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Bullish (BLSH)
NYSE:BLSH
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Bullish
(NYSE:BLSH)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▼(-2.47% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (profitability and operating cash flow) and bearish technical trend (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call provides a meaningful positive offset via record adjusted results and strong early growth initiatives, but near-term risks remain given flat Q4 SS&O guidance and U.S. onboarding friction.
Positive Factors
Rapid revenue growth and improving EBITDA
Sustained, high single‑quarter revenue and EBITDA records indicate strong product-market fit across trading, liquidity services and options. Durable top-line scale improves ability to invest in infrastructure and product development, and creates room to convert growth into sustainable profits over time.
Conservative capital structure (low leverage)
A low debt‑to‑equity ratio provides financial flexibility to fund expansion, absorb market shocks, and invest in regulated U.S. growth without heavy refinancing risk. This strengthens long‑term resilience and supports multi‑year strategic initiatives such as institutional onboarding and product rollouts.
Regulatory authorization enabling U.S. expansion
Obtaining a BitLicense is a structural milestone that lowers regulatory barriers and builds trust with institutional and retail U.S. clients. It enables regulated product offerings, supports long‑term market access, and helps monetize tokenization and index opportunities across U.S. exchanges.
Negative Factors
Negative operating cash flow
Persistent negative operating cash flow signals that core operations are not yet self‑funding, raising reliance on external capital. Over months to years this constrains reinvestment, increases dilution or leverage risk, and makes sustained product and market expansion dependent on financing availability.
Low profitability and thin operating margins
Despite rapid revenue growth, weak gross and operating margins limit free cash generation and the firm’s ability to scale profitably. Without margin expansion via pricing power, product mix, or cost efficiency, long‑term returns and funding capacity for strategic initiatives remain constrained.
Prolonged U.S. customer onboarding friction
Lengthy, diligence‑driven onboarding is a structural headwind in the post‑FTX regulatory environment, slowing U.S. revenue capture and raising acquisition costs. Over time this delays network effects, hinders scale in a key market, and favors incumbents with established compliance infrastructure.
Bullish (BLSH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.97
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees400
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding150,683,750
10 Day Avg. Volume1,958,692
30 Day Avg. Volume2,430,913
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.02
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit39.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-31.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.17Price Target Upside56.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$375.89M
Bullish Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBullish provides market infrastructure and information services in United States. It operates Bullish Exchange, a digital assets spot and derivatives exchange that integrates a central limit order book matching engine with automated market making to provide deep and predictable liquidity. The company also offers CoinDesk Indices, a collection of tradable proprietary and single-asset benchmarks and indices that track the performance of digital assets for global institutions in the digital assets and traditional finance industries; CoinDesk Data, a comprehensive suite of digital assets market data and analytics, providing real-time insights into prices, trends, and market dynamics; and CoinDesk Insights, operates Coindesk.com, a leading digital media platform that covers news and insights about digital assets, the underlying markets, policy, and blockchain technology. Bullish was founded in 2020 and is based in George Town, Cayman Islands.
How the Company Makes MoneyBullish generates revenue through several key streams: transaction fees from trades executed on its platform, which are charged to users based on the volume of their trades. Additionally, Bullish may earn money through market-making activities, providing liquidity to the market while profiting from the spread between buying and selling prices. The company may also engage in partnerships with other financial institutions, enhancing its service offerings and creating additional avenues for revenue, such as referral programs or joint ventures in the cryptocurrency space. Furthermore, Bullish could explore revenue from premium services or subscription models for advanced trading features aimed at professional traders and institutions.
Bullish Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized pronounced operational and financial progress: strong revenue and profitability gains, rapid adoption of options, expanding regulatory footprint, deepening tokenization and liquidity-service partnerships, and a robust information-services franchise. Management provided growth guidance that implies continued momentum (SS&O midpoint implying ~50% YoY growth). Headwinds include recent sharp crypto price declines, month-to-month transaction revenue volatility, regulatory uncertainty around U.S. market-structure legislation, and planned product sunsetting and higher operating/event costs. Overall, the positives (record revenues, margin expansion, product traction and regulatory wins) materially outweigh the risks discussed, though execution and macro/regulatory developments remain key near-term monitors.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record SS&O Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q4 SS&O revenue of $54.6M (management cited +284% YoY); full-year SS&O revenue $157.7M (≈+160% YoY). Adjusted total revenue: Q4 $92.5M and FY2025 $288.5M (≈+35% FY growth; management noted Q4 growth near +70% YoY).
Robust Profitability and Margin Expansion
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $44.5M, up ~55% sequentially and ~181% YoY, representing a record 48% adjusted EBITDA margin; full-year adjusted EBITDA $94.3M.
Options Product Launch Quickly Scaled
Options went live Oct 29; by end of Q4 open interest exceeded $2B, earlier peaked >$4B, and reached a high of 29% volume market share. Bullish is now the clear #2 Bitcoin options platform by open interest and is pursuing market leadership.
Growing Customer Engagement and Platform Metrics
Every month in 2025 saw all-time highs in monthly active customers; records set for total customer funds on platform and open interest for perpetuals and options; options launch attracted new client segments who trade across spot, perps, and options.
Material Regulatory and Market Access Progress
Secured tier-one licenses including New York BitLicense, MICA (Europe), Hong Kong SFC authorizations, and Germany BaFin; registered as a transfer agent and exploring DCO/DCM/broker-dealer/ATS in the U.S.; completed public markets listing (IPO) milestone.
Momentum in Liquidity Services and Tokenization
Expanded liquidity services with new listings/partners including IOTA, VeChain, Paxos, Midnight, Canton and USDAI (partner AUM >$650M). Pipeline strong; expecting to list five new partner assets including a Fidelity stablecoin.
Information Services and Index Franchise Strength
CoinDesk indices served as benchmark data provider for 30 single-token ETFs in 2025; listed 15 of 39 new digital asset ETFs in Q4. ICE to launch futures tied to CoinDesk indices. CoinDesk Insights and paid research traction (9 distinct customers paid for research in Q4, first full quarter).
2026 Financial Guidance Reflects Continued Growth
SS&O revenue guidance $220M–$250M (midpoint implies ~50% YoY growth per management). Adjusted operating expenses guidance $210M–$230M; finance expense guidance $52M–$60M (flat to slightly down from Q4 run rate).
Negative Updates
Industry Price Volatility and Recent Market Weakness
Management highlighted precipitous drops in digital asset prices over the prior four months (Bitcoin cited as down materially in recent weeks), which may slow some customer spending and could moderate pipeline growth if prolonged.
Transaction Revenue Volatility and Limited Forward Disclosure
Company declined to give full-year adjusted transaction revenue guidance citing volatility; noted that February already exceeded 50% of January's entire adjusted transaction revenue, underscoring month-to-month swings in trading-driven revenue.
Regulatory Uncertainty Around Market-Structure Legislation
Pending U.S. market-structure/Clarity Act issues remain (DeFi KYC/AML, stablecoin yield rules, conflicts-of-interest provisions). Management is optimistic about passage but timeline and final provisions are uncertain and could affect industry dynamics.
Planned Sunsetting of Older Liquidity Products
Management expects selective sunsetting of legacy liquidity service products as part of optimization efforts, which will partially offset revenue and was baked into 2026 SS&O guidance assumptions.
Rising Operating Costs and One-Time Event Expenses
2026 adjusted operating expenses guided to $210M–$230M (midpoint reflects low single-digit growth plus incremental costs for moving Consensus North America to Miami and new performance-based incentives), indicating higher operating outlays.
U.S. Onboarding Lag and Minimal Recent Events Revenue
New York BitLicense obtained mid-Q4 but institutional onboarding in the U.S. is multi-month, so incremental U.S. volume is expected to ramp over time. Events revenue in Q4 was de minimis (similar to Q3).
Sizable Finance Expense Run-Rate
Finance expense guidance of $52M–$60M for 2026 remains material (described as flat to slightly down from Q4 run rate), representing a meaningful ongoing cost item.
Company Guidance
Bullish guided 2026 SS&O revenue of $220–$250 million (midpoint ≈50% YoY growth), adjusted operating expenses of $210–$230 million, and finance expense of $52–$60 million, while not giving full‑year adjusted transaction revenue and pointing investors to monthly exchange metrics (January published; February trading already exceeded 50% of January’s adjusted transaction revenue). For context, Q4 2025 SS&O was $54.6M (up 284% YoY), Q4 adjusted revenue was $92.5M and full‑year adjusted revenue was $288.5M (~35% YoY), Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $44.5M (48% margin) and full‑year adjusted EBITDA was $94.3M, Q4 adjusted operating expenses were $48.1M, Q4 adjusted net income was $28.9M and full‑year adjusted net income was $38.8M, and full‑year SS&O totaled $157.7M (≈160% YoY). Management said the guidance midpoint assumes continued momentum and rising tokenized RWA liquidity bookings and cross‑selling, partially offset by tougher asset/interest‑rate comparables and selective product sunsetting, with op‑ex reflecting low single‑digit growth plus conference and sales incentive costs.Bullish Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong reported revenue growth (114.8%) is offset by weak profitability (low gross/net margins and minimal EBIT/EBITDA margins) and cash flow pressure (negative operating cash flow). Balance sheet leverage is conservative (debt-to-equity 0.23) with a healthy equity ratio, but modest ROE (3.29%) limits the overall financial strength.Income Statement
Bullish has shown a significant revenue growth rate of 114.8% in the latest year, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by low gross and net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also minimal, suggesting challenges in operational efficiency.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is modest at 3.29%, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a stable financial structure.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Bullish has experienced a substantial improvement in free cash flow growth, but the operating cash flow remains negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to convert earnings into cash, yet the overall cash flow position is weak.40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 244.81B | 250.26B | 116.51B | 72.90B | 1.32B |
| Gross Profit | 78.30M | 5.28M | -21.67M | -6.55M | -1.04B |
| EBITDA | -174.74M | 131.65M | 1.31B | -4.12B | -1.27B |
| Net Income | -764.68M | 78.53M | 1.30B | -4.25B | -1.40B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.96B | 3.05B | 1.80B | 3.41B | 7.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 508.88M | 250.36M | 367.67M | 1.41B | 1.23B |
| Total Debt | 601.46M | 543.07M | 440.40M | 14.13M | 6.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 658.17M | 646.75M | 522.23M | 1.52B | 1.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.23B | 2.39B | 1.28B | 1.88B | 6.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -33.69M | -127.63M | 193.64M | -455.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -29.98M | -126.67M | 194.93M | -120.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -45.08M | 3.92M | -1.29M | 1.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -980.00K | -1.21B | -7.73M | -340.36M |
Bullish Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
50 Neutral | $4.64B | -7.59 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
47 Neutral | $35.93M | -0.19 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
46 Neutral | $11.39M | 0.05 | -145.07% | ― | 16.50% | ― | |
43 Neutral | $7.61M | -0.12 | -993.23% | ― | -44.25% | 82.71% | |
41 Neutral | $3.47M | -0.03 | ― | ― | -30.70% | 82.02% | |
40 Underperform | $13.03M | -0.12 | -46.76% | ― | -15.10% | -177.14% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.