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Compass (COMP)
NYSE:COMP

Compass (COMP) AI Stock Analysis

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COMP

Compass

(NYSE:COMP)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(2.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial resilience—meaningfully positive and growing operating/free cash flow and sharply rebounding revenue—offset by continued GAAP losses. Technicals are weak (bearish momentum and price below key moving averages), and valuation support is limited due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield. Earnings call messaging was broadly positive on execution and guidance, while merger-related financing/integration and legal costs add risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Compass transformed cash generation into a structural strength in 2025, producing positive operating (~$217M) and free cash flow (~$203M). This durable cash profile supports working capital, funds integration and tech investment, reduces refinancing pressure and enhances strategic optionality while GAAP profits normalize.
Revenue and transaction rebound
A sharp revenue rebound and strong transaction growth (Q4 transactions +19.7% YoY; full-year $7.0B) indicate durable market-share gains and platform scale. Sustained outperformance versus the U.S. market supports higher ancillary attach rates and long-term revenue durability as scale drives operating leverage.
Agent recruitment, retention & AI
Record organic agent adds with ~97% retention and rolling AI productivity tools create durable network effects. A growing, sticky agent base increases transaction throughput and ancillary revenue potential, while AI-driven productivity can lower per-transaction costs and raise long-term margins.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP losses
Despite cash and revenue gains, persistent GAAP losses and negative net margins limit return on equity and the company’s ability to self-fund growth from earnings. Continued reliance on non-GAAP metrics and capital markets increases execution risk until margins convert to sustainable GAAP profitability.
Merger financing & integration risk
The Anywhere acquisition and $1.0B convertible issuance materially change scale but raise integration, execution and dilution risk. Delivering the >$300M synergy target requires cross-brand integration and cost discipline; financing complexity and capped calls add capital-structure and execution sensitivity over months.
Legal/regulatory friction
Loss of an injunction vs. Zillow and ongoing litigation highlight regulatory and legal headwinds that can increase operating costs and limit control over listing distribution. Sustained legal expense and uncertainty can erode margin gains and handicap strategic initiatives tied to listing exposure.

Compass (COMP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Compass Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCompass, Inc. provides real estate brokerage services in the United States. It operates a cloud-based platform that provides an integrated suite of software for customer relationship management, marketing, client service, operations, and other functionality, as well as brokerage and adjacent services in the real estate industry. The company offers mobile apps that allow agents to manage their business anywhere as well as designs consumer-grade interfaces, an automated workflows for agent-client interactions. The company was formerly known as Urban Compass, Inc. and changed its name to Compass, Inc. in January 2021.Compass, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyCompass generates revenue primarily through commissions earned on real estate transactions facilitated by its agents. Typically, the company takes a percentage of the commission paid by sellers to agents, which can vary based on the market and specific agreements. Additionally, Compass provides premium tools and services to its agents, which may include marketing support, technology platforms, and training resources, for which agents may pay fees or commission splits. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with various tech firms and real estate platforms to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing further to its revenue streams.

Compass Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Transactions
Total Transactions
Represents overall deal flow handled by Compass in a given period. Strong or improving transaction volumes point to healthy demand and platform adoption, while drops often precede lower revenues and can reflect market seasonality, pricing pressure, or competitive losses.
Chart InsightsAfter a multi-quarter trough in 2022–23, transactions accelerated through 2024 into record volumes in 2025, following a consistent seasonal Q2/Q3 peak pattern. Management’s strong agent recruiting, Christie's integration and rollout of AI tools explain visible market‑share gains and should sustain organic transaction growth and revenue upside. The main caveat: rising non‑GAAP OpEx and ongoing legal costs could weigh on margins short term, with improved Anywhere/Christie synergies and cost discipline the critical offsets to watch.
Data provided by:The Fly

Compass Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted record-breaking financial performance, strong agent recruitment, and successful integration of acquisitions. The company is making significant strides in AI to enhance agent productivity. However, there are concerns with increasing operating expenses and ongoing legal costs.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Q3 Revenue and Growth
Compass delivered record third quarter market share, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow. Q3 revenue increased by 23.6% year-over-year, with organic revenue up 11%.
Strong Agent Recruitment and Retention
Compass achieved the best organic principal agent recruiting quarter in company history, adding 851 principal agents, with a retention rate of 97.3%.
Successful Integration and Synergies from Christie's Acquisition
The Christie's International Real Estate business outperformed expectations with a 1,000 basis point lift in attach rate and improved mortgage JV profitability.
AI Initiatives and Agent Productivity
Compass AI 2.0 testing showed promise in enhancing agent productivity and is expected to launch to all agents before the next earnings call.
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated $73.6 million in free cash flow in Q3, a record level for any third quarter period.
Negative Updates
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses Increase
Non-GAAP OpEx increased to $252 million in Q3, driven by M&A and higher organic OpEx by about 3.5%.
Legal Expenses and Pending Litigation
Ongoing legal expenses related to various litigation matters were included in the non-GAAP SG&A.
Company Guidance
During the Compass, Inc. 2025 Q3 earnings call, the company provided guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting expectations for financial results, operating expenses, and free cash flow. Compass anticipates Q4 revenue between $1.59 billion to $1.69 billion and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $35 million to $49 million. The company reduced its full-year OpEx guidance to $1 billion to $1.005 billion, reflecting disciplined cost management. They reported record Q3 results, including a 23.6% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.85 billion, a 22% rise in total transactions, and an adjusted EBITDA of $93.6 million, up 80% from the previous year. Looking ahead, Compass expects to organically add 800 principal agents in Q4 and maintains a long-term range of 700-800 gross agent additions. Additionally, they announced an increase in the Anywhere transaction synergy target to more than $300 million in net cost synergies, with $150 million expected in the first year post-close.

Compass Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong improvement in cash generation (2025 operating cash flow ~$217M; free cash flow ~$203M) and sharply rebounding growth (2025 revenue up ~73% vs. 2024) support a higher score. This is tempered by still-negative profitability (ongoing net losses and negative operating profitability), which remains the main financial overhang despite margin improvement.
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Revenue accelerated sharply in 2025 (up ~73% vs. 2024) after a down 2022–2023 period, signaling improving demand and scale. However, profitability remains weak: net losses persist each year (2025 net margin about -2%), and operating profitability is still negative despite meaningful improvement from 2022–2023 levels. Gross margin is relatively steady in the mid-to-high teens, but not yet translating into consistent bottom-line profitability.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Leverage has improved materially, with debt-to-equity declining from roughly ~1.2–1.5 (2022–2024) to ~0.58 in 2025, alongside a sizable rebound in equity (to ~$782M in 2025). Total debt is moderate (~$454M) relative to the equity base, which reduces balance-sheet risk versus prior years. The key weakness is continued losses driving negative returns on equity in most years, indicating the capital base is not yet producing sustainable earnings power.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Cash generation has turned into a clear strength: operating cash flow is positive and improving (about $217M in 2025 vs. $122M in 2024), and free cash flow is solidly positive (about $203M in 2025) with continued growth. The company is producing cash despite reporting net losses, which supports liquidity and operational flexibility. The main concern is that cash flow strength has not yet been matched by consistent profitability, and prior years (2021–2023) showed weaker or negative operating and free cash flow.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.96B5.63B4.88B6.02B6.42B
Gross Profit1.88B994.50M878.00M1.08B1.11B
EBITDA46.30M-65.60M-216.40M-500.30M-428.50M
Net Income-58.50M-154.40M-321.30M-601.50M-494.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.54B1.18B1.16B1.53B1.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments199.00M223.80M166.90M361.90M618.30M
Total Debt453.50M497.60M533.90M763.00M580.70M
Total Liabilities752.20M765.60M728.30M1.01B953.00M
Stockholders Equity782.00M409.40M428.70M517.10M843.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow203.30M105.80M-37.10M-362.40M-78.70M
Operating Cash Flow216.70M121.50M-25.90M-292.30M-28.60M
Investing Cash Flow-191.30M-36.60M-11.70M-100.10M-192.50M
Financing Cash Flow-50.20M-28.00M-157.40M136.00M399.30M

Compass Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price9.75
Price Trends
50DMA
11.48
Negative
100DMA
10.18
Negative
200DMA
8.81
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.65
Positive
RSI
37.40
Neutral
STOCH
42.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COMP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.99, below the 50-day MA of 11.48, and above the 200-day MA of 8.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COMP.

Compass Risk Analysis

Compass disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Compass reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
We have integrated, and may continue to integrate in the future, machine learning and AI in certain tools and features available on our platform. Machine learning and AI technology present various operational, compliance and reputational risks and if any such risks were to materialize, our business and results of operations may be adversely affected. Q3, 2023
2.
Ongoing antitrust regulatory and/or private plaintiff litigation activities, including the Antitrust Lawsuits, could result in meaningful industry-wide changes and could have a direct or indirect materially adverse affect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Q3, 2023

Compass Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$6.45B43.5258.05%2.11%17.83%118.70%
69
Neutral
$4.17B-112.48-4.25%35.87%85.20%
68
Neutral
$4.40B-188.04-0.64%11.63%50.72%
67
Neutral
$3.00B61.638.82%13.93%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
62
Neutral
$4.80B-64.82-8.65%22.69%-32.47%
56
Neutral
$7.06B-90.11-9.39%24.27%73.11%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
COMP
Compass
9.75
1.06
12.20%
QTWO
Q2 Holdings
48.12
-35.98
-42.78%
BILL
Bill.com Holdings
44.51
-7.06
-13.69%
FROG
JFrog
40.15
4.06
11.25%
ZETA
Zeta Global Holdings Corp
16.95
0.38
2.29%
YOU
Clear Secure
48.64
25.51
110.29%

Compass Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Compass Reports Record 2025 Results and Cash Flow
Positive
Feb 26, 2026

On February 26, 2026, Compass reported record results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighted by Q4 revenue of $1.70 billion, up 23.1% year over year, and full-year revenue of $7.0 billion, along with record full-year operating cash flow of $217 million and its eighth consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow. Although the company posted a GAAP net loss of $42.6 million in Q4 2025, reflecting merger-related costs and non-cash expenses, it significantly improved profitability metrics with Adjusted EBITDA rising to $58.3 million, strengthened its balance sheet with $199 million in cash and no revolver borrowings, expanded its principal agent base by 19.4%, and continued to outperform the U.S. housing market in transaction and GTV growth while deepening adoption of its technology platform and integrating recent acquisitions, including Christie’s International Real Estate and the closed Anywhere transaction.

Operationally in 2025, Compass drove 19.7% year-over-year growth in Q4 transactions versus a 0.7% increase for the broader U.S. market, lifted organic revenue and GTV by double digits, and maintained high agent retention at 96.8%. The company also advanced key platform offerings such as Compass One, Make-Me-Sell, One-Click Title & Escrow and a new Buyer Demand Tool, which together increased client engagement and attach rates, underscoring a strategy of tightly linking technology, ancillary services, and disciplined cost control to enhance competitiveness and long-term value for agents and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Compass Closes Anywhere Merger and Issues Convertible Notes
Positive
Jan 9, 2026

On January 9, 2026, Compass issued $1.0 billion of 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 in a private placement to institutional buyers, using the proceeds primarily to repay existing indebtedness of Anywhere Real Estate and cover costs tied to their merger, as well as to fund capped call transactions designed to limit dilution upon conversion of the notes. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations guaranteed by certain Compass subsidiaries, carry an initial conversion price of about $15.98 per share and are paired with capped call transactions with a $23.68 per-share cap, reinforcing the company’s capital structure as it integrates Anywhere. On the same date, Compass completed its previously announced all-stock acquisition of Anywhere, exchanging each share of Anywhere common stock for 1.436 Compass shares, and began operating the combined business under Compass International Holdings, positioning the enlarged group—under Chairman and CEO Robert Reffkin—as a dominant, technology-driven platform for real estate professionals that brings together respected brands and agents on a single modern technology infrastructure.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Compass Prices Upsized Convertible Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jan 8, 2026

On January 8, 2026, Compass, Inc. announced it had priced an upsized private offering of $850 million in 0.25% convertible senior notes due April 15, 2031, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $150 million, targeted to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The senior unsecured notes, guaranteed by key Compass subsidiaries, carry an initial conversion rate implying a $15.98 per-share conversion price—about a 35% premium to the January 7, 2026 NYSE closing price—and are supported by capped call transactions with a $23.68 cap, or a 100% premium, designed to limit potential dilution from conversion. Compass plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including, if its previously announced merger with Anywhere Real Estate Inc. is completed, repaying portions of Anywhere’s existing indebtedness and covering merger-related costs, as well as funding the capped call transactions, a move that would strengthen the combined entity’s balance sheet and could influence trading dynamics in Compass’s Class A stock and the notes as counterparties hedge their positions.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Compass and Anywhere stockholders approve transformative merger
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2025, Compass, Inc. held a special meeting of stockholders at which shareholders overwhelmingly approved the issuance of Compass Class A common stock to stockholders of Anywhere Real Estate Inc. in connection with their planned merger, as well as the option to adjourn the meeting if needed, though adjournment proved unnecessary due to a strong quorum and decisive support. In a joint announcement dated January 7, 2026, Compass and Anywhere reported that stockholders of both companies had overwhelmingly approved all merger-related proposals at their respective special meetings, with approximately 99% of votes cast at Compass supporting the share issuance and 72.4% of Anywhere’s outstanding shares voting to adopt the merger agreement; the merger, expected to close on January 9, 2026 subject to customary conditions, is set to combine Compass’s tech-driven brokerage platform with Anywhere’s extensive franchise, brokerage, relocation, and title operations, potentially creating a more powerful player in residential real estate and affecting agents, franchise owners, and other stakeholders across both networks.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Compass Launches Convertible Notes Offering for Merger Financing
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

Compass said the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period for its planned merger with Anywhere Real Estate expired on January 2, 2026, clearing a key U.S. antitrust hurdle as both companies move toward shareholder votes scheduled for January 7, 2026 and potential closing shortly thereafter, subject to remaining customary conditions. On January 7, 2026, Compass also announced a proposed private offering of $750 million in convertible senior notes due 2031, with an option for an additional $112.5 million, to be used for general corporate purposes including repayment of Anywhere’s debt and merger-related costs if the deal closes, as well as capped call transactions intended to limit dilution, enabling the company to replace previously arranged bridge financing and refine the capital structure underpinning the proposed acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Buy with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Compass Issues Supplemental Disclosures Amid Anywhere Merger Lawsuits
Negative
Dec 29, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Compass, Inc. entered into a merger agreement under which its wholly owned subsidiary will merge with Anywhere Real Estate Inc., leaving Anywhere as a wholly owned subsidiary of Compass, and the companies have been soliciting shareholder approval ahead of a special meeting scheduled for January 7, 2026. After the joint proxy statement/prospectus was filed in November and finalized in December 2025, three lawsuits by Anywhere shareholders and several demand letters from shareholders of both companies alleged that the proxy materials were misleading or incomplete and sought to block or unwind the deal or obtain damages, prompting Compass and Anywhere—while denying any wrongdoing or legal need for additional disclosure—to issue voluntary supplemental financial and compensation-related disclosures, including expanded valuation assumptions from Goldman Sachs and more detail on executive and director equity awards and potential post-merger arrangements, in an effort to reduce litigation risk and avoid delays to the shareholder vote and closing of the merger.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Buy with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 27, 2026