Roche Holding AG (CH:ROP)
:ROP
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Roche Holding AG
(ROP)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
CHF340.00
▲(7.73% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (profitability, free cash flow, and improving leverage) and a generally positive earnings outlook with clear guidance and pipeline momentum. This is tempered by weak current technical momentum and meaningful near-term headwinds flagged on the call (China Diagnostics, FX/tax impacts, working-capital pressure, and 2026 LOE/regulatory risks).
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
Roche’s sustained high free cash flow (CHF14.1bn in 2025) and historically strong operating cash generation provide durable funding for R&D, capital expenditure and the USD50bn U.S. commitment. High FCF-to-income ratios indicate quality earnings and long‑term capacity to support dividends and strategic investments.
Negative Factors
China Diagnostics pricing shock
China healthcare pricing reforms produced a sizable, structural hit to Diagnostics revenues (CHF579m). Prolonged pricing pressure or slower recovery could permanently depress recurring consumables volumes and margins in a major market, challenging near‑term top‑line resilience and requiring offset from other regions or new products.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow strength
Roche’s sustained high free cash flow (CHF14.1bn in 2025) and historically strong operating cash generation provide durable funding for R&D, capital expenditure and the USD50bn U.S. commitment. High FCF-to-income ratios indicate quality earnings and long‑term capacity to support dividends and strategic investments.
Read all positive factors
Roche Holding AG (ROP) vs. iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL)
Market Cap
CHF252.53B
Dividend Yield2.94%
Average Volume (3M)1.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.3
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth4.77%
EPS Growth-11.07%
CountryCH
Employees103,249
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.38
Shares Outstanding702,562,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,308,571
30 Day Avg. Volume1,251,256
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)7.73
Price to Sales (P/S)4.25
P/FCF Ratio18.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
CHF350.78Price Target Upside11.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)20.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)CHF63.08B
Roche Holding AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Roche Holding AG engages in the pharmaceuticals and diagnostics businesses in Switzerland, Germany, the United States, Austria, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and internationally. The company offers pharmaceutical products for t...
How the Company Makes Money
Roche makes money mainly by selling healthcare products through its Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics divisions. In Pharmaceuticals, revenue is generated from the sale of patented prescription medicines to hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, and governm...
Roche Holding AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational execution: group sales +7% (Pharma +9%), core operating profit +13% and meaningful pipeline momentum with multiple positive Phase III readouts, approvals, a record 10 NMEs entering Phase III and launches (AXELIOS sequencing, mass spec, dengue test). Roche also secured a major U.S. government agreement and committed large U.S. investments. Material headwinds were acknowledged — notably Diagnostics headwinds from China pricing reforms (CHF 579m impact), FX and cash-flow/working capital pressures, higher taxes reducing EPS momentum, LOE effects (~CHF 700m) and safety/regulatory scrutiny (fenebrutinib liver signal). Management provided 2026 guidance (mid-single-digit sales growth, high single-digit Core EPS growth) and expects Diagnostics headwinds to diminish in 2026 and largely disappear by 2027. Overall, the positives from sales, margin expansion, prolific pipeline and strategic investments substantially outweighed the operational and market challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Group sales growth and guidance delivered
Group sales grew 7% in FY2025 (constant exchange rates). Roche met its upgraded guidance (mid-single-digit sales growth) and delivered a strong full-year performance with Core EPS up 11%.
Negative Updates
Diagnostics headwinds from China healthcare reforms
Diagnostics sales grew only 2% overall; the China healthcare pricing reforms reduced Diagnostics sales by CHF 579 million with China revenues down ~24%. Excluding China, Diagnostics grew ~7% (CER).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group sales growth and guidance delivered
Group sales grew 7% in FY2025 (constant exchange rates). Roche met its upgraded guidance (mid-single-digit sales growth) and delivered a strong full-year performance with Core EPS up 11%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Roche guided to mid‑single‑digit group sales growth for 2026 and high‑single‑digit core EPS growth while signalling continued increases to the dividend in Swiss francs; this follows 2025 results of group sales +7% (Pharma +9%, Diagnostics +2% or +7% ex‑China), core operating profit +13% with a core margin up 1.9 percentage points (Pharma COP margin 49.2%), core EPS +11% (adjusted starting base CHF 19.83/share), operating free cash flow CHF 16.2bn (vs CHF 20.2bn in 2024), net debt reduced by CHF 1.1bn (from net -CHF 17.3bn), M&A/intangible spend ~CHF 5.1bn and intangible investment up ~CHF 645m; Roche flagged LOE impacts ~CHF 700m in 2025 and ~CHF 1bn expected in 2026, a Diagnostics 2026 ambition of mid‑single‑digit growth (returning to mid‑to‑high single digits thereafter) after a China headwind of -CHF 579m (China sales -24%), Diagnostics core OP ~CHF 2bn (-4% CER), an effective tax rate rising to ~18.6% in 2025 and expected around 20% in 2026, currency headwinds that trimmed 2025 by roughly -5 percentage points on sales (-8 pp on core OP, -7 pp on core EPS) (with a similar -4 pp/‑6 pp impact if current rates persist into 2026), and a $50bn US investment commitment over the next five years.Roche Holding AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 61.52B | 62.40B | 60.44B | 65.81B | 62.80B |
| Gross Profit | 45.23B | 46.11B | 44.08B | 47.88B | 43.10B |
| EBITDA | 22.66B | 16.62B | 18.41B | 20.80B | 22.19B |
| Net Income | 12.88B | 8.28B | 11.50B | 12.42B | 13.93B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 100.70B | 101.80B | 90.47B | 88.15B | 92.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.48B | 17.32B | 10.51B | 9.77B | 13.03B |
| Total Debt | 33.19B | 36.35B | 30.78B | 26.54B | 32.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 62.82B | 65.64B | 57.20B | 56.14B | 63.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.80B | 31.77B | 29.32B | 27.99B | 24.49B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.08B | 15.09B | 11.45B | 13.34B | 16.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.83B | 20.09B | 16.09B | 17.89B | 20.57B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.71B | -11.39B | -10.64B | -3.57B | -6.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.18B | -6.82B | -4.24B | -15.72B | -12.70B |
Roche Holding AG Technical Analysis
Positive
315.60
Price Trends
333.35
Negative
323.69
Negative
290.35
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.65
Negative
44.56
Neutral
47.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:ROP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 315.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 313.81, below the 50-day MA of 333.35, and above the 200-day MA of 290.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CH:ROP.
Roche Holding AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | CHF222.29B | 18.30 | ― | 3.18% | 7.62% | -18.33% | |
72 Outperform | CHF30.78B | 38.35 | 4.44% | 0.44% | 0.39% | -12.46% | |
68 Neutral | CHF252.53B | 20.28 | 31.98% | 2.94% | 4.77% | -11.07% | |
66 Neutral | CHF29.31B | 32.85 | 2.64% | 1.02% | ― | ― | |
63 Neutral | CHF37.52B | 28.64 | ― | 0.09% | 6.22% | ― | |
56 Neutral | CHF35.10B | 39.77 | ― | 0.75% | 5.93% | 29.83% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CH:ROP
Roche Holding AG
315.60
71.38
29.23%
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CH:GALD
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159.80
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103.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.