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verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie AG (DE:VBK)
XETRA:VBK
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verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie
(XETRA:VBK)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
€36.00
▲(4.35% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is held back primarily by weak current financial performance (losses and negative free cash flow). Offsetting this, technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, and the earnings call pointed to a meaningful operational recovery (higher EBITDA, improved cash generation, guidance at the upper end), though valuation remains constrained by losses and ongoing regulatory/investment-phase risks.
Positive Factors
Recovering EBITDA and margins
Consistent EBITDA improvement (Q2 EBITDA €30.1m; +44.7% YoY) reflects operational recovery and higher plant utilization. Sustained EBITDA growth strengthens internal cash generation, improves credit metrics, and provides runway to fund strategic investments and reduce reliance on external financing over coming quarters.
Strategic diversification into renewable chemicals
The ethanolysis project and other specialty-chemical investments expand Verbio beyond transport fuels into higher‑value renewable chemicals. This diversifies revenue sources, can lift mix margins versus commodity fuels, and reduces exposure to fuel-blend cycles, supporting more stable long‑term profitability once ramped.
Manageable leverage and strong equity ratio
A reported equity ratio near 58% and modest debt/equity (~0.40x) provide financial headroom during the investment phase. This capital structure supports ongoing CapEx, cushions earnings volatility from commodity swings, and increases capacity to absorb temporary cash‑flow deficits while new projects scale.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow and loss-making TTM
TTM negative free cash flow (~-€70m) coupled with a loss-making profile (net margin ~-7.2%) signals structural cash‑generation weakness. Persistent negative FCF reduces financial flexibility, may necessitate external funding, and delays the ability to self‑fund growth or return capital until margins sustainably recover.
Elevated CapEx and higher net debt during build-out
Significant capex requirements to commission new plants and specialty units are pressuring cash flow and raised net debt to €173m. Continued heavy investment during commercialization increases refinancing and execution risk, and compresses near‑term free cash flow until projects reach steady‑state earnings.
Regulatory uncertainty on supportive measures
Key regulatory changes that underpin greenhouse‑gas premiums remain unfinalized, leaving timing and scope risk. Until legislation is settled, anticipated premium improvements and parity versus HVO are uncertain, which could delay durable margin recovery and affect long‑term demand dynamics for renewable fuels.
verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie (VBK) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€2.20B
Dividend Yield1.02%
Average Volume (3M)165.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)106.0
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth8.65%
EPS Growth-379.83%
CountryDE
Employees1,521
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding63,715,480
10 Day Avg. Volume196,028
30 Day Avg. Volume165,844
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.49
P/FCF Ratio-6.59
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€27.20Price Target Upside-21.16% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)€1.81B
verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG produces and supplies biofuels in Germany and rest of Europe. The company's products include biodiesel, bioethanol, biomethane, biosterol, bioglycerin, and liquid fertilizers. The company offers its products to oil corporations, oil traders, independent filling stations, haulage companies, public utilities, and vehicle fleets. VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Leipzig, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyVerbio primarily makes money by selling renewable fuels and related co-products produced at its plants. The core revenue stream is the sale of biofuels—most prominently biodiesel (from vegetable oils/fats) and bioethanol (typically from grain-based feedstocks)—to fuel blenders, wholesalers, and other downstream customers that distribute fuels into road transport markets. A second major stream is the sale of biogas/biomethane produced from fermentation residues and other biomass; this can be marketed either as renewable gas for energy use and/or as a transport fuel depending on the target market and applicable frameworks. In addition, Verbio generates revenue from co-products created during fuel production (for example, protein-rich components from ethanol production such as animal feed products, and glycerine from biodiesel production) which are sold into industrial and agricultural end markets. Earnings are influenced by commodity spread dynamics (the margin between feedstock costs and realized selling prices for fuels and co-products) and by regulatory demand drivers for renewable energy in transport (e.g., blending mandates, greenhouse-gas reduction requirements, and sustainability certification rules), which can affect volumes, achievable prices, and the value of compliant renewable fuel supply. Specific named partnerships or contract terms are not publicly confirmable from this prompt; therefore, partnership details are null.
verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial momentum: strong EBITDA growth (QoQ and YoY), record European biodiesel production, higher ethanol/biomethane volumes, positive free cash flow in Q2, upgraded guidance to the upper end of the prior range, and constructive regulatory developments that should improve greenhouse-gas premium dynamics. Offsetting risks include seasonal/region-specific production curtailments (Canada), elevated CapEx and net debt during the investment phase, material-cost inflation, lingering regulatory uncertainty until legislation is finalized, and continued market volatility driven by weather and legacy fraud effects. Overall, the positives (clear earnings recovery, record volumes in Europe, strategic diversification and supportive regulatory trends) outweigh the negatives, though management remains cautious given remaining uncertainties.Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Group EBITDA Growth
Group EBITDA increased to EUR 30.1 million in Q2 (from EUR 20.8m in Q2 last year and EUR 15.4m in the previous quarter), representing approximately +44.7% year-over-year and +95.5% quarter-over-quarter growth.
Record European Biodiesel Production and Operational Stability
Europe reached a record biodiesel production level in H1 '25/'26 and the company emphasized strong operational stability across its plants.
Bioethanol and Biomethane Volume Increases
Bioethanol production rose to 307,000 tonnes and biomethane to 672 GWh year-over-year; bioethanol utilization stood at 76.6% and biomethane utilization at 67.9%.
Bioethanol/Biomethane Segment Turnaround
Bioethanol/biomethane segment reported positive segment EBITDA in Q2 for the first time in five quarters (segment EBITDA highlighted at EUR 5.8m in the call) and drove a material part of the group EBITDA improvement.
Revenue Record in Bioethanol/Biomethane Segment
Bioethanol/biomethane revenues reached a new quarterly record of EUR 228 million, supported by recovery in greenhouse gas quota market and higher European selling prices.
Improved Cash Generation and Positive Free Cash Flow in Q2
Operating cash flow totaled EUR 35.6 million year-to-date with an operating cash swing of EUR 21.7 million; company delivered positive free cash flow in Q2 and reduced net debt from its Q1 peak.
Guidance Upgraded to Upper End of Prior Range
Based on the strong first half, management now expects full-year EBITDA at the upper end of its prior guidance (previously communicated as high double-digit million euros).
Strategic Investments and New Product Launch
CapEx focused on specialty chemical units (Bitterfeld) and the South Bend plant; ethanolysis (renewable chemicals) plant construction in Bitterfeld is on track with first renewable molecules expected in H2 2026, representing a strategic diversification beyond transport fuels.
Regulatory Developments Improve Long-Term Economics
Expected removal of double counting and RED III transposition materially improves pricing for greenhouse gas savings (management cited CO2 price moving from ~EUR 200/ton to ~EUR 400/ton), effectively increasing the greenhouse-gas-related premium per tonne of biodiesel from ~EUR 456 to ~EUR 912 and returning to a more level playing field versus HVO.
Favourable North American Policy Tailwinds
U.S. regulatory developments (year‑round E15 momentum and draft 45C production tax-credit guidance) could materially support ethanol demand and pricing; guidance suggests potential production tax credits of up to $1/gal, which can lower U.S. ethanol prices and boost exports.
Solid Balance Sheet Metric
Equity ratio remained at a comfortable 58.2%, supporting financial stability despite strategic investments.
Negative Updates
H1 Biodiesel Output Slightly Below Prior Year
Biodiesel output in the first half was 311,000 tonnes, slightly below the same period last year, driven largely by planned winter production curtailment in Canada and North American regulatory uncertainty.
Quarterly Revenue Decline
Group revenue decreased quarter-over-quarter from EUR 244.1 million to EUR 223.8 million in Q2 (a decline of EUR 20.3 million, approximately -8.3% QoQ), reflecting lower biodiesel volumes in the quarter.
Canadian Production Shutdown and Seasonal Volatility
Canada production was deliberately scaled back/winter-shut as planned due to protective measures and seasonality; management noted seasonal cash-flow profile shifts and production uncertainty tied to North American regulatory clarity.
Net Debt Increase and Significant CapEx
CapEx amounted to EUR 47.8 million in the period and net debt increased to EUR 173 million (despite a reduction from the Q1 peak), reflecting continued strategic investments and temporarily higher leverage.
Material Costs Elevated
Material costs were well above the level of the same period last year, increasing input cost pressure (though revenue growth outpaced materials increases and gross margin improved).
Regulatory Uncertainty and Market Fraud Legacy
Previous market fraud caused greenhouse-gas quota price collapses and has left lingering uncertainty; legislation (ending double counting) is progressing but not fully finalized (Bundesrat debate scheduled, retroactive entry expected), meaning some regulatory risk remains until fully implemented.
Price and Market Volatility / Weather Impact
Significant short-term volatility: ethanol and quota prices moved sharply in late 2025 and early 2026; extreme weather and gas-price spikes (e.g., Nevada stoppage in January due to record natural gas prices and storms) temporarily disrupted operations and volumes.
Company Guidance
Verbio said it now expects full‑year EBITDA to come in at the upper end of its prior guidance—previously described as a “high double‑digit euro million” range—while forecasting a moderate increase in free cash flow and a year‑on‑year reduction in net financial debt; in H1 the company reported an operating‑cash swing of EUR 21.7m to operating cash flow of EUR 35.6m, CapEx of EUR 47.8m, net debt of EUR 173m (down from a Q1 peak), an equity ratio of 58.2% and positive free cash flow in Q2, and Q2 group EBITDA was EUR 30.1m (vs. EUR 20.8m YoY and EUR 15.4m in Q1); management stressed CapEx remains tightly controlled, the ethanolysis plant in Bitterfeld is on track to produce first renewable molecules in H2‑2026, and noted they have taken a cautious stance on guidance until regulatory clarity (with any potential upward revision unlikely before end‑Q3).verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are pressured: the income statement shows losses and sharply weaker margins (compressed gross margin and negative EBIT/net margin), and free cash flow is meaningfully negative despite positive operating cash flow. The balance sheet is a relative support with manageable leverage (~0.40x debt/equity), but profitability deterioration and negative FCF reduce flexibility.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability is weak: revenue grew modestly (+3.7%), but margins are compressed (gross margin ~6.5%) and the company is loss-making (negative EBIT and net margin ~-7.2%). This follows a sharp deterioration from strong profitability in 2021–2023 and a steep margin decline versus 2024, signaling higher costs and/or weaker pricing power. The main positive is that revenue has stabilized recently, but earnings quality and operating leverage are currently poor.28
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable with debt at ~0.40x equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), but the balance sheet has weakened versus prior years as debt increased and equity trended down from its 2024 level. Returns on equity are negative in the most recent periods, reflecting losses rather than an over-levered capital structure. Overall, the company has a reasonable capital base, but deteriorating profitability is pressuring balance sheet strength.56
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is mixed: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive (~€43m), but free cash flow is meaningfully negative (~-€70m) and has worsened, implying elevated capital spending and/or working-capital drag. While operating cash flow improved from the last annual period, the business is not currently self-funding on a free-cash basis, which reduces financial flexibility until profitability and investment intensity normalize.34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.72B | 1.58B | 1.67B | 1.97B | 1.81B | 1.03B |
| Gross Profit | 120.25M | 37.12M | 292.45M | 381.91M | 626.92M | 271.64M |
| EBITDA | 47.23M | -54.41M | 122.92M | 242.68M | 494.81M | 166.48M |
| Net Income | -112.18M | -138.01M | 19.96M | 132.02M | 315.63M | 93.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.28B | 1.28B | 1.38B | 1.30B | 1.13B | 678.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 78.29M | 64.41M | 126.70M | 170.31M | 300.50M | 105.34M |
| Total Debt | 287.19M | 268.86M | 194.20M | 189.97M | 49.39M | 46.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 533.28M | 536.78M | 449.54M | 385.36M | 310.16M | 168.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 742.75M | 746.29M | 925.67M | 909.47M | 816.23M | 507.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.09M | -117.96M | -54.38M | -177.12M | 210.15M | 49.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 43.31M | 13.88M | 116.78M | 26.09M | 325.03M | 117.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -109.07M | -120.06M | -144.90M | -266.43M | -113.62M | -46.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 51.03M | 49.88M | -19.53M | 112.21M | -18.48M | -18.76M |
verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Technical Analysis
Positive
34.50
Price Trends
25.64
Positive
21.62
Positive
16.48
Positive
Market Momentum
2.28
Negative
76.32
Negative
87.96
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.60, above the 50-day MA of 25.64, and above the 200-day MA of 16.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.32 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:VBK.
verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | €1.72B | 24.68 | 27.29% | 1.24% | 1.03% | 25.48% | |
62 Neutral | €6.69B | 23.49 | 1.08% | 8.92% | -5.92% | -58.33% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
57 Neutral | €2.20B | 106.00 | -14.66% | 1.02% | 8.65% | -379.83% | |
52 Neutral | €3.94B | -4.31 | ― | 3.75% | -10.63% | -23.15% | |
46 Neutral | €1.14B | -5.92 | -5.77% | 0.59% | -6.82% | 71.94% | |
45 Neutral | €12.42B | -17.78 | -10.04% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
DE:VBK
verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie
34.50
24.43
242.60%
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59.82
1.62
2.78%
DE:EVK
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14.36
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-29.98%
DE:LXS
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13.23
-18.05
-57.70%
DE:WCH
Wacker Chemie AG
79.30
-0.93
-1.16%
DE:ACT
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169.40
67.35
65.99%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.