New Hope Corporation Limited (AU:NHC)
ASX:NHC
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New Hope Corporation Limited
(Sydney:NHC)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
AU$7.00
▲(19.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals supported by a strong balance sheet and high operating margins, alongside strong technical uptrend confirmation. Offsetting factors are declining revenue and sharply lower free cash flow growth, plus coal-price weakness noted on the earnings call; valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend but not clearly cheap.
Positive Factors
High operating margins
Sustained EBIT and EBITDA margins near 36% and 47% indicate durable operational efficiency and cost control across mining and processing. High margins provide a buffer versus commodity price swings, support reinvestment and dividends, and underpin long-term cash generation resilience.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue
A double-digit revenue decline erodes the top line that underpins margins and cash flow. If continuing, shrinking revenue limits scale advantages, pressures unit economics, and forces reliance on cost cuts to preserve profits, raising medium-term execution and growth risks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High operating margins
Sustained EBIT and EBITDA margins near 36% and 47% indicate durable operational efficiency and cost control across mining and processing. High margins provide a buffer versus commodity price swings, support reinvestment and dividends, and underpin long-term cash generation resilience.
Read all positive factors
New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.93B
Dividend Yield8.48%
Average Volume (3M)2.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth-1.53%
EPS Growth-7.57%
CountryAU
Employees1,084
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding843,371,770
10 Day Avg. Volume2,047,693
30 Day Avg. Volume2,200,483
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.12
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio13.59
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.92Price Target Upside-15.81% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.71B
New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
New Hope Corporation Limited explores for, develops, produces, and processes coal, and oil and gas properties. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other. The company holds interests in...
How the Company Makes Money
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New Hope Corporation Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 15, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong operational and financial performance with significant increases in coal production and improved safety metrics, despite challenges posed by weather, logistics, and a declining coal price. The company continues to provide substantial shareholder returns through dividends.Positive Updates
Increased Coal Production
Run-of-mine coal production increased by 33% to 16.4 million tonnes, saleable coal production rose by 18% to 10.7 million tonnes, and coal sales increased by 21% to 10.5 million tonnes despite challenging conditions.
Negative Updates
Challenges Due to Weather and Logistics
Significant weather events and logistics constraints led to elevated shipping queues, increased rail cancellations, and stock management challenges.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Increased Coal Production
Run-of-mine coal production increased by 33% to 16.4 million tonnes, saleable coal production rose by 18% to 10.7 million tonnes, and coal sales increased by 21% to 10.5 million tonnes despite challenging conditions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call, New Hope Group provided a comprehensive overview of its performance and strategic guidance for the 2025 financial year. The company reported a 33% increase in run-of-mine coal production to 16.4 million tonnes and an 18% rise in saleable coal production to 10.7 million tonnes. Despite coal prices reaching a four-year low, the group achieved a statutory net profit after tax of $439 million and an underlying EBITDA of $766 million. Safety metrics improved significantly, with the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) decreasing by 35% to 3.22. Financially, New Hope generated $571 million in cash flow from operating activities, enabling it to declare a fully franked final dividend of $0.15 per share, bringing the total for FY '25 to $0.34 per share. The group maintained a focus on cost management, achieving a group FOB cash cost improvement of 8% to $82.40 per sales tonne. Looking ahead, New Hope aims to continue its organic growth with the ramp-up of the New Acland mine and the development of Malabar's Maxwell Underground mine, targeting a significant increase in coal production over the next three years.New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.59B | 1.75B | 1.77B | 2.70B | 2.54B | 1.04B |
| Gross Profit | 588.97M | 801.96M | 859.09M | 1.74B | 1.55B | 375.48M |
| EBITDA | 564.87M | 820.73M | 873.83M | 1.70B | 1.57B | 286.75M |
| Net Income | 153.36M | 439.37M | 475.86M | 1.09B | 983.01M | 79.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.49B | 3.54B | 3.47B | 3.24B | 3.43B | 2.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 616.78M | 707.28M | 824.52M | 730.65M | 815.71M | 424.66M |
| Total Debt | 382.58M | 372.85M | 372.87M | 84.92M | 288.52M | 597.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 894.41M | 911.04M | 925.42M | 721.90M | 1.11B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.60B | 2.63B | 2.54B | 2.52B | 2.32B | 1.75B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 178.97M | 259.61M | 289.66M | 1.34B | 1.06B | 235.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 438.93M | 570.80M | 561.96M | 1.52B | 1.14B | 296.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -219.17M | -505.35M | -508.54M | -98.29M | -222.52M | -42.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -307.69M | -372.75M | -145.40M | -1.41B | -628.13M | 98.53M |
New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
5.84
Price Trends
4.95
Positive
4.48
Positive
4.23
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
63.71
Neutral
63.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.40, above the 50-day MA of 4.95, and above the 200-day MA of 4.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NHC.
New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$4.93B | 17.50 | 5.87% | 8.48% | -1.53% | -7.57% | |
72 Outperform | AU$10.92B | 14.86 | 4.93% | 11.73% | -8.45% | -24.30% | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.44B | 23.23 | 11.25% | 1.92% | 52.51% | 82.60% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | AU$2.33B | -42.81 | -3.46% | 7.32% | -18.98% | -99.05% | |
50 Neutral | AU$147.63M | -13.68 | -2.06% | ― | -5.47% | -86.96% | |
44 Neutral | AU$544.85M | -0.80 | -52.66% | 4.79% | -23.91% | -352.91% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
5.84
2.46
72.53%
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AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.33
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20.37%
New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events
New Hope Cuts Convertible Note Conversion Price After Extraordinary Dividend
Apr 1, 2026
New Hope Corporation has notified holders of its A$300 million 4.25% senior convertible notes due 2029 of an adjustment to the notes’ conversion terms. Following the declaration of an extraordinary cash dividend of A$0.10 per share payable o...
New Hope Group outlines FY26 half-year results and confirms reserves
Mar 16, 2026
New Hope Group has released a presentation outlining its FY26 half-year results, providing investors with a high-level overview of financial performance and operational metrics in Australian dollars. The company reiterates that some figures are no...
New Hope Corporation Declares AUD 0.10 Interim Dividend for FY2026
Mar 16, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has declared an ordinary interim dividend for the first half of FY2026, payable on its ordinary fully paid shares. The dividend is set at AUD 0.10 per share, reflecting the company’s continued practice of returni...
New Hope profit slumps but dividend and DRP maintained
Mar 16, 2026
New Hope Corporation has reported a sharp downturn in its half-year statutory results for the period to 31 January 2026, with revenue from ordinary activities falling 20.1% to $814.4 million and net profit attributable to members dropping 84% to $...
New Hope sets March date for FY26 half-year results webcast
Mar 9, 2026
New Hope Corporation will release its half-year results for the period ending 31 January 2026 on 17 March 2026, with Chief Executive Officer Rob Bishop and the executive team to present the company’s performance via webcast. The scheduled in...
New Hope Extends On-Market Share Buy-Back for Another Year
Mar 3, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has updated the market on its existing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares listed on the ASX under the code NHC. The company confirmed that the buy-back remains focused on its ordinary e...
New Hope Extends Flexible On-Market Share Buyback to 2027
Mar 3, 2026
New Hope Corporation has extended its existing on-market share buyback program until 2 March 2027, continuing a capital management strategy aimed at enhancing shareholder value through active adjustment of its capital base. The program, conducted ...
New Hope sets date for FY26 Q2 results and investor webcast
Feb 9, 2026
New Hope Corporation will release its quarterly activities report for the period ending 31 January 2026 on 16 February 2026, outlining operational and financial performance for the second quarter of FY26. The company’s CEO Rob Bishop and mem...
New Hope Issues 50,265 New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Feb 2, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has notified the market of the issue of 50,265 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The move slightly increases the companyR...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.