Yancoal Australia (YAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.69B
• Dividend Yield: 7.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: -12.04%
• EPS Growth: -32.97%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,689
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 1,320,439,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,260,388
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,133,208
• PEG Ratio: -1.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $6.57
• Price Target Upside: 0.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$7.50 ▲(14.33%Upside)

Yancoal Australia Ltd. achieves a strong overall stock score driven by its robust financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call insights. The company's stable balance sheet and ability to maintain profitability amid revenue declines are significant strengths. Technical indicators also reflect a favorable market sentiment towards the stock.

Positive Factors

Logistical Improvements

Analyst maintains a BUY rating expecting sales to production ratio improvement driven by the resolution of logistical issues.

Market Confidence

A final dividend of A$0.52/share was declared, which is long-awaited by the market, enhancing investors' confidence.

Negative Factors

Coal Price Risks

Key risks include further decline in coal price, rebound of unit cost, and extreme weather that affects production.

Earnings Forecast

2025E/26E earnings forecast is revised down by 13%/12%, largely due to lower coal ASP and slightly higher cost assumptions.

Yancoal Australia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Yancoal Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of metallurgical and thermal coal in Australia, Japan, Singapore, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and internationally. It owns 95% interests in the Moolarben coal mine located in the Western Coalfields of New South Wales; 100% interests in the Stratford Duralie mines located within the New South Wales Gloucester Basin; 100% interests in the Yarrabee mine located to the northeast of Blackwater in Central Queensland's Bowen Basin; and 80% interests in the Mount Thorley mine and 84.5% interests in the Warkworth mine located in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. In addition, it owns 100% interest in the Ashton mine located in the Upper Hunter Valley region of New South Wales; the Austar mine located in New South Wales; and 50% interest in the Middlemount mine located in the Queensland's Bowen Basin, as well as holds interest in the Cameby Downs mine located in the Southeast Queensland, and the Hunter Valley coal mine located in the New South Wales. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Sydney, Australia. Yancoal Australia Ltd is a subsidiary of Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

Yancoal Australia generates revenue primarily through the sale of thermal and metallurgical coal. The company supplies coal to power utilities and steel producers in Australia and exports a significant portion to countries in Asia, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, where demand for energy and steel production is high. Yancoal's key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts and spot market sales, which help stabilize income amidst fluctuating coal prices. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, allowing it to optimize production and distribution channels for maximum profitability.

Yancoal Australia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Yancoal Australia Ltd. exhibits strong profitability with high gross margins and a stable balance sheet with low debt levels. However, the significant decline in total revenue and potential cash flow fluctuations pose challenges.

Income Statement

Yancoal Australia Ltd. demonstrates strong profitability with a high gross profit margin consistently over 70% in recent years. However, there is a notable decline in total revenue from $10.657 billion in 2022 to $6.766 billion in 2024, indicating significant revenue contraction. The absence of EBIT in 2024 further impacts the profitability metrics, although EBITDA remains robust.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, decreasing from 0.08 in 2023 to 0.01 in 2024, indicating minimal leverage. The equity ratio remains strong, showing stability in asset financing primarily through equity. However, the drop in total assets from 2022 may signal underlying asset management challenges.

Cash Flow

Yancoal's free cash flow grew significantly from 2023 to 2024, demonstrating effective cash management and capital allocation. Although operating cash flow data for 2024 is unavailable, historical trends suggest strong cash generation capabilities. The company faces potential risks with fluctuating capital expenditures and financing cash flows.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.77B	7.80B	10.66B	5.52B	3.55B
Gross Profit	5.37B	4.55B	7.51B	2.70B	855.00M
EBITDA	2.47B	3.51B	6.34B	2.18B	-44.00M
Net Income	1.22B	1.82B	3.59B	791.00M	-1.04B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.36B	11.81B	13.37B	12.34B	11.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.46B	1.40B	2.70B	1.50B	637.00M
Total Debt	112.00M	146.00M	673.00M	3.44B	4.21B
Total Liabilities	3.04B	3.37B	5.34B	6.19B	5.86B
Stockholders Equity	9.31B	8.44B	8.03B	6.14B	5.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.43B	639.00M	6.01B	1.64B	337.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.15B	1.26B	6.56B	1.91B	616.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-687.00M	-596.00M	-334.00M	-317.00M	-602.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-498.00M	-1.98B	-5.13B	-761.00M	-314.00M

Yancoal Australia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:YAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.14, above the 50-day MA of 5.74, and above the 200-day MA of 5.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:YAL.

Yancoal Australia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YAL	78 Outperform	$8.69B	7.13	13.93%	7.93%	-12.04%	-32.97%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$15.28B	9.73	6.25%	5.18%	4.49%	-71.88%
BTURF	―	$131.61M	4.58	12.65%	―	―	―
NHPEF	―	$2.43B	6.45	22.35%	5.40%	―	―
WHITF	―	$3.92B	32.37	3.39%	0.87%	―	―
SMR	70 Neutral	AU$2.21B	7.67	10.52%	2.95%	-13.91%	-58.85%
CRN	60 Neutral	AU$326.91M	―	-16.23%	16.23%	-17.57%	-1132.91%

Yancoal Australia Corporate Events

Yancoal Australia Updates on Incentive Plan Rights

Yancoal Australia Ltd has announced updates on its incentive plans, including the vesting and settlement of rights under its 2023 Short Term Incentive Plan (STIP) and 2021 and 2022 Long Term Incentive Plans (LTIP). The 2023 STIP saw 71,879 rights vesting and settled through cash payments, while 33,064 rights were forfeited due to employee resignations. The 2021 and 2022 LTIP rights have been fully exercised and settled through the transfer of existing shares, leaving no remaining rights on issue. These updates reflect Yancoal’s ongoing efforts to manage its employee incentive programs and could impact employee retention and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Expands Stake in Moolarben Joint Venture

Yancoal Australia Ltd, through its subsidiary Moolarben Coal Mines Pty Ltd, has agreed to acquire an additional 3.75% interest in the Moolarben Joint Venture for A$110.5 million. This acquisition will increase Yancoal’s economic interest in the joint venture to 98.75%, enhancing its stake in the coal mining sector. The transaction is funded through cash holdings and future cash flows, with the effective economic interest date set for January 1, 2025, pending necessary government approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Reports Strong Q2 2025 Performance Amidst Market Challenges

Yancoal Australia reported a strong operational performance for the second quarter of 2025, with a 12% increase in ROM coal production compared to the previous quarter. Despite temporary port closures affecting sales, the company maintains a robust financial position with a $1.8 billion cash balance, enabling it to navigate the current cyclical downturn in coal prices. The company is optimistic about meeting its full-year production guidance and anticipates a potential recovery in coal prices due to supply-side reductions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$37.71 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits June 2025 Monthly Return

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for June 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. This submission includes details on the movements in securities, reflecting the company’s ongoing compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules, and signifies its active engagement in the Hong Kong market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits May 2025 Monthly Return Notice

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for May 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. This submission is part of its compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules for movements in securities, specifically concerning its equity issuer and Hong Kong Depositary Receipts. The announcement does not indicate any changes in the company’s authorized or registered share capital, suggesting stability in its financial structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Performance Share Rights to Boost Employee Incentives

Yancoal Australia Limited announced the issuance of 62,955 performance share rights under its 2024 Short-Term Incentive Plan (STIP), which are unquoted equity securities. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with corporate performance, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Deferred Share Rights to Director

Yancoal Australia Ltd has issued 62,955 deferred share rights to Mr. Ning Yue, Co-Vice Chairman and Director, under its Equity Incentive Plan as part of a Short Term Incentive Plan. These rights, which will vest over two years, are designed to reward achievements aligned with the company’s strategic goals and may be settled in equity or cash, representing a small fraction of the company’s share capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues New Performance Share Rights

Yancoal Australia Limited has announced the issuance of 682,609 performance share rights under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for 2025. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with long-term corporate performance, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Performance Share Rights to Executives

Yancoal Australia Ltd has issued 682,609 performance share rights to senior executives as part of its 2025 long-term incentive plan. These rights, which are subject to specific performance conditions, may be converted into shares or cash, representing about 0.05% of the company’s issued share capital, thereby aligning executive interests with shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$37.71 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits April 2025 Monthly Return Notice

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for April 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, as part of its compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules. This submission reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring smooth operations in the competitive coal industry.

Yancoal Australia Issues New Equity Securities

Yancoal Australia Limited announced the issuance of 894,778 ordinary fully paid securities as of May 2, 2025. This move involves the conversion or payment up of unquoted equity securities, indicating strategic financial maneuvers that could impact the company’s market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Yancoal Australia Updates on 2022 LTIP Rights

Yancoal Australia Ltd announced updates regarding its 2022 Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) Rights, with 82% of the performance share rights being awarded to eligible participants. The company has settled 894,778 vested rights through the transfer of existing shares, while 605,488 vested rights remain on issue, reflecting the company’s commitment to rewarding performance and aligning employee incentives with shareholder interests.