Amrep (AXR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $149.87M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -27.32%
• EPS Growth: -15.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 42
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Development
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 5,305,199
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,173
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,394
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.68
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.24
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $55.32M

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(19.87% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—especially the very low-debt balance sheet and solid recent profitability—offset by a mixed technical picture (near-term weakness despite longer-term support) and a valuation that appears only moderate given earnings volatility and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet (near-zero debt)

Amrep's near-zero debt materially reduces financial risk and preserves flexibility across real estate cycles. This durable strength supports funding of development activity without refinancing stress, improving resilience to downturns and enabling opportunistic land acquisitions over the next several quarters.

Strong cash generation and free-cash-flow conversion

Robust FCF parity with net income indicates high earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Consistent cash conversion reduces reliance on external capital for development and gives management durable flexibility to pace projects, pay down obligations, or reinvest in value-creating infrastructure.

Governance strengthened via board expansion

Expanding the board and amending bylaws is a structural governance change that can broaden expertise, oversight, and strategic debate. Over months this supports better risk management, succession planning and stronger oversight of large multi-year development projects essential to long-term execution.

Negative Factors

Development-driven revenue and margin volatility

Revenue and margin swings reflect project timing, one-off items and cyclical sales pacing, making earnings and cashflows unpredictable. This structural volatility complicates budgeting, reduces forecasting reliability for lenders and investors, and can constrain strategic investment decisions over multiple quarters.

Concentrated geographic exposure (New Mexico)

Concentration in one state ties Amrep’s cash generation and asset values to local housing demand, regulation and economic trends. This geographic concentration amplifies downside risk from regional slowdowns, limiting diversification benefits and making performance sensitive to local market cycles for several quarters to years.

Very low leverage can cap returns in strong markets

Extremely conservative capital structure reduces risk but also limits return-on-equity during robust housing markets by underutilizing low-cost financing. This structural conservative posture may slow growth of land holdings and earnings expansion when market opportunities appear, constraining upside.

Amrep Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amrep Corporation (AXR) is a diversified company engaged in various sectors including packaging, marketing, and distribution services. The company primarily focuses on providing innovative packaging solutions and related services to a range of industries, including consumer goods, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals. Amrep's core products include aerosol and liquid packaging, which are designed to meet the specific needs of its clients, ensuring high-quality performance and sustainability.

How the Company Makes Money

Amrep primarily makes money from real estate activities, principally through the monetization of owned land and development assets. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) sales of developed and undeveloped land or lots to homebuilders and other buyers; (2) fees or margin earned from land development activities tied to preparing land for sale (e.g., infrastructure and entitlement-related value creation reflected in sales proceeds); and (3) income from real-estate-related holdings when applicable (e.g., leasing or other property-related income), to the extent such operations are present in a given period. The company’s earnings are therefore driven by the pace of land sales, pricing of lots/land, development costs, and the broader housing/real-estate cycle in its operating markets. Specific material partnerships, customer concentration, and segment-level breakdowns are null.

Amrep Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals led by an exceptionally conservative balance sheet (near-zero debt) and solid profitability with TTM revenue growth. The main constraint is development-driven volatility in revenue, margins, and free cash flow growth, which reduces earnings predictability.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show solid profitability with strong gross and operating margins and a healthy net margin, alongside a return to growth (revenue up 15.4%). Annual results were more volatile: revenue was slightly down in 2025 after a 2024 rebound, and margins swung sharply (notably a much lower gross margin in 2024 followed by a major improvement in TTM). Net income has generally remained strong, but the sharp year-to-year fluctuations suggest earnings may be influenced by project timing and/or one-off items, which reduces predictability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is exceptionally conservative: debt is effectively negligible versus equity (debt-to-equity near zero in recent periods), limiting financial risk and giving the company flexibility across real estate cycles. Equity and assets have steadily grown over the period, and returns on equity are solid in TTM (~9.6%) while having been higher in some prior years. The main drawback is that very low leverage can cap upside in strong markets, but overall financial stability is a clear strength.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow matches net income (free cash flow to net income of 1.0) and free cash flow growth is very strong versus the prior year. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were generally positive across the annual periods, though free cash flow growth has been uneven (declines in 2023 and 2025). A very high TTM cash-flow-to-debt coverage reflects the near-zero debt balance, which is positive, but also makes that coverage figure less informative about underlying cash durability.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021	Apr 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	53.00M	49.69M	51.37M	48.68M	62.48M	40.07M
Gross Profit	38.94M	32.88M	14.47M	18.90M	26.66M	14.47M
EBITDA	14.96M	12.29M	7.75M	5.89M	21.53M	40.07M
Net Income	12.93M	12.72M	6.69M	21.79M	15.86M	7.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	143.94M	133.78M	122.83M	115.89M	94.92M	97.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	50.00M	39.92M	29.69M	19.99M	15.72M	24.80M
Total Debt	21.00K	68.00K	35.00K	44.00K	2.03M	3.45M
Total Liabilities	4.57M	6.30M	4.78M	4.89M	11.76M	8.48M
Stockholders Equity	139.38M	129.96M	118.05M	111.00M	83.16M	88.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.65M	9.66M	10.26M	6.26M	14.19M	12.60M
Operating Cash Flow	13.65M	10.24M	10.71M	6.39M	15.48M	12.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-536.00K	-553.00K	-457.00K	-131.00K	-1.20M	-5.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-7.00K	-9.00K	-9.00K	-1.99M	-23.36M	-5.30M

Amrep Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 21.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.49, below the 50-day MA of 22.83, and below the 200-day MA of 22.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 69.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXR.

Amrep Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXR	71 Outperform	$149.87M	8.82	7.98%	―	-27.32%	-15.12%
FOR	66 Neutral	$1.31B	20.39	9.82%	―	10.13%	-18.11%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
FPH	62 Neutral	$563.59M	5.51	8.87%	―	-1.52%	81.35%
ARL	47 Neutral	$244.86M	-91.47	-0.47%	―	-0.58%	―

Amrep Corporate Events

Amrep Expands Board and Amends Corporate Bylaws

On January 26, 2026, Amrep’s board of directors approved changes to its governance structure, effective January 27, 2026, by expanding the board from four to five members and reallocating directors among its classified board structure. The number of Class III directors was increased from one to two, with Mr. McNaney designated as a Class III director, and the company’s bylaws were amended so that the board will now formally consist of five directors, signaling an expansion of board oversight and potential for broader strategic input at the governance level.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXR) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amrep stock, see the AXR Stock Forecast page.