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Ferrovial SA (ES:FER)
BME:FER
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Ferrovial (FER) AI Stock Analysis

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ES:FER

Ferrovial

(BME:FER)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
€57.00
▲(2.33% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is supported mainly by solid financial performance (strong growth and cash generation) and a generally constructive earnings-call update (net cash position and record order book). Offsetting this, the stock’s technical setup is weak (trading below key moving averages) and valuation looks demanding with a high P/E, while project/timing risks (notably JFK delay and traffic variability) add uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained and growing free cash flow (~€1.4bn, +54% in 2025) underpins Ferrovial's ability to fund capital expenditures, reinvest in concessions, pay project dividends and reduce gross leverage over time, enhancing financial resilience through cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage despite improvement
Although leverage has fallen materially from prior years, net debt near 1.8x equity still constrains flexibility. Higher structural leverage raises refinancing and interest‑cost sensitivity, reducing headroom to absorb prolonged traffic or construction setbacks without asset disposals.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained and growing free cash flow (~€1.4bn, +54% in 2025) underpins Ferrovial's ability to fund capital expenditures, reinvest in concessions, pay project dividends and reduce gross leverage over time, enhancing financial resilience through cycles.
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Ferrovial (FER) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)

Ferrovial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Ferrovial SE, a global leader in infrastructure and mobility, operates across the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and various other international markets through its subsidiaries. Its core business activities include the ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ferrovial makes money through a mix of long-term concession income, infrastructure services revenue, and investment-related returns. A core earnings driver is its toll road concessions: the company invests in and operates toll highways under multi...

Ferrovial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong cash generation, a net cash position (EUR 1.3bn excl. projects), solid highway and construction revenue/EBITDA growth, and an all‑time high order book. Offsetting risks include the JFK Terminal 1 delay (and associated liquidated damages), localized traffic softness and construction impacts on some managed lanes, a stepped‑up revenue‑share impact on I‑66, higher financial/ depreciation charges and exposed airport weakness (Dalaman). On balance, the highlights (cash, dividends, highways performance, construction recovery and order book strength) outweigh the lowlights, though several timing and operational risks warrant monitoring.
Positive Updates
Strong North American Highways Performance
Highways (notably Canadian 407 ETR and U.S. managed lanes) drove semester performance with robust revenue and cash generation: total dividends collected from projects of EUR 378 million; significant operating cash flow from construction of EUR 329 million; group net cash position of EUR 1.3 billion (excluding infrastructure projects).
Negative Updates
JFK Terminal 1 Delay and Liquidated Damages Exposure
New Terminal 1 at JFK is delayed relative to prior expectations; remedial plan sets March 2027 for Phase DBO. Liquidated damages of USD 500,000 per day began in July and will continue until opening (subject to contractor challenge), representing a material operational/time risk.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong North American Highways Performance
Highways (notably Canadian 407 ETR and U.S. managed lanes) drove semester performance with robust revenue and cash generation: total dividends collected from projects of EUR 378 million; significant operating cash flow from construction of EUR 329 million; group net cash position of EUR 1.3 billion (excluding infrastructure projects).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance in the call was largely directional: management reiterated a long‑term construction adjusted EBIT margin target of 3.5% and set a remedial completion/Phase DBO date for JFK New Terminal 1 of March 2027 (project ~92% complete; total equity invested €1,041m with the final €63m injected); bids for I‑24 (Tennessee) and I‑85/I‑285 (Georgia/Atlanta) are pending with results expected in Q3 and a Czech availability bid is in technical evaluation; the company expects the one‑off impact of the revenue‑share step‑up (25%→50%, H1 accrual ~$15.6m) to normalize as revenues grow; financial posture remains strong with net cash (ex‑projects) of ~€1.3bn, H1 operating cash flow €329m, dividends from projects €378m, divestments ~€96m and investments ~€187m; construction reported revenue growth +7.1% (+9.7% LFL) with an €18bn order book (↑2.8% LFL vs Dec‑25); no specific dividend or buyback targets were provided (buyback authorisation up to €800m to Oct) and timing for a Capital Markets Day is undecided.

Ferrovial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue momentum and solid free cash flow generation support the operating profile, but earnings volatility and a still debt-heavy balance sheet (despite improvement) reduce confidence in consistency through a softer cycle.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.86B9.63B9.15B8.51B7.55B6.91B
Gross Profit1.03B2.39B2.28B2.13B1.63B1.44B
EBITDA1.63B2.00B4.54B1.52B921.00M1.51B
Net Income606.00M888.00M3.24B460.00M127.00M748.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets27.22B27.42B29.00B26.32B26.28B24.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.86B4.24B4.81B4.76B5.09B5.48B
Total Debt10.66B10.73B11.53B11.56B11.84B10.75B
Total Liabilities19.82B19.75B20.88B20.44B19.93B19.06B
Stockholders Equity5.72B5.91B6.08B3.77B4.11B4.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.06B1.43B1.07B1.18B907.00M686.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.20B1.61B1.29B1.26B1.00B810.00M
Investing Cash Flow33.00M-1.03B1.31B-531.00M-732.00M457.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.27B-1.03B-2.59B-1.30B-316.00M-2.22B

Ferrovial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price55.70
Price Trends
50DMA
57.79
Negative
100DMA
57.75
Negative
200DMA
57.23
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.21
Negative
RSI
51.30
Neutral
STOCH
83.72
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:FER, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.13, below the 50-day MA of 57.79, and below the 200-day MA of 57.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ES:FER.

Ferrovial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
€40.02B17.7924.85%4.08%9.98%11.17%
61
Neutral
€40.75B59.7310.42%2.00%5.46%-81.98%
58
Neutral
€29.34B39.2519.75%3.14%10.46%14.97%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
55
Neutral
€5.37B32.025.31%4.21%6.93%-64.18%
54
Neutral
€13.04B16.1917.35%2.28%7.62%-56.65%
54
Neutral
€3.71B28.1813.38%2.71%3.64%41.50%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ES:FER
Ferrovial
57.10
12.84
29.01%
ES:ANA
Acciona
213.00
45.78
27.37%
ES:ACS
Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA
109.30
48.92
81.01%
ES:AENA
Aena SA
26.82
3.12
13.15%
ES:FCC
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas
11.14
0.82
7.99%
ES:SCYR
Sacyr SA
4.61
1.07
30.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 29, 2026