BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $773.27M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 354.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.25
• Revenue Growth: 3.85%
• EPS Growth: 7.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,230
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.66
• Shares Outstanding: 21,197,187
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 478,951
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 354,480
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.84
• 1Y Price Target: $44.43
• Price Target Upside: 23.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.44B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(8.00% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/03/26

Overall score reflects strong fundamental improvement (profit rebound and materially better leverage) and a constructive 2026 outlook with margin initiatives and buyback flexibility. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and only mid-range valuation support, plus near-term risks from inflation and check compression.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage / stronger balance sheet

Material deleveraging in 2025 meaningfully reduces financial risk and increases strategic optionality. Lower debt supports continued share repurchases, planned capex for remodels/IT and the limited new-unit program, while providing a buffer if sales or cash flow dip, improving long-term capital flexibility.

Consistent sales and traffic recovery

Sustained comp and traffic gains indicate durable consumer demand recovery for BJ's concept, driven by menu promotions and late-night/dine-in strength. Repeated traction reduces execution risk on revenue growth and supports multi-channel investment returns, underpinning mid-term top-line stability.

Margin expansion from operations initiatives

Meaningful margin improvement reflects lasting operational gains: gross-to-net actions, activity-based AI labor rollout, training and remodels. These structural efficiency measures lift unit economics and free capacity for reinvestment or buybacks, making profitability less reliant on short-term price or traffic swings.

Negative Factors

Worsening free cash flow conversion

Declining free cash flow despite higher earnings suggests working-capital or reinvestment demands that weaken cash conversion. If FCF volatility persists it constrains sustainable capital allocation, limits the pace of buybacks/new openings, and raises sensitivity to operating shocks despite improving accounting profits.

Sustained commodity and labor inflation

Elevated, and in some cases accelerating, input and wage inflation creates ongoing margin pressure. Persistent cost tails force tougher pricing or margin trade-offs; given competitive casual-dining dynamics, the ability to fully pass through costs without harming traffic is limited, pressuring medium-term profitability.

Check compression and off-premise softness

Promotional and mix-driven check compression reduces revenue per guest, offsetting traffic gains and constraining margin upside. Concurrent off-premise declines remove a higher-frequency revenue channel, making sales growth more dependent on dine-in recovery and increasing execution risk for sustaining revenue and unit-level profitability.

BJ's Restaurants Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. owns and operates casual dining restaurants in the United States. The company's restaurants offer pizzas, craft and other beers, appetizers, entrées, pastas, sandwiches, specialty salads, and desserts. As of April 19, 2022, it operated 213 restaurants in 29 states. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Huntington Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

BJ's Restaurants generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages in its restaurants. The company operates a revenue model based on both dine-in and takeout services, catering to a wide customer base. Key revenue streams include food sales, alcoholic beverages, and non-alcoholic drinks. In addition to in-store dining, BJ's has expanded its delivery and takeout services, which have become increasingly important revenue sources. The company also benefits from beer sales through its BJ's Brewhouse locations, where it produces and sells its own craft beers. Significant partnerships with delivery service providers further enhance its reach and convenience for customers. Seasonal promotions and menu innovations also play a crucial role in driving traffic and sales, contributing to overall earnings.

BJ's Restaurants Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid turnaround with steady multi-year revenue growth and a meaningful profitability rebound in 2025. Balance sheet strength improved sharply with significantly lower debt and better returns on equity, reducing financial risk. The main constraint is cash conversion: free cash flow weakened in 2025 versus 2024 and appears less consistent relative to earnings.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025, with a particularly strong step-up in 2025 versus 2024. Profitability has also improved meaningfully: the company moved from losses in 2020–2021 to positive earnings, and 2025 shows a clear rebound with much higher operating profit and net income than 2024. The main weakness is that net profitability is still modest for the industry (low-single-digit net margin), and results have shown volatility over the last several years.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved sharply in 2025: total debt fell significantly versus 2024 and the debt load is now low relative to equity, which reduces financial risk. Equity has remained fairly stable over time, and returns on equity improved materially in 2025 versus the prior few years. A key watch-out is that the balance sheet was meaningfully more leveraged in 2020–2024, and total assets have not consistently grown, suggesting the improvement is recent and should be monitored for durability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improving in absolute terms, with operating cash flow rising from earlier years and remaining solid in 2024–2025. Free cash flow is also positive in 2024–2025, indicating the business is funding its needs while still generating excess cash. However, free cash flow declined in 2025 versus 2024, and free cash flow is a relatively small portion of net income in 2024–2025, pointing to working-capital or reinvestment demands that can pressure cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	1.36B	1.33B	1.28B	1.09B
Gross Profit	1.05B	1.01B	177.79M	144.76M	129.63M
EBITDA	128.55M	86.49M	86.01M	64.97M	58.57M
Net Income	48.81M	16.69M	19.66M	4.08M	-3.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.02B	1.04B	1.22B	1.21B	1.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.78M	26.10M	29.07M	24.87M	38.53M
Total Debt	490.76M	500.61M	519.50M	532.71M	525.26M
Total Liabilities	649.26M	671.05M	856.87M	867.84M	701.39M
Stockholders Equity	366.19M	370.02M	365.76M	345.51M	333.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	40.90M	24.57M	6.92M	-27.48M	22.10M
Operating Cash Flow	110.51M	101.47M	105.84M	51.12M	64.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-69.57M	-76.89M	-98.91M	-71.91M	-42.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-43.26M	-27.55M	-2.73M	7.13M	-35.25M

BJ's Restaurants Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 36.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BJRI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.63, below the 50-day MA of 41.55, and below the 200-day MA of 38.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BJRI.

BJ's Restaurants Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	69 Neutral	$3.12B	15.71	37.06%	2.11%	4.90%	27.14%
BJRI	64 Neutral	$773.27M	17.08	13.19%	―	3.85%	7.57%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
KRUS	58 Neutral	$717.60M	-48.53	-1.75%	―	18.88%	79.28%
PTLO	55 Neutral	$380.56M	16.54	4.32%	―	2.40%	-14.90%
BLMN	45 Neutral	$505.40M	-9.96	2.26%	10.60%	-13.07%	-1139.12%

BJ's Restaurants Corporate Events

BJ’s Restaurants Promotes Christopher Pinsak to Chief Operating Officer

On January 19, 2026, BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. appointed veteran operations leader Christopher P. Pinsak as Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer, formalizing his promotion from Executive Vice President and Chief Restaurant Operations Officer, a role he had held since September 2024. Pinsak brings more than two decades of leadership experience within BJ’s—spanning roles from Regional Vice President of Operations to Senior Vice President of Operations—and prior management posts at Wood Ranch BBQ & Grill and Brinker International’s Chili’s Grill & Bar, positioning him as a continuity-focused choice expected to reinforce operational execution without any disclosed related-party or conflict-of-interest concerns.

The most recent analyst rating on (BJRI) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BJ’s Restaurants stock, see the BJRI Stock Forecast page.