The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 540.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 39.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.80
• Revenue Growth: 10.50%
• EPS Growth: 59.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,029
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Food Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 1.30
• Shares Outstanding: 40,988,476
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 507,309
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 540,626
• PEG Ratio: 0.67
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.56
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 7.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $68.67
• Price Target Upside: 33.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

The Chefs' Warehouse is performing well with strong revenue growth and improved profitability, supported by effective digital strategy execution. However, the stock's high valuation and mixed technical indicators suggest caution. Positive future guidance from the earnings call adds confidence, though operational cost challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Market Expansion

Chefs' Warehouse has transitioned from a New York-centric distributor to a national powerhouse, emphasizing methodical expansion and digital transformation.

Sales Growth

Mature and high-growth markets contribute significantly to sales growth, with established markets expected to grow sales by 5-10% and higher growth markets by 10-15%.

Technology Investments

Technology investments, including a new analytics suite and voice pick for order selection, strengthen CHEF's competitive advantage and increase operational efficiency.

Negative Factors

Cost Challenges

The cost of a new warehouse facility is 3x what it was pre-COVID, which favors larger operators and challenges smaller ones.

Economic Environment

Chefs' Warehouse has a wide economic moat, benefiting from its hybrid distribution model, premium supplier relationships, and focus on higher-end, independent restaurants, which are less susceptible to economic downturns.

The Chefs' Warehouse Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in distribution of specialty food products in the United States and Canada. The company's product portfolio includes approximately 50,000 stock-keeping units, such as specialty food products, such as artisan charcuterie, specialty cheeses, unique oils and vinegars, truffles, caviar, chocolate, and pastry products. It also offers a line of center-of-the-plate products, including custom cut beef, seafood, and hormone-free poultry, as well as food products, such as cooking oils, butter, eggs, milk, and flour. The company serves menu-driven independent restaurants, fine dining establishments, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools, bakeries, patisseries, chocolatiers, cruise lines, casinos, and specialty food stores. It markets its center-of-the-plate products directly to consumers through a mail and e-commerce platform. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Ridgefield, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

The Chefs' Warehouse generates revenue primarily through the wholesale distribution of specialty food products to the foodservice industry. The company's key revenue streams include sales of premium ingredients, such as meats, cheeses, oils, and condiments, to restaurants and culinary establishments. Additionally, The Chefs' Warehouse benefits from strategic partnerships with artisanal and specialty food producers, enhancing its product offerings and appeal to high-end culinary clients. The company also leverages its logistics and distribution network to ensure timely delivery of products, contributing to its revenue growth and customer retention.

The Chefs' Warehouse Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The Chefs' Warehouse has shown strong revenue growth and improved profitability with a notable increase in net profit margin. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage, while cash flow is robust with significant improvements. However, there are areas for cost management enhancement.

Income Statement

The Chefs' Warehouse has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.5% increase in total revenue from 2023 to 2024. Gross profit margin stands at 24.1%, and net profit margin has improved to 1.46%, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT margin is 3.38%, showing operational efficiency. However, EBITDA margin has decreased from the previous year, highlighting potential areas for improvement in cost management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a healthy equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity has improved to 10.32%, showcasing effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio is 28.9%, suggesting that a significant portion of assets is financed by liabilities, which could pose risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The company exhibits strong free cash flow growth, with an impressive improvement of over 2,356% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.76, indicating healthy cash generation relative to profits. Nonetheless, the free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.87, reflecting efficient management of cash flow relative to income, yet highlighting potential areas for enhanced investment in capital expenditures.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.79B	3.43B	2.61B	1.75B	1.11B
	Gross Profit
914.15M	814.47M	618.64M	390.49M	248.15M
	EBIT
128.21M	100.94M	85.74M	10.81M	-102.66M
	EBITDA
128.21M	156.55M	85.74M	10.81M	-68.69M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
55.48M	34.59M	27.75M	-4.92M	-82.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
114.66M	49.88M	158.80M	115.16M	193.28M
	Total Assets
1.86B	1.71B	1.51B	1.07B	974.33M
	Total Debt
227.08M	926.27M	832.77M	542.48M	530.48M
	Net Debt
112.43M	876.39M	673.97M	427.32M	337.20M
	Total Liabilities
1.32B	1.25B	1.10B	723.58M	629.74M
	Stockholders Equity
537.65M	454.67M	401.51M	350.21M	344.59M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
103.56M	4.21M	-22.71M	-58.70M	35.84M
	Operating Cash Flow
153.06M	61.64M	23.13M	-19.90M	42.88M
	Investing Cash Flow
-49.82M	-179.31M	-232.02M	-48.99M	-67.97M
	Financing Cash Flow
-38.48M	9.01M	253.22M	-9.22M	78.06M

The Chefs' Warehouse Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 51.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHEF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.59, below the 50-day MA of 56.44, and above the 200-day MA of 46.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHEF.

The Chefs' Warehouse Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
USFD	79 Outperform	$14.92B	32.14	10.65%	―	6.41%	-2.01%
SYY	74 Outperform	$34.77B	18.26	87.49%	2.86%	3.95%	-5.04%
CHEF	71 Outperform	$2.15B	39.67	11.18%	―	10.50%	59.18%
PFGC	71 Outperform	$12.20B	30.41	9.54%	―	3.85%	-9.74%
SPTN	63 Neutral	$649.85M	2,206.90	0.04%	4.62%	-2.66%	8.18%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.76B	10.11	-0.70%	3.92%	1.27%	-16.30%
UNFI	55 Neutral	$1.52B	―	-4.94%	―	4.73%	29.70%

The Chefs' Warehouse Corporate Events

The Chefs’ Warehouse Announces 2025 Financial Guidance

The Chefs’ Warehouse has announced its preliminary financial guidance for fiscal year 2025, anticipating net sales between $3.94 billion and $4.04 billion, gross profit ranging from $951 million to $976 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $233 million and $246 million. The company will host an Investor Day on March 13, 2025, to engage further with stakeholders. These projections suggest a stable outlook for the company, despite potential risks and uncertainties outlined in their report, possibly impacting its operations and market positioning.