BlackSky Technology (BKSY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $965.19M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.37
• Revenue Growth: -5.13%
• EPS Growth: -37.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 340
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Hardware, Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 36,994,816
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,245,502
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,250,155
• PEG Ratio: 0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.91
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -37.76
• 1Y Price Target: $28.80
• Price Target Upside: 10.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $132.60M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▼(-0.34% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and cash burn despite revenue growth). Offsetting factors include a constructive technical uptrend and a relatively positive earnings outlook driven by 2026 guidance, backlog visibility, and improved liquidity, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Gen‑3 Product Validation

Operational validation of Gen‑3 hardware and rapid commissioning reduces technical execution risk, accelerates conversion of pilots to paid subscriptions, and expands on‑orbit capacity. This durable product credibility supports recurring revenue growth and competitive positioning over the next several quarters.

Consistent Revenue Growth & International Expansion

Steady multi‑year top‑line growth and rapid international adoption indicate scalable commercial demand for imagery and analytics. Diversified geographic revenue reduces country‑specific risk and supports sustainable subscription and contract renewals, improving revenue durability beyond short sales cycles.

Backlog and Strengthened Liquidity

A sizeable contracted backlog and ample liquidity provide multi‑period revenue visibility and capital to fund Gen‑3 deployment and R&D. This reduces near‑term funding risk, enables execution of planned launches and product rollouts, and supports predictable conversion of bookings into subscription revenue.

Negative Factors

Negative Operating Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow means the business consumes cash to run and scale. Even with current liquidity, continued cash burn requires either capital raises or slower investment, creating dilution or execution risk if revenue convertability or margin improvements slip.

Sustained Net Losses & Margin Volatility

Large negative net margins and inconsistent gross‑margin reporting highlight difficulty converting revenue into sustainable profits. Margin volatility raises uncertainty about long‑term operating leverage and the timing of durable profitability, limiting return prospects absent structural cost or pricing improvements.

Lumpy Revenue & Government Funding Exposure

Milestone‑based and sovereign contracts create revenue timing variability and long sales cycles, complicating cash conversion and forecasting. Dependence on government appropriations adds policy/timing risk that can delay bookings converting to recognized revenue and stress near‑term liquidity.

BlackSky Technology Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BlackSky Technology Inc. provides geospatial intelligence, imagery and related data analytic products and services, and mission systems that include the development, integration, and operations of satellite and ground systems to commercial and government customers worldwide. The company processes a range of observations from its constellation, as well as various space, internet-of-things, and terrestrial based sensors and data feeds. Its products are used in government defense and intelligence; commercial, construction, and industrial; and catastrophe, climate, and environment applications. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

BlackSky primarily makes money by selling subscription-based and contract-based access to its geospatial intelligence products and services. A core revenue stream is recurring subscriptions (and multi-period contracts) that provide customers access to BlackSky’s satellite imagery, on-demand tasking/collection, and its analytics/software platform that enables alerting, monitoring, and delivery of finished geospatial intelligence outputs. In addition, the company generates revenue from professional services and solutions work tied to customer deployments (e.g., integration, customization, training, and analytic support) when these are bundled with or sold alongside platform access. BlackSky also earns revenue through government contracting, where agencies procure imagery access, monitoring services, or mission-focused analytic deliverables under contracted terms. Specific partnership details or revenue split by customer/segment: null.

BlackSky Technology Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and improved 2025 leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.16) support resilience, but the business still posts large net losses, negative operating cash flow, and consistently negative free cash flow. Margin data also shows volatility/uncertainty (e.g., 2025 gross margin reported at 0%), keeping the financial profile below average.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025 (rising from ~$21.1M to ~$106.6M), indicating improving commercial traction. However, profitability remains weak: the company is still generating sizable net losses (2025 net margin about -66%) and negative EBITDA margin (about -52% in 2025). Gross margin improved materially versus early years, but 2025 shows gross profit and gross margin reported at 0%, which likely reflects data/reporting noise and adds uncertainty to margin quality. Overall, strong top-line trajectory is outweighed by persistent losses and volatile margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved significantly in 2025, with total debt dropping to ~$15.5M and debt-to-equity falling to ~0.16, which is a meaningful de-risking versus 2024 (~1.24). Equity remains positive (~$94.9M), supporting balance-sheet flexibility. The key weakness is that losses are still eroding returns for shareholders (return on equity remains deeply negative, ~-74% in 2025), and prior years show higher leverage and ongoing balance-sheet pressure. Net/net: capital structure looks better today, but profitability-driven equity dilution/erosion risk remains.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a core issue: operating cash flow is negative across all years provided, including 2025 (~-$28.3M), and free cash flow is also consistently negative (2025 ~-$44.5M). While 2025 free cash flow improved versus 2024 (less negative) and the free cash flow change rate is positive, the business still consumes cash to operate and invest. Until operating cash flow turns positive, funding risk (raising capital or using cash reserves) remains a key overhang.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	106.58M	102.09M	94.49M	65.35M	34.09M
Gross Profit	40.93M	74.66M	60.71M	29.52M	-663.00K
EBITDA	-24.85M	-542.00K	434.00K	-32.11M	-224.52M
Net Income	-70.26M	-57.22M	-53.86M	-74.17M	-245.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	387.29M	254.15M	224.07M	234.09M	305.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	124.45M	52.46M	52.51M	72.16M	165.59M
Total Debt	15.52M	116.49M	87.16M	79.88M	71.46M
Total Liabilities	292.41M	160.16M	130.91M	112.22M	126.14M
Stockholders Equity	94.88M	93.99M	93.16M	121.87M	179.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-44.52M	-22.06M	-61.14M	-56.13M	-55.15M
Operating Cash Flow	-28.31M	-6.38M	-17.42M	-44.46M	-53.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-86.59M	-68.33M	-15.21M	-81.58M	-63.61M
Financing Cash Flow	144.08M	55.66M	29.05M	-5.05M	275.02M

BlackSky Technology Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 26.09
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKSY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.12, above the 50-day MA of 23.73, and above the 200-day MA of 20.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKSY.

BlackSky Technology Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LYTS	70 Outperform	$595.58M	22.22	10.90%	1.07%	22.35%	2.59%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
KULR	59 Neutral	$113.73M	-6.13	-20.63%	―	71.92%	31.84%
BKSY	56 Neutral	$965.19M	-193.07	-77.78%	―	-5.13%	-37.34%
KOPN	52 Neutral	$361.43M	23.27	-30.23%	―	3.02%	90.87%
SATL	47 Neutral	$512.89M	-59.38	9.32%	―	―	―
MVIS	45 Neutral	$205.01M	-1.68	-137.37%	―	-67.66%	13.39%

BlackSky Technology Corporate Events

BlackSky Reports Record 2025 Revenue and Growing Backlog

BlackSky reported on February 26, 2026 that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 16% year on year to $35.2 million and full-year revenue reached a record $106.6 million, driven largely by new Gen-3 satellite and services contracts. The company narrowed its Q4 net loss to $0.9 million, posted a second consecutive year of positive adjusted EBITDA, expanded backlog 32% to $345 million on strong international defense and subscription demand, and ended 2025 with $125.6 million in cash and reduced unbilled receivables, underpinning continued Gen-3 deployments and positioning it for further growth in 2026.

BlackSky’s 2025 operating profile showed higher cost of sales and cash operating expenses alongside stepped-up capital expenditures of $46.6 million as it invested in its Gen-3 constellation and advanced imagery capabilities. While full-year net loss widened to $70.3 million and adjusted EBITDA declined to $0.9 million, strong contract bookings, rapid conversion of pilot programs into long-term subscriptions and additional launch commitments suggest a scaling business model and improving visibility for stakeholders despite ongoing losses.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKSY) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackSky Technology stock, see the BKSY Stock Forecast page.