New Hope Corporation Limited (AU:NHC)
ASX:NHC
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New Hope Corporation Limited
(Sydney:NHC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$6.50
â–²(23.11% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:04/16/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong margins and a very solid balance sheet are offset by declining revenue and sharply weaker free cash flow growth. Technicals add moderate support with a longer-term uptrend but neutral momentum indicators. Valuation is fair, with the dividend yield providing some support but the P/E not indicating a clear discount.
Positive Factors
Strong operating margins
High EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate durable operational efficiency versus peers in coal. Sustained margins provide cushioning against commodity price swings, support internal cash generation for reinvestment or distributions, and reflect cost competitiveness in mining and logistics.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue
Sustained revenue contraction erodes scale economics and can outpace cost reductions, pressuring long-term profitability and margins. If volumes or realizations remain weak, the company may face reduced cash generation and limited ability to fund growth or distributions over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating margins
High EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate durable operational efficiency versus peers in coal. Sustained margins provide cushioning against commodity price swings, support internal cash generation for reinvestment or distributions, and reflect cost competitiveness in mining and logistics.
Read all positive factors
New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.63B
Dividend Yield8.48%
Average Volume (3M)2.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.6
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth-20.55%
EPS Growth-72.75%
CountryAU
Employees1,084
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding843,773,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,047,693
30 Day Avg. Volume2,200,483
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio13.59
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.57Price Target Upside5.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.77B
New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
New Hope Corporation Limited is an Australian entity primarily engaged in the exploration, development, extraction, and processing of coal, crude oil, and natural gas. Its operations are organized into three main segments: coal mining in Queenslan...
How the Company Makes Money
NHC makes money primarily by selling thermal coal produced from its mining operations. Revenue is largely driven by (1) sales volumes (tonnes sold) and (2) realized coal prices (often influenced by global benchmark coal prices, contract terms, and...
New Hope Corporation Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 15, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong operational and financial performance with significant increases in coal production and improved safety metrics, despite challenges posed by weather, logistics, and a declining coal price. The company continues to provide substantial shareholder returns through dividends.Positive Updates
Increased Coal Production
Run-of-mine coal production increased by 33% to 16.4 million tonnes, saleable coal production rose by 18% to 10.7 million tonnes, and coal sales increased by 21% to 10.5 million tonnes despite challenging conditions.
Negative Updates
Challenges Due to Weather and Logistics
Significant weather events and logistics constraints led to elevated shipping queues, increased rail cancellations, and stock management challenges.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Increased Coal Production
Run-of-mine coal production increased by 33% to 16.4 million tonnes, saleable coal production rose by 18% to 10.7 million tonnes, and coal sales increased by 21% to 10.5 million tonnes despite challenging conditions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call, New Hope Group provided a comprehensive overview of its performance and strategic guidance for the 2025 financial year. The company reported a 33% increase in run-of-mine coal production to 16.4 million tonnes and an 18% rise in saleable coal production to 10.7 million tonnes. Despite coal prices reaching a four-year low, the group achieved a statutory net profit after tax of $439 million and an underlying EBITDA of $766 million. Safety metrics improved significantly, with the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) decreasing by 35% to 3.22. Financially, New Hope generated $571 million in cash flow from operating activities, enabling it to declare a fully franked final dividend of $0.15 per share, bringing the total for FY '25 to $0.34 per share. The group maintained a focus on cost management, achieving a group FOB cash cost improvement of 8% to $82.40 per sales tonne. Looking ahead, New Hope aims to continue its organic growth with the ramp-up of the New Acland mine and the development of Malabar's Maxwell Underground mine, targeting a significant increase in coal production over the next three years.New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.59B | 1.75B | 1.77B | 2.70B | 2.54B | 1.04B |
| Gross Profit | 588.97M | 801.96M | 859.09M | 1.74B | 1.55B | 375.48M |
| EBITDA | 564.87M | 820.73M | 873.83M | 1.70B | 1.57B | 286.75M |
| Net Income | 153.36M | 439.37M | 475.86M | 1.09B | 983.01M | 79.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.49B | 3.54B | 3.47B | 3.24B | 3.43B | 2.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 616.78M | 707.28M | 824.52M | 730.65M | 815.71M | 424.66M |
| Total Debt | 382.58M | 372.85M | 372.87M | 84.92M | 288.52M | 597.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 894.41M | 911.04M | 925.42M | 721.90M | 1.11B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.60B | 2.63B | 2.54B | 2.52B | 2.32B | 1.75B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 178.97M | 259.61M | 289.66M | 1.34B | 1.06B | 235.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 438.93M | 570.80M | 561.96M | 1.52B | 1.14B | 296.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -219.17M | -505.35M | -508.54M | -98.29M | -222.52M | -42.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -307.69M | -372.75M | -145.40M | -1.41B | -628.13M | 98.53M |
New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
5.28
Price Trends
5.50
Negative
5.25
Positive
4.63
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
43.87
Neutral
21.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.81, below the 50-day MA of 5.50, and above the 200-day MA of 4.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NHC.
New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | AU$4.63B | 29.62 | 5.87% | 8.48% | -20.55% | -72.75% | |
66 Neutral | AU$6.66B | 10.39 | 11.25% | 1.92% | -13.80% | 268.90% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | AU$7.91B | 17.17 | 4.93% | 11.73% | -13.48% | -63.82% | |
62 Neutral | AU$2.22B | -32.10 | -2.82% | 7.32% | -19.76% | -125.65% | |
44 Neutral | AU$127.58M | -1.09 | -41.52% | ― | -6.64% | -2196.77% | |
42 Neutral | AU$393.97M | -0.39 | -98.22% | 4.79% | -14.94% | -255.82% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
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48.82%
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Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
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New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events
New Hope Restructures Capped Call Options, Economic Long Position Drops Below 5%
May 29, 2026
New Hope Corporation has revised the terms of its existing capped call options, originally arranged in connection with its senior unsecured convertible notes due 2029, so that these options now apply to a portion of its recently issued A$300 milli...
New Hope sets May webcast for Q3 FY26 quarterly activities report
May 11, 2026
New Hope Corporation plans to release its Quarterly Activities Report for the period ending 30 April 2026 on 18 May 2026, providing an update on its operational and financial performance. The announcement signals continued engagement with capital ...
JPMorgan Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in New Hope Corporation
May 10, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be a substantial holder in New Hope Corporation Limited, after a series of transactions involving securities lending, rehypothecation and proprietary trading in the company’s ordinary sha...
New Hope Corporation Lapses 31,179 Performance Rights After Conditions Not Met
May 7, 2026
New Hope Corporation has reported the lapse of 31,179 performance rights, which ceased on March 20, 2026 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or could no longer be satisfied. The cancellation of these conditional securities m...
New Hope Corporation Cancels NHCAA Securities Following Buy-Back
Apr 30, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of 1,416.5 securities with the code NHCAA. The securities have been cancelled pursuant to another form of buy-back, reflecting the company’s ongoing capital management activi...
JPMorgan Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in New Hope Corporation
Apr 26, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have filed notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in New Hope Corporation Limited as of 22 April 2026. The change follows a series of transactions and securities lending arrangements across m...
New Hope refinances with A$300m 2032 convertible notes, retires 2029 issue
Apr 23, 2026
New Hope Corporation has completed the settlement of a A$300 million issuance of 2.625% senior unsecured convertible notes due 2032 and a concurrent repurchase of A$293.3 million of its existing 2029 convertible notes. The existing notes repurchas...
New Hope launches A$300m convertible note offer to reshape capital structure
Apr 20, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has launched an offer of fully paid, unsecured, unsubordinated convertible notes to raise approximately A$300 million, with the notes convertible into ordinary shares or, at the company’s discretion, settled in c...
New Hope launches A$300m 2032 convertible notes to refinance 2029 issue
Apr 15, 2026
New Hope Corporation has launched an offering of A$300 million senior unsecured convertible notes due 2032, with the securities to be listed on the Singapore Exchange and convertible into cash or fully paid ordinary shares at the company’s e...
New Hope to List 401,296 New Shares from Dividend Plan on ASX
Apr 15, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has applied for the quotation of 401,296 new fully paid ordinary shares on the ASX, with an issue date of April 20, 2026. The securities are being issued under a dividend or distribution plan, marginally increasing the...
New Hope Updates DRP Pricing for FY2026 Interim Dividend
Apr 14, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has confirmed details of its ordinary interim dividend for the six‑month period ended 31 January 2026, payable on its ordinary fully paid shares. The update specifically revises the Dividend Reinvestment Plan pri...
New Hope Cuts Convertible Note Conversion Price After Extraordinary Dividend
Apr 1, 2026
New Hope Corporation has notified holders of its A$300 million 4.25% senior convertible notes due 2029 of an adjustment to the notes’ conversion terms. Following the declaration of an extraordinary cash dividend of A$0.10 per share payable o...
New Hope Group outlines FY26 half-year results and confirms reserves
Mar 16, 2026
New Hope Group has released a presentation outlining its FY26 half-year results, providing investors with a high-level overview of financial performance and operational metrics in Australian dollars. The company reiterates that some figures are no...
New Hope Corporation Declares AUD 0.10 Interim Dividend for FY2026
Mar 16, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has declared an ordinary interim dividend for the first half of FY2026, payable on its ordinary fully paid shares. The dividend is set at AUD 0.10 per share, reflecting the company’s continued practice of returni...
New Hope profit slumps but dividend and DRP maintained
Mar 16, 2026
New Hope Corporation has reported a sharp downturn in its half-year statutory results for the period to 31 January 2026, with revenue from ordinary activities falling 20.1% to $814.4 million and net profit attributable to members dropping 84% to $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.