Yancoal Australia Ltd. (AU:YAL)
ASX:YAL
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Yancoal Australia
(Sydney:YAL)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
AU$8.00
▲(18.87% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/27/26
The score is driven primarily by a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet that mitigates risk, partially offset by weakening earnings and more volatile cash flow typical of a down-cycle. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is only moderate given the cyclical profitability backdrop.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage & large equity
Very low leverage and substantial equity give management flexibility to fund capital projects, service downturns, and pursue strategic moves without heavy external borrowing. This balance-sheet durability lowers default risk, supports sustaining capex and shareholder distributions across cycles.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue decline and profit collapse
Three consecutive years of revenue decline and a sharp drop in net income point to prolonged pricing or demand weakness for coal. Sustained lower earnings reduce internal funding for growth and shareholder returns, and increase exposure to extended industry downturns and structural shifts away from coal.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage & large equity
Very low leverage and substantial equity give management flexibility to fund capital projects, service downturns, and pursue strategic moves without heavy external borrowing. This balance-sheet durability lowers default risk, supports sustaining capex and shareholder distributions across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Yancoal Australia (YAL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$9.28B
Dividend Yield11.73%
Average Volume (3M)2.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.9
Beta (1Y)-0.48
Revenue Growth-13.48%
EPS Growth-63.82%
CountryAU
Employees3,689
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding1,320,439,500
10 Day Avg. Volume5,167,436
30 Day Avg. Volume2,933,173
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)1.11
P/FCF Ratio12.57
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$8.19Price Target Upside21.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.98B
Yancoal Australia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Yancoal Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of metallurgical and thermal coal in Australia, Japan, Singapore, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and internationally. It owns 95% interests in the Mool...
How the Company Makes Money
Yancoal Australia makes money primarily by selling coal produced from its operated mines. Revenue is generated from (1) thermal coal sales to power generators and energy traders and (2) metallurgical coal sales to steel industry customers and comm...
Yancoal Australia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and financial achievements — record quarterly and annual production, strong ROM and saleable volume gains, improved realized prices, a materially stronger cash balance (over AUD 2 billion) and no debt, plus maintained unit-cost discipline and improved safety metrics. These positives were balanced against mixed global coal-market dynamics, regional demand declines (notably China), lower ROM-to-saleable conversion in Q4 due to processing constraints, and some temporary operational issues. On balance the operational records and strengthened balance sheet materially outweigh the market headwinds and short-term operational constraints.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Annual Production
Attributable saleable coal of 10.4 million tonnes in Q4 was a company record; full year 2025 attributable production was a record 38.6 million tonnes.
Negative Updates
Mixed and Weak Seaborne Coal Markets
International indices were mixed: API5 +12% QoQ, GC Newcastle flat (but finishing with momentum), Platts Low Vol PCI -2% and Platts Semi-Soft +10%. Overall thermal and metallurgical markets experienced softness and uneven demand.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and Annual Production
Attributable saleable coal of 10.4 million tonnes in Q4 was a company record; full year 2025 attributable production was a record 38.6 million tonnes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Yancoal reiterated guidance to deliver cash operating costs around the middle of its AUD 89–97/t guidance range (HY cash opex AUD 93/t) and said capital expenditure will be toward the bottom of its prior AUD 750–900m guidance; 2026 guidance on production, cash opex and capex will be provided with the FY2025 results on 25 Feb. For context, Q4 ROM production was 18.9 Mt, Q4 saleable production 13.6 Mt, attributable saleable 10.4 Mt (10.2 Mt excluding the additional 3.75% Moolarben JV interest acquired 3 Oct), attributable sales 10.8 Mt, and FY2025 production was a company record 38.6 Mt. Financial and market metrics cited included average realized price AUD 148/t (+6% q/q; thermal AUD 138/t, met AUD 203/t), API5 +12% q/q, GC Newcastle flat q/q, Platts Low Vol PCI -2% and Platts Semi‑Soft +10%; cash increased by ~AUD 307m in the quarter to >AUD 2.0bn with no interest‑bearing debt, TRIFR was 6.14 (industry weighted average 7.45), and management referenced a ~50% NPAT or ~50% free cash flow payout framework (to be decided by the Board at year‑end) when considering dividends and capital management.Yancoal Australia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.88B | 6.77B | 7.80B | 10.66B | 5.52B |
| Gross Profit | 2.27B | 5.37B | 4.55B | 7.51B | 2.70B |
| EBITDA | 1.47B | 2.47B | 3.51B | 6.34B | 2.18B |
| Net Income | 440.00M | 1.22B | 1.82B | 3.59B | 791.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.66B | 12.36B | 11.81B | 13.37B | 12.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.13B | 2.46B | 1.40B | 2.70B | 1.50B |
| Total Debt | 125.00M | 112.00M | 146.00M | 673.00M | 3.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.63B | 3.04B | 3.37B | 5.34B | 6.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.03B | 9.31B | 8.44B | 8.03B | 6.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 520.00M | 1.43B | 639.00M | 6.01B | 1.64B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.27B | 2.13B | 1.26B | 6.56B | 1.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -757.00M | -687.00M | -596.00M | -334.00M | -317.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -816.00M | -498.00M | -1.98B | -5.13B | -761.00M |
Yancoal Australia Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.73
Price Trends
6.95
Negative
6.12
Positive
5.87
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
38.14
Neutral
4.10
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:YAL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.84, below the 50-day MA of 6.95, and above the 200-day MA of 5.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:YAL.
Yancoal Australia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$9.28B | 14.86 | 4.93% | 11.73% | -13.48% | -63.82% | |
66 Neutral | AU$4.36B | 17.50 | 5.87% | 8.48% | -20.55% | -72.75% | |
66 Neutral | AU$6.30B | 23.23 | 11.25% | 1.92% | -13.80% | 268.90% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | AU$2.01B | -42.81 | -4.42% | 7.32% | -19.76% | -125.65% | |
44 Neutral | AU$452.64M | -0.80 | -52.66% | 4.79% | -20.52% | -306.32% | |
41 Neutral | AU$8.08M | -0.07 | -425.94% | ― | ― | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:YAL
Yancoal Australia
7.28
2.44
50.32%
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50.86%
AU:WHC
Whitehaven Coal Limited
8.00
3.08
62.63%
AU:BCB
Bowen Coking Coal Ltd
0.08
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-78.26%
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Stanmore Resources Ltd
2.24
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AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.26
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30.00%
Yancoal Australia Corporate Events
Yancoal Issues New Performance Share Rights Under 2025 Incentive Plan
Apr 24, 2026
Yancoal Australia has notified the market of the issue of 975,358 unquoted Performance Share Rights under its Short-Term Incentive Plan for 2025. The new equity securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, form part of an employee i...
Yancoal Grants Deferred Share Rights to Senior Executives Under Incentive Plan
Apr 24, 2026
Yancoal Australia has granted 975,358 deferred share rights to senior management under its shareholder-approved equity incentive plan, representing about 0.07% of its issued share capital. The short-term incentive awards are structured to align ex...
Yancoal Sets Early Record Date for 2026 AGM to Meet Dual-Listing Rules
Apr 23, 2026
Yancoal Australia has confirmed the record date and time for determining shareholder voting entitlements ahead of its 2026 annual general meeting, set for 7:00 p.m. Sydney time on 21 May 2026. Hong Kong shareholders must ensure their share transfe...
Yancoal Files Updated Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G with ASX
Apr 23, 2026
Yancoal Australia has lodged its latest corporate governance statement with the ASX for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, confirming it is included in the company’s 2025 annual report. The statement, current as of 25 February 2026 a...
Yancoal Sets 2026 AGM to Vote on Board, Pay and Share Issuance Mandate
Apr 23, 2026
Yancoal Australia has convened its 2026 annual general meeting for 28 May in Sydney, where shareholders will review the 2025 financial statements, vote on the re-election of non-executive directors Gang Ru and Xiaolong Huang, and consider adoption...
Yancoal Sets Out 2025 Sustainability Priorities Across Profit, Planet and People
Apr 23, 2026
Yancoal Australia has released its 2025 Sustainability Statement, outlining its strategic approach to integrating sustainability across its operations and value chain. The report highlights governance, compliance, leadership, and the company’...
Yancoal Australia Releases Comprehensive 2025 Annual Report
Apr 23, 2026
Yancoal Australia has released its 2025 Annual Report, providing a comprehensive overview of its financial performance, management discussion and analysis, and audited consolidated financial statements. The report also outlines the company’s...
Yancoal Holds Guidance as Diesel Costs Rise and Kestrel Deal Looms
Apr 20, 2026
Yancoal Australia reported March quarter 2026 ROM coal production of 15.0 million tonnes on a 100% basis and 11.9 million tonnes of saleable coal, with 9.0 million tonnes attributable and 8.2 million tonnes of attributable coal sales. The average ...
Yancoal Sets Date and Webcast for 1Q 2026 Results
Apr 15, 2026
Yancoal Australia will release its first-quarter 2026 quarterly report on 20 April 2026 after 6:30 p.m. AEST, providing investors with an update on the company’s recent operating and financial performance. The timing signals continued adhere...
Yancoal to Acquire 80% Stake in Long-Life Kestrel Metallurgical Coal Mine
Apr 14, 2026
Yancoal Australia has announced plans to acquire an 80% stake in the Kestrel Coal Mine, a high-quality, long-life metallurgical coal asset. The transaction underscores Yancoal’s strategy to strengthen its position in the metallurgical coal m...
Yancoal to Buy 80% of Kestrel Mine in US$2.4bn Met Coal Push
Apr 14, 2026
Yancoal Australia has agreed to acquire an 80% interest in Queensland’s Kestrel Coal Mine, the largest producing underground coal mine in Australia, via the purchase of Kestrel Coal Group for up to US$2.4 billion in cash and contingent payme...
Yancoal Australia Requests Trading Halt Ahead of Pending Announcement
Apr 14, 2026
Yancoal Australia has requested a trading halt in its securities on the ASX, with all YAL shares suspended from trading until it releases a pending announcement. The halt is expected to last until either the announcement is made public or normal t...
Yancoal Australia Reports Lapse of 2023 Performance Share Rights
Apr 6, 2026
Yancoal Australia has notified the ASX of the cessation of 193,676 performance share rights issued under its 2023 short-term incentive plan. The move reflects routine adjustments to its employee incentive securities on issue, with no additional de...
Yancoal Files Routine HKEX Monthly Securities Return With No Capital Changes
Apr 2, 2026
Yancoal Australia has submitted its required monthly return to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing for movements in its listed securities and Hong Kong Depositary Receipts for the month ended 31 March 2026. The filing notes there were no applicable m...
Yancoal Issues 415,609 New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Mar 19, 2026
Yancoal Australia has issued 415,609 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The issuance, dated 17 March 2026, marginally increases the company’s share base and...
Yancoal Director Boosts Shareholding as Incentive Rights Vest
Mar 19, 2026
Yancoal Australia has disclosed changes to director Ning Yue’s holdings following the vesting of short‑term incentive plan rights granted under its 2023 and 2024 deferred STIP awards. A portion of the vested rights was settled in new s...
Yancoal Splits Settlement of 2023–24 Incentive Rights Between Shares and Cash
Mar 19, 2026
Yancoal Australia has confirmed the vesting of 387,358 deferred share rights under its 2023 short term incentive plan, with roughly half to be settled in existing fully paid ordinary shares and the remainder in cash based on the company’s vo...
Yancoal Australia Reports No Share Capital Changes in February HKEX Filing
Mar 5, 2026
Yancoal Australia has lodged its monthly return for equity securities and Hong Kong Depositary Receipts with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing for the month ended 28 February 2026. The filing indicates there were no movements in authorised or regis...
Yancoal Australia Declares Final Dividend for 2025 with April Payout
Feb 25, 2026
Yancoal Australia has declared a final ordinary cash dividend of AUD 0.122 per share for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, reinforcing its practice of returning capital to shareholders. For investors trading the stock in Hong Kong, the di...
Yancoal Posts Stable Coal Resources but Lower Reserves for 2025
Feb 25, 2026
Yancoal Australia reported its coal resources and reserves for the year ending 31 December 2025, showing total measured, indicated and inferred coal resources unchanged at 4,400 million tonnes. Recoverable proved and probable coal reserves fell 7....
Yancoal Australia Declares Interim Ordinary Dividend of AUD 0.122 per Share
Feb 25, 2026
Yancoal Australia has declared an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.122 per fully paid share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025, reflecting a distribution of profits from its coal operations. The dividend will trade ex-dividend on 19 March 2...
Yancoal flags limits and cautions on use of 2025 financial results data
Feb 25, 2026
Yancoal Australia has released a presentation outlining its 2025 financial results, emphasising that the document is informational only and not an offer or recommendation to invest. The company cautions that the material is incomplete, subject to ...
Yancoal lifts 2025 coal output but profits slump on weaker prices
Feb 25, 2026
Yancoal Australia reported record 2025 coal output, with run-of-mine production up 7% and attributable saleable coal up 5%, helping reduce cash operating costs to $92 per tonne despite inflationary pressures. However, revenue fell 13% to $5.95 bil...
Yancoal Profit Slumps but Dividend Payouts Stay Strong
Feb 25, 2026
Yancoal Australia reported a 13% decline in revenue to A$5.95 billion for the year ended 31 December 2025, with profit before income tax dropping around 63–64% and net profit attributable to members falling by about 64–65%. Earnings pe...
Yancoal sets 2025 results release and investor webcast for late February
Feb 20, 2026
Yancoal Australia has scheduled the release of its 2025 financial results for 25 February 2026, after 7:30pm AEDT, signaling an imminent update on its operational and financial performance. The company will follow this with a webcast for investors...
Yancoal Files Routine January HKEX Monthly Return
Feb 4, 2026
Yancoal lodged its routine monthly return for equity issuers and Hong Kong depositary receipts with HKEX for the month ended 31 January 2026, confirming no changes in authorised or registered share capital. The filing signals regulatory compliance...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.