Prothena (PRTA) AI Stock Analysis

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Prothena

(NASDAQ:PRTA)

47Neutral

Prothena faces significant challenges, particularly in financial performance with ongoing losses and cash flow issues. While its strategic partnerships and robust pipeline offer potential, the dependency on clinical trial successes and recent technical weakness suggest caution. Its valuation metrics further reinforce a cautious approach due to negative earnings and lack of dividends.

Positive Factors

Drug Efficacy

Birtamimab might lead to a 50% reduction in mortality in the Mayo Stage four patients.

Market Opportunity

AL amyloidosis could represent an attractive opportunity given the high unmet need.

Negative Factors

Clinical Validation

Significant clinical validation is still needed to better understand the efficacy and safety of PRX012.

Study Results

The Phase 2b PADOVA study narrowly missed the statistical significance in the primary endpoint of time to confirmed motor progression.

Prothena (PRTA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$552.26M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)534.15K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.20

Revenue Growth47.92%

EPS Growth17.84%

CountryUS

Employees163

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength74

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-2.30

Shares Outstanding53,826,980

10 Day Avg. Volume662,450

30 Day Avg. Volume534,151

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)5.17

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-3.70

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$54.57

Price Target Upside463.16% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Prothena Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionProthena Corporation plc, a late-stage clinical company, focuses on discovery and development of novel therapies for life-threatening diseases in the United States. The company is involved in developing Birtamimab, an investigational humanized antibody that is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of AL amyloidosis; Prasinezumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody, which is in Phase IIb clinical trial for the treatment of Parkinson's disease; PRX004 that completed Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of Transthyretin amyloidosis; and PRX005, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Its discovery and preclinical programs include PRX012 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease; and dual Aß-Tau vaccine for the treatment and prevention of Alzheimer's disease. Prothena Corporation plc has a license, development, and commercialization agreement with F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. and Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. to develop and commercialize antibodies that target alpha-synuclein; and a collaboration agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb to develop antibodies. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes MoneyProthena makes money through a combination of collaborations, licensing agreements, and milestone payments related to its research and development efforts. The company enters into strategic partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies to co-develop and commercialize its drug candidates. These partnerships typically involve upfront payments and funding for research and development activities. Additionally, Prothena may receive milestone payments upon achieving specific clinical, regulatory, and sales targets. Given the nature of the biotechnology industry, the company's revenue is heavily dependent on the successful development and commercialization of its therapeutic candidates, as well as its ability to secure favorable partnership agreements.

Prothena Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Prothena's financials reflect a company in transition, with revenue growth overshadowed by persistent profitability challenges. Despite a healthy equity position, cash flow issues and negative returns on equity highlight the need for strategic adjustments to enhance financial performance and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Negative

Prothena has shown inconsistent revenue growth, with a significant increase in the most recent year but previously declining revenue. The gross profit margin is positive, yet the company has consistently reported negative net income, resulting in negative net profit and EBIT margins. These suggest ongoing operational challenges and profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company maintains a solid equity base relative to its liabilities, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio. However, the negative return on equity indicates that the company is not currently generating profits from its shareholders' investment. The equity ratio remains strong, supporting financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Prothena faced challenges in generating positive operating cash flow, with negative free cash flow indicating a reliance on external financing. The ratio of operating cash flow to net income highlights operational inefficiencies, while fluctuations in free cash flow growth suggest inconsistent cash management.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
135.16M	91.37M	53.91M	200.58M	853.00K
	Gross Profit
135.16M	-129.20M	47.16M	118.29M	-74.03M
	EBIT
-154.56M	-191.04M	-131.56M	71.97M	-112.73M
	EBITDA
-154.56M	-190.11M	-131.56M	71.97M	-111.22M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-122.31M	-147.03M	-116.95M	66.97M	-111.14M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
471.39M	618.83M	710.41M	579.09M	295.38M
	Total Assets
547.11M	696.38M	758.03M	609.37M	332.98M
	Total Debt
10.84M	11.84M	6.47M	12.33M	17.84M
	Net Debt
-460.55M	-607.00M	-703.93M	-566.77M	-277.54M
	Total Liabilities
60.18M	135.02M	135.99M	143.32M	148.97M
	Stockholders Equity
486.93M	561.37M	622.04M	466.04M	184.01M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-150.35M	-136.72M	-109.28M	92.03M	-80.56M
	Operating Cash Flow
-150.05M	-133.91M	-108.82M	92.61M	-80.36M
	Investing Cash Flow
-298.00K	-2.77M	-464.00K	-575.00K	-196.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
1.55M	45.10M	241.46M	190.33M	215.00K

Prothena Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.69

Price Trends

50DMA

13.60

Negative

100DMA

14.01

Negative

200DMA

17.02

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.55

Positive

RSI

34.08

Neutral

STOCH

32.77

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRTA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.21, below the 50-day MA of 13.60, and below the 200-day MA of 17.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PRTA.

Prothena Risk Analysis

Prothena disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Prothena reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Prothena Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (48)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.36B	1.28	-45.04%	2.64%	19.24%	1.69%
PRTA	47 Neutral	$552.26M	―	-23.34%	―	47.92%	17.84%
KALV	45 Neutral	$537.92M	―	-150.50%	―	―	-18.75%
BCAX	41 Neutral	$567.04M	―	34.94%	―	―	―
REPL	40 Neutral	$562.98M	―	-50.50%	―	―	4.28%
IMNM	40 Underperform	$539.96M	―	-194.63%	―	-35.50%	3.81%
RCKT	34 Underperform	$575.80M	―	-54.14%	―	―	6.99%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PRTA

Prothena

9.69

-13.59

-58.38%

RCKT

Rocket Pharmaceuticals

4.94

-20.34

-80.46%

KALV

KalVista Pharmaceuticals

10.54

-1.56

-12.89%

REPL

Replimune Group

6.92

-0.27

-3.76%

IMNM

Immunome

6.20

-14.82

-70.50%

BCAX

Bicara Therapeutics Inc.

10.15

-15.26

-60.06%

Prothena Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -36.46% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presents a balanced outlook for Prothena. While there are significant opportunities for growth through its robust portfolio and strategic partnerships, challenges remain, particularly with the dependency on future clinical trial successes and the narrow miss in prasinezumab's statistical significance.

Highlights

Robust Portfolio and Strategic Partnerships

Prothena has a robust portfolio with four wholly-owned and four partnered programs across various stages of clinical development, allowing strategic collaborations to advance treatments while maintaining financial benefits.

Birtamimab's Commercial Potential

Birtamimab represents a significant multi-billion dollar global commercial opportunity as the first potential treatment for AL amyloidosis with demonstrated early survival benefit.

Partnerships with Major Pharmaceutical Companies

Collaborations with companies like Roche, Novo Nordisk, and Bristol Myers Squibb enhance the development of prasinezumab, coramitug, and BMS-986446, advancing them as potential transformative treatments.

Strong Financial Position

Prothena ended 2024 with $472.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, maintaining a simple capital structure with zero debt.

Lowlights

Prasinezumab Narrowly Misses Statistical Significance

In the Phase 2b PADOVA study for early Parkinson's disease, prasinezumab showed potential but narrowly missed statistical significance with a p-value of 0.0657.

High Dependency on Future Clinical Success

Financial guidance for 2025 is heavily reliant on the success of upcoming clinical trials, with a projected net loss between $197 million and $205 million.

Company Guidance

During the Prothena Biosciences Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics. Prothena expects full-year 2025 net cash used in operating and investing activities to range between $168 million and $175 million, anticipating a year-end cash balance of approximately $301 million. The projected net loss for 2025 is estimated to be between $197 million and $205 million, inclusive of an estimated $41 million in non-cash share-based compensation expense. As of December 31, 2024, Prothena reported $472.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, and as of February 20, 2025, the company had approximately 53.8 million ordinary shares outstanding. The company emphasized that it maintains a simple capital structure with zero debt.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.