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Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)
:BLMN
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Bloomin' Brands
(NASDAQ:BLMN)
36Underperform
Positive Factors
Stock Valuation
An inexpensive stock where new ideas could be a catalyst.
Strategic Initiatives
Various new ideas could be impactful to the business given recent challenges, and it would not be the first brand turnaround seen.
Negative Factors
Earnings Performance
Guidance well below consensus, not the first time this year that has happened, and in contrast to some brands that are seeing improvement.
Financial Guidance
Another guidance cut at BLMN following a soft quarter, and 4Q guide ~50% below Street.
Sales Trends
Week to week trends remain very choppy and more recent data has followed the industry lower.
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$642.93M
Dividend Yield11.49%
Average Volume (3M)3.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth-7.42%
EPS Growth-153.35%
CountryUS
Employees81,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength63
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.50
Shares Outstanding84,930,756
10 Day Avg. Volume3,494,579
30 Day Avg. Volume3,155,032
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.17
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)1.40
P/FCF Ratio1.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.67Price Target Upside42.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
Bloomin' Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBloomin' Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, upscale casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, U.S. and International. Its restaurant portfolio has four concepts, including Outback Steakhouse, a casual steakhouse restaurant; Carrabba's Italian Grill, a casual Italian restaurant; Bonefish Grill; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, a contemporary steakhouse. As of December 26, 2021, the company owned and operated 1,013 full-service restaurants and franchised 157 restaurants across 47 states; and 156 full-service restaurants and franchised 172 restaurants across 17 countries and Guam. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Tampa, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyBloomin' Brands makes money primarily through the operation of its chain of casual dining restaurants. Revenue is generated from the sale of food and beverages to customers. The company's key revenue streams include dine-in services, takeout, and delivery options, which have become increasingly important. Additionally, Bloomin' Brands derives income from franchise operations, which contribute franchise fees and royalties. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and marketing collaborations that enhance brand visibility and attract more customers. Factors such as menu innovation, loyalty programs, and digital ordering platforms also play a significant role in driving sales and revenue growth for Bloomin' Brands.
Bloomin' Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Bloomin' Brands is facing financial pressures with declining revenues and profitability, high leverage, and weak cash flow metrics. The income statement reveals declining revenue and net income, while the balance sheet shows high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.20. Cash flow analysis also indicates potential liquidity issues.Income Statement
The income statement shows declining revenue and net income over the recent period. The gross profit margin is 70.94%, which is strong, but net income turned negative, resulting in a net profit margin of -3.24%. Revenue declined from the previous year, indicating a negative growth trajectory. EBIT margin is 3.54%, and EBITDA margin is -0.69%, suggesting profitability challenges.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.20, indicating substantial reliance on debt. Stockholders' equity has decreased significantly, reflecting financial instability. The equity ratio is only 4.00%, suggesting a low proportion of assets financed by equity. ROE is negative, reflecting profitability issues.35
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow growth, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to the net loss. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, pointing to challenges in converting income into cash.30
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 3.95B | 4.67B | 4.42B | 4.12B | 3.17B | Gross Profit |
| 2.80B | 810.36M | 740.75M | 731.70M | 336.00M | EBIT |
| 139.81M | 325.14M | 330.42M | 308.96M | -98.49M | EBITDA |
| 179.37M | 516.32M | 515.40M | 491.49M | 81.77M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -128.02M | 247.39M | 101.91M | 215.56M | -158.79M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 70.06M | 111.52M | 84.73M | 87.58M | 109.98M | Total Assets |
| 3.38B | 3.42B | 3.32B | 3.29B | 3.36B | Total Debt |
| 1.25B | 2.09B | 1.98B | 1.97B | 2.25B | Net Debt |
| 1.18B | 1.98B | 1.90B | 1.88B | 2.14B | Total Liabilities |
| 3.25B | 3.01B | 3.05B | 3.07B | 3.35B | Stockholders Equity |
| 135.51M | 409.12M | 273.91M | 222.85M | 10.96M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -4.74M | 208.17M | 171.23M | 279.63M | 51.01M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 216.00M | 532.42M | 390.92M | 402.45M | 138.85M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -239.03M | -317.11M | -201.14M | -104.75M | -76.64M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -23.51M | -187.13M | -195.50M | -317.42M | -16.77M |
Bloomin' Brands Technical Analysis
Negative
7.51
Price Trends
9.04
Negative
10.64
Negative
13.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.46
Negative
46.30
Neutral
86.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.46, below the 50-day MA of 9.04, and below the 200-day MA of 13.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLMN.
Bloomin' Brands Risk Analysis
Bloomin' Brands disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bloomin' Brands reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bloomin' Brands Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.28B | 14.39 | 41.18% | 2.30% | 4.13% | 56.76% | |
68 Neutral | $6.71B | 26.11 | 2390.91% | ― | 13.67% | 69.41% | |
68 Neutral | $16.32B | 28.50 | -14.74% | 1.34% | 5.07% | 13.74% | |
67 Neutral | $725.62M | 46.85 | 4.54% | ― | 1.81% | -15.53% | |
60 Neutral | $7.23B | 11.55 | 3.67% | 4.04% | 2.96% | -13.54% | |
57 Neutral | $982.04M | 27.53 | 7.80% | 4.73% | 2.26% | -56.99% | |
36 Underperform | $642.93M | ― | -13.92% | 11.49% | -7.42% | -153.35% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
7.51
-17.88
-70.42%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
31.44
-0.31
-0.98%
EAT
Brinker International
150.33
106.26
241.12%
CBRL
Cracker Barrel
42.18
-12.50
-22.86%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
462.25
-13.14
-2.76%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
46.81
14.17
43.41%
Bloomin' Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -35.87% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While Bloomin' Brands is making strategic moves to simplify operations, improve guest satisfaction, and leverage successful promotions like the Aussie 3-Course, it faces significant challenges in sales performance, industry metrics, and inflationary pressures. The company's efforts to restructure and invest in technology are promising, but underperformance in key metrics and financial pressures weigh heavily.Highlights
Brazil Refranchising Deal
Bloomin' Brands successfully refranchised its Brazil operations, retaining a 33% ownership with the potential to sell the remaining portion in 2028. This move de-risks the business model and provides a steady royalty stream.
Menu Simplification Efforts
The company plans to reduce menu items by 10% to 20% across all brands in 2025, which is expected to simplify operations and improve quality and guest satisfaction.
Successful Execution of Aussie 3-Course Promotion
The Aussie 3-Course promotion at Outback was a strong performer in 2024, driving guest engagement and providing a model for everyday value.
Organizational Restructuring for Efficiency
Bloomin' Brands implemented a new organizational structure to enhance decision-making speed and efficiency, including empowering brand presidents with more resources.
Ziosk Technology Implementation
The rollout of Ziosk technology at Outback is expected to be completed by April, offering features like pay at the table and enhancing guest satisfaction.
Lowlights
Underperformance in Industry Metrics
Bloomin' Brands underperformed the industry, losing 260 basis points in sales and 410 basis points in traffic as per Black Box metrics.
Decline in Comparable Restaurant Sales
U.S. comparable restaurant sales were down by 110 basis points with a negative traffic impact of 510 basis points.
Impairments and Asset Challenges
The company faced a $31 million impairment charge related to 41 older underperforming domestic restaurants.
Negative EPS and Revenue Impact
Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.38, down from $0.56 in the previous year, and total revenues decreased by 8% due to various factors including the 53rd week comparison.
Pressure from Labor and Commodity Inflation
Labor inflation was reported at 3.2% and commodities inflation at 2%, with further expected inflationary pressures in 2025.
Company Guidance
During the Bloomin' Brands Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, CEO Mike Spanos discussed the company's guidance for fiscal 2025. The company expects U.S. comparable restaurant sales to range from down 2% to flat, with adjusted diluted earnings per share between $1.20 and $1.40. Spanos outlined three operating priorities: simplifying the agenda, delivering a great guest experience, and turning around Outback Steakhouse. The company plans to reduce menu items by 10% to 20% and focus on "abundant everyday value." They will also invest in quality improvements and technology, such as Ziosk, to enhance the guest experience. Spanos emphasized the importance of consistent execution in driving traffic and brand trust, particularly highlighting the success of Outback's Aussie 3-Course promotion. Additionally, the fiscal 2025 outlook includes commodities inflation between 2.5% and 3.5% and labor inflation between 4% and 5%. The company aims to reduce its lease-adjusted net leverage to below 3.0 and has adjusted its annual dividend to $0.60 per share, aligning with historical payout ratios post the Brazil transaction.Bloomin' Brands Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Bloomin’ Brands Announces Workforce Reduction in Tampa
Negative
Feb 20, 2025
On February 20, 2025, Bloomin’ Brands announced a workforce reduction at its Tampa, Florida Restaurant Support Center, affecting approximately 100 employees or 17% of the team. This restructuring follows strategic changes, including the re-franchising of its Brazil operations in December 2024, and aims to align costs with business size and focus on growth. The company anticipates incurring $7.5 million in pre-tax costs due to severance but expects annual savings of $22 million. Executive leadership changes were also announced to support the new operational model.
Executive/Board Changes
Bloomin’ Brands Appoints James Dinkins to Board
Positive
Feb 13, 2025
On February 12, 2025, Bloomin’ Brands expanded its Board of Directors from ten to eleven members by appointing James Dinkins as a director. Dinkins, with a rich background in leadership roles at The Honey Baked Ham Company and The Coca-Cola Company, brings a wealth of experience in strategic marketing, brand strategy, and consumer engagement. His appointment is expected to enhance the Board’s decision-making capabilities and support the company’s future plans.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.