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Yancoal Australia Ltd. (AU:YAL)
ASX:YAL
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Yancoal Australia (YAL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:YAL

Yancoal Australia

(Sydney:YAL)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$6.00
▲(9.49% Upside)
Yancoal Australia Ltd. has a strong financial foundation and attractive valuation, but faces challenges from declining revenues and bearish technical indicators. The earnings call provided a mixed outlook with operational strengths offset by external market pressures.
Positive Factors
Financial Position
Yancoal is sitting on a large cash balance, equivalent to approximately 20% of its current market capitalization.
Investor Confidence
A final dividend of A$0.52/share was declared, which is long-awaited by the market, enhancing investors' confidence.
Production Growth
Management is confident of reaching the upper end of the full-year production volume target due to strong production growth.
Negative Factors
Earnings Forecast
2025E/26E earnings forecast is revised down by 13%/12%, largely due to lower coal ASP and slightly higher cost assumptions.
Market Risks
Key risks include further decline in coal price, rebound of unit cost, and extreme weather that affects production.

Yancoal Australia (YAL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Yancoal Australia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionYancoal Australia (YAL) is a leading coal producer in Australia, primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and operation of coal mining projects. The company specializes in the production of thermal and metallurgical coal, catering to both domestic and international markets. Yancoal operates several open-cut and underground coal mines across New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, making it a significant player in the Australian mining industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyYancoal Australia generates revenue primarily through the sale of thermal and metallurgical coal. The company supplies coal to power utilities and steel producers in Australia and exports a significant portion to countries in Asia, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, where demand for energy and steel production is high. Yancoal's key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts and spot market sales, which help stabilize income amidst fluctuating coal prices. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, allowing it to optimize production and distribution channels for maximum profitability.

Yancoal Australia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Yancoal's strong operational performance and financial position but was offset by challenges related to decreased coal prices and weather-related disruptions affecting sales volumes. The company remains optimistic about navigating the cyclical low in coal prices.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Best First Half Operational Performance in Five Years
Yancoal reported its best first half operational performance in the past five years, with ROM coal and attributable saleable coal volumes 15% to 16% ahead of last year.
Increase in Coal Production
Total ROM coal production increased by 12% compared to the first quarter of the year and 23% more than the second quarter last year, with saleable coal production up 15% from the second quarter last year.
Strong Financial Position
Yancoal ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.8 billion and no interest-bearing debt, after distributing a $687 million dividend.
Reduced Injury Frequency Rate
Total recordable injury frequency rate reduced to 6.32, below the industry weighted average of 7.93.
Negative Updates
Sales Volume Impacted by Weather-Related Closure
A significant volume of sales slipped from the second quarter to the third due to a temporary weather-related closure at the Port of Newcastle, impacting revenue and cash generation.
Decreasing Coal Prices
Coal prices continued to decrease during the quarter, with key indices down between 2% and 12% compared to the previous quarter.
Challenges in Global Coal Demand
Declines in coal imports from major regions like China, India, and Japan due to increased domestic production, weather impacts, and alternative energy sources.
Company Guidance
During the Yancoal Second Quarter Production Report Conference Call, several metrics and insights about the company's performance in Q2 of 2025 were shared. The company reported a 15% to 16% increase in ROM coal and attributable saleable coal volumes compared to the previous year. Yancoal's production was ahead of the midpoint in its guidance range of 35 to 39 million tonnes, with expectations to reach the upper end. The cash operating costs for the first half are expected to fall within the guidance range of $89 to $97 per tonne. Despite a decline in coal prices, Yancoal maintained a competitive edge by focusing on operational efficiency and minimizing costs. The quarter ended with a cash balance of $1.8 billion, post a $687 million dividend payout, and noted sales of approximately 1.4 million tonnes deferred to the third quarter due to logistic disruptions. Additionally, the total recordable injury frequency rate was at 6.32, under the industry average of 7.93. The conference highlighted a cautious outlook on coal prices due to global supply and demand dynamics, with specific attention to the impacts of weather and geopolitical factors on market conditions.

Yancoal Australia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Yancoal Australia Ltd. shows strong profitability with a high gross profit margin and a solid balance sheet with low debt levels. However, declining revenues and fluctuations in cash flows present challenges.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Yancoal Australia Ltd. demonstrates strong profitability with a high gross profit margin consistently over 70% in recent years. However, there is a notable decline in total revenue from $10.657 billion in 2022 to $6.766 billion in 2024, indicating significant revenue contraction. The absence of EBIT in 2024 further impacts the profitability metrics, although EBITDA remains robust.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, decreasing from 0.08 in 2023 to 0.01 in 2024, indicating minimal leverage. The equity ratio remains strong, showing stability in asset financing primarily through equity. However, the drop in total assets from 2022 may signal underlying asset management challenges.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Yancoal's free cash flow grew significantly from 2023 to 2024, demonstrating effective cash management and capital allocation. Although operating cash flow data for 2024 is unavailable, historical trends suggest strong cash generation capabilities. The company faces potential risks with fluctuating capital expenditures and financing cash flows.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.77B7.80B10.66B5.52B3.55B
Gross Profit5.37B4.55B7.51B2.70B855.00M
EBITDA2.47B3.51B6.34B2.18B-44.00M
Net Income1.22B1.82B3.59B791.00M-1.04B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.36B11.81B13.37B12.34B11.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.46B1.40B2.70B1.50B637.00M
Total Debt112.00M146.00M673.00M3.44B4.21B
Total Liabilities3.04B3.37B5.34B6.19B5.86B
Stockholders Equity9.31B8.44B8.03B6.14B5.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.43B639.00M6.01B1.64B337.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.15B1.26B6.56B1.91B616.00M
Investing Cash Flow-687.00M-596.00M-334.00M-317.00M-602.00M
Financing Cash Flow-498.00M-1.98B-5.13B-761.00M-314.00M

Yancoal Australia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.48
Price Trends
50DMA
6.00
Negative
100DMA
5.60
Negative
200DMA
5.52
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.20
Positive
RSI
38.95
Neutral
STOCH
27.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:YAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.75, below the 50-day MA of 6.00, and below the 200-day MA of 5.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:YAL.

Yancoal Australia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$7.09B7.3911.04%10.62%-8.45%-24.30%
65
Neutral
$15.28B7.483.19%5.33%4.10%-60.58%
$125.82M29.211.34%
$2.44B6.6222.35%8.74%
$3.49B8.2411.40%2.07%
60
Neutral
AU$536.47M-28.58%4.94%-23.26%-1008.87%
58
Neutral
AU$1.61B415.120.15%9.69%-18.98%-99.05%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:YAL
Yancoal Australia
5.48
0.47
9.47%
BTURF
Bathurst Resources Ltd
0.48
0.01
2.13%
NHPEF
New Hope Corporation Limited
2.90
0.36
14.17%
WHITF
Whitehaven Coal Limited
4.30
0.58
15.59%
AU:SMR
Stanmore Resources Ltd
1.79
-0.73
-28.97%
AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.33
-0.53
-61.63%

Yancoal Australia Corporate Events

Yancoal Australia Submits July 2025 Monthly Return Notice
Aug 4, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for July 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, detailing movements in securities as part of its compliance with Chapter 19B of the Exchange Listing Rules. This submission is part of Yancoal’s ongoing regulatory obligations and reflects its commitment to transparency and adherence to international market standards, potentially impacting its operational credibility and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Updates on Incentive Plan Rights
Jul 18, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has announced updates on its incentive plans, including the vesting and settlement of rights under its 2023 Short Term Incentive Plan (STIP) and 2021 and 2022 Long Term Incentive Plans (LTIP). The 2023 STIP saw 71,879 rights vesting and settled through cash payments, while 33,064 rights were forfeited due to employee resignations. The 2021 and 2022 LTIP rights have been fully exercised and settled through the transfer of existing shares, leaving no remaining rights on issue. These updates reflect Yancoal’s ongoing efforts to manage its employee incentive programs and could impact employee retention and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Expands Stake in Moolarben Joint Venture
Jul 18, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd, through its subsidiary Moolarben Coal Mines Pty Ltd, has agreed to acquire an additional 3.75% interest in the Moolarben Joint Venture for A$110.5 million. This acquisition will increase Yancoal’s economic interest in the joint venture to 98.75%, enhancing its stake in the coal mining sector. The transaction is funded through cash holdings and future cash flows, with the effective economic interest date set for January 1, 2025, pending necessary government approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Reports Strong Q2 2025 Performance Amidst Market Challenges
Jul 17, 2025

Yancoal Australia reported a strong operational performance for the second quarter of 2025, with a 12% increase in ROM coal production compared to the previous quarter. Despite temporary port closures affecting sales, the company maintains a robust financial position with a $1.8 billion cash balance, enabling it to navigate the current cyclical downturn in coal prices. The company is optimistic about meeting its full-year production guidance and anticipates a potential recovery in coal prices due to supply-side reductions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$37.71 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits June 2025 Monthly Return
Jul 2, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for June 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. This submission includes details on the movements in securities, reflecting the company’s ongoing compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules, and signifies its active engagement in the Hong Kong market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits May 2025 Monthly Return Notice
Jun 2, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for May 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. This submission is part of its compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules for movements in securities, specifically concerning its equity issuer and Hong Kong Depositary Receipts. The announcement does not indicate any changes in the company’s authorized or registered share capital, suggesting stability in its financial structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Performance Share Rights to Boost Employee Incentives
May 30, 2025

Yancoal Australia Limited announced the issuance of 62,955 performance share rights under its 2024 Short-Term Incentive Plan (STIP), which are unquoted equity securities. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with corporate performance, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Deferred Share Rights to Director
May 30, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has issued 62,955 deferred share rights to Mr. Ning Yue, Co-Vice Chairman and Director, under its Equity Incentive Plan as part of a Short Term Incentive Plan. These rights, which will vest over two years, are designed to reward achievements aligned with the company’s strategic goals and may be settled in equity or cash, representing a small fraction of the company’s share capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues New Performance Share Rights
May 23, 2025

Yancoal Australia Limited has announced the issuance of 682,609 performance share rights under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for 2025. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with long-term corporate performance, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Issues Performance Share Rights to Executives
May 23, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has issued 682,609 performance share rights to senior executives as part of its 2025 long-term incentive plan. These rights, which are subject to specific performance conditions, may be converted into shares or cash, representing about 0.05% of the company’s issued share capital, thereby aligning executive interests with shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:YAL) stock is a Buy with a A$37.71 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yancoal Australia stock, see the AU:YAL Stock Forecast page.

Yancoal Australia Submits April 2025 Monthly Return Notice
May 8, 2025

Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice for April 2025 to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, as part of its compliance with the Exchange Listing Rules. This submission reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring smooth operations in the competitive coal industry.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 22, 2025