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Yancoal Australia Ltd. (AU:YAL)
ASX:YAL
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Yancoal Australia (YAL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:YAL

Yancoal Australia

(Sydney:YAL)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
AU$7.50
▲(14.33%Upside)
Yancoal Australia Ltd. achieves a strong overall stock score driven by its robust financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call insights. The company's stable balance sheet and ability to maintain profitability amid revenue declines are significant strengths. Technical indicators also reflect a favorable market sentiment towards the stock.
Positive Factors
Logistical Improvements
Analyst maintains a BUY rating expecting sales to production ratio improvement driven by the resolution of logistical issues.
Market Confidence
A final dividend of A$0.52/share was declared, which is long-awaited by the market, enhancing investors' confidence.
Negative Factors
Coal Price Risks
Key risks include further decline in coal price, rebound of unit cost, and extreme weather that affects production.
Earnings Forecast
2025E/26E earnings forecast is revised down by 13%/12%, largely due to lower coal ASP and slightly higher cost assumptions.

Yancoal Australia (YAL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Yancoal Australia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionYancoal Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of metallurgical and thermal coal in Australia, Japan, Singapore, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and internationally. It owns 95% interests in the Moolarben coal mine located in the Western Coalfields of New South Wales; 100% interests in the Stratford Duralie mines located within the New South Wales Gloucester Basin; 100% interests in the Yarrabee mine located to the northeast of Blackwater in Central Queensland's Bowen Basin; and 80% interests in the Mount Thorley mine and 84.5% interests in the Warkworth mine located in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. In addition, it owns 100% interest in the Ashton mine located in the Upper Hunter Valley region of New South Wales; the Austar mine located in New South Wales; and 50% interest in the Middlemount mine located in the Queensland's Bowen Basin, as well as holds interest in the Cameby Downs mine located in the Southeast Queensland, and the Hunter Valley coal mine located in the New South Wales. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Sydney, Australia. Yancoal Australia Ltd is a subsidiary of Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited.
How the Company Makes MoneyYancoal Australia generates revenue primarily through the sale of thermal and metallurgical coal. The company supplies coal to power utilities and steel producers in Australia and exports a significant portion to countries in Asia, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, where demand for energy and steel production is high. Yancoal's key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts and spot market sales, which help stabilize income amidst fluctuating coal prices. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, allowing it to optimize production and distribution channels for maximum profitability.

Yancoal Australia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 27.73%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted a strong financial and operational performance, with increased production and sales volumes, a robust cash position, and operational efficiencies. However, there were challenges related to weather disruptions, softer demand in coal markets, and a decline in metallurgical coal prices.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Production and Sales
Full year ROM coal production increased by 4% to nearly 63 million tonnes. Annual attributable production and sales increased by 10% and 14%, respectively.
Strong Financial Position
The company added $480 million to its cash position during the quarter, finishing the year with a cash balance of almost $2.5 billion.
Operational Efficiency
Moolarben open cut mine reached its permitted production cap of 16 million tonnes of ROM coal. The total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 6.7, below the industry average.
Sales Volume Exceeds Production
Attributable sales volume was 10.4 million tonnes, 0.7 million tonnes more than the saleable production due to selling down stockpiles.
Negative Updates
Weather Disruptions
Above average rainfall caused weather disruptions in New South Wales and Queensland, although the rain impacts on production were modest.
Soft Demand in Coal Markets
Mild winter and geopolitical tensions resulted in demand below usual levels. The API 5 and GCNewc indices slightly down during the quarter.
Decline in Metallurgical Coal Prices
Metallurgical coal realized price declined 6% to AUD 242 per tonne. The average low-vol PCI price was down 10% compared to the third quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Yancoal Australia Q4 2024 earnings call, the guidance provided highlighted several key metrics and achievements. The company reported that its full-year ROM coal production increased by 4% to nearly 63 million tonnes, while annual attributable production and sales rose by 10% and 14%, respectively. They achieved 36.9 million tonnes of attributable saleable coal production, hitting the midpoint of their production guidance range. Yancoal expects its 2024 financial results to show cash operating costs around the midpoint of the $89 to $97 per tonne guidance range. The strong production and cost management resulted in an additional $480 million added to their cash position, closing the year with a cash balance of almost $2.5 billion. Despite weather disruptions, the company's mines produced 17.3 million tonnes of ROM coal and 13 million tonnes of saleable coal on a 100% basis during Q4. The call also discussed potential future dividends, with the board meeting in February to make decisions, and emphasized the company's financial capacity to pursue corporate initiatives.

Yancoal Australia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Yancoal Australia Ltd. exhibits strong profitability with high gross margins and a stable balance sheet with low debt levels. However, the significant decline in total revenue and potential cash flow fluctuations pose challenges.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Yancoal Australia Ltd. demonstrates strong profitability with a high gross profit margin consistently over 70% in recent years. However, there is a notable decline in total revenue from $10.657 billion in 2022 to $6.766 billion in 2024, indicating significant revenue contraction. The absence of EBIT in 2024 further impacts the profitability metrics, although EBITDA remains robust.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, decreasing from 0.08 in 2023 to 0.01 in 2024, indicating minimal leverage. The equity ratio remains strong, showing stability in asset financing primarily through equity. However, the drop in total assets from 2022 may signal underlying asset management challenges.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Yancoal's free cash flow grew significantly from 2023 to 2024, demonstrating effective cash management and capital allocation. Although operating cash flow data for 2024 is unavailable, historical trends suggest strong cash generation capabilities. The company faces potential risks with fluctuating capital expenditures and financing cash flows.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.77B7.80B10.66B5.52B3.55B
Gross Profit5.37B4.55B7.51B2.70B855.00M
EBITDA2.47B3.51B6.34B2.18B-44.00M
Net Income1.22B1.82B3.59B791.00M-1.04B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.36B11.81B13.37B12.34B11.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.46B1.40B2.70B1.50B637.00M
Total Debt112.00M146.00M673.00M3.44B4.21B
Total Liabilities3.04B3.37B5.34B6.19B5.86B
Stockholders Equity9.31B8.44B8.03B6.14B5.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.43B639.00M6.01B1.64B337.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.15B1.26B6.56B1.91B616.00M
Investing Cash Flow-687.00M-596.00M-334.00M-317.00M-602.00M
Financing Cash Flow-498.00M-1.98B-5.13B-761.00M-314.00M

Yancoal Australia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.56
Price Trends
50DMA
5.74
Positive
100DMA
5.41
Positive
200DMA
5.56
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.18
Negative
RSI
67.52
Neutral
STOCH
97.70
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:YAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.14, above the 50-day MA of 5.74, and above the 200-day MA of 5.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:YAL.

Yancoal Australia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$8.69B7.1313.93%7.93%-12.04%-32.97%
67
Neutral
$15.28B9.736.25%5.18%4.49%-71.88%
$131.61M4.5812.65%
$2.43B6.4522.35%5.40%
$3.92B32.373.39%0.87%
70
Neutral
AU$2.21B7.6710.52%2.95%-13.91%-58.85%
60
Neutral
AU$326.91M-16.23%16.23%-17.57%-1132.91%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:YAL
Yancoal Australia
6.56
0.34
5.40%
BTURF
Bathurst Resources Ltd
0.52
0.01
1.96%
NHPEF
New Hope Corporation Limited
2.75
-0.20
-6.78%
WHITF
Whitehaven Coal Limited
4.56
-0.35
-7.13%
AU:SMR
Stanmore Resources Ltd
2.45
-1.02
-29.39%
AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.20
-1.15
-85.19%

Yancoal Australia Corporate Events

Yancoal Australia Updates on Incentive Plan Rights
Jul 18, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has announced updates on its incentive plans, including the vesting and settlement of rights under its 2023 Short Term Incentive Plan (STIP) and 2021 and 2022 Long Term Incentive Plans (LTIP). The 2023 STIP saw 71,879 rights vesting and settled through cash payments, while 33,064 rights were forfeited due to employee resignations. The 2021 and 2022 LTIP rights have been fully exercised and settled through the transfer of existing shares, leaving no remaining rights on issue. These updates reflect Yancoal’s ongoing efforts to manage its employee incentive programs and could impact employee retention and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Expands Stake in Moolarben Joint Venture
Jul 18, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd, through its subsidiary Moolarben Coal Mines Pty Ltd, has agreed to acquire an additional 3.75% interest in the Moolarben Joint Venture for A$110.5 million. This acquisition will increase Yancoal’s economic interest in the joint venture to 98.75%, enhancing its stake in the coal mining sector. The transaction is funded through cash holdings and future cash flows, with the effective economic interest date set for January 1, 2025, pending necessary government approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Reports Strong Q2 2025 Performance Amidst Market Challenges
Jul 17, 2025

Yancoal Australia reported a strong operational performance for the second quarter of 2025, with a 12% increase in ROM coal production compared to the previous quarter. Despite temporary port closures affecting sales, the company maintains a robust financial position with a $1.8 billion cash balance, enabling it to navigate the current cyclical downturn in coal prices. The company is optimistic about meeting its full-year production guidance and anticipates a potential recovery in coal prices due to supply-side reductions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$37.71 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits June 2025 Monthly Return
Jul 2, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for June 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. This submission includes details on the movements in securities, reflecting the company’s ongoing compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules, and signifies its active engagement in the Hong Kong market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits May 2025 Monthly Return Notice
Jun 2, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for May 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. This submission is part of its compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules for movements in securities, specifically concerning its equity issuer and Hong Kong Depositary Receipts. The announcement does not indicate any changes in the company’s authorized or registered share capital, suggesting stability in its financial structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Performance Share Rights to Boost Employee Incentives
May 30, 2025

Yancoal Australia Limited announced the issuance of 62,955 performance share rights under its 2024 Short-Term Incentive Plan (STIP), which are unquoted equity securities. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with corporate performance, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Deferred Share Rights to Director
May 30, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has issued 62,955 deferred share rights to Mr. Ning Yue, Co-Vice Chairman and Director, under its Equity Incentive Plan as part of a Short Term Incentive Plan. These rights, which will vest over two years, are designed to reward achievements aligned with the company’s strategic goals and may be settled in equity or cash, representing a small fraction of the company’s share capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues New Performance Share Rights
May 23, 2025

Yancoal Australia Limited has announced the issuance of 682,609 performance share rights under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for 2025. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with long-term corporate performance, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Performance Share Rights to Executives
May 23, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has issued 682,609 performance share rights to senior executives as part of its 2025 long-term incentive plan. These rights, which are subject to specific performance conditions, may be converted into shares or cash, representing about 0.05% of the company’s issued share capital, thereby aligning executive interests with shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$37.71 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits April 2025 Monthly Return Notice
May 8, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for April 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, as part of its compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules. This submission reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring smooth operations in the competitive coal industry.

Yancoal Australia Issues New Equity Securities
May 2, 2025

Yancoal Australia Limited announced the issuance of 894,778 ordinary fully paid securities as of May 2, 2025. This move involves the conversion or payment up of unquoted equity securities, indicating strategic financial maneuvers that could impact the company’s market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Yancoal Australia Updates on 2022 LTIP Rights
May 2, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd announced updates regarding its 2022 Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) Rights, with 82% of the performance share rights being awarded to eligible participants. The company has settled 894,778 vested rights through the transfer of existing shares, while 605,488 vested rights remain on issue, reflecting the company’s commitment to rewarding performance and aligning employee incentives with shareholder interests.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025