BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
NYSE:BKSY
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BlackSky Technology
(NYSE:BKSY)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(11.79% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
Score is driven by strong technical uptrend and a constructive earnings update (raised 2026 revenue/adjusted EBITDA guidance and sizable backlog), partially offset by weak underlying financial performance marked by ongoing losses and significant cash burn. Valuation provides limited support given negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
High‑margin subscription economics
BlackSky's Gen‑3 subscription model targets ~80% gross margins, creating durable recurring revenue and strong unit economics. High gross margins support operating leverage as revenue scales, improving the path to sustained adjusted EBITDA and reducing sensitivity to cyclical imagery sales.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn and weak FCF
Trailing cash flow shows sustained negative operating cash flow and materially negative free cash flow, indicating the business still requires external funding to cover growth and capex. Persistent burn constrains strategic flexibility and creates dilution or financing risk until margins and cash conversion improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High‑margin subscription economics
BlackSky's Gen‑3 subscription model targets ~80% gross margins, creating durable recurring revenue and strong unit economics. High gross margins support operating leverage as revenue scales, improving the path to sustained adjusted EBITDA and reducing sensitivity to cyclical imagery sales.
Read all positive factors
BlackSky Technology (BKSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.55
Revenue Growth-8.93%
EPS Growth1.81%
CountryUS
Employees340
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryHardware, Equipment & Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.55
Shares Outstanding37,109,028
10 Day Avg. Volume2,496,654
30 Day Avg. Volume1,887,325
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.41
Price to Book (P/B)6.64
Price to Sales (P/S)5.91
P/FCF Ratio-14.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit28.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-110.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.36Price Target Upside-0.57% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$131.91M
BlackSky Technology Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BlackSky Technology Inc. provides geospatial intelligence, imagery and related data analytic products and services, and mission systems that include the development, integration, and operations of satellite and ground systems to commercial and gov...
How the Company Makes Money
BlackSky primarily makes money by selling access to its satellite imagery and analytics capabilities through recurring subscriptions and service contracts. A key revenue stream is its Spectra platform (a geospatial intelligence/analytics offering)...
BlackSky Technology Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability for BlackSky Technology and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability for BlackSky Technology and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBlackSky Technology Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management reported a clear operational inflection with Gen-3 fully operational, notable contract wins (including customer-funded R&D), raised revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, strong subscription economics (~80% gross margins) and a healthy cash/liquidity position. Lowlights center on the current modest Q1 revenue base, a Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss (-$5.1M), dependence on converting pilot programs (timing uncertainty) and some U.S. government funding visibility risk. On balance the positive operational milestones, guidance raises and strong margins outweigh the near-term challenges and execution/timing risks.Positive Updates
Contract Awards and Backlog Expansion
Company announced up to $160 million in contract awards year-to-date, including over $60 million in new Gen-3 awards and a major customer-funded AFRL contract worth up to $99 million. Backlog was $351 million as of March 31 (about $380 million including early April deals), with roughly $90 million expected to be recognized in 2026.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Profitability Still Challenged — Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $5.1 million (in line with expectations). While full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to a positive range ($12–$24 million), the company remains unprofitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Contract Awards and Backlog Expansion
Company announced up to $160 million in contract awards year-to-date, including over $60 million in new Gen-3 awards and a major customer-funded AFRL contract worth up to $99 million. Backlog was $351 million as of March 31 (about $380 million including early April deals), with roughly $90 million expected to be recognized in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BlackSky raised 2026 guidance, increasing revenue to $130–$150 million (up from $120–$145M) — a >30% growth rate at the midpoint vs. 2025 — and raising adjusted EBITDA to $12–$24 million (from $6–$18M), implying a ~13% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint; they reaffirmed capital expenditures of $50–$60 million. Supporting metrics: Q1 revenue was $20.8 million with a Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.1 million, cash CapEx of $15.8 million for the quarter, cash/restricted/short‑term investments of $117.5 million and total liquidity >$195 million, year‑to‑date contract awards of up to $160 million, backlog of ~$351 million as of March 31 (rising to ~$380M including early‑April wins) with about $90 million expected to be recognized in 2026, and a plan to reach a >$100 million annual run rate for space‑based intelligence & AI services (projected >50% growth in 2026) with ~80% gross margins; operational progress (4 Gen‑3 satellites live, target ≥8 this year) and delivery timelines (<40 minutes including AI processing) underpin the outlook.BlackSky Technology Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 97.81M | 106.58M | 102.09M | 94.49M | 65.35M | 34.09M |
| Gross Profit | 50.66M | 71.27M | 74.66M | 60.71M | 29.52M | -663.00K |
| EBITDA | -13.09M | -24.23M | -542.00K | 434.00K | -32.11M | -224.52M |
| Net Income | -87.11M | -70.26M | -57.22M | -53.86M | -74.17M | -245.64M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 371.75M | 387.29M | 254.15M | 224.07M | 234.09M | 305.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 115.52M | 124.45M | 52.46M | 52.51M | 72.16M | 165.59M |
| Total Debt | 16.76M | 15.52M | 116.49M | 87.16M | 79.88M | 71.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 290.94M | 292.41M | 160.16M | 130.91M | 112.22M | 126.14M |
| Stockholders Equity | 80.81M | 94.88M | 93.99M | 93.16M | 121.87M | 179.62M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -85.41M | -44.52M | -22.06M | -61.14M | -56.13M | -55.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -57.91M | -28.31M | -6.38M | -17.42M | -44.46M | -53.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -71.78M | -86.59M | -68.33M | -15.21M | -81.58M | -63.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 149.21M | 144.08M | 55.66M | 29.05M | -5.05M | 275.02M |
BlackSky Technology Technical Analysis
Positive
37.57
Price Trends
25.61
Positive
23.54
Positive
21.95
Positive
Market Momentum
3.17
Negative
66.08
Neutral
78.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKSY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.24, above the 50-day MA of 25.61, and above the 200-day MA of 21.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKSY.
BlackSky Technology Risk Analysis
BlackSky Technology disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BlackSky Technology reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BlackSky Technology Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $764.63M | 82.82 | 8.90% | 1.07% | 11.42% | 5.37% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $1.46B | -7.67 | -98.63% | ― | -8.93% | 1.81% | |
55 Neutral | $992.00M | 156.37 | 8.04% | ― | -21.88% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.08B | -42.67 | 12.97% | ― | ― | ― | |
47 Neutral | $133.63M | -0.66 | -49.95% | ― | 50.60% | -86.17% | |
45 Neutral | $218.59M | -1.68 | -137.37% | ― | -74.28% | 24.53% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BKSY
BlackSky Technology
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242.45%
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BlackSky Technology Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
BlackSky Technology consolidates financial leadership after Ward resignation
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
BlackSky Technology Inc. announced that on April 2, 2026, Senior Vice President, Controller, and Principal Accounting Officer Tracy Ward tendered her resignation, effective April 24, 2026, to pursue another opportunity, with the company stating he...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
BlackSky Reports Record 2025 Revenue and Growing Backlog
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
BlackSky reported on February 26, 2026 that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 16% year on year to $35.2 million and full-year revenue reached a record $106.6 million, driven largely by new Gen-3 satellite and services contracts. The company narrowe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.