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BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
NYSE:BKSY
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BlackSky Technology
(NYSE:BKSY)
54Neutral
Positive Factors
Contract Wins
BlackSky has secured more than $150.0M in recent contract wins, reflecting increasing levels of consumer demand.
Revenue Growth
Long-term revenue growth is expected to be 20% per year with very low incremental operating expenses, enabling a doubling of EBITDA margins to ~45%.
Satellite Launch
The company successfully launched its first Gen-3 satellite and is already receiving positive feedback from customers on image quality.
Negative Factors
Earnings Guidance
FY25 EBITDA guidance initially looks ~$10M lower than Street expectations.
Industry Risks
Risks include dilution risk, high levels of industry competition, and customer concentration risk.
Revenue Shortfall
Shares of BlackSky Technology, Inc. declined 24.2% following softer than expected 4Q24 revenue.
BlackSky Technology (BKSY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$271.47M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.21
Revenue Growth8.04%
EPS Growth5.52%
CountryUS
Employees340
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength50
IndustryHardware, Equipment & Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.06
Shares Outstanding31,639,984
10 Day Avg. Volume916,076
30 Day Avg. Volume1,706,643
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.50
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)64.80
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.40Price Target Upside145.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
BlackSky Technology Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBlackSky Technology Inc. provides geospatial intelligence, imagery and related data analytic products and services, and mission systems that include the development, integration, and operations of satellite and ground systems to commercial and government customers worldwide. The company processes a range of observations from its constellation, as well as various space, internet-of-things, and terrestrial based sensors and data feeds. Its products are used in government defense and intelligence; commercial, construction, and industrial; and catastrophe, climate, and environment applications. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlackSky Technology Inc. generates revenue through a multi-faceted business model centered around its satellite imagery and data analytics services. Key revenue streams include the sale of high-resolution satellite images and subscription-based access to its geospatial intelligence platform. The company offers tiered service levels, enabling customers to access a range of data and analytical tools based on their specific needs. BlackSky also enters into strategic partnerships and contracts with government agencies and commercial entities, providing tailored solutions and services that further bolster its earnings. Additionally, the company's investment in technology and infrastructure, such as its growing constellation of small satellites, enhances its service offerings and competitive position in the market.
BlackSky Technology Financial Statement Overview
Summary
BlackSky Technology exhibits strong revenue growth but faces significant challenges in profitability and cash flow generation. The increased leverage and negative margins suggest potential risks that need addressing to improve financial health and stability. While there are positive revenue trends, the company must focus on cost management and cash flow improvement to enhance overall financial performance.Income Statement
The income statement shows significant revenue growth with a year-over-year increase of 13.49% from the previous annual period to the TTM. However, the company has struggled with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins, and a declining gross profit margin from 64.27% in 2023 to 38.69% in the TTM. Continued negative net income highlights ongoing challenges in managing expenses relative to revenue.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a moderately leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96 in the TTM, indicating a slight increase in leverage compared to the previous annual period. The equity ratio is stable at 44.91%, suggesting a balanced mix of equity and liabilities. However, the return on equity remains negative, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows a negative free cash flow growth rate, indicating challenges in generating positive cash flow from operations, despite improved operating cash flow in the TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, highlighting the company's struggle to convert revenue into cash flow effectively.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 107.23M | 94.49M | 65.35M | 65.35M | 34.09M | 13.71M |
| Gross Profit | |||||
| 41.50M | 60.71M | 29.52M | 29.52M | -663.00K | 2.22M |
| EBIT | |||||
| -48.13M | -55.98M | -86.55M | -86.55M | -120.14M | -264.35K |
| EBITDA | |||||
| 15.58M | 434.00K | -32.15M | -176.80M | -32.72M | -264.35K |
| Net Income Common Stockholders | |||||
| -41.64M | -53.86M | -74.34M | -74.34M | -152.19M | -7.21M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 53.13M | 52.51M | 72.16M | 72.16M | 165.59M | 1.08M |
| Total Assets | |||||
| 224.82M | 224.07M | 233.92M | 233.92M | 305.76M | 318.25M |
| Total Debt | |||||
| 87.16M | 87.16M | 79.35M | 79.35M | 71.46M | 120.01M |
| Net Debt | |||||
| 53.73M | 54.35M | 45.17M | 45.17M | -94.13M | 118.93M |
| Total Liabilities | |||||
| 131.66M | 130.91M | 112.22M | 112.22M | 126.14M | 33.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | |||||
| 93.16M | 93.16M | 121.70M | 121.70M | 179.62M | 285.09M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -47.99M | -61.14M | -56.13M | -56.13M | -55.15M | -767.57K |
| Operating Cash Flow | |||||
| -6.91M | -17.42M | -44.46M | -44.46M | -53.87M | -286.57K |
| Investing Cash Flow | |||||
| -27.74M | -15.21M | -81.58M | -81.58M | -63.61M | -316.25M |
| Financing Cash Flow | |||||
| 57.98M | 29.05M | -5.05M | -5.05M | 275.02M | 317.58M |
BlackSky Technology Technical Analysis
Negative
7.91
Price Trends
13.04
Negative
11.55
Negative
7.25
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.36
Negative
31.88
Neutral
27.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKSY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.65, below the 50-day MA of 13.04, and above the 200-day MA of 7.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BKSY.
BlackSky Technology Risk Analysis
BlackSky Technology disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BlackSky Technology reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BlackSky Technology Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $74.14B | 18.08 | 27.75% | 1.57% | 4.44% | 110.33% | |
70 Outperform | $3.21B | 31.38 | 15.40% | 1.86% | 5.05% | 632.38% | |
58 Neutral | $21.06B | 10.51 | -17.38% | 2.43% | 4.55% | -24.07% | |
57 Neutral | $274.98M | ― | -132.51% | ― | 24.15% | 35.73% | |
54 Neutral | $271.47M | ― | -60.94% | ― | 8.04% | 5.52% | |
52 Neutral | $1.12B | ― | -25.68% | ― | 10.72% | 16.19% | |
42 Neutral | $363.96M | ― | -118.08% | ― | ― | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BKSY
BlackSky Technology
7.91
6.56
485.93%
IRDM
Iridium Communications
27.54
2.07
8.13%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
512.19
48.81
10.53%
SPIR
Spire Global
8.19
-3.41
-29.40%
SATL
Satellogic
3.75
2.16
135.85%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
3.46
1.21
53.78%
BlackSky Technology Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -40.08% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a positive sentiment with significant achievements such as the successful launch of the Gen-3 satellite, substantial contract wins, and achieving positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time. Despite some challenges related to the LeoStella acquisition and slower ramp of the Luno contract, the company's outlook for 2025 is strong with expected revenue growth and continued market expansion.Highlights
Successful Launch of Gen-3 Satellite
The first Gen-3 satellite was successfully launched and began initial imaging operations within five days, exceeding customer expectations in image quality.
Major Contract Wins
BlackSky secured a seven-year contract valued at over $100 million with an existing international customer and $20 million in contracts with India for earth observation capabilities.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA
BlackSky achieved its first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024, amounting to $11.6 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $1 million in 2023.
Revenue Growth Forecast
The company forecasts total revenue growth of 30% for 2025, supported by strong backlog and new contract wins.
Expansion Into New Markets
Successful entry into the Indian market with significant contracts, marking an initial presence in a growing market.
Lowlights
Impact of LeoStella Acquisition on Expenses
The acquisition of LeoStella resulted in a $1.8 million increase in operating expenses due to the reclassification of previously capitalized costs.
Slower Ramp of Luno Contract
The transition of the NGA EIM contract into Luno took longer than expected, impacting imagery revenue growth.
Company Guidance
During the BlackSky Technology Q4 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance for 2025, forecasting a 30% year-over-year revenue growth with an expected revenue range of $125 million to $142 million. This growth is supported by a strong backlog, which increased to approximately $390 million following recent contract wins. The company anticipates full-year adjusted EBITDA to be between $14 million and $22 million. Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between $60 million to $70 million, driven by the ramp-up of Gen-3 satellite production and launches. BlackSky also highlighted its first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024 at $11.6 million, compared to a loss of $1 million in 2023, underscoring strong operating leverage and cost management.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.