-bill ratio, which bodes well for future activity.
Negative Factors
Macroeconomic Challenges
The combination of Macro/FX headwinds and nature of US managed lanes push EBITDA estimates down 5-7% over 2025-27e.
Valuation Concerns
Cintra's earnings appear too high and shares fail to offer a discounted entry point.

Ferrovial (FER) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)

Ferrovial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFerrovial, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an infrastructure and mobility operator in the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. The company engages in the design and construction of various public and private works; and development, finance, and operation of toll roads. Its construction activities include highways, tunnels, railways, bridges and viaducts, airports, intelligent toll systems, port and airport infrastructures, buildings, energy restoration, aqueducts, water treatment plants, desalination plants, digesters, thermal drying plants, chimneys and silos, caissons, storage tanks, solar power towers, oil facilities, and other construction. The company is also involved in the operation and maintenance services of urban and industrial waste water treatment plants, and water treatment and desalination plants. In addition, it develops, manufactures, and markets asphalt and bitumen products; develops, finances, and operates airports; provides integrated solutions for the development and management of electrical transmission networks; provides mobility services, including ZITY, an electric carsharing service application; undertakes engineering works; and sells hydraulic equipment. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
How the Company Makes MoneyFerrovial makes money through a diversified revenue model centered on its four main sectors: construction, toll roads, airports, and services. In the construction sector, Ferrovial earns revenue by undertaking large-scale infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, and railways, often through long-term contracts with governments and private entities. The toll roads segment generates income by operating and managing toll roads, where revenue comes from toll collections from vehicles using these roads. In the airports sector, Ferrovial generates revenue through its ownership and operation of airports, benefiting from landing fees, passenger fees, and commercial activities within the airport premises. The services segment includes facility management, waste management, and other municipal services, where revenue is generated through contracts with local governments and private clients. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures, particularly in toll roads and airports, also contribute to Ferrovial's earnings by expanding its operational reach and sharing investment burdens with partners.

Ferrovial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.49%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in North American highways and a robust financial position, alongside challenges like weather impacts on traffic and slight profitability declines in a construction segment.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Growth in North American Highways
The U.S. highways segment showed a revenue growth of 19.1% compared to Q1 2024, making up 98% of the highways revenue, with adjusted EBITDA growing at 14.6%.
Strong Performance of 407 ETR
The 407 ETR reported a remarkable 23.6% growth in toll revenue, with double EBITDA growth, attributed to new toll rates and targeted traffic promotions.
Solid Net Cash Position
Ferrovial ended the quarter with a net cash position of €1.9 billion, bolstered by the divestment of AGS for €538 million and a €152 million equity injection in NTO.
Positive Developments in Airports
At JFK, development progressed with a 6% advancement, and agreements with 18 airlines were reached. Dalaman airport also saw higher than expected domestic traffic growth.
Steady Construction Profitability
Construction segments like Budimex and Ferrovial Construction reported solid margins, with an overall adjusted EBIT margin of 3.3%.
Negative Updates
Weather Impact on Traffic
Severe weather conditions negatively affected traffic performance across North American roadways in January and February.
Construction Challenges
Budimex's profitability slightly decreased compared to the previous year due to prior indexation cap updates affecting public contracts.
Company Guidance
During the Ferrovial conference call for the first quarter of 2025, CFO Ernesto López Mozo highlighted several key metrics. The highways division showed significant growth, with U.S. managed lanes revenue up 19.1% year-over-year, contributing to a 14.1% overall revenue increase. The adjusted EBIT margin for construction reached 3.3%, and a net cash position of €1.9 billion was reported, supported by a €538 million AGS divestment. The company's acquisition of a 5.06% stake in the 407 ETR for up to CAD2.09 billion is expected to close in Q2 2025. The toll revenue for 407 ETR grew by 23.6%, and adjusted EBITDA for U.S. highways increased by 14.6%. Despite adverse weather, Dallas Fort Worth managed lanes saw strong revenue per transaction growth. In terms of corporate events, the Silvertown Tunnel in East London was opened in April. The order book remains robust with a 3.5% adjusted EBIT margin target. Ferrovial's strategic moves, including equity injections and share buybacks, further underline its solid financial standing.

Ferrovial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ferrovial displays a solid financial performance with notable revenue and profit growth. The company has effectively managed its operations to maintain high margins and improve equity returns. While leverage remains high, cash flow generation is robust, supporting ongoing investments and financial stability. Potential risks include reliance on debt financing and EBIT volatility, but overall, the financial outlook remains positive.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Ferrovial shows strong revenue growth, with a 7.43% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at around 87.85%, and the net profit margin improved significantly to 35.42%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, indicating efficient operational management. However, fluctuations in EBIT over the years suggest potential volatility.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high, reflecting significant leverage with a ratio of approximately 1.90 in 2024. Despite this, return on equity has improved, reaching 53.33%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds. The equity ratio stands at 20.94%, suggesting moderate reliance on equity financing.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Free cash flow growth is slightly negative at -9.35%, but the company maintains a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.40, reflecting solid cash generation capability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.33, indicating good cash conversion efficiency.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
8.84B9.15B8.51B7.55B6.78B6.34B
Gross Profit
8.59B8.03B7.38B6.35B5.70B5.34B
EBIT
755.00M3.11B625.00M690.00M185.00M-143.00M
EBITDA
1.09B4.54B1.31B756.00M610.00M116.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
553.00M3.24B460.00M185.00M1.20B-356.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
5.09B4.81B4.76B5.09B5.48B6.42B
Total Assets
26.28B29.00B26.32B26.28B24.90B23.13B
Total Debt
11.84B11.53B11.56B11.84B10.75B9.76B
Net Debt
6.75B6.72B6.81B6.75B5.28B3.33B
Total Liabilities
19.93B20.88B20.44B19.93B19.06B19.30B
Stockholders Equity
4.11B6.08B3.77B4.11B4.05B3.19B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
813.00M1.07B1.18B907.00M686.00M977.00M
Operating Cash Flow
1.18B1.29B1.26B1.00B810.00M1.09B
Investing Cash Flow
-945.00M1.31B-531.00M-732.00M457.00M382.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.27B-2.59B-1.30B-316.00M-2.22B430.00M

Ferrovial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price45.10
Price Trends
50DMA
42.55
Positive
100DMA
41.82
Positive
200DMA
39.86
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.65
Positive
RSI
57.82
Neutral
STOCH
20.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:FER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.13, above the 50-day MA of 42.55, and above the 200-day MA of 39.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:FER.

Ferrovial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ESFER
78
Outperform
€32.11B10.0865.54%1.47%7.43%608.14%
66
Neutral
$4.50B12.285.32%248.52%4.13%-12.36%
€15.00B17.8116.48%2.83%
€1.67B16.1711.89%1.85%
€2.21B16.61-11.39%21.02%
€5.57B12.798.78%4.27%
€2.71B23.1112.85%3.63%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ES:FER
Ferrovial
45.10
9.77
27.64%
GB:0HAC
Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA
57.54
18.28
46.56%
GB:0RKF
Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles
48.75
14.39
41.88%
GB:0K97
Elecnor
26.10
10.74
69.92%
GB:0HAA
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas
12.34
1.99
19.23%
GB:0OFU
Sacyr SA
3.49
0.19
5.76%

Ferrovial Corporate Events

Ferrovial Completes Share Buyback Program
Jun 2, 2025

Ferrovial has announced the completion of its share buyback program, which was initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. The program concluded on May 30, 2025, with the acquisition of 13,470,000 shares, amounting to approximately 1.846% of the company’s share capital, at a total cost of 537,835,879.02 euros. This strategic move is likely to impact Ferrovial’s market positioning by potentially enhancing shareholder value and reflecting confidence in the company’s financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:FER) stock is a Buy with a EUR49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrovial stock, see the ES:FER Stock Forecast page.

Ferrovial Announces Interim Dividend of 0.3182 Euros Per Share
May 21, 2025

Ferrovial has announced an interim dividend of 0.3182 euros per share, totaling 228 million euros, with shareholders having the option to receive the dividend in cash or shares. This announcement reflects Ferrovial’s commitment to providing flexible dividend options to its shareholders, potentially impacting its financial strategy and shareholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:FER) stock is a Buy with a EUR49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrovial stock, see the ES:FER Stock Forecast page.

Ferrovial Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program
May 20, 2025

Ferrovial has reported on its ongoing share buyback program, which was initially announced in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. As of May 16, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 12,870,000 shares, amounting to over 507 million euros. This program is part of Ferrovial’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:FER) stock is a Buy with a EUR49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrovial stock, see the ES:FER Stock Forecast page.

Ferrovial Introduces Flexible Dividend Plan for 2025
May 13, 2025

Ferrovial has announced a flexible dividend plan for 2025, allowing shareholders to choose between receiving dividends in cash or in new shares. This strategic move is expected to provide shareholders with more flexibility and could potentially enhance the company’s market appeal by aligning shareholder interests with company growth, while also considering tax implications and market regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:FER) stock is a Buy with a EUR49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrovial stock, see the ES:FER Stock Forecast page.

Ferrovial’s Q1 2025 Financial Results Highlight Strategic Focus Amid Global Challenges
May 13, 2025

Ferrovial’s unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2025 reveal the company’s ongoing strategic focus on large infrastructure projects amid a challenging global economic environment. The report highlights the company’s exposure to various risks, including geopolitical tensions, economic fluctuations, and regulatory changes, which could impact its operations and financial performance. Despite these challenges, Ferrovial is committed to maintaining its market position and meeting its ESG commitments, while navigating the complexities of international operations and competitive pressures.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:FER) stock is a Buy with a EUR49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrovial stock, see the ES:FER Stock Forecast page.

Ferrovial Reports Strong Q1 2025 Growth Driven by North American Operations
May 13, 2025

Ferrovial reported notable growth in the first quarter of 2025, with increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA driven by strong performance in its North American highway assets. The Construction division also saw a significant rise in its order book and profitability, while the Airports division continued its planned progress at JFK International Airport’s New Terminal One. The company’s solid financial position and strategic asset sales further bolster its market standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:FER) stock is a Buy with a EUR49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrovial stock, see the ES:FER Stock Forecast page.

Ferrovial Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program
May 13, 2025

Ferrovial has reported on its ongoing share buyback program, which was initially announced in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. As of May 9, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 12,570,000 shares, amounting to 493,989,834.56 euros. This program reflects Ferrovial’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:FER) stock is a Buy with a EUR49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrovial stock, see the ES:FER Stock Forecast page.

Ferrovial Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program
May 7, 2025

Ferrovial has reported on its share buyback program, which commenced on August 23, 2024, and was modified on December 13, 2024. As of May 2, 2025, the company has acquired 12,270,000 shares for a total of 480,898,732.32 euros. This program is part of Ferrovial’s strategic financial operations, potentially impacting its market position and shareholder value.

Ferrovial SE to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
Apr 25, 2025

Ferrovial SE has announced that it will release its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 on May 13, 2025, after the U.S. stock market closes. The following day, a presentation conference will be held to discuss these results, indicating the company’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Ferrovial Announces Key Decisions from 2025 Shareholders’ Meeting
Apr 24, 2025

Ferrovial’s 2025 General Shareholders’ Meeting resulted in several key decisions, including the approval of the 2024 fiscal year’s annual accounts and the re-election of several directors. The meeting also saw the appointment of PriceWaterhouseCoopers as the external auditor for the next three years and authorized the Board to issue shares and manage share capital flexibly. These decisions are set to impact Ferrovial’s operational flexibility and strategic positioning, potentially enhancing shareholder value and aligning with sustainability goals.

Ferrovial Executes Operations in Share Buyback Program
Apr 22, 2025

Ferrovial has announced the execution of operations under its share buyback program, which was initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. The recent operations conducted between April 11 and April 17, 2025, are part of this ongoing program, reflecting the company’s strategic financial management and potential implications for shareholder value.

Ferrovial Executes Operations in Share Buyback Program
Apr 15, 2025

Ferrovial announced the execution of operations under its share buyback program between April 7 and April 10, 2025. This program, initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024, reflects the company’s strategic efforts to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Ferrovial’s 2024 Integrated Annual Report Highlights Sustainability and Compliance
Apr 4, 2025

Ferrovial has released its 2024 Integrated Annual Report, detailing its management and financial performance, sustainability efforts, and compliance with international regulations. The report highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and alignment with global standards, impacting its operations and stakeholder relations positively.

Ferrovial Executes Share Buyback Operations
Mar 18, 2025

Ferrovial has announced the execution of operations within its share buyback program, initially launched in August 2024 and modified in December 2024. The recent operations were conducted between March 10 and March 14, 2025, as part of the ongoing program, indicating the company’s continued focus on managing its share capital.

Ferrovial Launches Strategic Share Buyback Program
Mar 14, 2025

Ferrovial has announced a share buyback program aimed at reducing its share capital by purchasing up to 15 million shares, representing approximately 2.06% of its share capital, with a maximum net investment of 500 million euros. The program is set to run until May 29, 2026, and will adhere to regulatory standards in both European and U.S. markets, with the potential for extension or early termination based on certain conditions. This move is likely to impact the company’s market positioning and shareholder value, demonstrating its strategic financial management.

Ferrovial Announces 2025 General Shareholders’ Meeting
Mar 14, 2025

Ferrovial has announced the call for its General Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for April 24, 2025, in Amsterdam. The meeting will be a hybrid event, allowing shareholders to attend and vote either in person or electronically. Key agenda items include discussions on the company’s financial and ESG performance for 2024, approval of annual accounts, climate strategy, and re-election of board members. The board recommends voting in favor of all proposed resolutions, which are expected to benefit Ferrovial and its stakeholders.

Ferrovial Expands Stake in Toronto’s 407 ETR Highway
Mar 13, 2025

Ferrovial has agreed to acquire up to a 5.06% stake in the 407 ETR highway from AtkinsRéalis, increasing its total ownership to 48.29%. This transaction, valued at approximately 2.090 billion Canadian dollars, is structured in two parts and is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025. The 407 ETR is a significant toll road in the Toronto metropolitan area, crucial for reducing traffic congestion. This acquisition underscores Ferrovial’s long-term commitment to enhancing infrastructure and mobility in the region, strengthening its position in the North American market.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.