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New Hope Corporation Limited (AU:NHC)
ASX:NHC
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New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:NHC

New Hope Corporation Limited

(Sydney:NHC)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
AU$5.00
▲(14.16% Upside)
New Hope Corporation's stock is rated highly due to its strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive technical indicators. The company's robust earnings call further supports the stock's potential, despite some operational challenges and market weaknesses. The low P/E ratio and high dividend yield enhance its appeal as an investment.

New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNew Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) is an Australian diversified energy company primarily engaged in the production and sale of thermal coal. The company operates through its mining and coal handling segments across Australia, focusing on the extraction, processing, and export of coal. NHC's core services also include port operations and logistics management, ensuring efficient coal transportation and delivery to global markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyNew Hope Corporation Limited generates revenue predominantly through the extraction and sale of thermal coal. The company's key revenue streams involve mining operations that extract coal, which is then processed and sold to both domestic and international markets, particularly in Asia. NHC's port operations and logistics services facilitate the efficient export of coal, contributing to its earnings. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, although the specifics of such partnerships are not disclosed. Factors such as global coal demand, export market conditions, and commodity prices significantly influence NHC's revenue.

New Hope Corporation Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong production and financial performance with significant shareholder returns and safety improvements. However, operational challenges due to a cyclone and market weakness in thermal coal were noted. Overall, the positive aspects of increased production, financial gains, and safety improvements outweighed the lowlights.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Coal Production
Coal production saw significant growth with wrong coal production increasing by 56% to 8.3 million tonnes, salable coal production up 33% to 5.4 million tonnes, and coal sales up 44%.
Financial Performance Improvement
Underlying EBITDA increased by 22% to $517 million, and statutory net profit after tax rose 35% to $340 million compared to the first half of 2024.
Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
The business generated $370 million in cash flow from operating activities, enabling investments in growth and returns to shareholders, including a $0.19 per share fully franked interim dividend and a $100 million share buyback.
Safety Improvements
The company's 12-month moving average TRIFR decreased by 18% from 4.99 to 4.08, indicating an improvement in safety metrics.
Operational Efficiency
Group FOB cash costs decreased by 21% to $77.7 per sales tonne, with significant production increases at Bengalla Mine and New Acland Mine.
Negative Updates
Impact of Cyclone on Operations
Cyclone impacted operations with delays in shipping and rail corridor flooding, although there was no infrastructure damage.
Revised Capital Expenditure Guidance
Bengalla Mine's FY’25 sustaining capital guidance was revised down due to timing delays and recent decreases in coal prices.
Weakness in Export Thermal Coal Market
The export thermal coal market experienced weakness due to excess supply and soft demand, influenced by a mild Northern Hemisphere winter and global economic unease.
Company Guidance
During the FY'25 half-year results presentation, New Hope reported a strong performance with significant improvements across various metrics. The company achieved a 56% increase in raw coal production to 8.3 million tonnes and a 33% rise in saleable coal production to 5.4 million tonnes compared to the first half of 2024. Coal sales also surged by 44% to 5.4 million tonnes. Financially, New Hope delivered a 22% increase in underlying EBITDA, reaching $517 million, and a 35% rise in statutory net profit after tax, amounting to $340 million. Cash flow from operating activities stood at $370 million, supporting investments and shareholder returns. The board declared a fully franked interim dividend of $0.19 per share and announced an on-market buyback of up to $100 million. Safety improvements were noted with a reduction in the 12-month moving average TRIFR by 18%, and operational efficiency was highlighted by a 21% decrease in group FOB cash costs to $77.7 per sales tonne. The company also revised down Bengalla Mine's sustaining capital guidance to $185 million–$225 million, focusing on capital optimization. Looking ahead, New Hope is targeting a production ramp-up at New Acland Mine to achieve a 5 million tonnes per annum rate by FY’27 and maintaining increased production levels at Bengalla, while also expanding their interest in Malabar Resources to 22.97%.

New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
New Hope Corporation demonstrates solid profitability and a strong balance sheet, but faces challenges with revenue growth and liquidity. The company's financial stability is supported by low leverage and high equity, while its profitability remains strong despite revenue pressures. The decline in Free Cash Flow highlights a potential area for improvement in cash management.
Income Statement
75
Positive
New Hope Corporation's income statement shows robust profitability metrics with a Gross Profit Margin of 48.7% and a Net Profit Margin of 27.0% for 2024. However, the company experienced a significant revenue decline of 34.7% year-over-year. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 40.7% and 49.5%, respectively, indicating solid operational efficiency. Despite the revenue dip, profitability metrics remain impressive.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.15, indicating conservative leverage. The Equity Ratio is a robust 73.3%, emphasizing financial stability. Return on Equity is at 18.7%, showcasing efficient use of equity capital. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with low leverage and high equity levels.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow from operations remains positive, but Free Cash Flow has dropped by 78.3% compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in liquidity management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.18, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.61, showing a reduced cash buffer.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.96B1.77B2.70B2.54B1.04B1.07B
Gross Profit990.21M859.09M1.74B1.55B375.48M307.39M
EBITDA900.34M873.83M1.70B1.57B286.75M-48.31M
Net Income564.49M475.86M1.09B983.01M79.35M-156.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.54B3.47B3.24B3.43B2.78B2.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments807.27M824.52M730.65M815.71M424.66M70.38M
Total Debt361.19M372.87M84.92M288.52M597.90M439.10M
Total Liabilities881.03M925.42M721.90M1.11B1.03B933.99M
Stockholders Equity2.66B2.54B2.52B2.32B1.75B1.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow490.77M289.66M1.34B1.06B235.40M142.09M
Operating Cash Flow748.25M561.96M1.52B1.14B296.06M255.46M
Investing Cash Flow-551.96M-508.54M-98.29M-222.52M-42.76M-108.78M
Financing Cash Flow-83.08M-145.40M-1.41B-628.13M98.53M-135.57M

New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price4.38
Price Trends
50DMA
4.19
Positive
100DMA
3.96
Positive
200DMA
4.15
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Positive
RSI
51.81
Neutral
STOCH
49.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.42, above the 50-day MA of 4.19, and above the 200-day MA of 4.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:NHC.

New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$3.72B6.6022.35%9.21%-1.17%-14.64%
65
Neutral
$15.47B7.303.02%5.25%4.27%-62.52%
$114.08M29.761.34%
$3.63B8.2811.40%3.09%
$4.70B7.5111.04%9.05%
60
Neutral
AU$695.73M-28.58%4.13%-23.26%-1008.87%
58
Neutral
AU$1.77B455.810.15%9.08%-18.98%-99.05%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
4.38
0.31
7.75%
BTURF
Bathurst Resources Ltd
0.49
0.02
4.26%
WHITF
Whitehaven Coal Limited
4.25
-0.16
-3.63%
YACAF
Yancoal Australia
3.63
0.29
8.68%
AU:SMR
Stanmore Resources Ltd
1.91
-0.87
-31.29%
AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.38
-0.77
-66.96%

New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events

New Hope Corporation Reports Strong Coal Production Amidst Operational Challenges
Aug 18, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited reported a strong operational performance for the 2025 financial year, with a notable 18.1% increase in saleable coal production compared to the previous year. The company achieved an underlying EBITDA of $765.8 million, although the quarterly EBITDA saw a decline due to logistics constraints and adverse weather conditions affecting sales volumes at the Bengalla Mine. Safety metrics showed improvement, with a decrease in the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to safety.

New Hope Corporation Limited Issues Performance Rights
Aug 4, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced the issuance of 9,056 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are subject to transfer restrictions and are not listed on the ASX until the restrictions are lifted, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize and retain key personnel.

New Hope Corporation Reports Lapse of Performance Rights
Aug 4, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited announced the cessation of 6,885 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s operations by potentially affecting employee incentives and could influence stakeholder perceptions regarding the company’s ability to meet performance conditions.

New Hope Corporation Announces Security Cessation
Jul 25, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited announced the cessation of 2,534,684 ordinary fully paid securities due to an on-market buy-back as of July 25, 2025. This move is part of the company’s capital management strategy, potentially impacting its share value and market positioning by reducing the number of shares available in the market.

New Hope Corporation Updates Share Buy-Back Progress
Jun 5, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program. As of June 6, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 2,534,684 ordinary fully paid securities, including 113,856 shares bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
Jun 5, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 2,420,828 ordinary fully paid securities bought back as of June 5, 2025. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Buy-Back Program
Jun 2, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of June 3, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 2,401,676 ordinary fully paid securities, including 135,869 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Jun 1, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced a daily update on its ongoing share buy-back program. The company reported buying back 81,849 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, adding to a total of 2,183,958 securities repurchased since the program’s inception. This buy-back initiative is part of New Hope’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 25, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, reporting a total of 2,154,560 ordinary fully paid securities bought back as of May 26, 2025. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 22, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, reporting the repurchase of 70,024 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, bringing the total to 2,074,498 shares bought back. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting a proactive approach in its financial management.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
May 21, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, with a daily notification indicating the repurchase of 29,440 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of outstanding shares.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
May 20, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program, with a total of 1,966,397 securities bought back before the previous day and an additional 78,661 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 19, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of May 20, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 1,415,406 ordinary fully paid securities, with an additional 550,991 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

New Hope Corporation Reports Stable Production Amid Pricing Challenges
May 18, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited reported a decrease in its underlying EBITDA by 27% due to lower realized pricing, despite maintaining stable coal production levels. The company also noted improvements in safety metrics, with a reduction in both the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate and the All-Injury Frequency Rate, reflecting enhanced safety performance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025