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New Hope Corporation Limited (AU:NHC)
ASX:NHC

New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

New Hope Corporation Limited

(Sydney:NHC)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
▲(20.97%Upside)
New Hope Corporation's strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call contribute to a high overall stock score. The company shows solid profitability and financial stability, supported by low leverage and high equity. However, technical analysis suggests that the stock is currently consolidating, and challenges in liquidity and market conditions need to be addressed for sustained growth.

New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNew Hope Corporation Limited explores for, develops, produces, and processes coal, and oil and gas properties. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other. The company holds interests in two open cut coal mines that produces thermal coal, which include the New Acland project located in Oakey, Queensland; and the Bengalla mine situated in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. It also holds 849 square kilometers of net oil-producing acreage in nine production projects located in the Cooper-Eromanga Basin. In addition, the company engages in the farming, grazing, and land management activities; and operation of bulk handling facility comprising receiving, storage, and shipping of coal, construction sand and aggregates, chips and pellets, and mineral sands, as well as raw and processed minerals, such as bauxite, manganese, diatomite, etc. Further, it is involved in port operation and handling; logistics; and marketing activities. The company has operations in Japan, China, Taiwan, Chile, Korea, Vietnam, India, Australia, and internationally. New Hope Corporation Limited was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNew Hope Corporation Limited generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of coal, which is exported to international markets, including Asia, where demand for energy and steel production is high. The company owns and operates several coal mines, allowing it to control production and ensure a steady supply to meet market demands. Additionally, NHC engages in oil and gas exploration, which contributes to its revenue through the sale of extracted resources. The company's earnings are also influenced by strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capacity and market reach. Fluctuations in global commodity prices, exchange rates, and regulatory changes can significantly impact NHC's revenue streams.

New Hope Corporation Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.44%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance in the first half of 2025 with significant improvements in safety, production, and financial metrics. Despite some operational impacts from a cyclone and challenges in the coal market, the company is positioned well for continued growth and shareholder returns.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improvement in Safety Metrics
The 12-month moving average Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) decreased by 18% over the past six months from 4.99 to 4.08.
Significant Increase in Coal Production
Raw coal production increased by 56% to 8.3 million tonnes, saleable coal production rose by 33% to 5.4 million tonnes, and coal sales increased by 44% compared to the first half of 2024.
Financial Success
Underlying EBITDA increased by 22% to $517 million, and statutory net profit after tax rose by 35% to $340 million compared to the first half of 2024.
Strong Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
The business generated $370 million in cash flow from operating activities and announced a fully franked interim dividend of $0.19 per ordinary share, along with a $100 million share buyback.
Operational Achievements at Bengalla Mine
Saleable coal production increased to 4.2 million tonnes, with FOB cash costs decreasing to $68.30 per sales tonne.
Negative Updates
Impact of Cyclone on Operations
Operations were impacted due to the inability to ship during the cyclone period, and there were rail corridor flooding and delays.
Challenges in Coal Market Dynamics
Recent weakness in the export thermal coal market was driven by a mix of excess supply and soft demand, resulting in decreased coal prices.
Revised Down CapEx Guidance for Bengalla
Bengalla's FY’25 sustaining capital guidance was reduced due to timing delays rather than cutting CapEx.
Company Guidance
During the FY'25 half-year results presentation, New Hope reported significant improvements across various metrics. The company saw a 56% increase in raw coal production to 8.3 million tonnes and a 33% rise in salable coal production to 5.4 million tonnes compared to the first half of FY'24. Coal sales also increased by 44% to 5.4 million tonnes. Financially, New Hope achieved an underlying EBITDA of $517 million, a 22% increase, and a statutory net profit after tax of $340 million, up 35% year-on-year. The company generated $370 million in cash flow from operating activities, which supported investments and shareholder returns, including a fully franked interim dividend of $0.19 per share and an on-market buyback of up to $100 million in ordinary shares. Safety metrics improved with the 12-month moving average TRIFR decreasing by 18% to 4.08. The company also reported lower unit costs, with group FOB cash costs dropping 21% to $77.7 per sales tonne, and revised down Bengalla's sustaining capital guidance to between $185 million and $225 million. Looking forward, New Hope aims to ramp up production at New Acland Mine and maintain increased production levels at Bengalla, while also focusing on organic growth projects like the development of Malabar's Maxwell underground mine.

New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
New Hope Corporation shows solid profitability and a strong balance sheet with low leverage and high equity. However, challenges exist with revenue growth and liquidity, particularly with a significant drop in Free Cash Flow.
Income Statement
75
Positive
New Hope Corporation's income statement shows robust profitability metrics with a Gross Profit Margin of 48.7% and a Net Profit Margin of 27.0% for 2024. However, the company experienced a significant revenue decline of 34.7% year-over-year. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 40.7% and 49.5%, respectively, indicating solid operational efficiency. Despite the revenue dip, profitability metrics remain impressive.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.15, indicating conservative leverage. The Equity Ratio is a robust 73.3%, emphasizing financial stability. Return on Equity is at 18.7%, showcasing efficient use of equity capital. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with low leverage and high equity levels.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow from operations remains positive, but Free Cash Flow has dropped by 78.3% compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in liquidity management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.18, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.61, showing a reduced cash buffer.
BreakdownTTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.96B1.77B2.70B2.54B1.04B1.07B
Gross Profit990.21M859.09M1.74B1.55B375.48M307.39M
EBITDA900.34M873.83M1.70B1.57B286.75M-48.31M
Net Income564.49M475.86M1.09B983.01M79.35M-156.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.54B3.47B3.24B3.43B2.78B2.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments807.27M824.52M730.65M815.71M424.66M70.38M
Total Debt361.19M372.87M84.92M288.52M597.90M439.10M
Total Liabilities881.03M925.42M721.90M1.11B1.03B933.99M
Stockholders Equity2.66B2.54B2.52B2.32B1.75B1.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow490.77M289.66M1.34B1.06B235.40M142.09M
Operating Cash Flow748.25M561.96M1.52B1.14B296.06M255.46M
Investing Cash Flow-551.96M-508.54M-98.29M-222.52M-42.76M-108.78M
Financing Cash Flow-83.08M-145.40M-1.41B-628.13M98.53M-135.57M

New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.72
Price Trends
50DMA
3.77
Negative
100DMA
3.84
Negative
200DMA
4.23
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
41.20
Neutral
STOCH
5.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.82, below the 50-day MA of 3.77, and below the 200-day MA of 4.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NHC.

New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUNHC
77
Outperform
$3.14B5.5722.35%10.16%-1.17%-14.64%
52
Neutral
C$2.91B-0.88-3.26%6.37%2.20%-43.43%
$122.72M4.1312.65%
$2.97B26.563.39%3.06%
$5.01B6.0313.93%8.90%
AUSMR
70
Neutral
AU$1.65B5.6810.52%11.78%-13.91%-58.85%
AUCRN
52
Neutral
AU$201.17M-16.23%14.49%-17.57%-1132.91%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
3.72
-0.74
-16.55%
BTURF
Bathurst Resources Ltd
0.49
-0.05
-9.26%
WHITF
Whitehaven Coal Limited
3.53
-1.37
-27.96%
YACAF
Yancoal Australia
3.77
-0.16
-4.07%
AU:SMR
Stanmore Resources Ltd
1.91
-1.41
-42.47%
AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.14
-1.02
-87.93%

New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events

New Hope Corporation Updates Share Buy-Back Progress
Jun 5, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program. As of June 6, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 2,534,684 ordinary fully paid securities, including 113,856 shares bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
Jun 5, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 2,420,828 ordinary fully paid securities bought back as of June 5, 2025. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Buy-Back Program
Jun 2, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of June 3, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 2,401,676 ordinary fully paid securities, including 135,869 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Jun 1, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced a daily update on its ongoing share buy-back program. The company reported buying back 81,849 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, adding to a total of 2,183,958 securities repurchased since the program’s inception. This buy-back initiative is part of New Hope’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 25, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, reporting a total of 2,154,560 ordinary fully paid securities bought back as of May 26, 2025. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 22, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, reporting the repurchase of 70,024 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, bringing the total to 2,074,498 shares bought back. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting a proactive approach in its financial management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
May 21, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, with a daily notification indicating the repurchase of 29,440 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of outstanding shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Sell with a A$4.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 20, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program, with a total of 1,966,397 securities bought back before the previous day and an additional 78,661 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Sell with a A$4.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 19, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of May 20, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 1,415,406 ordinary fully paid securities, with an additional 550,991 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Sell with a A$4.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Reports Stable Production Amid Pricing Challenges
May 18, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited reported a decrease in its underlying EBITDA by 27% due to lower realized pricing, despite maintaining stable coal production levels. The company also noted improvements in safety metrics, with a reduction in both the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate and the All-Injury Frequency Rate, reflecting enhanced safety performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Sell with a A$4.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Buy-Back Program
Apr 30, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of April 30, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 1,415,406 ordinary fully paid securities. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Apr 28, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program. As of April 29, 2025, the company reported the buy-back of 4,513 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, contributing to a total of 1,410,507 securities bought back to date. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Market Buy-Back
Apr 22, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back of ordinary fully paid securities. As of the latest notification, the company has bought back a total of 1,407,629 securities, with an additional 2,878 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Apr 9, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program, revealing that a total of 357,000 ordinary fully paid securities were bought back on the previous day, adding to the 1,050,629 securities already acquired. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting a proactive approach to market conditions and investor interests.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Market Buy-Back Progress
Apr 6, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of April 7, 2025, the company reported the repurchase of 164,714 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, adding to a total of 545,238 securities bought back prior. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Apr 2, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of April 3, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 333,469 ordinary fully paid securities, including 295,872 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Limited Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
Apr 1, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program, with a recent acquisition of 37,597 ordinary fully paid securities. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025