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New Hope Corporation Limited (AU:NHC)
ASX:NHC
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New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:NHC

New Hope Corporation Limited

(Sydney:NHC)

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Outperform 80 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
AU$5.00
▲(18.76% Upside)
New Hope Corporation's stock is rated highly due to its strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive technical indicators. The company's robust earnings call further supports the stock's potential, despite some operational challenges and market weaknesses. The low P/E ratio and high dividend yield enhance its appeal as an investment.

New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNew Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) is an Australian diversified energy company primarily engaged in the production and sale of thermal coal. The company operates through its mining and coal handling segments across Australia, focusing on the extraction, processing, and export of coal. NHC's core services also include port operations and logistics management, ensuring efficient coal transportation and delivery to global markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyNew Hope Corporation Limited generates revenue predominantly through the extraction and sale of thermal coal. The company's key revenue streams involve mining operations that extract coal, which is then processed and sold to both domestic and international markets, particularly in Asia. NHC's port operations and logistics services facilitate the efficient export of coal, contributing to its earnings. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, although the specifics of such partnerships are not disclosed. Factors such as global coal demand, export market conditions, and commodity prices significantly influence NHC's revenue.

New Hope Corporation Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 15, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong operational and financial performance with significant increases in coal production and improved safety metrics, despite challenges posed by weather, logistics, and a declining coal price. The company continues to provide substantial shareholder returns through dividends.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Coal Production
Run-of-mine coal production increased by 33% to 16.4 million tonnes, saleable coal production rose by 18% to 10.7 million tonnes, and coal sales increased by 21% to 10.5 million tonnes despite challenging conditions.
Improved Safety Metrics
The 12-month moving average TRIFR decreased by 35% to 3.22, marking a significant improvement in safety.
Strong Financial Performance
The company reported an underlying EBITDA of $766 million and a statutory net profit after tax of $439 million.
Significant Dividend Payout
A fully franked final dividend of $0.15 per share was declared, bringing total dividends for FY '25 to $0.34 per share, with a gross dividend yield of 12%.
Positive Community Impact
Rehabilitated 36% of disturbed land for mining operations, with most of the land used for agricultural purposes post-rehabilitation.
Negative Updates
Challenges Due to Weather and Logistics
Significant weather events and logistics constraints led to elevated shipping queues, increased rail cancellations, and stock management challenges.
Coal Price Decline
The Newcastle export coal price hit a 4-year low, impacting earnings despite a strong operational performance.
Market Oversupply and Economic Uncertainty
The thermal coal market faced oversupply and economic uncertainty, leading to a softening in coal prices.
Company Guidance
During the call, New Hope Group provided a comprehensive overview of its performance and strategic guidance for the 2025 financial year. The company reported a 33% increase in run-of-mine coal production to 16.4 million tonnes and an 18% rise in saleable coal production to 10.7 million tonnes. Despite coal prices reaching a four-year low, the group achieved a statutory net profit after tax of $439 million and an underlying EBITDA of $766 million. Safety metrics improved significantly, with the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) decreasing by 35% to 3.22. Financially, New Hope generated $571 million in cash flow from operating activities, enabling it to declare a fully franked final dividend of $0.15 per share, bringing the total for FY '25 to $0.34 per share. The group maintained a focus on cost management, achieving a group FOB cash cost improvement of 8% to $82.40 per sales tonne. Looking ahead, New Hope aims to continue its organic growth with the ramp-up of the New Acland mine and the development of Malabar's Maxwell Underground mine, targeting a significant increase in coal production over the next three years.

New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
New Hope Corporation demonstrates solid profitability and a strong balance sheet, but faces challenges with revenue growth and liquidity. The company's financial stability is supported by low leverage and high equity, while its profitability remains strong despite revenue pressures. The decline in Free Cash Flow highlights a potential area for improvement in cash management.
Income Statement
75
Positive
New Hope Corporation's income statement shows robust profitability metrics with a Gross Profit Margin of 48.7% and a Net Profit Margin of 27.0% for 2024. However, the company experienced a significant revenue decline of 34.7% year-over-year. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 40.7% and 49.5%, respectively, indicating solid operational efficiency. Despite the revenue dip, profitability metrics remain impressive.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.15, indicating conservative leverage. The Equity Ratio is a robust 73.3%, emphasizing financial stability. Return on Equity is at 18.7%, showcasing efficient use of equity capital. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with low leverage and high equity levels.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow from operations remains positive, but Free Cash Flow has dropped by 78.3% compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in liquidity management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.18, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.61, showing a reduced cash buffer.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.96B1.77B2.70B2.54B1.04B1.07B
Gross Profit990.21M859.09M1.74B1.55B375.48M307.39M
EBITDA900.34M873.83M1.70B1.57B286.75M-48.31M
Net Income564.49M475.86M1.09B983.01M79.35M-156.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.54B3.47B3.24B3.43B2.78B2.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments807.27M824.52M730.65M815.71M424.66M70.38M
Total Debt361.19M372.87M84.92M288.52M597.90M439.10M
Total Liabilities881.03M925.42M721.90M1.11B1.03B933.99M
Stockholders Equity2.66B2.54B2.52B2.32B1.75B1.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow490.77M289.66M1.34B1.06B235.40M142.09M
Operating Cash Flow748.25M561.96M1.52B1.14B296.06M255.46M
Investing Cash Flow-551.96M-508.54M-98.29M-222.52M-42.76M-108.78M
Financing Cash Flow-83.08M-145.40M-1.41B-628.13M98.53M-135.57M

New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.21
Price Trends
50DMA
4.35
Negative
100DMA
4.08
Positive
200DMA
4.15
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
42.07
Neutral
STOCH
25.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.40, below the 50-day MA of 4.35, and above the 200-day MA of 4.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NHC.

New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$3.54B8.8017.04%9.74%-1.53%-7.57%
70
Outperform
7.32B7.6213.05%10.56%-8.45%-24.30%
67
Neutral
5.51B8.2311.38%2.25%52.51%82.60%
64
Neutral
182.38M31.280.00%-5.47%-86.96%
61
Neutral
637.05M-1.35-10.15%4.40%-23.26%-1008.87%
58
Neutral
1.72B443.0210.47%9.03%-18.98%-99.05%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
4.21
>-0.01
-0.24%
BTURF
Bathurst Resources Ltd
0.50
0.01
2.04%
WHITF
Whitehaven Coal Limited
4.44
0.50
12.69%
YACAF
Yancoal Australia
3.74
0.21
5.95%
AU:SMR
Stanmore Resources Ltd
1.92
-0.70
-26.72%
AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.37
-0.55
-59.78%

New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events

New Hope Corporation Reports Strong Coal Production Amidst Operational Challenges
Aug 18, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited reported a strong operational performance for the 2025 financial year, with a notable 18.1% increase in saleable coal production compared to the previous year. The company achieved an underlying EBITDA of $765.8 million, although the quarterly EBITDA saw a decline due to logistics constraints and adverse weather conditions affecting sales volumes at the Bengalla Mine. Safety metrics showed improvement, with a decrease in the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to safety.

New Hope Corporation Limited Issues Performance Rights
Aug 4, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced the issuance of 9,056 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are subject to transfer restrictions and are not listed on the ASX until the restrictions are lifted, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize and retain key personnel.

New Hope Corporation Reports Lapse of Performance Rights
Aug 4, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited announced the cessation of 6,885 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s operations by potentially affecting employee incentives and could influence stakeholder perceptions regarding the company’s ability to meet performance conditions.

New Hope Corporation Announces Security Cessation
Jul 25, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited announced the cessation of 2,534,684 ordinary fully paid securities due to an on-market buy-back as of July 25, 2025. This move is part of the company’s capital management strategy, potentially impacting its share value and market positioning by reducing the number of shares available in the market.

New Hope Corporation Updates Share Buy-Back Progress
Jun 5, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program. As of June 6, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 2,534,684 ordinary fully paid securities, including 113,856 shares bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
Jun 5, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 2,420,828 ordinary fully paid securities bought back as of June 5, 2025. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Buy-Back Program
Jun 2, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of June 3, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 2,401,676 ordinary fully paid securities, including 135,869 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Jun 1, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced a daily update on its ongoing share buy-back program. The company reported buying back 81,849 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, adding to a total of 2,183,958 securities repurchased since the program’s inception. This buy-back initiative is part of New Hope’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 25, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, reporting a total of 2,154,560 ordinary fully paid securities bought back as of May 26, 2025. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 22, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, reporting the repurchase of 70,024 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, bringing the total to 2,074,498 shares bought back. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting a proactive approach in its financial management.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
May 21, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, with a daily notification indicating the repurchase of 29,440 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of outstanding shares.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 20, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program, with a total of 1,966,397 securities bought back before the previous day and an additional 78,661 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 19, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of May 20, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 1,415,406 ordinary fully paid securities, with an additional 550,991 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Reports Stable Production Amid Pricing Challenges
May 18, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited reported a decrease in its underlying EBITDA by 27% due to lower realized pricing, despite maintaining stable coal production levels. The company also noted improvements in safety metrics, with a reduction in both the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate and the All-Injury Frequency Rate, reflecting enhanced safety performance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025