New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$4.09B
• Dividend Yield: 8.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: -1.53%
• EPS Growth: -7.57%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,084
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 843,371,770
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,047,693
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,200,483
• PEG Ratio: -1.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$4.01
• Price Target Upside: -17.24% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$5.50 ▲(13.40% Upside)

New Hope Corporation's strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, despite challenges in financial performance and neutral technical indicators. The company’s ability to maintain dividends and manage costs effectively amid market challenges supports a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet

A low debt-to-equity ratio (0.14) and robust equity base provide durable financial flexibility, lowering refinancing and solvency risk. This supports continued dividend capacity, funds organic growth (New Acland ramp-up) and development projects without overreliance on external debt.

High operating margins

Sustained EBIT and EBITDA margins near 36% and 47% reflect structural cost efficiency and strong cash generation from operations. High margins provide a buffer against commodity price cycles and support reinvestment, dividend payouts and capital allocation discipline over the medium term.

Production growth and cash generation

Significant production ramps (ROM +33%) and $571m operating cash flow underpin reliable cash generation and permitted a meaningful dividend. Consistent cash flow from higher volumes strengthens funding for organic expansion and rehabilitation commitments while maintaining shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trend

A persistent revenue decline (-10.71%) alongside a slipping net profit margin signals weakening top-line momentum. If revenue contraction continues, it can erode scale advantages, pressure margins and limit ability to fund growth and sustain dividend levels despite current operational efficiency.

Free cash flow deterioration

A near 50% drop in free cash flow growth materially weakens liquidity and reduces discretionary capacity. Even with healthy operating cash conversion, falling FCF constrains capital expenditure, mine development timelines and dividend sustainability if the trend persists through commodity or operational cycles.

Commodity price and market oversupply risk

Structural exposure to thermal coal prices and market oversupply creates earnings volatility and downside risk. Prolonged low prices can offset production gains, compress margins and impair return on new projects, making long-term cashflow and investment returns highly sensitive to commodity cycles.

New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

New Hope Corporation Limited explores for, develops, produces, and processes coal, and oil and gas properties. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other. The company holds interests in two open cut coal mines that produces thermal coal, which include the New Acland project located in Oakey, Queensland; and the Bengalla mine situated in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. It also holds 849 square kilometers of net oil-producing acreage in nine production projects located in the Cooper-Eromanga Basin. In addition, the company engages in the farming, grazing, and land management activities; and operation of bulk handling facility comprising receiving, storage, and shipping of coal, construction sand and aggregates, chips and pellets, and mineral sands, as well as raw and processed minerals, such as bauxite, manganese, diatomite, etc. Further, it is involved in port operation and handling; logistics; and marketing activities. The company has operations in Japan, China, Taiwan, Chile, Korea, Vietnam, India, Australia, and internationally. New Hope Corporation Limited was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

New Hope Corporation Limited generates revenue through multiple key streams, including the sale of grains such as wheat and barley, livestock products (beef and lamb), and animal feed. The company operates on a revenue model that encompasses both direct sales to consumers and businesses, as well as exports to international markets, leveraging Australia's strong agricultural reputation. Significant partnerships with local farmers and agricultural cooperatives allow NHC to secure quality inputs and enhance supply chain efficiency. Additionally, the company may benefit from government agricultural subsidies and incentives aimed at promoting sustainable farming practices, further contributing to its earnings.

New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

New Hope Corporation shows operational efficiency with strong margins and a solid balance sheet. However, declining revenue and free cash flow growth present challenges that need to be addressed to sustain long-term profitability and liquidity.

Income Statement

New Hope Corporation's income statement shows a decline in revenue and profitability over the past year, with a revenue growth rate of -10.71% and a decrease in net profit margin to 25.10%. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy EBIT margin of 35.97% and EBITDA margin of 46.88%, indicating operational efficiency. However, the declining revenue trend poses a risk to future profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, suggesting financial stability. The return on equity is solid at 16.72%, although it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio remains robust, indicating a well-capitalized company. Overall, the balance sheet is a strength for New Hope Corporation, though the declining ROE warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -47.10%, which is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.16, indicating good cash conversion. However, the drop in free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity challenges if the trend continues. The company needs to address this decline to maintain financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.80B	1.75B	1.77B	2.70B	2.54B	1.04B
Gross Profit	847.94M	801.96M	859.09M	1.74B	1.55B	375.48M
EBITDA	820.73M	820.73M	873.83M	1.70B	1.57B	286.75M
Net Income	439.37M	439.37M	475.86M	1.09B	983.01M	79.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.54B	3.54B	3.47B	3.24B	3.43B	2.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	707.28M	707.28M	824.52M	730.65M	815.71M	424.66M
Total Debt	372.85M	372.85M	372.87M	84.92M	288.52M	597.90M
Total Liabilities	911.04M	911.04M	925.42M	721.90M	1.11B	1.03B
Stockholders Equity	2.63B	2.63B	2.54B	2.52B	2.32B	1.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	266.57M	259.61M	289.66M	1.34B	1.06B	235.40M
Operating Cash Flow	570.80M	570.80M	561.96M	1.52B	1.14B	296.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-505.35M	-505.35M	-508.54M	-98.29M	-222.52M	-42.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-372.75M	-372.75M	-145.40M	-1.41B	-628.13M	98.53M

New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.43, above the 50-day MA of 4.14, and above the 200-day MA of 4.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.58 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NHC.

New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YAL	73 Outperform	AU$8.32B	7.95	11.04%	11.73%	-8.45%	-24.30%
NHC	71 Outperform	AU$4.09B	8.82	17.04%	8.48%	-1.53%	-7.57%
WHC	67 Neutral	AU$7.83B	11.45	11.40%	1.92%	52.51%	82.60%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SMR	63 Neutral	AU$2.73B	690.70	0.15%	7.32%	-18.98%	-99.05%
BRL	50 Neutral	AU$161.98M	27.78	1.34%	―	-5.47%	-86.96%
CRN	50 Neutral	AU$695.73M	-1.33	-36.13%	4.79%	-23.91%	-352.91%

New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events

New Hope Issues 50,265 New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities

New Hope Corporation Limited has notified the market of the issue of 50,265 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The move slightly increases the company’s share capital and reflects the utilisation of existing equity incentive or financing instruments, resulting in modest dilution for existing shareholders but signalling the crystallisation of value from prior unquoted securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Amends Constitution Following Shareholder Approval

New Hope Corporation Limited announced that its shareholders have approved amendments to the company’s constitution during the Annual General Meeting held on November 20, 2025. This change reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to adapt its governance structure, potentially impacting its operational flexibility and strategic direction, which could have implications for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation’s AGM Resolutions Passed with Strong Support

New Hope Corporation Limited held its Annual General Meeting on November 20, 2025, where shareholders voted on several resolutions. All resolutions, including the re-election of directors and amendments to the company’s constitution, were carried with significant support. This outcome reflects strong shareholder confidence in the company’s strategic direction and governance, potentially reinforcing its position in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Reports Strong Growth and Community Commitment at 2025 AGM

At its 2025 Annual General Meeting, New Hope Corporation Limited announced a substantial increase in coal production, achieving 10.7 million tonnes, an 18% rise from the previous year. This growth, alongside disciplined cost control, resulted in strong earnings and shareholder returns, including A$347 million in fully franked dividends. The company also emphasized its commitment to local communities, contributing over A$450 million in wages, supplier payments, and other benefits. Additionally, New Hope initiated an on-market share buy-back and introduced a Dividend Reinvestment Plan to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Reports Increased Coal Production and Improved Financial Performance

New Hope Corporation Limited reported a 7.1% increase in saleable coal production for the quarter, driven by improved logistics and favorable weather conditions. The company achieved an average realized sales price of $136.6 per tonne, with underlying EBITDA rising by 15.5% due to increased coal sales. The Bengalla Mine reduced its cash cost per sales tonne by 18.2%, and the company declared a fully franked dividend of 15.0 cents per share, totaling $126.4 million. Despite a rise in the All-Injury Frequency Rate, the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate improved, reflecting ongoing safety performance monitoring.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation to Release FY26 Q1 Report

New Hope Corporation Limited, a company listed on the ASX, has announced that it will release its Quarterly Activities Report for the quarter ending 31 October 2025 on 17 November 2025. The report will be discussed in a webcast hosted by the CEO, Rob Bishop, and the Executive Leadership Team, providing insights into the company’s performance and allowing for investor and analyst engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates AGM Resolutions Amidst Technological Considerations

New Hope Corporation Limited has issued a Supplementary Notice of Meeting for its 2025 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for November 20, 2025. This notice introduces changes to the originally proposed resolution 6 and adds a new resolution 7, both concerning amendments to the company’s constitution. These changes are in response to feedback from proxy advisors about the use of technology for hybrid or virtual-only meetings. The board intends to continue holding in-person meetings and will only consider virtual-only meetings in exceptional circumstances.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.