Donegal Group (DGICA) Risk Analysis

Our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual market their insurance products solely through a network of approximately 2,000 independent insurance agencies. This agency distribution system is one of the most important components of the competitive profile of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual. As a result, our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual depend to a material extent upon their independent agents, each of whom has the authority to bind one or more of our insurance subsidiaries or Donegal Mutual to insurance coverage. To the extent that such independent agents' marketing efforts fail to result in the maintenance of their current levels of volume and quality or they bind our insurance subsidiaries or Donegal Mutual to unacceptable insurance risks, fail to comply with the established underwriting guidelines of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual or otherwise inappropriately market the products of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual, the business, financial condition and results of operations of our insurance subsidiaries could suffer.

The ability of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual to retain existing, and to attract new, independent agents is essential to the continued growth of the business of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual. If independent agents find it easier to do business with the competitors of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual, our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual could find it difficult to retain their existing business or to attract new business. While our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual believe they maintain good relationships with the independent agents they have appointed, our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual cannot be certain that these independent agents will continue to sell the products of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual to the consumers these independent agents represent. Some of the factors that could adversely affect the ability of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual to retain existing, and attract new, independent agents include: - the significant competition among insurance companies to attract independent agents;- the labor-intensive and time-consuming process of selecting new independent agents;- the insistence of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual that independent agents adhere to certain standards;- the ability of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual to pay competitive and attractive commissions, bonuses and other incentives to independent agents; and - the ongoing consolidation of independent agencies, which may result in the acquisition of independent agencies from which our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual currently receive business by larger entities with which our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual do not have business relationships. While our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual sell insurance to policyholders solely through their network of independent agencies, many competitors of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual sell insurance through a variety of delivery methods, including independent agencies, captive agencies and direct sales. To the extent that current and potential policyholders change their distribution channel preference, the business, financial condition and results of operations of our insurance subsidiaries may be adversely affected. Competition within the property and casualty insurance industry may adversely impact the revenues and profit margins of our insurance subsidiaries. The property and casualty insurance industry is intensely competitive, and the pricing of insurance products is subject to significant fluctuations and uncertainties. Competition can be based on many factors, including:   - the perceived financial strength of the insurer;   - premium rates;   - policy terms and conditions;   - policyholder service;   - reputation; and   - experience. Our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual compete with many regional and national property and casualty insurance companies, including direct sellers of insurance products, insurers having their own agency organizations and other insurers represented by independent agents. Many of these insurers have greater capital than our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual, have substantially greater financial, technical and operating resources, have substantially greater exposure and access to potential customers and have equal or higher ratings from A.M. Best than our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual. In addition, our competitors may become increasingly better capitalized in the future as the property and casualty insurance industry continues to consolidate. The greater capitalization of many of the competitors of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual enables them to operate with lower profit margins and, therefore, allows them to market their products more aggressively, to take advantage more quickly of new marketing opportunities and to offer lower premium rates. In addition to established insurers, our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual compete with a growing number of start-ups, some of which have received substantial infusions of capital, that seek to disrupt traditional business platforms and distribution channels. Our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual may not be able to maintain their current competitive position in the markets in which they operate if their competitors offer prices for their products that are lower than the prices our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual are prepared to offer. Moreover, if these competitors lower the price of their products and our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual meet their pricing, the profit margins and revenues of our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual may decrease and their ratios of claims and expenses to premiums may increase. All of these factors could materially adversely affect the financial condition and results of operations of our insurance subsidiaries and their A.M. Best ratings. If A.M. Best downgrades the rating it has assigned to Donegal Mutual or any of our insurance subsidiaries, it would adversely affect their competitive position. Industry ratings are a factor in establishing and maintaining the competitive position of insurance companies. A.M. Best, an industry-accepted source of insurance company financial strength ratings, rates Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries. A.M. Best ratings provide an independent opinion of an insurance company's financial health and its ability to meet its obligations to its policyholders. We believe that the financial strength rating of A.M. Best is material to the operations of Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries. For example, certain lenders require customers to purchase insurance from an insurance carrier that has received an A.M. Best rating that exceeds a certain level. Currently, Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries each have an A (Excellent) rating from A.M. Best. In May 2025, A.M. Best affirmed its A (Excellent) ratings of Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries. However, if A.M. Best were to downgrade the rating of Donegal Mutual or any of our insurance subsidiaries, it would adversely affect the competitive position of Donegal Mutual or that insurance subsidiary and make it more difficult for it to market its products and retain its existing policyholders.

Loss severity in the property and casualty insurance industry has increased in recent years, principally driven by factors such as distracted driving, larger court judgments, higher jury awards and increasing medical and automobile and property repair costs, including increases due to inflation and supply chain disruption. In particular, future cost volatility for automobile replacement costs and repair parts could occur because of exposure to governmental trade policies, including tariffs, or geopolitical events. In addition, many classes of complainants have brought legal actions and proceedings, some of which may be funded by third-party litigation financing, that tend to increase the size of judgments. The propensity of policyholders and third-party claimants to utilize specialized plaintiff firms and litigate and the willingness of courts to expand causes of loss and the size of awards, to eliminate exclusions and to increase coverage limits may result in ultimate settlements of current and future losses that exceed the loss reserves of our insurance subsidiaries.

The underwriting results of our insurance subsidiaries are subject to weather and other conditions that may adversely affect our financial condition, liquidity or results of operations. Because the occurrence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable and may vary significantly from year to year and region to region, our historical results of operations may not be indicative of our future results of operations. Our property and casualty insurance operations expose us to claims arising from catastrophic events affecting multiple policyholders. Such catastrophic events consist of various natural disasters, including, but not limited to, hurricanes, tropical storms, tornadoes, windstorms, hailstorms, fires and wildfires, flooding, landslides, earthquakes, severe winter weather events and man-made disasters such as terrorist attacks, explosions and infrastructure failures. Historically, our insurance subsidiaries have experienced weather-related losses from hurricanes and tropical storms in Mid-Atlantic and Southern states, tornadoes and hailstorms in Mid-Atlantic, Midwestern and Southern states and severe winter weather events in Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern states. Losses from catastrophic events are a function of both the extent of our insurance subsidiaries' exposures, the frequency and severity of the events themselves and the level of reinsurance coverage our insurance subsidiaries purchase. The increased frequency and severity of weather-related catastrophes and other losses, such as from wildfires and flooding, incurred by the industry in recent years may be indicative of changing weather patterns due to climate change. Should those patterns continue to emerge, increased weather-related catastrophes in the states in which our insurance subsidiaries operate would lead to higher overall losses that they may be unable to offset through pricing actions. Our insurance subsidiaries seek to reduce their exposure to catastrophe losses through their underwriting strategies and their purchase of catastrophe reinsurance. Advancements in economic capital modeling and catastrophe risk modeling assist our insurance subsidiaries in measuring risk concentrations and inform their reinsurance purchase decisions. Nevertheless, reinsurance may prove inadequate under certain circumstances. While the emerging science regarding climate change and its connection to extreme weather events continues to be studied, climate change, to the extent it produces rising temperatures and changes in weather patterns, could affect the frequency and severity of weather events and other losses and thus impact the affordability and availability of catastrophe reinsurance coverage for our insurance subsidiaries. Our insurance subsidiaries' ability to appropriately manage catastrophe risk depends partially on catastrophe models, which may be affected by inaccurate or incomplete data, the uncertainty of the frequency and severity of future events and the uncertain impact of changing climate conditions that tend to occur gradually over time. Changing climate conditions could lead to new or revised regulations with which our insurance subsidiaries would have to comply. Such regulations could impact the ability of our insurance subsidiaries to manage their exposures in areas impacted by increased weather activity, require our insurance companies to alter the terms and conditions of their policies or impact the ability of our insurance subsidiaries to obtain sufficient pricing increases to offset higher loss activity.

One of the distinguishing features of the property and casualty insurance industry is that it prices its products before it knows its costs, since insurers generally establish their premium rates before they know the amount of losses they will incur. Accordingly, our insurance subsidiaries establish premium rates from forecasts of the ultimate costs they expect to arise from risks they have underwritten during the policy period. Proposed increases in premium rates are subject to regulatory approval on a state-by-state basis, and there is a lag between the time that our insurance subsidiaries file for such approval and the date upon which our insurance subsidiaries can implement any such approved premium rate increase across their book of business for a product in a particular state. The premium rates our insurance subsidiaries charge may not be sufficient to cover the ultimate losses they incur. Further, our insurance subsidiaries must establish reserves for losses and loss expenses as balance sheet liabilities based upon estimates involving actuarial and statistical projections at a given time of what our insurance subsidiaries expect their ultimate liability to be. Significant periods of time often elapse between the occurrence of an insured loss, the reporting of the loss and the settlement of that loss. It is possible that our insurance subsidiaries' ultimate liability could exceed these estimates because of the future development of known losses, the existence of losses that have occurred but are currently unreported and larger than historical settlements of pending and unreported claims. The process of estimating reserves is inherently judgmental and can be influenced by a number of factors, including the following: - trends in claim frequency and severity;- changes in operations;- emerging economic and social trends;- economic and social inflation;- the level of insurance fraud; and - changes in the regulatory and litigation environments. If our insurance subsidiaries determine that their reserves are insufficient to cover their ultimate liability, they will increase their reserves. An increase in reserves results in an increase in losses and a reduction in net income for the period in which our insurance subsidiaries recognize a deficiency in reserves. Accordingly, an increase in reserves may adversely impact the business, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations of our insurance subsidiaries.

The financial condition, cash flows and results of operations of our insurance subsidiaries depend on their ability to underwrite and set rates accurately for a full spectrum of risks across a number of lines of insurance. Rate adequacy is necessary to generate sufficient premium to pay losses, loss adjustment expenses and underwriting expenses and to realize a profit. The ability to underwrite and set rates effectively is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those related to: - the availability of sufficient, reliable data;- the ability to conduct a complete and accurate analysis of available data;- the ability to recognize in a timely manner changes in trends and to project both the severity and frequency of losses with reasonable accuracy;- uncertainties generally inherent in estimates and assumptions;- the ability to project changes in certain operating expense levels with reasonable certainty;- the development, selection and application of appropriate rating formulae or other pricing methodologies;- the effective development, governance and appropriate use of modeling tools to assist with correctly and consistently achieving the intended results in underwriting and pricing;- the ability to innovate with new pricing strategies and the success of those innovations upon implementation;- the ability to secure regulatory approval of premium rates on an adequate and timely basis;- the ability to predict policyholder retention accurately;- unanticipated court decisions, legislation or regulatory action;- unanticipated changes in our claim settlement practices;- changes in driving patterns for auto exposures;- changes in weather patterns for property exposures;- changes in the medical sector of the economy that impact bodily injury loss costs;- changes in new and used car prices, auto repair costs and auto parts prices, including the increasing integration of sophisticated technology-related components;- the impact of emerging technologies, including driver assistance technologies and autonomous vehicles, on pricing, insurance coverages and loss costs;- the impact of inflation and other factors on the cost and availability of construction materials and labor;- the impact of medical advances on the cost and duration of bodily injury claims;- the ability to monitor property concentration in catastrophe-prone areas, such as hurricane, earthquake, wildfire and wind/hail regions; and - the general state of the economy in the states in which our insurance subsidiaries operate. Such risks may result in our insurance subsidiaries basing their premium rates on inadequate or inaccurate data or inappropriate assumptions or methodologies and may cause our estimates of future changes in the frequency or severity of claims to be incorrect. As a result, our insurance subsidiaries could underprice risks, which would negatively affect our margins, or our insurance subsidiaries could overprice risks, which could reduce their premium volume and competitiveness. In either event, underpricing or overpricing risks could adversely impact our operating results, financial condition and cash flows.

Our insurance subsidiaries are subject to assessments pursuant to the guaranty fund laws of the various states in which they conduct business. Generally, under these laws, our insurance subsidiaries can be assessed, depending upon the market share of our insurance subsidiaries in a given line of insurance business, to assist in the payment of unpaid claims and related costs of insolvent insurance companies in those states. We cannot predict the number and magnitude of future insurance company failures in the states in which our insurance subsidiaries conduct business, but future assessments could adversely affect the business, financial condition and results of operations of our insurance subsidiaries.

Our insurance subsidiaries consider a variety of rating attributes in making risk selection and pricing decisions for personal lines insurance products where allowed by state law. There is increasing regulatory debate as to whether use of certain rating attributes is unfairly discriminatory. For example, consumer groups and regulators often call for the prohibition or restriction on the use of credit scoring in underwriting and pricing. In addition, there is increasing regulatory attention on the governance over and use of analytical models and technologies, including artificial intelligence systems, to ensure that such technologies comply with laws that address unfair trade practices and unfair discrimination. Laws or regulations that significantly curtail the use of specific rating attributes or other analytical models and technologies in the underwriting process could reduce the future profitability of our insurance subsidiaries.

As a holding company, we rely on dividends from our insurance subsidiaries as a significant source of funds to meet our corporate obligations and to pay dividends to our stockholders. The amount of dividends our insurance subsidiaries can pay to us is subject to regulatory restrictions and depends on the amount of surplus our insurance subsidiaries maintain. From time to time, the NAIC and various state insurance regulators consider modifying the method of determining the amount of dividends that an insurance company may pay without prior regulatory approval. The maximum amount of ordinary dividends that our insurance subsidiaries can pay to us in 2026 without prior regulatory approval is approximately $66.4 million. Other business and regulatory considerations, such as the impact of dividends on surplus that could affect the ratings of our insurance subsidiaries, competitive conditions, RBC requirements, the investment results of our insurance subsidiaries and the amount of premiums that our insurance subsidiaries write could also adversely impact the ability of our insurance subsidiaries to pay dividends to us.

Our insurance subsidiaries utilize Donegal Mutual's information technology systems to conduct their insurance business, including policy quoting and issuance, claims processing, processing of incoming premium payments and other important functions. As a result, the ability of our insurance subsidiaries to grow their business and conduct profitable operations depends on Donegal Mutual's ability to maintain its existing information technology systems and to develop new technology systems that will support the business of Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries in a cost-efficient manner and provide information technology capabilities equivalent to those of our competitors. The allocation among our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual of the costs of developing and maintaining Donegal Mutual's information technology systems may adversely impact our insurance subsidiaries' expense ratio and underwriting profitability, and such costs may exceed Donegal Mutual's and our expectations. Donegal Mutual is currently in the midst of a multi-year effort to modernize certain of its key infrastructure and applications systems, and the allocation of related costs to our insurance subsidiaries has resulted in an increase to their expense ratio. These new systems are intended to provide various benefits to the member companies of the Donegal Insurance Group, including streamlined workflows and business processes, service enhancements for their agents and policyholders, opportunities to implement new product models and innovative business solutions, greater utilization of data analytics and operational efficiencies. From 2020 to 2024, we implemented five major releases of new systems. In 2025, Donegal Mutual implemented the final two major releases of new systems for the remaining lines of business the Donegal Insurance Group issues currently and for the conversion of remaining legacy renewal policies of the Donegal Insurance Group. The conversion process will continue into 2027 as legacy policies renew on a state-by-state rollout schedule. During 2025, Donegal Mutual also began planning for the migration of its claims, billing and policy administration application systems from on-premise versions to cloud-based versions of these applications that we expect will occur in a phased approach over the next two years. Even with Donegal Mutual's and our best planning and efforts and the involvement of third-party experts, Donegal Mutual may not complete the implementation of these new systems within its planned timeframes or budget. Further, Donegal Mutual's information technology systems may not deliver the benefits Donegal Mutual and we expect and may fail to keep pace with our competitors' information technology systems. As a result, Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries may not have the ability to grow their business and meet their profitability objectives.