New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$4.21B
• Dividend Yield: 8.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: -1.53%
• EPS Growth: -7.57%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,084
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 843,371,770
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,047,693
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,200,483
• PEG Ratio: -1.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$4.24
• Price Target Upside: -16.44% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$1.62B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$5.50 ▲(8.27% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/25/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/25/25

New Hope Corporation's strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, despite challenges in financial performance and neutral technical indicators. The company’s ability to maintain dividends and manage costs effectively amid market challenges supports a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet / low leverage

A low debt-to-equity ratio and robust equity base give the company financial flexibility to fund operations, invest in mine ramps and endure cyclical commodity downturns. This capital strength supports durable dividend policy and reduces refinancing risk over a multi-quarter horizon.

High operating margins and efficiency

Sustained high EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect structural cost competitiveness and efficient operations. These margins provide buffer against price volatility, support internal cash generation for reinvestment, and underpin the company's ability to maintain payouts and fund growth over several quarters.

Rising production and strong operating cash flow

Significant volume growth and robust operating cash flow support durable revenue base and funding for organic expansion (New Acland ramp, Maxwell development). Consistent cash generation enabled substantial dividends and provides runway for multi-year production scaling and capital allocation.

Negative Factors

Sharp free cash flow decline

A near 50% drop in free cash flow is a structural red flag: it reduces financial flexibility for capex, dividends and mine development. If persistent, this trend can force tougher capital allocation choices, higher leverage or curtailed shareholder returns over the coming quarters.

Falling revenue and weakening profitability trends

Declining revenue undermines operating leverage and can erode margins over time despite current high margin ratios. Continued top-line contraction combined with a decreasing ROE signals demand, pricing or contract pressures that could impair sustainable profit generation across the business.

Commodity-price & market oversupply exposure

Heavy exposure to thermal coal means earnings and cash flows remain sensitive to structural market oversupply and price cycles. Prolonged weak pricing can offset production gains, compress margins and limit the company's ability to convert volumes into durable free cash flow and returns.

New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

New Hope Corporation Limited explores for, develops, produces, and processes coal, and oil and gas properties. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other. The company holds interests in two open cut coal mines that produces thermal coal, which include the New Acland project located in Oakey, Queensland; and the Bengalla mine situated in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. It also holds 849 square kilometers of net oil-producing acreage in nine production projects located in the Cooper-Eromanga Basin. In addition, the company engages in the farming, grazing, and land management activities; and operation of bulk handling facility comprising receiving, storage, and shipping of coal, construction sand and aggregates, chips and pellets, and mineral sands, as well as raw and processed minerals, such as bauxite, manganese, diatomite, etc. Further, it is involved in port operation and handling; logistics; and marketing activities. The company has operations in Japan, China, Taiwan, Chile, Korea, Vietnam, India, Australia, and internationally. New Hope Corporation Limited was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

New Hope Corporation Limited generates revenue through multiple key streams, including the sale of grains such as wheat and barley, livestock products (beef and lamb), and animal feed. The company operates on a revenue model that encompasses both direct sales to consumers and businesses, as well as exports to international markets, leveraging Australia's strong agricultural reputation. Significant partnerships with local farmers and agricultural cooperatives allow NHC to secure quality inputs and enhance supply chain efficiency. Additionally, the company may benefit from government agricultural subsidies and incentives aimed at promoting sustainable farming practices, further contributing to its earnings.

New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

New Hope Corporation shows operational efficiency with strong margins and a solid balance sheet. However, declining revenue and free cash flow growth present challenges that need to be addressed to sustain long-term profitability and liquidity.

Income Statement

New Hope Corporation's income statement shows a decline in revenue and profitability over the past year, with a revenue growth rate of -10.71% and a decrease in net profit margin to 25.10%. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy EBIT margin of 35.97% and EBITDA margin of 46.88%, indicating operational efficiency. However, the declining revenue trend poses a risk to future profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, suggesting financial stability. The return on equity is solid at 16.72%, although it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio remains robust, indicating a well-capitalized company. Overall, the balance sheet is a strength for New Hope Corporation, though the declining ROE warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -47.10%, which is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.16, indicating good cash conversion. However, the drop in free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity challenges if the trend continues. The company needs to address this decline to maintain financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Jul 2025	Jul 2024	Jul 2023	Jul 2022	Jul 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.75B	1.77B	2.70B	2.54B	1.04B
Gross Profit	801.96M	859.09M	1.74B	1.55B	375.48M
EBITDA	820.73M	873.83M	1.70B	1.57B	286.75M
Net Income	439.37M	475.86M	1.09B	983.01M	79.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.54B	3.47B	3.24B	3.43B	2.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	707.28M	824.52M	730.65M	815.71M	424.66M
Total Debt	372.85M	372.87M	84.92M	288.52M	597.90M
Total Liabilities	911.04M	925.42M	721.90M	1.11B	1.03B
Stockholders Equity	2.63B	2.54B	2.52B	2.32B	1.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	259.61M	289.66M	1.34B	1.06B	235.40M
Operating Cash Flow	570.80M	561.96M	1.52B	1.14B	296.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-505.35M	-508.54M	-98.29M	-222.52M	-42.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-372.75M	-145.40M	-1.41B	-628.13M	98.53M

New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.08
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.77, above the 50-day MA of 4.50, and above the 200-day MA of 4.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NHC.

New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YAL	76 Outperform	$8.37B	14.86	11.04%	11.73%	-8.45%	-24.30%
NHC	71 Outperform	AU$4.21B	8.03	17.04%	8.48%	-1.53%	-7.57%
WHC	66 Neutral	AU$7.13B	23.23	11.40%	1.92%	52.51%	82.60%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SMR	61 Neutral	AU$2.63B	-28.57	0.15%	7.32%	-18.98%	-99.05%
BRL	50 Neutral	AU$146.43M	-13.68	1.34%	―	-5.47%	-86.96%
CRN	44 Neutral	AU$586.76M	-0.80	-36.13%	4.79%	-23.91%	-352.91%

New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events

New Hope Extends On-Market Share Buy-Back for Another Year

New Hope Corporation Limited has updated the market on its existing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares listed on the ASX under the code NHC. The company confirmed that the buy-back remains focused on its ordinary equity securities as part of its ongoing capital management strategy.

The company has extended the duration of its on-market buy-back for a further period of up to 12 months, with all other terms unchanged from those previously announced. This extension signals a continued commitment to active balance sheet management, with potential implications for share liquidity, earnings per share accretion, and overall returns to shareholders over the extended period.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Extends Flexible On-Market Share Buyback to 2027

New Hope Corporation has extended its existing on-market share buyback program until 2 March 2027, continuing a capital management strategy aimed at enhancing shareholder value through active adjustment of its capital base. The program, conducted in the ordinary course of ASX trading and within the Corporations Act 10/12 limit, will see any repurchased shares immediately cancelled and does not require shareholder approval.

The continuation and scale of the buyback remain discretionary and contingent on factors such as the company’s share price, market conditions, future capital needs and unforeseen developments, meaning there is no guarantee on the volume of shares to be repurchased. The company has reserved the right to suspend or terminate the program at any time and will provide daily buyback notifications as required under ASX listing rules, underscoring a flexible and opportunistic approach to capital deployment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope sets date for FY26 Q2 results and investor webcast

New Hope Corporation will release its quarterly activities report for the period ending 31 January 2026 on 16 February 2026, outlining operational and financial performance for the second quarter of FY26. The company’s CEO Rob Bishop and members of the executive leadership team will host a webcast investor and analyst call that morning to discuss the results, address questions, and later publish a transcript on its website, underscoring New Hope’s ongoing investor engagement and disclosure practices.

The webcast, scheduled for 10:00am AEST (11:00am AEDT), requires advance online registration, with participants asked to log in at least five minutes before the start time. By formalising these communication arrangements, New Hope aims to provide transparent, real-time insight into its quarterly performance, which may help investors and analysts better assess the company’s operational momentum and outlook within the resources sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.

New Hope Issues 50,265 New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities

New Hope Corporation Limited has notified the market of the issue of 50,265 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The move slightly increases the company’s share capital and reflects the utilisation of existing equity incentive or financing instruments, resulting in modest dilution for existing shareholders but signalling the crystallisation of value from prior unquoted securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NHC) stock is a Hold with a A$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Hope Corporation Limited stock, see the AU:NHC Stock Forecast page.