Ferrovial SA (ES:FER)
BME:FER
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Ferrovial
(BME:FER)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
€58.00
▲(6.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is supported primarily by strong operating/cash-flow performance and constructive earnings-call guidance (growth, record order book, and shareholder distributions). Offsetting this are weak near-term technical momentum signals and a demanding valuation, with leverage and earnings volatility remaining key financial risks.
Positive Factors
Robust free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable free cash flow (~€1.4bn, +54% y/y) strengthens Ferrovial’s structural ability to fund capex, dividends, buybacks and portfolio rebalancing without relying solely on new debt. Durable FCF capacity supports capital returns and deleveraging over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
Material historical leverage leaves less financial cushion against cyclical shocks. Even with improvement, elevated debt levels constrain flexibility, increase interest expense sensitivity and make results contingent on continued strong cash conversion and access to refinancing over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable free cash flow (~€1.4bn, +54% y/y) strengthens Ferrovial’s structural ability to fund capex, dividends, buybacks and portfolio rebalancing without relying solely on new debt. Durable FCF capacity supports capital returns and deleveraging over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Ferrovial (FER) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€39.26B
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)44.8
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth5.75%
EPS Growth346.20%
CountryES
Employees25,264
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding733,755,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,205,499
30 Day Avg. Volume1,377,755
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.62
Price to Book (P/B)6.73
Price to Sales (P/S)4.13
P/FCF Ratio27.85
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€65.08Price Target Upside19.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1
Revenue Forecast (FY)€9.93B
Ferrovial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ferrovial, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an infrastructure and mobility operator in the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. The company engages in the design and construction of variou...
How the Company Makes Money
Ferrovial makes money primarily through long-term infrastructure concessions and project-based construction/services. A major revenue source is toll road operations under concession agreements: it earns toll and usage fees from drivers (directly o...
Ferrovial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: company-wide revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, record project dividends, a record construction order book, positive cash generation and a strengthened North American platform (including increased 407 stake and multiple U.S. bids). These positives were tempered by localized traffic softness tied to construction works, one-off provisions (credit loss and Schedule 22), some Q4 EBITDA headwinds from FX and bidding costs, and a delay in NTO phase opening. On balance, the scale and quality of earnings, cash generation and strategic progress materially outweigh the transitory challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenue EUR 9.6bn, up 8.6% year-over-year like-for-like; adjusted EBITDA EUR 1.5bn, up 12.2% like-for-like, driven by U.S. Highways and Construction.
Negative Updates
Q4 Highways EBITDA Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter declined 2.9% YoY, impacted by foreign exchange movements and higher bidding costs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenue EUR 9.6bn, up 8.6% year-over-year like-for-like; adjusted EBITDA EUR 1.5bn, up 12.2% like-for-like, driven by U.S. Highways and Construction.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated disciplined capital allocation and growth funded from portfolio cash flow, proposing a EUR 1.0bn dividend (EUR 400m top‑up) that would bring aggregate 2024–26 distributions to EUR 2.2bn, while preserving optional leverage headroom (internal ~2x net debt/EBITDA proxy) and a net cash position ex‑infra of negative net debt of $1.3bn; investments in 2025 totaled EUR 1,970m (including ~EUR 1.3bn for an additional 5% in 407 ETR and EUR 236m equity into NTO), divestments were EUR 1,158m (Heathrow EUR 539m, AGS EUR 533m), share buybacks reached EUR 501m and cash dividends to shareholders EUR 156m. Operational and target guidance emphasized continued U.S. highways and construction-led growth (group revenue EUR 9.6bn, +8.6% LFL; adjusted EBITDA EUR 1.5bn, +12.2% LFL), record construction order book EUR 17.4bn (+10.1% LFL) with construction revenue EUR 7.7bn (+7.5%), adjusted EBITDA EUR 511m (+19.9%) and adjusted EBIT EUR 352m (+24.2%) (division margin 4.6% vs long‑term adjusted EBIT target 3.5%); project milestones include NTO 82% complete with Phase A refinancing of $1.4bn and first‑phase operational readiness targeted for fall 2026, continued promotions/segmentation at 407 (traffic +6.1%, revenue +17.8%, tolls +17.6%, EBITDA +14.2%, dividends CAD 1.5bn) and expectations that select toll rates (e.g., I‑66) will grow above inflation, supported by a “record” U.S. pipeline and recurring dividends from projects of EUR 968m in 2025.Ferrovial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.63B | 9.15B | 8.51B | 7.55B | 6.91B |
| Gross Profit | 2.39B | 2.28B | 2.13B | 1.63B | 1.44B |
| EBITDA | 1.46B | 1.30B | 1.04B | 658.00M | 609.00M |
| Net Income | 888.00M | 3.24B | 460.00M | 127.00M | 748.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 27.42B | 29.00B | 26.32B | 26.28B | 24.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.24B | 4.81B | 4.76B | 5.09B | 5.48B |
| Total Debt | 10.73B | 11.53B | 11.56B | 11.84B | 10.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.75B | 20.88B | 20.44B | 19.93B | 19.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.91B | 6.08B | 3.77B | 4.11B | 4.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.43B | 1.07B | 1.18B | 907.00M | 686.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.61B | 1.29B | 1.26B | 1.00B | 810.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | 1.31B | -531.00M | -732.00M | 457.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -2.59B | -1.30B | -316.00M | -2.22B |
Ferrovial Technical Analysis
Negative
54.66
Price Trends
58.41
Negative
57.23
Negative
52.30
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.35
Positive
39.95
Neutral
52.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:FER, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 54.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.80, below the 50-day MA of 58.41, and above the 200-day MA of 52.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ES:FER.
Ferrovial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | €1.91B | 13.79 | 21.55% | 2.28% | 6.84% | 16.03% | |
67 Neutral | €2.71B | 18.70 | -3.10% | 13.00% | 11.61% | -212.68% | |
65 Neutral | €26.71B | 18.49 | 20.71% | 2.38% | 25.47% | 7.63% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | €39.26B | 44.79 | 69.30% | 1.42% | 5.75% | 346.20% | |
55 Neutral | €4.93B | ― | 7.94% | 4.49% | 5.00% | -64.19% | |
53 Neutral | €3.29B | 32.80 | 8.86% | 5.28% | 2.03% | -32.59% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ES:FER
Ferrovial
54.66
13.48
32.73%
ES:ACS
Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA
102.50
49.33
92.77%
ES:CAF
Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles
55.80
16.09
40.50%
ES:ENO
Elecnor
32.00
16.17
102.19%
ES:FCC
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas
10.42
0.04
0.34%
ES:SCYR
Sacyr SA
4.17
0.92
28.47%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.