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Aytu BioScience Inc (AYTU)
NASDAQ:AYTU

Aytu BioScience (AYTU) AI Stock Analysis

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AYTU

Aytu BioScience

(NASDAQ:AYTU)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(8.70% Upside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (revenue contraction, continuing losses, negative free cash flow, and rising leverage). Technicals add a near-term bearish tilt (below 20/50-day averages with weak momentum). Offsetting factors are a moderately constructive earnings-call outlook driven by early EXXUA launch traction and spend discipline, while valuation remains constrained due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
First-in-class EXXUA launch
EXXUA’s differentiated 5-HT1A mechanism creates a durable commercial opportunity in MDD by addressing unmet needs (non-responders and side-effect intolerant patients). A unique, approved therapy supports longer-term market access, clinician adoption, and portfolio diversification versus legacy ADHD/pediatric reliance.
Patient access & distribution strength
Aytu’s RxConnect program materially improves patient affordability, distribution control and payer engagement, reducing friction for branded uptake. Durable access infrastructure supports sustained prescription flow, better adherence economics, and improved launch scalability across channels and payers over months to years.
Resilient ADHD revenue base
Aytu retains a sizable, relatively stable ADHD revenue stream that provides recurring cash inflow while EXXUA scales. This legacy franchise cushions near-term variability, funds commercialization, and offers a fallback revenue runway even as management rebalances promotional focus to new product launches.
Negative Factors
Revenue contraction & negative cash flow
Persistent revenue decline and negative operating/free cash flow reduce internal funding capacity and heighten dependence on external capital. Over 2–6 months this constrains sustained launch investment, increases dilution risk, and limits the company’s ability to absorb slower-than-expected EXXUA uptake or payer delays.
Eroding equity & higher leverage
Rising leverage and diminished shareholder equity weaken financial flexibility and increase refinancing and covenant risk. In a specialty pharma model that needs upfront commercial spend, a strained balance sheet amplifies vulnerability to reimbursement setbacks and limits optionality for acquisitions or supplemental funding.
Operating losses and negative adjusted EBITDA
Operating costs continue to outstrip gross profit despite solid unit margins, keeping the business structurally unprofitable. Sustained negative EBITDA means sizable net-revenue gains are required to reach breakeven, increasing execution risk if EXXUA uptake or ADHD stabilization underperform expectations.

Aytu BioScience (AYTU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Aytu BioScience Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAytu Biopharma, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing novel therapeutics and consumer healthcare products the United States and internationally. The company offers Adzenys XR-ODT for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in patients from 6 years and older; Cotempla XR-ODT for the treatment of ADHD in patients from 6 to 17 years old; and Adzenys ER, an oral suspension for the treatment of ADHD in patients from 6 years and older. It also provides Karbinal ER, a carbinoxamine oral suspension for the treatment of seasonal and perennial allergies; Poly-Vi-Flor and Tri-Vi-Flor prescription supplements for infants and children for the treatment of fluoride deficiency; Tuzistra XR, a prescription antitussive consisting of codeine polistirex and chlorpheniramine polistirex in an oral suspension; and ZolpiMist, an oral spray for the treatment of insomnia. The company was formerly known as Aytu BioScience, Inc. and changed its name to Aytu Biopharma, Inc. in March 2021. Aytu Biopharma, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyAytu BioScience generates revenue through the sale of its pharmaceutical products and diagnostic tests. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes direct sales of its proprietary products, as well as partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies for co-promotion and distribution. Key revenue streams are derived from product sales in the urology and pediatric markets, where Aytu has established a presence. Additionally, the company may benefit from licensing agreements, collaborations, and research grants that contribute to its financial performance. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and institutions also play a crucial role in expanding its market reach and enhancing sales.

Aytu BioScience Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Product
Revenue by Product
Shows how much revenue each product contributes, highlighting best-sellers and potential areas for growth or concern based on product performance.
Chart InsightsAytu BioScience's ADHD portfolio remains a key revenue driver, although stability concerns persist due to potential generic competition. The pediatric portfolio has shown signs of recovery, aligning with the company's growth strategy, despite an impairment expense. The 'Other' category has faced significant declines, possibly due to strategic shifts. The upcoming launch of ExuA for major depressive disorder is expected to bolster Aytu’s market position, potentially offsetting challenges in existing portfolios. Management is optimistic about leveraging the Aytu RxConnect platform for ExuA's market penetration, aiming to enhance overall revenue growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

Aytu BioScience Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: strong strategic and commercial progress with the ExuA launch (first-in-class therapy, >100 prescribers, RxConnect-enabled access, and supply readiness) and resilient ADHD performance are meaningful positives. However, near-term financials show declines in net revenue, gross margin pressure (partly from a $600k write-down), higher operating spend for launch, a negative adjusted EBITDA, and a substantial reported net loss driven largely by an $8.2M non-cash derivative warrant loss. Early ExuA metrics are encouraging but limited by short launch duration and weather-related field disruption; cash levels are adequate but have declined modestly. Overall, positives around product launch and access are counterbalanced by near-term financial headwinds and potential generic risk.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Commercial Launch of ExuA — First-in-Class 5-HT1A Agonist
Launched ExuA (first and only FDA-approved 5-HT1A agonist for MDD); commercial launch underway with early commercial activity and multi-channel promotional plan.
Early Prescription and Prescriber Adoption
Over 100 doctors have prescribed ExuA and scripts have been written from 27 states in the first ~30 days; first refills already appearing and early patient feedback reported as positive and well tolerated.
RxConnect Driven Access and Coverage
Aytu RxConnect platform supporting patient access (caps out-of-pocket at $50 for commercially insured), guiding payer contracting that currently covers ~60% of commercially insured MDD patients; RxConnect dispenses ~85% of branded ADHD prescriptions, demonstrating distribution/patient channel strength.
ADHD Portfolio Resiliency
ADHD net revenue of $13.2M for the quarter, only a slight decrease from prior year ($13.8M, down ~4.3%) and essentially flat sequentially versus Q1, despite Salesforce reprioritization and recent ANDA entry by Teva.
Pediatric Revenue Sequential Improvement
Pediatric portfolio net revenue increased sequentially from $0.715M in Q1 to $1.7M in Q2 (approximately +138% sequential), indicating stabilization after prior-quarter returns reduction.
Launch Spend Efficiency
Initial ExuA launch budget reduced from $10M to under $8M due to execution efficiencies; one-time launch costs estimated ~ $3M of the ~$8M.
Supply Readiness and Scalability
Management reports adequate supply and API/components on hand at contract manufacturer to scale substantially beyond initial production runs if demand exceeds expectations.
Negative Updates
Total Net Revenue Decline
Net revenue of $15.2M for the quarter vs $16.2M prior year, a decline of $1.0M (≈ -6.2% year-over-year).
Gross Margin Compression and Inventory Write-Down
Reported gross margin decreased to 63.5% from 66.5% (a -3.0 percentage point decline). A $600k inventory write-down related to branded Adzenys reduced gross margin; excluding the write-down gross margin would have been 67.4%.
Large Net Loss Driven by Non-Cash Derivative Loss
Net loss of $10.6M (EPS -$1.05) vs prior year net income of $0.8M (EPS $0.13). Quarter impacted by an $8.2M derivative warrant liability loss (non-cash) vs a $3.0M gain in the year-ago period; swing materially increased reported loss.
Adjusted EBITDA Turned Negative
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $0.8M compared to positive $1.3M in the prior year period, driven by increased ExuA launch investments and lower net revenue from deemphasized legacy portfolios.
Operating Expense Increase
Operating expenses (ex. amortization and restructuring) were $11.1M vs $10.2M prior year (≈ +8.8%), reflecting increased launch investment for ExuA and a one-time FDA PDUFA fee of $400k.
Impact of Generic Competition on ADHD Brand
Teva launched an ANDA for Adzenys mid-December; six-week data: Teva generic ~5% of prescriptions, Aytu authorized generic ~20% and remaining volume branded — continued generic risk could pressure future ADHD revenue despite RxConnect protections.
Cash and Capital Structure Considerations
Cash and cash equivalents declined from $32.6M to $30.0M (≈ -8.0%) sequentially; 10.7M common shares outstanding plus 8.8M prefunded warrants (total ~19.5M effective) present dilution and create volatile non-cash derivative liabilities tied to stock price.
Company Guidance
The company guided that ExuA commercialization will begin with a small initial net-revenue ramp in the March quarter—scripts are expected to grow ahead of net revenue because RxConnect guarantees month‑1 and month‑2 supplies at no cost for commercially insured patients (those guarantees begin to be removed in June as month‑3 refills occur)—and advised modelers to assume gross margins in the mid‑ to high‑60% range (management cites a simplified ~31% COGS / ~69% gross contribution margin reflecting a 28% royalty plus true‑up). Launch spend was trimmed from an initial $10.0M plan to under $8.0M (about $3.0M of which are one‑time items), near‑term OpEx in March is expected to be roughly $4.0M–$5.0M (excluding D&A), and the company expects to exit the fiscal year at an ~ $11.6M quarterly normalized OpEx run‑rate (with ~ $0.5M in non‑cash items). Management said breakeven is around $17.3M of net revenue per quarter (all‑in) and cash breakeven about $16.6M/quarter; cash was $30.0M at 12/31/2025. For context, Q2 net revenue was $15.2M (ADHD $13.2M; pediatric $1.7M), gross margin was 63.5% (67.4% excluding a ~$600k inventory write‑down), adjusted EBITDA was –$0.8M, net loss was $10.6M (–$1.05/share) driven in part by an $8.2M derivative warrant liability loss, and the share count footprint is ~10.7M common shares plus 8.8M prefunded warrants (≈19.5M effective).

Aytu BioScience Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial statements indicate a pressured profile: sharply weaker TTM revenue, ongoing operating and net losses, and negative operating/free cash flow. Balance-sheet risk is elevated as equity has eroded and leverage has risen, increasing dependence on improved execution and/or external funding despite relatively strong gross margins.
Income Statement
22
Negative
AYTU’s revenue trend has weakened materially, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue down sharply versus the prior annual periods. While gross margin remains relatively strong in TTM (about two-thirds of revenue) and improved versus the 2021–2023 range, the business is still structurally unprofitable: TTM operating results and net income are meaningfully negative, and profitability has deteriorated versus FY2025 (annual) where losses were smaller. The key strength is the ability to generate solid gross profit on sales; the key weakness is that operating costs and other expenses continue to overwhelm that gross profit, keeping margins deeply negative.
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Leverage has increased and the equity base has eroded. Total debt is roughly flat recently, but stockholders’ equity declined notably from FY2025 (annual) to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which pushed debt-to-equity higher (now well above 1x). Return on equity remains significantly negative, reflecting ongoing losses and pressure on shareholder capital. A positive is that the company still reports a meaningful asset base; the primary risk is rising balance-sheet strain as losses reduce equity, making the capital structure less resilient.
Cash Flow
27
Negative
Cash generation remains a concern. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative, and free cash flow fell meaningfully versus the most recent annual period, even if the absolute cash burn is smaller than the very large outflows seen in earlier years. One relative positive is that cash burn has moderated substantially from FY2021–FY2022 levels; however, the business is still not self-funding, and persistent negative free cash flow increases dependence on external capital or balance-sheet flexibility.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue66.38M65.18M107.40M96.67M65.63M
Gross Profit45.83M49.05M66.63M50.28M29.20M
EBITDA-4.67M1.41M-3.27M-27.96M-29.04M
Net Income-13.56M-15.84M-17.05M-108.78M-58.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets124.18M118.86M137.84M137.62M265.67M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments30.95M20.01M22.98M19.36M49.65M
Total Debt22.94M16.42M30.43M18.19M30.97M
Total Liabilities105.21M91.14M98.48M93.31M128.10M
Stockholders Equity18.97M27.72M39.36M44.31M137.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-5.17M-1.72M-5.13M-28.82M-25.96M
Operating Cash Flow-1.94M-1.39M-5.13M-28.82M-25.96M
Investing Cash Flow-2.56M-329.00K-117.00K-3.25M-2.78M
Financing Cash Flow15.44M-1.26M8.87M1.53M30.31M

Aytu BioScience Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.30
Price Trends
50DMA
2.49
Negative
100DMA
2.33
Negative
200DMA
2.18
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
36.82
Neutral
STOCH
32.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AYTU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.63, below the 50-day MA of 2.49, and above the 200-day MA of 2.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AYTU.

Aytu BioScience Risk Analysis

Aytu BioScience disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aytu BioScience reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Aytu BioScience Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
$26.04M83.910.27%75.19%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
50
Neutral
$27.69M-0.24-37.38%-22.60%53.82%
45
Neutral
$25.22M-0.60-50.23%-15.61%-68.96%
40
Underperform
$17.52M-0.62-63.82%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AYTU
Aytu BioScience
2.30
0.64
38.55%
TXMD
TherapeuticsMD
2.19
1.18
116.83%
COSM
Cosmos Holdings
0.44
-0.28
-39.20%
FLGC
Flora Growth
11.48
-24.01
-67.65%
GELS
Gelteq Limited
0.80
-1.47
-64.76%

Aytu BioScience Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Aytu BioPharma Highlights EXXUA Opportunity at Investor Day
Positive
Jan 20, 2026

On January 20, 2026, Aytu BioPharma held an Investor Day in New York City, with in-person and webcast participation, to spotlight the commercial and clinical opportunity for EXXUA (gepirone) extended-release tablets, which had been launched the prior month as the first FDA-approved 5HT1a agonist for major depressive disorder. Key opinion leaders in psychiatry and company executives reviewed EXXUA’s differentiated mechanism of action compared with traditional SSRIs and SNRIs, underscoring its targeted 5HT1a activity and lack of activity at receptors associated with sexual dysfunction and weight gain, and they presented Phase 3 data showing statistically significant improvements in depression scores versus placebo, early onset of remission benefits, and a generally favorable safety and tolerability profile. The event framed EXXUA as a potential alternative for the large share of MDD patients who either fail first-line therapies or discontinue due to side effects, signaling Aytu’s bid to strengthen its position in the CNS depression market and highlighting a potentially important new treatment option for clinicians and patients confronting high rates of non-remission, functional impairment, and treatment-related sexual and weight side effects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AYTU) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aytu BioScience stock, see the AYTU Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Aytu BioScience Stockholders Approve Key Proposals
Neutral
Dec 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. During this meeting, stockholders voted on three key proposals. All incumbent directors standing for reelection were successfully elected by a majority vote. Additionally, the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, was ratified. Lastly, the stockholders approved the executive compensation proposal through a non-binding advisory vote.

The most recent analyst rating on (AYTU) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aytu BioScience stock, see the AYTU Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 05, 2026