Amrep (AXR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $110.24M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -27.32%
• EPS Growth: -15.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 42
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Development
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 5,305,199
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,173
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,394
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.76
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $23.00 ▲(6.04% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (strong margins and minimal leverage) and a reasonable P/E, tempered by declining revenue and sharply lower free-cash-flow growth. Technicals are neutral, with improving short-term positioning but a weaker long-term trend.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage

Extremely low leverage materially reduces financial risk and preserves balance sheet flexibility. This supports funding land development from internal resources or opportunistic acquisitions, lowers default risk in downturns, and enables steadier long-term execution of the real estate strategy.

High gross and operating margins

Sustained high gross and healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins indicate durable operational efficiency in land development activities. High margin structure allows profitable monetization of assets, supports reinvestment into projects, and provides resilience when sales volumes or prices fluctuate.

Strong cash conversion

Exceptional cash generation relative to reported earnings improves liquidity and reduces reliance on external financing for project work. Reliable cash conversion supports capital expenditures, land development timelines, and potential shareholder returns, enhancing long-term financial sustainability.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue

Falling revenue suggests weaker lot sales or price pressure in core markets, reducing scale and limiting margin leverage. Over the medium term this can erode growth prospects, constrain reinvestment in development pipelines, and make earnings more sensitive to single-period project timing.

Falling free cash flow growth

A sharp drop in free cash flow growth curtails the company’s ability to self-fund development and acquisitions. Persistently weaker FCF growth raises the likelihood of increased external financing, slower project cadence, or reduced capital returns, limiting strategic flexibility over coming quarters.

Concentrated, cyclical business model

Heavy dependence on land monetization and master-planned development ties financial performance to the housing cycle and macro factors like interest rates. This concentration increases revenue and cash flow volatility, making multi-period planning and steady growth more challenging during market downturns.

Amrep Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amrep Corporation (AXR) is a diversified company engaged in various sectors including packaging, marketing, and distribution services. The company primarily focuses on providing innovative packaging solutions and related services to a range of industries, including consumer goods, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals. Amrep's core products include aerosol and liquid packaging, which are designed to meet the specific needs of its clients, ensuring high-quality performance and sustainability.

How the Company Makes Money

Amrep generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its packaging products and services to various industries. The company earns money by manufacturing and distributing aerosol and liquid packaging solutions, which are essential for brands looking to deliver their products efficiently. Additionally, Amrep may engage in contract manufacturing and custom packaging services, allowing it to cater to specific customer requirements. Key partnerships with large consumer goods companies enhance its market presence and facilitate consistent sales. The company's revenue is further supported by ongoing demand for sustainable and innovative packaging solutions, as businesses increasingly focus on environmentally responsible practices.

Amrep Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating efficiency and capital structure (71.54% gross margin; healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins; extremely low debt-to-equity at 0.0002). Offsetting factors include negative revenue growth (-5.18% TTM), a lower net margin (22.86% TTM), and sharply negative free cash flow growth (-45.18% TTM) despite strong cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income at 166.87).

Income Statement

Amrep's income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 71.54% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 22.86% TTM, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. The revenue growth rate is negative at -5.18% TTM, suggesting a decline in sales. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 22.02% and 24.81% TTM, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0002 TTM, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is decent at 10.35% TTM, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong, highlighting a solid capital structure with a high proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -45.18% TTM, which could impact future liquidity. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is exceptionally high at 166.87 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	45.95M	49.69M	51.37M	48.68M	62.48M	40.07M
Gross Profit	32.87M	32.88M	14.47M	18.90M	26.66M	14.47M
EBITDA	11.40M	12.29M	7.75M	5.89M	21.53M	40.07M
Net Income	10.50M	12.72M	6.69M	21.79M	15.86M	7.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	140.13M	133.78M	122.83M	115.89M	94.92M	97.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	44.62M	39.92M	29.69M	19.99M	15.72M	24.80M
Total Debt	23.00K	68.00K	35.00K	44.00K	2.03M	3.45M
Total Liabilities	4.11M	6.30M	4.78M	4.89M	11.76M	8.48M
Stockholders Equity	136.03M	129.96M	118.05M	111.00M	83.16M	88.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.98M	9.66M	10.26M	6.26M	14.19M	12.60M
Operating Cash Flow	5.01M	10.24M	10.71M	6.39M	15.48M	12.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-513.00K	-553.00K	-457.00K	-131.00K	-1.20M	-5.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-9.00K	-9.00K	-9.00K	-1.99M	-23.36M	-5.30M

Amrep Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.71, above the 50-day MA of 20.44, and below the 200-day MA of 21.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXR.

Amrep Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXR	69 Neutral	$110.24M	10.62	8.04%	―	-27.32%	-15.12%
FPH	68 Neutral	$578.07M	6.62	12.52%	―	-1.52%	81.35%
FOR	66 Neutral	$1.32B	7.96	9.82%	―	10.13%	-18.11%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ARL	53 Neutral	$278.30M	48.32	0.95%	―	-0.58%	―

Amrep Corporate Events

Amrep Expands Board and Amends Corporate Bylaws

On January 26, 2026, Amrep’s board of directors approved changes to its governance structure, effective January 27, 2026, by expanding the board from four to five members and reallocating directors among its classified board structure. The number of Class III directors was increased from one to two, with Mr. McNaney designated as a Class III director, and the company’s bylaws were amended so that the board will now formally consist of five directors, signaling an expansion of board oversight and potential for broader strategic input at the governance level.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXR) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amrep stock, see the AXR Stock Forecast page.