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Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM)
NASDAQ:AXSM
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Axsome Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AXSM)
51Neutral
Positive Factors
Earnings
Year-over-year TRx growth for Auvelity has increased to 83%.
Patent Settlement
AXSM announced a patent litigation settlement with Hikma Pharmaceuticals for Sunosi, marking a third successful patent litigation outcome regarding Sunosi.
Negative Factors
Market Performance
A slight slowdown for Auvelity was observed in Week 123.
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth42.53%
EPS Growth-15.29%
CountryUS
Employees683
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength77
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.00
Shares Outstanding48,765,404
10 Day Avg. Volume724,645
30 Day Avg. Volume1,022,531
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)15.45
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-56.80
P/FCF Ratio244.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$173.50Price Target Upside46.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAxsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The company is engaged in the development of a diverse portfolio of product candidates, aiming to address unmet medical needs in depression, migraine, narcolepsy, and other CNS conditions. Axsome's innovative approach leverages insights into the biology of CNS disorders to develop differentiated therapeutics.
How the Company Makes MoneyAxsome Therapeutics primarily generates revenue through the commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model is based on the sale of its CNS disorder therapies, which are distributed through various channels, including partnerships with healthcare providers and institutions. Axsome also engages in strategic collaborations and licensing agreements with other companies to enhance its product offerings and expand market reach. Additionally, the company may receive milestone payments and royalties from co-development and licensing deals, which contribute to its earnings.
Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Axsome Therapeutics shows strong revenue growth but is hindered by persistent unprofitability and financial instability. The company continues to experience high net losses and negative cash flow, with significant reliance on external financing. High liabilities and deteriorating equity further exacerbate financial concerns.Income Statement
Axsome Therapeutics has demonstrated significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with a revenue increase from $50 million in 2022 to $385 million in 2024. However, the company remains unprofitable, with net losses increasing from $239 million in 2023 to $287 million in 2024. Gross profit margins are healthy, but negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight ongoing operational inefficiencies and high costs relative to revenue.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a high level of liabilities compared to equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio rising as equity shrinks significantly. The company's total liabilities have increased over time, and stockholders' equity has deteriorated from $191 million in 2023 to $57 million in 2024, indicating potential financial instability. The equity ratio remains low, suggesting potential risk in financial structure.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Axsome Therapeutics' cash flow statement indicates challenges, with no positive operating cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow has remained negative, highlighting cash burn issues. The company has relied heavily on financing activities, shown by significant financing cash flows, but lacks consistent free cash flow generation to support operations independently.35
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 385.69M | 270.60M | 50.04M | 0.00 | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| 352.39M | 244.53M | 44.84M | -1.16M | -77.72K | EBIT |
| -280.56M | -231.82M | -176.50M | -124.71M | -99.14M | EBITDA |
| -280.56M | -224.99M | -174.23M | -123.55M | -99.06M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -287.22M | -239.24M | -197.77M | -134.94M | -105.39M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 315.35M | 386.19M | 200.84M | 86.47M | 183.88M | Total Assets |
| 568.50M | 588.24M | 331.48M | -338.36M | 186.13M | Total Debt |
| 191.53M | 186.37M | 94.68M | 49.71M | 50.12M | Net Debt |
| -123.82M | -199.82M | -106.16M | -36.76M | -133.75M | Total Liabilities |
| 511.48M | 397.26M | 221.92M | 70.84M | 72.34M | Stockholders Equity |
| 57.02M | 190.98M | 109.56M | -409.20M | -278.80M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -128.68M | -145.66M | -117.21M | -108.53M | -78.50M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -128.41M | -145.08M | -116.51M | -108.23M | -78.46M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -270.00K | -582.00K | -53.70M | -307.55K | -45.89K | Financing Cash Flow |
| 57.84M | 331.01M | 284.58M | 11.13M | 42.41M |
Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Positive
118.78
Price Trends
109.23
Positive
101.33
Positive
92.72
Positive
Market Momentum
2.72
Positive
48.22
Neutral
17.95
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 118.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.56, above the 50-day MA of 109.23, and above the 200-day MA of 92.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXSM.
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Axsome Therapeutics disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axsome Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $2.87B | 12.64 | 38.89% | ― | 31.85% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $13.96B | ― | -8.58% | ― | 46.62% | 50.50% | |
68 Neutral | $11.05B | 33.69 | 14.16% | ― | 24.81% | 33.67% | |
51 Neutral | $5.79B | ― | -231.63% | ― | 42.53% | -15.29% | |
49 Neutral | $7.00B | >-0.01 | -53.72% | 2.41% | 24.70% | -2.97% | |
47 Neutral | $785.60M | ― | -23.34% | ― | 47.92% | 17.84% | |
43 Neutral | $446.97M | ― | -63.37% | ― | -52.30% | 27.13% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics
119.50
50.11
72.22%
ACAD
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
17.19
-2.79
-13.96%
NBIX
Neurocrine
107.22
-30.52
-22.16%
PRTA
Prothena
13.75
-13.79
-50.07%
ITCI
Intra-Cellular Therapies
131.24
66.87
103.88%
SAGE
SAGE Therapeutics
7.40
-12.95
-63.64%
Axsome Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 18, 2025 | % Change Since: -9.43% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Axsome Therapeutics showed strong revenue growth and significant progress in its product pipeline, including new product approvals. However, the company continued to face high net losses and operating expenses, along with challenges in market access and pricing pressures. The overall sentiment of the call is optimistic about future growth, yet tempered by these financial challenges.Highlights
Strong Revenue Growth
Axsome reported total net product revenue of $386 million for 2024, reflecting high double-digit year-over-year growth for Auvelity and Sunosi. Auvelity net product sales were $92.6 million for Q4, representing an 89% year-over-year growth.
Product Approvals and Pipeline Progress
Received US approval of Symbravo on January 30th as a novel oral acute treatment for migraine. Completed Phase 3 clinical programs for AXS-05 and AXS-12, with plans to submit NDAs in the second half of 2025.
Commercial Success and Expansion
For Auvelity, approximately 158,000 prescriptions were filled in Q4, representing 10% quarter-over-quarter growth. The company completed its second salesforce expansion for Auvelity to support continued growth.
Cash Position and Financial Guidance
Ended 2024 with $315.4 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company believes this is sufficient to fund operations into cash flow positivity.
Lowlights
Net Loss Despite Revenue Growth
Reported a net loss of $74.9 million for Q4 and $287.2 million for the full year of 2024. The losses include significant non-cash charges and increased expenses related to R&D and commercialization activities.
High Operating Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses were $113.3 million for Q4 2024, up from $86.8 million in the same period in 2023, due to commercialization activities and personnel costs.
Challenges in Market Access and Pricing Pressure
Anticipated GTN discounts for Auvelity and Sunosi to be in the mid-50%s due to negative seasonality effects in Q1. High rebating environment expected for Symbravo in migraine market.
Company Guidance
During the Axsome Therapeutics fourth quarter and full year 2024 conference call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics. Total net product revenue for 2024 was $386 million, with Auvelity contributing $291.4 million, reflecting an 89% year-over-year increase for the fourth quarter. Sunosi's net product revenue was $94.3 million for the year, growing 16% year-over-year in Q4. The company anticipates continued growth in 2025 supported by a salesforce expansion for Auvelity. They also highlighted the recent US approval of Symbravo for migraine treatment and plan to commercialize it soon. In terms of clinical progress, Axsome completed Phase 3 trials for AXS-05 in Alzheimer's disease agitation and AXS-12 for narcolepsy, with NDAs planned for the second half of 2025. They expect topline readouts from several Phase 3 trials in early 2025. The company reported a net loss of $287.2 million for 2024 and ended the year with $315.4 million in cash, sufficient to fund operations into cash flow positivity.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.