verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie (VBK) AI Stock Analysis

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verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie

(XETRA:VBK)

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:

€13.50

▲(2.43%Upside)

The most significant factor affecting the stock score is the financial performance, which is challenged by declining revenue and profitability. Technical analysis highlights strong momentum, yet overbought conditions suggest caution. Valuation is a concern due to a high P/E ratio. The earnings call indicates mixed outlooks with both strategic opportunities and notable risks.

Positive Factors

Management Optimism

Management remains optimistic of a GHG certificate price recovery in the course of 2025, following the implementation of a ban on the carry forward of surplus GHG quota into 2025 and 2026.

Profitability

Profitability is expected to recover by a couple of points, particularly as the US ramps up.

Technical Issues Resolution

The delays faced in Nevada due to technical issues have now been sorted - expect ramp up over the summer.

Negative Factors

EBITDA Guidance

Verbio now expects its FY24/25 EBITDA guidance to be at the lower end of the 'mid double-digit million range'.

Free Cash Flow

Elevated capex should limit free cash flow generation.

GHG Certificate Prices

The challenging environment for biofuels continued, primarily due to still depressed GHG certificate prices.

verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie (VBK) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap

€821.29M

Dividend Yield1.55%

Average Volume (3M)145.56K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.18

Revenue Growth-15.79%

EPS Growth-266.57%

CountryDE

Employees1,521

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength56

IndustryChemicals - Specialty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.22

Shares Outstanding63,715,480

10 Day Avg. Volume195,065

30 Day Avg. Volume145,559

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.30

Price to Book (P/B)2.57

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-13.20

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

€12.65

Price Target Upside-4.02% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG produces and supplies biofuels in Germany and rest of Europe. The company's products include biodiesel, bioethanol, biomethane, biosterol, bioglycerin, and liquid fertilizers. The company offers its products to oil corporations, oil traders, independent filling stations, haulage companies, public utilities, and vehicle fleets. VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Leipzig, Germany.

How the Company Makes MoneyVerbio makes money primarily through the sale of its biofuel products, including biodiesel, bioethanol, and biomethane. These products are sold to both domestic and international markets, catering to the transportation sector's demand for renewable energy sources. The company also generates revenue from the sale of agricultural by-products, such as animal feed, produced during the biofuel manufacturing process. Verbio benefits from government subsidies and incentives for renewable energy, which support their operations and profitability. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its market reach and technological capabilities.

verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: 25.52%|

Next Earnings Date:Sep 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call revealed mixed results with record production volumes and improved EBITDA in Q3, but significant challenges remain due to declining biodiesel production, a substantial drop in annual EBITDA, and increased net debt. Positive developments in ethanol margins and strategic partnerships indicate potential future growth.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Production Volumes

Ethanol and renewable natural gas (Biomethane) reported record production volumes, driven by efficiency gains in Europe and better utilization at plants in Nevada and India.

Improved EBITDA in Q3

Q3 EBITDA improved year-over-year to €8.2 million from €7.3 million, driven by developments in the biodiesel segment and trading activities.

Positive Outlook for Ethanol Margins

Ethanol margins are showing improvement supported by stronger fundamentals for corn oil, reduced ethanol stock levels, and higher blending demand.

Increase in Greenhouse Gas Quota Prices

A slight rise in greenhouse gas quota prices was observed, with expectations for further recovery as regulatory scrutiny increases.

Strategic Partnerships and Investments

Active measures to strengthen long-term competitiveness through strategic investment choices and cost measures, including partnerships with Gail in India.

Negative Updates

Decline in Biodiesel Production

Biodiesel production declined due to commercial factors in Canada and regulatory changes in the U.S., which impacted the market environment.

Significant EBITDA Decline

EBITDA declined to €22 million from €82 million in the previous year, primarily due to a weak first quarter and challenging market conditions.

Challenges in Biomethane Segment

Decrease in revenue and EBITDA in the Biomethane segment, impacted by challenging market conditions and startup costs of growth projects.

Increased Net Debt

Net debt increased to €154 million, with expectations to reach a maximum of €190 million by the end of the financial year.

Delayed Full Utilization in Nevada

The Nevada plant ramp-up is delayed, with full utilization now expected in the next financial year due to technical issues and lack of experience.

Company Guidance

During the earnings call for Verbio's third quarter of the fiscal year 2024-2025, the company provided guidance indicating a cautious outlook amidst challenging market conditions. The guidance for the fiscal year remains unchanged at the mid double-digit million-euro range, with expectations to come in at the lower end of the EBITDA guidance due to the weak margin environment. The company highlighted a decline in EBITDA to €22 million from €82 million year-over-year, primarily due to a weak first quarter. Capital expenditure was reduced to €30 million in Q3, with a total of €91.5 million for the first nine months, compared to €130 million the previous year. The net debt was at €154 million, with a maximum expected to reach €190 million by the end of the fiscal year. The equity ratio stood at around 63%. For the third quarter, EBITDA improved year-over-year to €8.2 million from €7.3 million. The company anticipates a slight recovery in spreads, with free cash flow expected to be breakeven or positive during the fourth quarter. The guidance emphasized the importance of strategic investments and cost measures to enhance long-term competitiveness.

verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Verbio's financial performance is moderate with challenges in revenue and profitability margins. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but declining cash flow poses risks if negative trends persist.

Income Statement

Positive

The company has experienced fluctuations in its revenue, with a decline in the most recent TTM data compared to previous years. Gross profit margin has decreased over time, indicating cost pressures or reduced pricing power. The net profit margin has turned negative in the TTM, reflecting a challenging period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also declining, highlighting reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet remains strong with a high equity ratio and manageable debt levels. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly but remains low, indicating prudent financial management. Return on equity has been positive but shows a declining trend, aligning with the recent profitability pressures.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow from operations has been volatile, with a recent decline in free cash flow due to increased capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, particularly with negative free cash flow in the TTM. Operating cash flow remains positive, which is a positive sign amid profitability challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50B	1.66B	1.97B	1.81B	1.03B	872.40M
Gross Profit	227.06M	324.53M	381.91M	610.89M	257.74M	184.37M
EBITDA	62.58M	122.92M	242.48M	494.81M	166.48M	122.82M
Net Income	-29.14M	19.96M	132.02M	315.63M	93.20M	63.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.40B	1.38B	1.30B	1.13B	678.62M	529.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	106.85M	123.19M	183.75M	300.50M	105.62M	74.22M
Total Debt	228.76M	194.20M	189.97M	49.39M	46.48M	48.24M
Total Liabilities	494.06M	449.54M	385.36M	310.16M	168.75M	138.38M
Stockholders Equity	901.23M	925.67M	909.47M	816.23M	507.85M	389.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-69.04M	-54.38M	-177.12M	210.15M	49.90M	3.58M
Operating Cash Flow	69.57M	116.78M	26.09M	325.03M	117.18M	71.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-100.78M	-144.90M	-266.43M	-113.62M	-46.56M	-87.68M
Financing Cash Flow	6.71M	-19.53M	112.21M	-18.48M	-18.76M	2.23M

verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price13.18

Price Trends

50DMA

10.28

Positive

100DMA

9.72

Positive

200DMA

11.16

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.79

Negative

RSI

74.55

Negative

STOCH

91.50

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.04, above the 50-day MA of 10.28, and above the 200-day MA of 11.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.55 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:VBK.

verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VBK	63 Neutral	€821.29M	―	-3.60%	1.55%	-15.79%	-266.57%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.91B	-0.93	-3.26%	6.13%	2.20%	-43.43%
0RBE		€11.21B	―	-6.00%	―	―	―
0QDS		€8.04B	26.79	3.25%	5.88%	―	―
LNXSF		$2.56B	―	-3.92%	0.39%	―	―
WKCMF		$3.64B	13.93	5.37%	3.64%	―	―
ACT	75 Outperform	€1.40B	25.96	29.46%	1.12%	2.51%	56.13%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:VBK

verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie

13.18

-4.64

-26.02%

GB:0RBE

Covestro

60.58

5.66

10.31%

GB:0QDS

Evonik

17.33

-1.01

-5.51%

LNXSF

LANXESS

30.38

4.38

16.85%

WKCMF

Wacker Chemie AG

77.46

-32.47

-29.54%

DE:ACT

AlzChem Group AG

135.80

89.46

193.05%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025