Ferrovial SA (ES:FER)
BME:FER
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Ferrovial
(BME:FER)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
€61.00
▲(0.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/07/26
The score is primarily supported by strong revenue momentum and solid free-cash-flow generation, but is weighed down by a debt-heavy balance sheet and inconsistent earnings. Technicals are broadly neutral, while valuation is a key negative due to the high P/E and only modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Concession-backed, diversified business model
Ferrovial’s core model—long-duration toll-road and airport concessions plus construction—creates durable, contract-backed cash flows and recurring revenue. Diversification across mobility, airports and engineering reduces dependency on any single cycle and supports multi-year cash visibility for project finance and reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage remains
Despite improvement, material leverage leaves Ferrovial exposed to interest-rate and refinancing risk. High debt levels constrain strategic optionality, increase fixed costs, and reduce tolerance for project delays or traffic downturns, making consistent deleveraging a prerequisite for long-term resilience.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Concession-backed, diversified business model
Ferrovial’s core model—long-duration toll-road and airport concessions plus construction—creates durable, contract-backed cash flows and recurring revenue. Diversification across mobility, airports and engineering reduces dependency on any single cycle and supports multi-year cash visibility for project finance and reinvestment.
Read all positive factors
Ferrovial (FER) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€41.87B
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.1
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth5.25%
EPS Growth-72.42%
CountryES
Employees25,264
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.24
Shares Outstanding733,755,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,205,499
30 Day Avg. Volume1,377,755
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.62
Price to Book (P/B)6.73
Price to Sales (P/S)4.13
P/FCF Ratio27.85
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€65.41Price Target Upside7.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)€10.01B
Ferrovial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ferrovial SE, a global leader in infrastructure and mobility, operates across the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and various other international markets through its subsidiaries. Its core business activities include the ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ferrovial makes money primarily through long-term infrastructure concessions and project-based construction/services. A major revenue source is toll road operations under concession agreements: it earns toll and usage fees from drivers (directly o...
Ferrovial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: company-wide revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, record project dividends, a record construction order book, positive cash generation and a strengthened North American platform (including increased 407 stake and multiple U.S. bids). These positives were tempered by localized traffic softness tied to construction works, one-off provisions (credit loss and Schedule 22), some Q4 EBITDA headwinds from FX and bidding costs, and a delay in NTO phase opening. On balance, the scale and quality of earnings, cash generation and strategic progress materially outweigh the transitory challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenue EUR 9.6bn, up 8.6% year-over-year like-for-like; adjusted EBITDA EUR 1.5bn, up 12.2% like-for-like, driven by U.S. Highways and Construction.
Negative Updates
Q4 Highways EBITDA Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter declined 2.9% YoY, impacted by foreign exchange movements and higher bidding costs.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenue EUR 9.6bn, up 8.6% year-over-year like-for-like; adjusted EBITDA EUR 1.5bn, up 12.2% like-for-like, driven by U.S. Highways and Construction.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated disciplined capital allocation and growth funded from portfolio cash flow, proposing a EUR 1.0bn dividend (EUR 400m top‑up) that would bring aggregate 2024–26 distributions to EUR 2.2bn, while preserving optional leverage headroom (internal ~2x net debt/EBITDA proxy) and a net cash position ex‑infra of negative net debt of $1.3bn; investments in 2025 totaled EUR 1,970m (including ~EUR 1.3bn for an additional 5% in 407 ETR and EUR 236m equity into NTO), divestments were EUR 1,158m (Heathrow EUR 539m, AGS EUR 533m), share buybacks reached EUR 501m and cash dividends to shareholders EUR 156m. Operational and target guidance emphasized continued U.S. highways and construction-led growth (group revenue EUR 9.6bn, +8.6% LFL; adjusted EBITDA EUR 1.5bn, +12.2% LFL), record construction order book EUR 17.4bn (+10.1% LFL) with construction revenue EUR 7.7bn (+7.5%), adjusted EBITDA EUR 511m (+19.9%) and adjusted EBIT EUR 352m (+24.2%) (division margin 4.6% vs long‑term adjusted EBIT target 3.5%); project milestones include NTO 82% complete with Phase A refinancing of $1.4bn and first‑phase operational readiness targeted for fall 2026, continued promotions/segmentation at 407 (traffic +6.1%, revenue +17.8%, tolls +17.6%, EBITDA +14.2%, dividends CAD 1.5bn) and expectations that select toll rates (e.g., I‑66) will grow above inflation, supported by a “record” U.S. pipeline and recurring dividends from projects of EUR 968m in 2025.Ferrovial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.63B | 9.15B | 8.51B | 7.55B | 6.91B |
| Gross Profit | 2.39B | 2.28B | 2.13B | 1.63B | 1.44B |
| EBITDA | 2.00B | 4.54B | 1.52B | 921.00M | 1.51B |
| Net Income | 888.00M | 3.24B | 460.00M | 127.00M | 748.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 27.42B | 29.00B | 26.32B | 26.28B | 24.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.24B | 4.81B | 4.76B | 5.09B | 5.48B |
| Total Debt | 10.73B | 11.53B | 11.56B | 11.84B | 10.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.75B | 20.88B | 20.44B | 19.93B | 19.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.91B | 6.08B | 3.77B | 4.11B | 4.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.43B | 1.07B | 1.18B | 907.00M | 686.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.61B | 1.29B | 1.26B | 1.00B | 810.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | 1.31B | -531.00M | -732.00M | 457.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -2.59B | -1.30B | -316.00M | -2.22B |
Ferrovial Technical Analysis
Positive
60.90
Price Trends
58.32
Negative
58.04
Positive
55.45
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
52.63
Neutral
48.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:FER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.73, above the 50-day MA of 58.32, and above the 200-day MA of 55.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:FER.
Ferrovial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | €38.91B | 18.33 | 24.42% | 4.09% | 10.03% | 9.63% | |
65 Neutral | €33.39B | 32.79 | 21.61% | 2.38% | 19.73% | 14.15% | |
60 Neutral | €14.19B | 20.26 | 14.59% | 2.87% | 5.45% | 90.20% | |
58 Neutral | €41.87B | 48.11 | 15.04% | 1.42% | 5.25% | -72.42% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
55 Neutral | €5.51B | 33.61 | 5.36% | 4.49% | 6.93% | -64.18% | |
53 Neutral | €3.66B | 38.59 | 9.97% | 5.28% | 1.75% | -19.54% |
* General Sector Average
ES:FER
Ferrovial
59.28
15.37
34.99%
ES:ANA
Acciona
252.60
108.68
75.51%
ES:ACS
Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA
124.70
69.58
126.23%
ES:AENA
Aena SA
26.50
3.98
17.65%
ES:FCC
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas
11.68
-0.16
-1.31%
ES:SCYR
Sacyr SA
4.66
1.16
33.28%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.