BlackSky Technology (BKSY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $817.75M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.61
• Revenue Growth: -5.13%
• EPS Growth: -37.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 340
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Hardware, Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 35,992,596
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,266,310
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,427,287
• PEG Ratio: 0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.91
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -34.12
• 1Y Price Target: $27.50
• Price Target Upside: 21.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $133.27M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▼(-0.97% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and ongoing cash burn) despite strong revenue growth and improved leverage. Technicals are soft (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while earnings/corporate updates are moderately supportive due to contract wins, backlog growth, and improved liquidity/visibility, partially offset by cost pressures and continued losses.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Growth

Multi-year revenue expansion to ~$106.6M demonstrates durable commercial traction across customers and geographies. Steady top-line growth supports a subscription/contract model, improves unit economics as scale grows, and increases the odds of eventual margin recovery as fixed costs are absorbed.

Strong Backlog and Contract Wins

A large, growing backlog and recent >$60M awards, including international defense contracts, provide durable revenue visibility. Contracted demand for Gen-3 imagery and services supports recurring revenue conversion and reduces near-term sales risk while underpinning multi-period cash flow expectations.

Improved Capital Structure and Liquidity

Marked deleveraging and positive equity provide financial flexibility to fund Gen-3 deployment and AI investments. Lower debt reduces refinancing and interest burdens, enabling management to prioritize growth investments rather than immediate balance-sheet repairs, a durable improvement in solvency risk.

Negative Factors

Persistent Negative Cash Flow

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow indicates the business still consumes material cash to run and scale. Until operating cash conversion turns positive, the company faces recurring funding needs, raising dilution/refinancing risk that can constrain long-term strategic flexibility.

Ongoing Large Losses and Weak Margins

Deep negative margins and sizable net losses show the business has not yet translated revenue growth into profitability. Persistent operating losses erode returns and raise execution pressure: management must sustain growth while materially improving margins to make economics durable.

Elevated OpEx and CapEx from Integration and Buildout

Stepped-up operating and capital spending to integrate LeoStella and deploy Gen-3 satellites increases burn and delays free cash flow breakeven. These structural investment costs create near-to-medium-term margin pressure and heighten execution risk around timely operational synergies.

BlackSky Technology Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BlackSky Technology Inc. provides geospatial intelligence, imagery and related data analytic products and services, and mission systems that include the development, integration, and operations of satellite and ground systems to commercial and government customers worldwide. The company processes a range of observations from its constellation, as well as various space, internet-of-things, and terrestrial based sensors and data feeds. Its products are used in government defense and intelligence; commercial, construction, and industrial; and catastrophe, climate, and environment applications. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

BlackSky Technology generates revenue primarily through the sale of satellite imagery and geospatial analytics services. Its revenue model includes subscription-based offerings, where clients pay for ongoing access to data and analytics, as well as one-time purchases of specific imagery and reports. Key revenue streams also stem from contracts with government agencies and defense organizations that require high-resolution imagery for reconnaissance and surveillance purposes. Additionally, partnerships with technology firms and data integrators enhance its service offerings and market reach, contributing to revenue growth. The company may also explore collaborative projects and joint ventures to expand its capabilities and client base.

BlackSky Technology Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth (to ~$106.6M in 2025) and notably lower leverage in 2025 improve resilience, but the core fundamentals remain weak: sizable net losses, negative EBITDA, and consistently negative operating and free cash flow (2025 FCF about -$44.5M).

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025 (rising from ~$21.1M to ~$106.6M), indicating improving commercial traction. However, profitability remains weak: the company is still generating sizable net losses (2025 net margin about -66%) and negative EBITDA margin (about -52% in 2025). Gross margin improved materially versus early years, but 2025 shows gross profit and gross margin reported at 0%, which likely reflects data/reporting noise and adds uncertainty to margin quality. Overall, strong top-line trajectory is outweighed by persistent losses and volatile margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved significantly in 2025, with total debt dropping to ~$15.5M and debt-to-equity falling to ~0.16, which is a meaningful de-risking versus 2024 (~1.24). Equity remains positive (~$94.9M), supporting balance-sheet flexibility. The key weakness is that losses are still eroding returns for shareholders (return on equity remains deeply negative, ~-74% in 2025), and prior years show higher leverage and ongoing balance-sheet pressure. Net/net: capital structure looks better today, but profitability-driven equity dilution/erosion risk remains.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a core issue: operating cash flow is negative across all years provided, including 2025 (~-$28.3M), and free cash flow is also consistently negative (2025 ~-$44.5M). While 2025 free cash flow improved versus 2024 (less negative) and the free cash flow change rate is positive, the business still consumes cash to operate and invest. Until operating cash flow turns positive, funding risk (raising capital or using cash reserves) remains a key overhang.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	106.58M	102.09M	94.49M	65.35M	34.09M
Gross Profit	40.93M	74.66M	60.71M	29.52M	-663.00K
EBITDA	-24.85M	-542.00K	434.00K	-32.11M	-224.52M
Net Income	-70.26M	-57.22M	-53.86M	-74.17M	-245.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	387.29M	254.15M	224.07M	234.09M	305.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	124.45M	52.46M	52.51M	72.16M	165.59M
Total Debt	15.52M	116.49M	87.16M	79.88M	71.46M
Total Liabilities	292.41M	160.16M	130.91M	112.22M	126.14M
Stockholders Equity	94.88M	93.99M	93.16M	121.87M	179.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-44.52M	-22.06M	-61.14M	-56.13M	-55.15M
Operating Cash Flow	-28.31M	-6.38M	-17.42M	-44.46M	-53.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-86.59M	-68.33M	-15.21M	-81.58M	-63.61M
Financing Cash Flow	144.08M	55.66M	29.05M	-5.05M	275.02M

BlackSky Technology Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.72
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKSY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.32, below the 50-day MA of 22.74, and above the 200-day MA of 19.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKSY.

BlackSky Technology Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LYTS	70 Outperform	$646.01M	22.22	11.03%	1.07%	22.35%	2.59%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
KULR	59 Neutral	$129.26M	-6.13	-29.07%	―	71.92%	31.84%
KOPN	52 Neutral	$423.49M	23.27	-27.91%	―	3.02%	90.87%
BKSY	49 Neutral	$817.75M	-193.07	-74.40%	―	-5.13%	-37.34%
SATL	48 Neutral	$445.74M	―	―	―	―	―
MVIS	43 Neutral	$241.45M	-2.38	-112.89%	―	-67.66%	13.39%

BlackSky Technology Corporate Events

BlackSky Reports Record 2025 Revenue and Growing Backlog

BlackSky reported on February 26, 2026 that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 16% year on year to $35.2 million and full-year revenue reached a record $106.6 million, driven largely by new Gen-3 satellite and services contracts. The company narrowed its Q4 net loss to $0.9 million, posted a second consecutive year of positive adjusted EBITDA, expanded backlog 32% to $345 million on strong international defense and subscription demand, and ended 2025 with $125.6 million in cash and reduced unbilled receivables, underpinning continued Gen-3 deployments and positioning it for further growth in 2026.

BlackSky’s 2025 operating profile showed higher cost of sales and cash operating expenses alongside stepped-up capital expenditures of $46.6 million as it invested in its Gen-3 constellation and advanced imagery capabilities. While full-year net loss widened to $70.3 million and adjusted EBITDA declined to $0.9 million, strong contract bookings, rapid conversion of pilot programs into long-term subscriptions and additional launch commitments suggest a scaling business model and improving visibility for stakeholders despite ongoing losses.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKSY) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackSky Technology stock, see the BKSY Stock Forecast page.

BlackSky Technology Enters $100M Sales Agreement

On December 12, 2025, BlackSky Technology Inc. entered into a Sales Agreement with Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC to offer and sell up to $100 million of its Class A common stock. This agreement allows for sales through negotiated transactions or at-the-market offerings on the New York Stock Exchange, with the sales agents entitled to a 3% commission on gross proceeds. The move is part of BlackSky’s strategy to leverage its shelf registration statement filed with the SEC, potentially impacting its market positioning by increasing liquidity and capital availability.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKSY) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackSky Technology stock, see the BKSY Stock Forecast page.