Negative Free Cash FlowPersistent negative free cash flow, despite decent operating cash, constrains internal funding for the large NZ$1.0–1.2bn capex program and shareholder returns. Over time it may force increased external financing or deprioritised discretionary spend, raising structural liquidity risk.
Higher Depreciation From Recent CommissioningSignificant recent asset commissioning drives materially higher ongoing depreciation and related non-cash charges, reducing reported profits and return metrics. This converts past capex into permanent cost base pressure, limiting margin upside and earnings flexibility.
Regulatory And Tax UncertaintyOngoing input-methodology, cost-of-capital consultations and potential tax/treatment changes create structural regulatory risk. Altered allowed returns or nondeductibility rules could reduce cash flow predictability and long-term returns on invested capital, impacting strategic planning.