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New Hope Corporation Limited (AU:NHC)
ASX:NHC
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New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:NHC

New Hope Corporation Limited

(Sydney:NHC)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
▲(12.22% Upside)
New Hope Corporation's strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, despite challenges in financial performance and neutral technical indicators. The company’s ability to maintain dividends and manage costs effectively amid market challenges supports a positive outlook.

New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNew Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) is a diversified agricultural company based in Australia, primarily engaged in the production and export of high-quality agricultural products, with a strong focus on the grain and livestock sectors. The company operates across various segments, including the cultivation of grains, livestock farming, and feedlot operations, as well as engaging in trading and supply chain management of agricultural goods. NHC is committed to sustainable practices and innovation in agriculture, aiming to meet the growing global demand for food while enhancing environmental stewardship.
How the Company Makes MoneyNew Hope Corporation Limited generates revenue through multiple key streams, including the sale of grains such as wheat and barley, livestock products (beef and lamb), and animal feed. The company operates on a revenue model that encompasses both direct sales to consumers and businesses, as well as exports to international markets, leveraging Australia's strong agricultural reputation. Significant partnerships with local farmers and agricultural cooperatives allow NHC to secure quality inputs and enhance supply chain efficiency. Additionally, the company may benefit from government agricultural subsidies and incentives aimed at promoting sustainable farming practices, further contributing to its earnings.

New Hope Corporation Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 15, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong operational and financial performance with significant increases in coal production and improved safety metrics, despite challenges posed by weather, logistics, and a declining coal price. The company continues to provide substantial shareholder returns through dividends.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Coal Production
Run-of-mine coal production increased by 33% to 16.4 million tonnes, saleable coal production rose by 18% to 10.7 million tonnes, and coal sales increased by 21% to 10.5 million tonnes despite challenging conditions.
Improved Safety Metrics
The 12-month moving average TRIFR decreased by 35% to 3.22, marking a significant improvement in safety.
Strong Financial Performance
The company reported an underlying EBITDA of $766 million and a statutory net profit after tax of $439 million.
Significant Dividend Payout
A fully franked final dividend of $0.15 per share was declared, bringing total dividends for FY '25 to $0.34 per share, with a gross dividend yield of 12%.
Positive Community Impact
Rehabilitated 36% of disturbed land for mining operations, with most of the land used for agricultural purposes post-rehabilitation.
Negative Updates
Challenges Due to Weather and Logistics
Significant weather events and logistics constraints led to elevated shipping queues, increased rail cancellations, and stock management challenges.
Coal Price Decline
The Newcastle export coal price hit a 4-year low, impacting earnings despite a strong operational performance.
Market Oversupply and Economic Uncertainty
The thermal coal market faced oversupply and economic uncertainty, leading to a softening in coal prices.
Company Guidance
During the call, New Hope Group provided a comprehensive overview of its performance and strategic guidance for the 2025 financial year. The company reported a 33% increase in run-of-mine coal production to 16.4 million tonnes and an 18% rise in saleable coal production to 10.7 million tonnes. Despite coal prices reaching a four-year low, the group achieved a statutory net profit after tax of $439 million and an underlying EBITDA of $766 million. Safety metrics improved significantly, with the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) decreasing by 35% to 3.22. Financially, New Hope generated $571 million in cash flow from operating activities, enabling it to declare a fully franked final dividend of $0.15 per share, bringing the total for FY '25 to $0.34 per share. The group maintained a focus on cost management, achieving a group FOB cash cost improvement of 8% to $82.40 per sales tonne. Looking ahead, New Hope aims to continue its organic growth with the ramp-up of the New Acland mine and the development of Malabar's Maxwell Underground mine, targeting a significant increase in coal production over the next three years.

New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
New Hope Corporation shows strong operational efficiency and a solid balance sheet with healthy margins. However, declining revenue and free cash flow growth present challenges that need to be addressed to sustain long-term profitability and liquidity.
Income Statement
65
Positive
New Hope Corporation's income statement shows a decline in revenue and profitability over the past year, with a revenue growth rate of -10.71% and a decrease in net profit margin to 25.10%. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy EBIT margin of 35.97% and EBITDA margin of 46.88%, indicating operational efficiency. However, the declining revenue trend poses a risk to future profitability.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, suggesting financial stability. The return on equity is solid at 16.72%, although it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio remains robust, indicating a well-capitalized company. Overall, the balance sheet is a strength for New Hope Corporation, though the declining ROE warrants attention.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -47.10%, which is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.16, indicating good cash conversion. However, the drop in free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity challenges if the trend continues. The company needs to address this decline to maintain financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.96B1.75B1.77B2.70B2.54B1.04B
Gross Profit990.21M801.96M859.09M1.74B1.55B375.48M
EBITDA900.34M820.73M873.83M1.70B1.57B286.75M
Net Income564.49M439.37M475.86M1.09B983.01M79.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.54B3.54B3.47B3.24B3.43B2.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments807.27M707.28M824.52M730.65M815.71M424.66M
Total Debt361.19M372.85M372.87M84.92M288.52M597.90M
Total Liabilities881.03M911.04M925.42M721.90M1.11B1.03B
Stockholders Equity2.66B2.63B2.54B2.52B2.32B1.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow490.77M259.61M289.66M1.34B1.06B235.40M
Operating Cash Flow748.25M570.80M561.96M1.52B1.14B296.06M
Investing Cash Flow-551.96M-505.35M-508.54M-98.29M-222.52M-42.76M
Financing Cash Flow-83.08M-372.75M-145.40M-1.41B-628.13M98.53M

New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4.01
Price Trends
50DMA
4.08
Negative
100DMA
4.03
Negative
200DMA
3.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Negative
RSI
51.73
Neutral
STOCH
75.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.94, below the 50-day MA of 4.08, and above the 200-day MA of 3.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NHC.

New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$5.80B8.7211.40%2.13%52.51%82.60%
$7.33B7.3811.04%10.49%-8.45%-24.30%
$3.38B7.6717.04%8.48%-1.53%-7.57%
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
AU$1.90B490.700.15%8.42%-18.98%-99.05%
AU$153.58M26.341.34%-5.47%-86.96%
AU$645.43M-28.58%5.62%-23.26%-1008.87%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
4.01
-0.47
-10.45%
AU:BRL
Bathurst Resources Ltd
0.64
-0.08
-11.72%
AU:WHC
Whitehaven Coal Limited
7.04
0.40
5.99%
AU:YAL
Yancoal Australia
5.55
-0.34
-5.79%
AU:SMR
Stanmore Resources Ltd
2.06
-0.95
-31.56%
AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.29
-0.71
-71.00%

New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events

New Hope Corporation Limited Announces 2025 AGM
Oct 16, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for November 20, 2025, where the CEO and Board of Directors will update shareholders on the company’s performance and future strategy. Key agenda items include the adoption of the Remuneration Report, re-election of Non-Executive Directors, approval of the Rights Plan, and amendments to the company’s constitution, which are crucial for the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities
Oct 3, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited announced the application for quotation of 570,978 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), with an issue date of October 8, 2025. This move is part of a dividend or distribution plan, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance shareholder value and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Sell with a A$3.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates FY2025 Dividend Announcement
Oct 2, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update to its previous dividend distribution announcement for the fiscal year 2025. The update pertains to the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) price, reflecting changes in the ordinary final dividend for the year ending July 31, 2025. This announcement may impact shareholders and stakeholders by providing updated financial information relevant to their investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Sell with a A$3.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

Director’s Interest Update at New Hope Corporation
Sep 23, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically concerning Robert Dobson Millner AO. The change involves an acquisition of 25,000 ordinary shares through an on-market trade, increasing Millner’s indirect interest in the company to 6,043,215 shares. This update reflects the director’s ongoing investment activities and could indicate confidence in the company’s future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Limited Announces Cessation of Securities
Sep 19, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited announced the cessation of 104,516 performance rights due to unmet conditions, effective September 15, 2025. This cessation may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting on the company’s operational adjustments and strategic focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corp Shines in Earnings Call Amid Challenges
Sep 18, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited recently held its earnings call, revealing a strong operational and financial performance. Despite facing challenges such as adverse weather conditions, logistical issues, and a declining coal price, the company reported significant increases in coal production and improved safety metrics. Additionally, New Hope continues to provide substantial shareholder returns through dividends, reflecting a positive sentiment overall.

New Hope Corporation Reports Strong Coal Production Amid Challenges
Sep 16, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited is an Australian coal producer with additional operations in oil, gas, and agriculture, focusing on responsible and efficient management of its assets. In its latest earnings report, New Hope Corporation highlighted a significant increase in coal production and sales, despite facing challenges such as adverse weather and logistics disruptions. The company reported a net profit after tax of $439 million, an 8% decrease from the previous year, attributed to lower coal prices. However, coal sales increased by 21% to 10.5 million tonnes, driven by the ramp-up of operations at New Acland Mine. The company’s underlying EBITDA was $766 million, reflecting an 11% decrease, while cash flow from operations saw a slight increase to $571 million. Looking forward, New Hope Corporation remains optimistic about the demand for thermal coal and plans to continue its focus on disciplined capital management and organic growth opportunities to provide valuable returns to shareholders.

New Hope Corporation Addresses Technical Issues in FY25 Results Presentation
Sep 16, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited experienced technical difficulties during its 2025 full year results presentation, preventing some participants from accessing the live stream. The company has made a full recording of the presentation available on its website to ensure stakeholders can access the information.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Reports 2025 Petroleum Reserves and Resources
Sep 16, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced its 2025 assessment of petroleum reserves and contingent resources through Bridgeport Energy Pty Limited. The company reported net 2P reserves of 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent and 2C resources of 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent. Bridgeport’s operations include producing oil interests in Queensland, with sales priced at a premium to dated Brent under agreements with IOR and Santos. This assessment highlights the company’s strategic positioning in the domestic market, with all operated production sold within Queensland.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Issues Performance Rights to Employees
Sep 15, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited announced the issuance of 1,271,129 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are not intended for public trading on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to motivate and retain key personnel, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Releases FY25 Full-Year Results
Sep 15, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has released its FY25 full-year results, highlighting the company’s performance and resource estimates. The announcement provides insights into the company’s operations and market positioning, with a focus on coal and petroleum reserves, although it contains forward-looking statements and non-IFRS financial measures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Reports Strong FY25 Results and Introduces Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Sep 15, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has reported a strong operational performance for the 2025 financial year, with an 18.1% increase in saleable coal production, reaching 10.7 million tonnes. Despite challenges such as weather events and logistics constraints, the company reduced its unit production costs and declared a fully franked final dividend of 15.0 cents per share. Additionally, New Hope has introduced a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, offering shareholders the option to reinvest dividends into additional shares, aligning with its strategy to provide continued shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Sep 15, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has released its corporate governance statement for the financial year ending July 31, 2025. The statement, approved by the board and available on the company’s website, outlines the extent to which the company has adhered to the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s recommendations. This release serves to ensure transparency and accountability in the company’s governance practices, which are crucial for maintaining investor confidence and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Updates 2025 Coal Resources and Reserves
Sep 15, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced an update to its Coal Resources and Reserves as of May 31, 2025, following the JORC Code 2012 guidelines. The company reported an increase in resource estimates for the West Muswellbrook deposit due to a new geological model, while resources and reserves for Bengalla and New Acland were adjusted based on depletion. Exploration activities have been conducted at the Bengalla and New Acland sites, with further updates expected in 2026. The announcement underscores the company’s ongoing efforts to refine its resource estimates and enhance its operational capabilities in the coal industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Launches Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Sep 15, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) that allows eligible shareholders to reinvest their dividends into additional shares of the company. The plan is voluntary, with no associated fees or brokerage costs, and is available to shareholders with registered addresses in Australia and New Zealand. This initiative provides shareholders with a flexible option to increase their shareholding, potentially enhancing their investment value and aligning with the company’s strategic goals to maintain shareholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Announces Final Dividend for FY2025
Sep 15, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced a final ordinary dividend of AUD 0.15 per share for the financial year ending July 31, 2025. The dividend will be paid on October 8, 2025, with a record date of September 23, 2025, and an ex-dividend date of September 22, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s financial performance and commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Reports Financial Results and Introduces Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Sep 15, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited reported a slight decrease in revenue and a 7.7% drop in net profit for the fiscal year ending July 2025. The company declared a final dividend of 15.0 cents per share and introduced a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Reports Strong Coal Production Amidst Operational Challenges
Aug 18, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited reported a strong operational performance for the 2025 financial year, with a notable 18.1% increase in saleable coal production compared to the previous year. The company achieved an underlying EBITDA of $765.8 million, although the quarterly EBITDA saw a decline due to logistics constraints and adverse weather conditions affecting sales volumes at the Bengalla Mine. Safety metrics showed improvement, with a decrease in the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to safety.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Limited Issues Performance Rights
Aug 4, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited has announced the issuance of 9,056 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are subject to transfer restrictions and are not listed on the ASX until the restrictions are lifted, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize and retain key personnel.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Corporation Reports Lapse of Performance Rights
Aug 4, 2025

New Hope Corporation Limited announced the cessation of 6,885 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s operations by potentially affecting employee incentives and could influence stakeholder perceptions regarding the company’s ability to meet performance conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 25, 2025