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Coincheck Group (CNCK)
NASDAQ:CNCK
US Market

Coincheck Group (CNCK) AI Stock Analysis

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CNCK

Coincheck Group

(NASDAQ:CNCK)

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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(4.17% Upside)
The score is primarily driven by weak financial performance—negative profitability and high leverage outweigh revenue and free-cash-flow growth. Technicals add further pressure as the stock trades below major moving averages with negative momentum indicators. Valuation provides little support since P/E and dividend yield are unavailable.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Free Cash Flow Growth
Sustained TTM revenue growth and a large increase in free cash flow point to improving core cash generation. Over the next several months this can fund product development, M&A integration, and working capital needs, reducing reliance on external capital if trends persist.
User Base Expansion
Steady growth in verified accounts demonstrates durable user acquisition and platform scale in Japan. A larger, stickier customer base supports recurring transaction fees, cross-sell of services, and network effects that underpin revenue resilience over the coming months.
Strategic M&A and International Expansion
Serial acquisitions (Aplo, Next Finance) and the planned 3iQ deal signal a structural shift toward diversified institutional and international offerings. This broadens product mix, spreads public-company costs, and builds scale advantages that can strengthen revenue stability and market reach.
Negative Factors
High Financial Leverage
Very high debt-to-equity increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constraining strategic flexibility. Over a multi-month horizon, leverage amplifies downside risk during crypto market stress and can force prioritization of debt service over growth investments or M&A integration.
Sustained Unprofitability
Persistent negative margins indicate structural profitability issues—either high operating costs or weak pricing power. Without margin recovery, revenue growth alone may not translate to shareholder returns and can erode equity over several months as losses accumulate.
Weak Operating Cash Flow
Negative operating cash flow despite FCF improvement suggests reliance on non-core or timing-related cash sources. Over the medium term this undermines the sustainability of operations and makes the company vulnerable if non-operational inflows reverse or capital needs increase.

Coincheck Group (CNCK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Coincheck Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCoincheck Group N.V. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in the crypto asset and web3 domains, as well as offers cryptocurrency trading services.
How the Company Makes MoneyCoincheck generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged on trades executed on its cryptocurrency exchange platform. The company earns a percentage of each trade as well as deposit and withdrawal fees for users accessing their funds. Additionally, Coincheck may monetize its services through premium features and products, such as advanced trading tools for professional investors. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and other fintech companies enhance its service offerings and can lead to additional revenue opportunities, while market volatility in cryptocurrencies can significantly impact trading volumes and, consequently, earnings.

Coincheck Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue grew 16% (TTM), but profitability is weak with negative net/EBIT/EBITDA margins and low gross margin. The balance sheet is highly levered (debt-to-equity 5.38) with negative ROE, and cash flow is mixed—free cash flow grew 29% but operating cash flow remains negative.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement reveals a challenging financial landscape for Coincheck Group. Despite a 16% revenue growth in the TTM, the company struggles with negative net profit margins and EBIT margins, indicating operational inefficiencies. The gross profit margin is low, suggesting limited pricing power or high cost of goods sold. The negative EBITDA margin further highlights issues in core profitability.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.38 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The negative return on equity suggests that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is relatively low, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates some positive trends, with a 29% growth in free cash flow in the TTM. However, the operating cash flow remains negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, suggesting cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to generate cash relative to net losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue454.78B383.33B224.05B176.92B690.97B524.42B
Gross Profit12.24B10.79B6.98B5.30B24.97B18.99B
EBITDA-13.04B-12.60B3.52B-360.00M14.37B14.09B
Net Income-15.82B-14.35B1.97B-559.00M9.79B10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets137.07B112.27B119.19B71.98B540.13B486.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.08B8.61B10.84B8.37B17.72B66.66B
Total Debt62.84B45.76B45.68B19.11B34.47B28.56B
Total Liabilities126.65B101.50B106.75B61.50B524.09B473.15B
Stockholders Equity10.42B10.77B12.44B10.48B16.04B12.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-3.48B-2.62B3.59B-4.19B7.18B838.00M
Operating Cash Flow-2.77B-1.92B3.90B-3.80B7.40B1.03B
Investing Cash Flow-1.05B-903.00M-435.00M-749.00M-219.00M-269.00M
Financing Cash Flow2.16B565.00M-327.00M-5.46B-6.65B-225.00M

Coincheck Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.40
Price Trends
50DMA
3.31
Negative
100DMA
3.85
Negative
200DMA
4.79
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.18
Negative
RSI
40.91
Neutral
STOCH
29.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNCK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.67, below the 50-day MA of 3.31, and below the 200-day MA of 4.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CNCK.

Coincheck Group Risk Analysis

Coincheck Group disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coincheck Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Coincheck Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$494.45M7.5138.27%29.96%66.09%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
65
Neutral
$655.93M12.1510.23%0.84%8.26%94.53%
51
Neutral
$417.79M-4.87-0.27%93.57%-106.02%
44
Neutral
$91.83M-0.07-371.02%
43
Neutral
$313.95M-1.11%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNCK
Coincheck Group
2.35
-6.55
-73.60%
HIFS
Hingham Institution For Savings
309.02
52.66
20.54%
ETHZ
ETHZilla Corporation
4.64
-9.76
-67.78%
FOA
Finance of America Companies
23.56
-1.82
-7.17%
FUFU
BitFuFu
2.86
-2.34
-45.00%

Coincheck Group Corporate Events

Coincheck Group to Acquire 3iQ in All-Share Deal to Accelerate Global Digital Asset Expansion
Jan 8, 2026

On January 8, 2026, Coincheck Group N.V. announced it had signed a stock purchase agreement with majority shareholder Monex Group to acquire approximately 97% beneficial ownership of Canadian digital asset manager 3iQ Corp. in an all‑share deal valuing 3iQ at about $111.8 million. Coincheck will issue 27.15 million new ordinary shares to Monex and plans to extend equivalent terms to 3iQ’s minority shareholders for up to an additional 810,435 shares, with closing targeted for the second quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and due diligence. The transaction marks a major step in Coincheck’s global and institutional expansion strategy, following its 2025 acquisitions of crypto prime broker Aplo SAS and staking services provider Next Finance, and is intended to create revenue synergies across ETF, ETP, hedge fund and staking offerings while spreading public company costs over a larger, more diversified digital asset investment platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNCK) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coincheck Group stock, see the CNCK Stock Forecast page.

Coincheck Group Reports Unaudited 2025 Monthly Metrics, Highlighting Continued Account Growth
Jan 6, 2026

On January 6, 2026, Coincheck Group filed a Form 6-K providing a preliminary monthly performance snapshot for Coincheck, Inc. over the twelve months of 2025, disclosing exchange and marketplace trading volumes, customer assets and verified account numbers. The data show that while trading volumes and customer assets fluctuated throughout 2025, verified accounts expanded steadily from about 2.26 million in January to roughly 2.48 million by December, underscoring continued user growth despite market volatility. The figures, which are unaudited and subject to revision, give investors greater transparency into Coincheck’s operating trends and reinforce the platform’s scale and positioning in Japan’s crypto trading market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNCK) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coincheck Group stock, see the CNCK Stock Forecast page.

Coincheck Group Reports Monthly Trading and Account Growth
Dec 2, 2025

Coincheck Group N.V. released its preliminary monthly disclosure for Coincheck, Inc., covering the past twelve months up to November 2025. The report highlights fluctuations in exchange and marketplace trading volumes, customer assets, and the number of verified accounts. Notably, the exchange trading volume saw a significant decrease from December 2024 to November 2025, while the number of verified accounts steadily increased, indicating a growing user base despite the trading volume variations. These insights suggest potential shifts in market dynamics and customer engagement, impacting the company’s operations and positioning within the cryptocurrency industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNCK) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coincheck Group stock, see the CNCK Stock Forecast page.

Coincheck Group Expands Globally with Aplo Acquisition
Nov 28, 2025

On November 28, 2025, Coincheck Group N.V. announced the release of a presentation on its website detailing its operations and future strategies. The company highlighted its recent acquisition of the digital asset prime brokerage Aplo, marking its first geographic expansion outside Japan. This move aims to strengthen its institutional investor service offerings and enhance synergies with Monex Group companies. The acquisition aligns with Coincheck’s vision to become a global integrated tokenized financial service provider, as the company continues to pursue global M&A opportunities to enhance its capabilities in a tokenized world.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNCK) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coincheck Group stock, see the CNCK Stock Forecast page.

Coincheck Group Releases Interim Financial Statements for 2025
Nov 14, 2025

Coincheck Group N.V. has released its unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the periods ending September 30, 2025, and March 31, 2025. These statements, along with the management’s discussion and analysis of financial conditions and results of operations, provide insights into the company’s financial performance over the past months. This release is significant for stakeholders as it offers a detailed view of the company’s operational health and strategic positioning in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNCK) stock is a Sell with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coincheck Group stock, see the CNCK Stock Forecast page.

Coincheck Group Reports Strong Q2 2026 Financial Results
Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Coincheck Group N.V. announced its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, reporting a significant 89% year-over-year increase in total revenue to ¥133.1 billion ($900 million). The company also highlighted a 92% increase in gross margin and a substantial rise in net income to ¥355 million ($2.4 million), driven by an increase in verified accounts, customer assets, and marketplace trading volume. Coincheck’s strategic moves, including the acquisition of Aplo SAS and a partnership with Mercoin, aim to expand its market reach and strengthen its position in the crypto industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNCK) stock is a Sell with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coincheck Group stock, see the CNCK Stock Forecast page.

Coincheck Group Awaits Key Earnings Announcement Following Monex’s Financial Update
Nov 7, 2025

On November 7, 2025, Coincheck Group’s controlling shareholder, Monex Group, released its financial results for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The results included limited metrics related to Coincheck Group, presented under different accounting standards than those used by Coincheck Group. Coincheck Group plans to announce its own earnings on November 12, 2025. The announcement highlights the complexities of financial reporting across different regulatory environments and underscores the importance of Coincheck Group’s upcoming earnings release for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNCK) stock is a Sell with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coincheck Group stock, see the CNCK Stock Forecast page.

Coincheck Group Releases October 2025 Trading Volume and Customer Data
Nov 5, 2025

Coincheck Group N.V. has released preliminary monthly disclosure information for Coincheck, Inc. for the past twelve months, ending October 2025. The data shows fluctuations in exchange and marketplace trading volumes, customer assets, and the number of verified accounts. Notably, the exchange trading volume reached 461,239 million yen in October 2025, indicating a recovery from previous months. This update provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s operational performance and market activity, although the figures are preliminary and unaudited.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNCK) stock is a Sell with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coincheck Group stock, see the CNCK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 29, 2026